Nantes v Toulouse — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 17 May 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nantes are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
Toulouse are finishing below their chances — 3.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.11–1.21 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.18–1.24 | 1-1 13% | 43% | 49% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Expected goals by minute
Reading the shot map
Shot map
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11' |
 Toulouse |
Santiago Hidalgo | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pape Diop |
| 14' |
Toulouse |
Yann Gboho | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dayann Methalie |
| 15' |
 Nantes |
Rémy Cabella | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ignatius Ganago |
| 16' |
Nantes |
Sékou Doucouré | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Rémy Cabella |
Players
Toulouse
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Hidalgo AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Yann Gboho AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Cristian Cásseres Jr. MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Seny Koumbassa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Rasmus Nicolaisen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Pape Diop MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Mark McKenzie DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Guillaume Restes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Emersonn FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Djibril Sidibe DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dayann Methalie DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.32 |
Nantes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rémy Cabella MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Sékou Doucouré DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Chidozie Awaziem DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolas Cozza DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mohamed Kaba MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Matthis Abline FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Mathieu Acapandié DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Johann Lepenant MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Ignatius Ganago FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Ibrahima Sissoko DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anthony Lopes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |