Nantes v Paris FC — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 18 January 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526

Ligue 1 xG Prediction generated 27 Oct 2026, 06:02 UTC

Nantes

1–2

0.41 – 0.74 xG

Paris FC

Shots

5 – 10

On target

1 – 3

Shots in box

2 – 5

xG per shot

0.08 – 0.07

Set-piece xG

0.06 – 0.09

Goals − xG

+0.59 – +1.26

AI prediction

ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Nantes win

42.5%

Draw

22.9%

Paris FC win

34.5%

432335

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Nantes are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LLDDDLLWLD last 10 scored 7 from 12.7 xG conceded 11 from 13.9 xG

Paris FC are finishing below their chances — 2.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.1 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

LWDWWDWLWL last 10 scored 16 from 18.0 xG conceded 12 from 9.9 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend-oos	432335	1.39–1.22	0%	0%	0%	Home ✗
dc-xg-oos	422533	1.53–1.34	1-1 12%	55%	58%	Home ✗

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Nantes 0.41 xGParis FC 0.74 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Nantes attacking right Paris FC attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
5'	Paris FC	Ilan Kebbal	0.06	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	—
5'	Paris FC	Timothée Kolodziejczak	0.04	From Corner	—	Saved Shot	Nhoa Sangui
16'	Paris FC	Maxime Lopez	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Adama Camara
18'	Paris FC	Ilan Kebbal	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Hamari Traore
23'	Paris FC	Alimami Gory	0.02	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Nhoa Sangui
29'	Nantes	Matthis Abline	0.06	Direct Freekick	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
43'	Nantes	Ibrahima Sissoko	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Rémy Cabella
44'	Nantes	Johann Lepenant	0.08	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Matthis Abline
49'	Nantes	Matthis Abline	0.24	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Junior Mwanga
57'	Paris FC	Hamari Traore	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Jean-Phillipe Krasso
62'	Paris FC	Ilan Kebbal	0.02	Set Piece	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	—
77'	Paris FC	Luca Koleosho	0.48	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Hamari Traore
82'	Paris FC	Jean-Phillipe Krasso	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Mamadou Mbow
83'	Paris FC	Vincent Marchetti	0.02	Set Piece	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Nhoa Sangui
91'	Nantes	Amady Camara	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Rémy Cabella

Players

Nantes

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Matthis Abline FWR	90	1	0	2	1	0.29	0.08	0.32
Tylel Tati DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.32
Anthony Lopes GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.08
Rémy Cabella FWL	90	0	0	0	2	0.00	0.03	0.27
Nicolas Cozza DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.08
Kelvin Adou DMR	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.32
Junior Mwanga MC	90	0	1	0	1	0.00	0.24	0.34
Ibrahima Sissoko DC	87	0	0	1	0	0.02	0.00	0.25
Johann Lepenant Sub	73	0	0	1	0	0.08	0.00	0.08
Francis Coquelin MC	70	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.08
Youssef El-Arabi FW	70	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Ignatius Ganago Sub	20	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Bahereba Guirassy Sub	20	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Deiver Machado DML	17	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Amady Camara Sub	3	0	0	1	0	0.02	0.00	0.02

Paris FC

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Ilan Kebbal MR	90	1	0	3	0	0.10	0.00	0.59
Timothée Kolodziejczak DC	90	0	0	1	0	0.04	0.00	0.04
Maxime Lopez MC	90	0	0	1	0	0.04	0.00	0.52
Hamari Traore DR	90	0	1	1	2	0.02	0.50	0.56
Jean-Phillipe Krasso FW	90	0	0	1	1	0.02	0.02	0.06
Adama Camara MC	90	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.04	0.06
Nhoa Sangui DL	90	0	0	0	3	0.00	0.08	0.06
Mamadou Mbow DC	90	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.02	0.54
Kevin Trapp GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.04
Otávio DC	86	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.04
Alimami Gory ML	72	0	0	1	0	0.02	0.00	0.06
Luca Koleosho Sub	18	1	0	1	0	0.48	0.00	0.48
Vincent Marchetti Sub	4	0	0	1	0	0.02	0.00	0.00
Marshall Munetsi Sub	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00

Nantes v Paris FC — Prediction, Odds & Stats

AI prediction

What the chances say

What the model said

Expected goals by minute

Shot map

Every shot

Players

Nantes

Paris FC

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