Nantes v Nice — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 25 January 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
20 – 7
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
14 – 4
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.23
Set-piece xG
1.22 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-1.00 – +2.39
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nantes win
34.3%
Draw
21.9%
Nice win
43.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nantes are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDDLLWLD last 10
scored 7
from 12.7 xG
conceded 11
from 13.9 xG
Nice are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDDDLDDLD last 10
scored 6
from 11.6 xG
conceded 12
from 17.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.31–1.51 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.34–1.51 | 1-1 12% | 54% | 58% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nantes 2.00 xGNice 1.61 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nantes attacking right
Nice attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11' |
 Nantes |
Mostafa Mohamed | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kelvin Adou |
| 15' |
 Nice |
Mohamed Ali-Cho | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jonathan Clauss |
| 17' |
Nantes |
Junior Mwanga | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mostafa Mohamed |
| 27' |
Nice |
Sofiane Diop | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sepe Elye Wahi |
| 28' |
Nice |
Mohamed Ali-Cho | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Morgan Sanson |
| 36' |
Nantes |
Kelvin Adou | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Rémy Cabella |
| 36' |
Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Johann Lepenant |
| 39' |
Nice |
Sofiane Diop | 0.54 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 43' |
Nantes |
Johann Lepenant | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 44' |
Nantes |
Rémy Cabella | 0.25 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Junior Mwanga |
| 46' |
Nantes |
Mostafa Mohamed | 0.62 | From Corner | — | Goal | Chidozie Awaziem |
| 49' |
Nantes |
Chidozie Awaziem | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Rémy Cabella |
| 49' |
Nice |
Sepe Elye Wahi | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mohamed Ali-Cho |
| 65' |
Nantes |
Mostafa Mohamed | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Rémy Cabella |
| 66' |
Nantes |
Tylel Tati | 0.42 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Mostafa Mohamed |
| 70' |
Nantes |
Ibrahima Sissoko | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 73' |
Nantes |
Mostafa Mohamed | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Johann Lepenant |
| 76' |
Nantes |
Ibrahima Sissoko | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 76' |
Nantes |
Junior Mwanga | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 77' |
Nantes |
Johann Lepenant | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kelvin Adou |
| 77' |
Nantes |
Mostafa Mohamed | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Nicolas Cozza |
| 81' |
Nantes |
Kelvin Adou | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Junior Mwanga |
| 84' |
Nice |
Mohamed Ali-Cho | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jonathan Clauss |
| 85' |
Nantes |
Bahmed Deuff | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 87' |
Nantes |
Mostafa Mohamed | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Youssef El-Arabi |
| 87' |
Nantes |
Youssef El-Arabi | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 92' |
Nice |
Tom Louchet | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Tanguy NDombele Alvaro |
Players
Nice
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Ali-Cho AMR | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.88 | 0.10 | 0.97 |
| Ali Abdi DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Jonathan Clauss DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 0.53 |
| Juma Bah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Kojo Peprah Oppong DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Maxime Dupé GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Morgan Sanson AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| Salis Abdul Samed DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Charles Vanhoutte DMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Sofiane Diop AML | 75 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.96 |
| Sepe Elye Wahi FW | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| Tom Louchet Sub | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Tiago Gouveia Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Dante Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gabin Bernardeau Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tanguy NDombele Alvaro Sub | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
Nantes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mostafa Mohamed FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0.86 | 0.46 | 0.23 |
| Tylel Tati DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Rémy Cabella MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.13 | 0.31 |
| Junior Mwanga MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| Kelvin Adou DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.38 |
| Johann Lepenant FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.36 |
| Chidozie Awaziem DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.62 | 0.25 |
| Matthis Abline FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Anthony Lopes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolas Cozza DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Ibrahima Sissoko MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Bahmed Deuff Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Youssef El-Arabi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.14 | 0.22 |