Nantes v Stade de Reims — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 10 October 2026 · FRA-Ligue 2 · 2627
FRA-Ligue 2
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (1,523 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-2 9.8%
- 1-1 9.1%
- 0-2 8.8%
- 0-1 7.6%
- 1-3 7.2%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 64.7% | Under 2.5 | 35.3% |
| BTTS yes | 60.2% | BTTS no | 39.8% |
| Nantes 1+ | 67.2% | Nantes 2+ | 30.7% |
| Stade de Reims 1+ | 89.1% | Stade de Reims 2+ | 65.0% |
Expected goals 1.12 – 2.22. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Stade de Reims carry the stronger rating, 1608 Elo against 1360.
- Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- The component models disagree more than usual (agreement 0.88).
Why the model thinks this
The price
Stade de Reims have an estimated 59.2% win probability, against 22.5% for the draw and 18.3% for Nantes. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.12 for Nantes and 2.22 for Stade de Reims.
Why Nantes
Nothing in the data singles out Nantes.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 22.5%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.
Why Stade de Reims can win
Stade de Reims carry the stronger rating, 1608 Elo against 1360. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.
Key players
Nantes's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Matthis Abline (0.37), Ignatius Ganago (0.27), Mohamed Kaba (0.22).
Availability
No lineup on record for Stade de Reims, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Nantes: 57% possession, 12.4 shots a match, 10.8 faced, 0.46 xG a match from set pieces. Stade de Reims: 51% possession, 12.2 shots a match, 9.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Stade de Reims are the model's most likely outcome at 59.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-2 at 9.8%. Confidence 71/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nantes are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 1.18–2.62 | 1-2 9% | 73% | 64% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.