Napoli v AC Milan — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 6 April 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 7
On target
3 – 1
Shots in box
7 – 5
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.15 – 0.60
Goals − xG
+0.13 – -0.81
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Napoli win
34.1%
Draw
27.4%
AC Milan win
38.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Napoli are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLWDLWWWLL last 10
scored 16
from 14.6 xG
conceded 11
from 13.3 xG
AC Milan are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWDLLWLWWD last 10
scored 11
from 14.0 xG
conceded 13
from 15.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.24–1.33 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.42–1.21 | 1-1 12% | 49% | 53% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Napoli 0.87 xGAC Milan 0.81 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Napoli attacking right
AC Milan attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 AC Milan |
Youssouf Fofana | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Christopher Nkunku |
| 12' |
AC Milan |
Strahinja Pavlovic | 0.50 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Davide Bartesaghi |
| 22' |
 Napoli |
Leonardo Spinazzola | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Stanislav Lobotka |
| 34' |
AC Milan |
Christopher Nkunku | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Youssouf Fofana |
| 35' |
Napoli |
Giovane | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mathías Olivera |
| 36' |
Napoli |
Alessandro Buongiorno | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Kevin De Bruyne |
| 44' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Stanislav Lobotka |
| 50' |
Napoli |
Giovane | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kevin De Bruyne |
| 51' |
Napoli |
Stanislav Lobotka | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 53' |
Napoli |
Mathías Olivera | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 56' |
Napoli |
Franck Zambo | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Leonardo Spinazzola |
| 65' |
AC Milan |
Zachary Athekame | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 71' |
Napoli |
Franck Zambo | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 78' |
Napoli |
Matteo Politano | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 82' |
AC Milan |
Strahinja Pavlovic | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Luka Modric |
| 85' |
AC Milan |
Santiago Giménez | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Zachary Athekame |
| 89' |
AC Milan |
Rafael Leão | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Christian Pulisic |
Players
AC Milan
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strahinja Pavlovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Mike Maignan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luka Modric MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| Koni de Winter DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Davide Bartesaghi DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.13 |
| Adrien Rabiot MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Youssouf Fofana MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Fikayo Tomori DC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christopher Nkunku FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| Niclas Füllkrug FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alexis Saelemaekers DMR | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Zachary Athekame Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| Santiago Giménez Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Christian Pulisic Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Rafael Leão Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
Napoli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franck Zambo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Scott McTominay AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Alessandro Buongiorno DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Mathías Olivera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.27 |
| Stanislav Lobotka MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| Miguel Gutiérrez DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Vanja Milinkovic-Savic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kevin De Bruyne AMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.19 |
| Juan Jesus DC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Leonardo Spinazzola DML | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.27 |
| Giovane FW | 70 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Alisson Santos Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matteo Politano Sub | 16 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Sam Beukema Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Eljif Elmas Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |