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Nantes v Rennes — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 8 December 2024 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

1–0
1.71 – 0.29 xG
Shots
14 – 5
On target
2 – 3
Shots in box
11 – 3
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.15 – 0.14
Goals − xG
-0.71 – -0.29
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.51.01.41.90'15'30'45'60'75'90'Moses Simon 88' — goal
Nantes 1.71 xGRennes 0.29 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Mikayil Faye 25' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Matthis Abline 27' — Missed Shot (0.33 xG, Open Play)Leo Østigard 29' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Johann Lepenant 37' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Amine Gouiri 39' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Matthis Abline 42' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Amine Gouiri 46' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Matthis Abline 49' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Douglas Augusto 51' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Ludovic Blas 63' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Direct Freekick)Moses Simon 64' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Matthis Abline 67' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Johann Lepenant 70' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Mostafa Mohamed 70' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Nicolas Cozza 72' — Missed Shot (0.62 xG, Open Play)Johann Lepenant 79' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Matthis Abline 79' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, From Corner)Matthis Abline 84' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Moses Simon 88' — Goal (0.05 xG, Open Play)
Nantes attacking right Rennes attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
25' Rennes Mikayil Faye 0.05 From Corner Left Foot Saved Shot Lorenz Assignon
27' Nantes Matthis Abline 0.33 Open Play Missed Shot Nicolas Cozza
29' Rennes Leo Østigard 0.06 From Corner Missed Shot Ludovic Blas
37' Nantes Johann Lepenant 0.07 Open Play Saved Shot Moses Simon
39' Rennes Amine Gouiri 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga
42' Nantes Matthis Abline 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Moses Simon
46' Rennes Amine Gouiri 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Lorenz Assignon
49' Nantes Matthis Abline 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Kelvin Adou
51' Nantes Douglas Augusto 0.01 Set Piece Left Foot Missed Shot Moses Simon
63' Rennes Ludovic Blas 0.04 Direct Freekick Left Foot Saved Shot
64' Nantes Moses Simon 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Johann Lepenant
67' Nantes Matthis Abline 0.04 Open Play Missed Shot Moses Simon
70' Nantes Johann Lepenant 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
70' Nantes Mostafa Mohamed 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Matthis Abline
72' Nantes Nicolas Cozza 0.62 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Matthis Abline
79' Nantes Johann Lepenant 0.05 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot
79' Nantes Matthis Abline 0.09 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot
84' Nantes Matthis Abline 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Douglas Augusto
88' Nantes Moses Simon 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Goal Nicolas Pallois

Players

Rennes

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Leo Østigard DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.07
Ludovic Blas AMC 90 0 0 1 1 0.04 0.06 0.07
Steve Mandanda GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lorenz Assignon DMR 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.12 0.14
Hans Hateboer DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Azor Matusiwa MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga FW 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.14
Adrien Truffert DML 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jordan James MC 80 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.14
Amine Gouiri AMC 56 0 0 2 0 0.14 0.00 0.14
Mikayil Faye DC 48 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.00
Mahamadou Nagida Sub 34 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Christopher Wooh Sub 10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andrés Gómez Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Baptiste Santamaria Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Nantes

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Matthis Abline FW 90 0 0 6 2 0.74 0.73 1.38
Nicolas Cozza DL 90 0 0 1 1 0.62 0.33 1.01
Johann Lepenant MC 90 0 0 3 1 0.15 0.03 0.38
Moses Simon FW 90 1 0 2 4 0.08 0.18 0.69
Douglas Augusto MC 90 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.12 1.34
Nicolas Pallois DC 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.05 1.12
Kelvin Adou DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.11 0.11
Patrik Carlgren GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jean-Charles Castelletto DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.62
Nathan Zeze DC 85 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.33
Pedro Chirivella MC 69 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.24
Mostafa Mohamed Sub 21 0 0 1 0 0.10 0.00 0.10
Sorba Thomas Sub 5 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jean-Philippe Gbamin Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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