Napoli v AC Milan — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 December 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Napoli

14:00 UTC

AC Milan

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 22 Oct, 10:58 · 1,251h before kick-off

Napoli win

43.2%

model 41.7%

Draw

27.3%

model 25.5%

AC Milan win

29.5%

model 32.7%

432730

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.1%
1-0 9.6%
2-1 8.8%
0-1 8.3%
1-2 7.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	51.3%	Under 2.5	48.7%
BTTS yes	55.2%	BTTS no	44.8%
Napoli 1+	76.8%	Napoli 2+	43.0%
AC Milan 1+	71.8%	AC Milan 2+	36.1%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.27. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

90/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

95%

★ Best pick

AC Milan to concede in 1st half

Away clean sheet 1HT · usually 42%

55.5% fair odds 1.80

moderate signal · 847 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

AC Milan not to win to nil

Win to nil · usually 79%

83.2% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1180 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out Napoli.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Napoli have an estimated 43.2% win probability, against 29.5% for AC Milan and 27.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.46 for Napoli and 1.27 for AC Milan.

Why Napoli

Nothing in the data singles out Napoli.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.3%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.46 to 1.27. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why AC Milan can win

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five. Away from home AC Milan average 1.48 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Napoli were missing 1.49 expected goal involvements a match against 0.96.

Key players

Napoli's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Rasmus Højlund (0.42), Scott McTominay (0.38), Kevin De Bruyne (0.35). AC Milan's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Gonçalo Ramos (0.55), Christian Pulisic (0.43), Rafael Leão (0.43).

Availability

2 of Napoli's top three contributors did not start their last match. 1 of AC Milan's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of AC Milan's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Napoli: 56% possession, 16.2 shots a match, 14.8 faced, 0.25 xG a match from set pieces. AC Milan: 60% possession, 10.2 shots a match, 10.0 faced, 0.59 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-22 14:54 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-22 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Napoli are the model's most likely outcome at 43.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.1%. Confidence 90/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Napoli are finishing below their chances — 3.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

LWWWLLWDWL last 10 scored 16 from 19.2 xG conceded 10 from 10.4 xG

AC Milan are conceding fewer than expected — 2.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LWLWWDDWDW last 10 scored 19 from 19.8 xG conceded 13 from 15.9 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	422633	1.46–1.27	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	472627	1.48–1.07	1-1 12%	47%	51%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to win	43.1%	42.9%	40.0%	1.07×	2.33
AC Milan to win	30.5%	30.4%	33.7%	0.90×	3.29
Draw	26.4%	27.9%	26.4%	1.06×	3.58

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli & not both score	24.2%	21.8%	22.6%	0.97×	4.58
Napoli & both teams score	19.0%	18.0%	17.5%	1.02×	5.57
Draw & both teams score	18.6%	18.0%	18.6%	0.96×	5.57
AC Milan & not both score	16.6%	18.0%	20.6%	0.87×	5.57
AC Milan & both teams score	13.8%	13.3%	13.2%	1.00×	7.53
Draw & not both score	7.8%	8.3%	7.9%	1.05×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli & over 1.5	32.1%	30.8%	29.9%	1.03×	3.25
Napoli & under 3.5	31.3%	30.8%	29.6%	1.04×	3.25
Napoli & over 2.5	24.3%	21.6%	23.3%	0.93×	4.63
AC Milan & under 3.5	23.1%	21.6%	26.3%	0.82×	4.63
AC Milan & over 1.5	21.5%	21.6%	24.6%	0.88×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	20.4%	21.6%	19.7%	1.10×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	20.4%	21.6%	19.7%	1.10×	4.63
Napoli & under 2.5	18.8%	18.0%	16.8%	1.07×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	18.6%	18.0%	18.6%	0.97×	5.56
AC Milan & over 2.5	16.5%	18.0%	18.1%	0.99×	5.56
AC Milan & under 2.5	14.0%	12.8%	15.6%	0.82×	7.79
Napoli & over 3.5	11.9%	12.8%	10.6%	1.21×	7.79
Napoli & under 1.5	11.0%	12.8%	10.2%	1.26×	7.79
AC Milan & under 1.5	8.9%	7.9%	9.1%	0.87×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	7.8%	7.9%	7.9%	1.00×	12.63
AC Milan & over 3.5	7.4%	7.9%	7.5%	1.06×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.0%	7.9%	6.9%	1.16×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.0%	7.9%	6.9%	1.16×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (1UP)	58.2%	58.1%	55.3%	1.05×	1.72
AC Milan (1UP)	47.1%	43.9%	50.5%	0.87×	2.28

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (2UP)	43.1%	47.2%	41.8%	1.13×	2.12
AC Milan (2UP)	30.5%	30.3%	36.2%	0.84×	3.30

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	39.4%	36.2%	35.0%	1.03×	2.76
Napoli to win 2nd half	31.8%	34.3%	35.0%	0.98×	2.92
AC Milan to win 2nd half	28.8%	25.8%	30.2%	0.86×	3.88

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan under 1.5 in 2nd half	86.4%	86.7%	85.1%	1.02×	1.15
AC Milan under 0.5 in 2nd half	52.6%	52.6%	50.0%	1.05×	1.90
AC Milan over 0.5 in 2nd half	47.4%	47.4%	50.0%	0.95×	2.11
AC Milan over 1.5 in 2nd half	13.6%	13.3%	14.9%	0.89×	7.54

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 1.5 in 2nd half	84.7%	82.6%	81.5%	1.01×	1.21
Napoli under 0.5 in 2nd half	50.0%	55.0%	46.3%	1.19×	1.82
Napoli over 0.5 in 2nd half	50.0%	45.0%	53.7%	0.84×	2.22
Napoli over 1.5 in 2nd half	15.3%	17.4%	18.5%	0.94×	5.76

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (+2.5)	92.3%	92.1%	92.3%	1.00×	1.09
AC Milan (+1.5)	79.4%	78.5%	82.5%	0.95×	1.27
Napoli (+0.5)	69.5%	68.7%	66.3%	1.04×	1.46
AC Milan (+0.5)	56.9%	57.0%	60.0%	0.95×	1.75
Napoli (-0.5)	43.1%	43.0%	40.0%	1.07×	2.33
AC Milan (-0.5)	30.5%	31.3%	33.7%	0.93×	3.19
Napoli (-1.5)	20.6%	21.5%	17.5%	1.22×	4.65
Napoli (-2.5)	7.7%	7.9%	7.7%	1.03×	12.68

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to concede	75.5%	78.7%	71.6%	1.10×	1.27
AC Milan clean sheet	24.5%	21.3%	28.4%	0.75×	4.70

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to concede in 1st half	51.1%	50.5%	42.1%	1.20×	1.98
AC Milan clean sheet in 1st half	48.9%	49.5%	57.9%	0.85×	2.02

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan clean sheet in 2nd half	50.0%	54.7%	46.3%	1.18×	1.83
AC Milan to concede in 2nd half	50.0%	45.3%	53.7%	0.84×	2.21

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan under 6.5 corners	93.6%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
AC Milan under 5.5 corners	88.0%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
AC Milan under 4.5 corners	78.5%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
AC Milan under 3.5 corners	64.3%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
AC Milan over 2.5 corners	54.4%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
AC Milan under 2.5 corners	45.6%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
AC Milan over 3.5 corners	35.7%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
AC Milan over 4.5 corners	21.5%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
AC Milan over 5.5 corners	12.1%	14.8%	—	—	6.78
AC Milan over 6.5 corners	6.4%	10.1%	—	—	9.91

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan under 3.5 goals	97.1%	97.5%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
AC Milan under 2.5 goals	89.2%	87.8%	88.1%	1.00×	1.14
AC Milan under 1.5 goals	68.5%	68.0%	65.0%	1.05×	1.47
AC Milan over 0.5 goals	68.0%	68.0%	69.6%	0.98×	1.47
AC Milan under 0.5 goals	32.0%	32.0%	30.4%	1.05×	3.13
AC Milan over 1.5 goals	31.5%	32.0%	35.0%	0.91×	3.13
AC Milan over 2.5 goals	10.8%	12.2%	11.9%	1.02×	8.21
AC Milan over 3.5 goals	2.9%	2.5%	2.9%	0.87×	39.89

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan under 1.5 in 1st half	91.1%	93.8%	89.9%	1.04×	1.07
AC Milan under 0.5 in 1st half	60.8%	63.5%	58.8%	1.08×	1.58
AC Milan over 0.5 in 1st half	39.2%	36.5%	41.2%	0.89×	2.74
AC Milan over 1.5 in 1st half	8.9%	6.2%	10.1%	0.61×	16.25

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan scores equally in both	43.1%	43.4%	43.4%	1.00×	2.30
AC Milan scores more in 2nd half	33.2%	33.7%	32.8%	1.03×	2.97
AC Milan scores more in 1st half	23.8%	22.0%	23.9%	0.92×	4.54

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (away no bet)	62.0%	61.9%	60.2%	1.03×	1.62
Draw (away no bet)	38.0%	38.1%	39.8%	0.96×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan even goals	55.1%	56.9%	55.5%	1.03×	1.76
AC Milan odd goals	44.9%	43.1%	44.5%	0.97×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	86.8%	87.9%	87.3%	1.01×	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	13.2%	12.1%	12.7%	0.95×	8.27

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	59.6%	60.6%	60.2%	1.01×	1.65
Both halves under 1.5 goals	40.4%	39.4%	39.8%	0.99×	2.54

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	52.1%	51.0%	53.4%	0.95×	1.96
Napoli to score 2+ in a row	33.5%	29.2%	31.7%	0.92×	3.42
AC Milan to score 2+ in a row	23.9%	19.7%	27.8%	0.71×	5.09
Either team to score 3+ in a row	17.3%	16.3%	17.9%	0.91×	6.15
Napoli to score 3+ in a row	11.2%	12.0%	10.1%	1.19×	8.33
AC Milan to score 3+ in a row	6.3%	5.5%	7.9%	0.70×	18.04

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli corners (+3.5)	95.5%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Napoli corners (+2.5)	92.0%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Napoli corners (+1.5)	86.6%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
AC Milan corners (+3.5)	64.1%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Napoli corners (-1.5)	58.1%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
AC Milan corners (+2.5)	53.3%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Napoli corners (-2.5)	46.7%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
AC Milan corners (+1.5)	41.9%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Napoli corners (-3.5)	35.9%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
AC Milan corners (-1.5)	13.4%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
AC Milan corners (-2.5)	8.0%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
AC Milan corners (-3.5)	4.5%	4.3%	—	—	23.41

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	54.5%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	26.0%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	19.6%	22.6%	—	—	4.43

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	86.1%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	80.4%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	73.3%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	64.5%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	56.5%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	54.5%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	45.5%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	43.5%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	35.5%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	26.7%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	19.6%	19.3%	—	—	5.17
Over 12.5 corners	13.9%	16.9%	—	—	5.91

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.6%	11.5%	11.9%	0.96×	8.72
1-0	11.0%	11.5%	10.2%	1.12×	8.72
0-1	8.9%	7.4%	9.1%	0.81×	13.50
2-1	8.8%	7.4%	9.4%	0.79×	13.50
0-0	7.8%	7.4%	7.9%	0.93×	13.50
1-2	7.2%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.51
2-0	7.8%	7.4%	6.7%	1.10×	13.50
0-2	5.1%	7.4%	6.6%	1.12×	13.51
2-2	5.0%	7.4%	6.0%	1.23×	13.51
0-3	1.9%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.31
0-4	0.6%	1.7%	1.0%	1.78×	58.32
1-3	2.7%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.30
1-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.7%	2.38×	58.31
2-3	1.9%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.31
2-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
3-0	3.6%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.30
3-1	4.2%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.30
3-2	2.4%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.31
3-3	0.9%	1.7%	0.8%	2.04×	58.31
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
4-0	1.3%	1.7%	1.7%	1.02×	58.31
4-1	1.5%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.31
4-2	0.8%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.31
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
Any other score	2.1%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (2nd half DNB)	52.5%	52.8%	53.7%	0.98×	1.89
AC Milan (2nd half DNB)	47.5%	47.2%	46.3%	1.02×	2.12

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli leading at HT (DNB)	61.8%	65.5%	51.1%	1.28×	1.53
AC Milan leading at HT (DNB)	38.2%	34.5%	48.9%	0.70×	2.90

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli or AC Milan (12)	73.6%	72.1%	73.6%	0.98×	1.39
Napoli or draw (1X)	69.5%	69.6%	66.3%	1.05×	1.44
AC Milan or draw (X2)	56.9%	57.1%	60.0%	0.95×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli or draw at HT	77.5%	79.1%	72.8%	1.09×	1.26
AC Milan or draw at HT	63.7%	61.6%	71.6%	0.86×	1.62
Napoli or AC Milan at HT	58.7%	57.2%	55.4%	1.03×	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli or draw (1UP)	69.5%	76.4%	71.6%	1.07×	1.31
AC Milan or draw (1UP)	56.9%	63.0%	65.5%	0.96×	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli or draw in 2nd half	71.2%	74.2%	69.8%	1.06×	1.35
AC Milan or draw in 2nd half	68.2%	65.7%	65.0%	1.01×	1.52
Napoli or AC Milan in 2nd half	60.6%	63.8%	65.0%	0.98×	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	64.4%	61.5%	63.5%	0.97×	1.63
Neither half drawn	35.6%	38.5%	36.5%	1.05×	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (DNB)	58.6%	58.1%	54.3%	1.07×	1.72
AC Milan (DNB)	41.4%	41.9%	45.7%	0.92×	2.39

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to score first	51.0%	53.3%	48.6%	1.10×	1.88
AC Milan to score first	41.2%	41.6%	43.6%	0.95×	2.40
No goal scored	7.8%	7.5%	7.9%	0.94×	13.39

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	51.4%	51.3%	49.2%	1.04×	1.95
Not both teams to score	48.6%	48.7%	50.8%	0.96×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	40.6%	41.6%	40.1%	1.04×	2.41
Both score & over 2.5	38.8%	38.4%	37.4%	1.03×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	12.6%	12.4%	11.9%	1.04×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.0%	8.3%	10.8%	0.77×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	87.0%	85.6%	86.5%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	13.0%	14.4%	13.5%	1.07×	6.95

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	76.3%	74.2%	74.9%	0.99×	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	23.7%	25.8%	25.1%	1.03×	3.88

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	61.0%	65.4%	62.7%	1.04×	1.53
Both score 2nd half only	18.9%	15.1%	20.3%	0.74×	6.62
Both score 1st half only	15.3%	14.9%	12.3%	1.22×	6.70
Both score in both halves	4.7%	5.0%	4.9%	1.01×	20.05

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	80.0%	81.3%	82.9%	0.98×	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	20.0%	18.7%	17.1%	1.10×	5.35

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	51.8%	52.7%	52.8%	1.00×	1.90
A half without a goal	48.2%	47.3%	47.2%	1.00×	2.11

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.0%	47.2%	48.4%	0.97×	2.12
0-1 goals	27.8%	26.6%	27.0%	0.98×	3.76
4-6 goals	23.7%	22.9%	23.8%	0.96×	4.37
7+ goals	1.6%	1.8%	1.0%	1.91×	54.35

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan to score exactly 1	36.5%	35.9%	34.7%	1.03×	2.78
AC Milan to score exactly 0	32.0%	33.8%	30.4%	1.11×	2.96
AC Milan to score exactly 2	20.8%	22.3%	23.2%	0.96×	4.49
AC Milan to score 3+	10.8%	12.9%	11.9%	1.08×	7.77

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to score exactly 1	34.4%	32.6%	32.1%	1.01×	3.07
Napoli to score exactly 0	24.5%	23.3%	28.4%	0.82×	4.29
Napoli to score exactly 2	24.3%	23.3%	24.8%	0.94×	4.29
Napoli to score 3+	16.9%	18.8%	15.0%	1.25×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	41.3%	42.8%	44.6%	0.96×	2.33
Napoli leading at HT	36.3%	38.4%	28.4%	1.35×	2.61
AC Milan leading at HT	22.5%	20.9%	27.2%	0.77×	4.78

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli -1: 2	56.9%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Napoli -1: X	22.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Napoli -1: 1	20.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (0:1)	56.9%	55.8%	60.0%	0.93×	1.79
Draw (0:1)	22.6%	24.2%	22.6%	1.07×	4.13
Napoli (0:1)	20.6%	24.2%	17.5%	1.38×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (0:2)	79.4%	79.4%	82.5%	0.96×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	12.8%	11.0%	10.0%	1.10×	9.10
Napoli (0:2)	7.7%	7.7%	7.7%	1.00×	13.04

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (0:3)	92.3%	92.7%	92.3%	1.00×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.4%	5.8%	4.7%	1.24×	17.24
Napoli (0:3)	2.4%	2.4%	3.1%	0.76×	42.09

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (0:4)	97.6%	98.1%	96.9%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.8%	1.2%	2.3%	0.53×	81.91
Napoli (0:4)	0.6%	1.2%	1.0%	1.27×	82.04

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (1:0)	69.5%	70.2%	66.3%	1.06×	1.43
Draw (1:0)	18.3%	17.1%	19.4%	0.88×	5.85
AC Milan (1:0)	12.2%	12.7%	14.4%	0.88×	7.87

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (2:0)	87.8%	88.5%	85.6%	1.03×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	8.4%	6.4%	8.7%	0.74×	15.68
AC Milan (2:0)	3.8%	2.3%	5.9%	0.39×	43.59

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	39.5%	39.5%	46.2%	0.86×	2.53
1st half highest scoring	33.8%	31.0%	27.0%	1.14×	3.23
Halves equal	26.6%	26.2%	26.9%	0.97×	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to concede	68.0%	66.7%	69.6%	0.96×	1.50
Napoli clean sheet	32.0%	33.3%	30.4%	1.10×	3.00

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli clean sheet in 1st half	60.8%	63.4%	58.8%	1.08×	1.58
Napoli to concede in 1st half	39.2%	36.6%	41.2%	0.89×	2.73

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli clean sheet in 2nd half	52.6%	52.7%	50.0%	1.05×	1.90
Napoli to concede in 2nd half	47.4%	47.3%	50.0%	0.95×	2.12

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli over 2.5 corners	83.4%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Napoli over 3.5 corners	70.8%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Napoli under 6.5 corners	67.9%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Napoli over 4.5 corners	57.0%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Napoli under 5.5 corners	56.3%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Napoli over 5.5 corners	43.7%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Napoli under 4.5 corners	43.0%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Napoli over 6.5 corners	32.1%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Napoli under 3.5 corners	29.2%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Napoli under 2.5 corners	16.6%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 3.5 goals	94.5%	92.2%	95.3%	0.97×	1.08
Napoli under 2.5 goals	83.1%	82.2%	85.0%	0.97×	1.22
Napoli over 0.5 goals	75.5%	77.7%	71.6%	1.08×	1.29
Napoli under 1.5 goals	58.9%	58.6%	60.3%	0.97×	1.71
Napoli over 1.5 goals	41.1%	41.4%	39.7%	1.04×	2.42
Napoli under 0.5 goals	24.5%	22.3%	28.4%	0.79×	4.49
Napoli over 2.5 goals	16.9%	17.8%	15.0%	1.18×	5.62
Napoli over 3.5 goals	5.5%	7.8%	4.7%	1.65×	12.90

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 1.5 in 1st half	83.9%	83.8%	89.3%	0.94×	1.19
Napoli over 0.5 in 1st half	51.1%	50.3%	42.1%	1.20×	1.99
Napoli under 0.5 in 1st half	48.9%	49.7%	57.9%	0.86×	2.01
Napoli over 1.5 in 1st half	16.1%	16.2%	10.7%	1.51×	6.17

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli scores equally in both	38.2%	37.9%	41.7%	0.91×	2.64
Napoli scores more in 1st half	31.6%	32.9%	22.2%	1.48×	3.04
Napoli scores more in 2nd half	30.2%	32.9%	36.2%	0.91×	3.04

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan (home no bet)	53.6%	51.4%	56.0%	0.92×	1.95
Draw (home no bet)	46.4%	48.6%	44.0%	1.10×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli even goals	53.0%	50.7%	56.3%	0.90×	1.97
Napoli odd goals	47.0%	49.3%	43.8%	1.13×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	29.7%	28.0%	33.8%	0.83×	3.57
HT 1-0	21.3%	24.4%	18.4%	1.33×	4.10
HT 0-1	14.8%	11.0%	18.1%	0.61×	9.05
HT 1-1	10.6%	11.0%	10.3%	1.06×	9.09
HT 2-0	7.6%	6.9%	5.8%	1.20×	14.48
Any other HT score	5.0%	2.4%	3.4%	0.71×	41.95
HT 0-2	3.7%	2.4%	5.4%	0.44×	42.04
HT 2-1	3.8%	2.4%	2.4%	0.99×	42.03
HT 1-2	2.6%	2.4%	2.6%	0.90×	42.11
HT 2-2	0.9%	2.4%	0.7%	3.28×	42.22

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli at HT / Napoli at FT	28.3%	27.3%	22.0%	1.24×	3.67
AC Milan at HT / AC Milan at FT	16.5%	16.7%	19.1%	0.87×	5.99
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	16.3%	16.7%	16.1%	1.04×	5.99
Draw at HT / Napoli at FT	13.1%	12.7%	15.9%	0.80×	7.91
Draw at HT / AC Milan at FT	11.9%	12.6%	12.9%	0.98×	7.91
Napoli at HT / Draw at FT	5.9%	6.0%	4.7%	1.28×	16.66
AC Milan at HT / Draw at FT	4.3%	3.5%	5.9%	0.59×	28.61
Napoli at HT / AC Milan at FT	2.1%	3.5%	1.9%	1.81×	28.69
AC Milan at HT / Napoli at FT	1.7%	3.5%	2.4%	1.45×	28.70

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to score last	51.0%	52.1%	48.2%	1.08×	1.92
AC Milan to score last	41.2%	40.0%	44.0%	0.91×	2.50
No goal scored	7.8%	7.5%	7.9%	0.94×	13.39

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.2%	92.6%	92.1%	1.01×	1.08
Napoli to lead by 1 at any time	58.2%	54.9%	55.3%	0.99×	1.82
AC Milan to lead by 1 at any time	47.1%	44.5%	50.5%	0.88×	2.25
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	43.4%	39.2%	43.6%	0.90×	2.55
Napoli to lead by 2 at any time	26.3%	25.5%	23.9%	1.07×	3.92
AC Milan to lead by 2 at any time	17.2%	14.9%	20.2%	0.74×	6.69
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	14.5%	10.5%	15.1%	0.69×	9.52
Napoli to lead by 3 at any time	9.5%	6.8%	8.8%	0.77×	14.81
AC Milan to lead by 3 at any time	5.0%	6.7%	6.5%	1.03×	15.01

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli most corners	69.2%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
AC Milan most corners	21.1%	25.9%	—	—	3.87
Corners level	9.7%	8.4%	—	—	11.96

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.6%	87.4%	89.2%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.6%	83.4%	80.8%	1.03×	1.20
2-6 goals	70.7%	72.4%	72.1%	1.00×	1.38
2-5 goals	67.7%	68.8%	70.1%	0.98×	1.45
1-3 goals	66.9%	68.8%	67.5%	1.02×	1.45
2-4 goals	60.7%	63.3%	61.7%	1.03×	1.58
2-3 goals	47.0%	48.5%	48.4%	1.00×	2.06
1-2 goals	45.3%	48.5%	44.1%	1.10×	2.06
3-6 goals	45.3%	48.5%	47.2%	1.03×	2.06
3-5 goals	42.3%	43.6%	45.2%	0.96×	2.30
3-4 goals	35.3%	39.2%	36.8%	1.07×	2.55
4-6 goals	23.7%	24.5%	23.8%	1.03×	4.08
4-5 goals	20.7%	24.5%	21.8%	1.13×	4.09
5-6 goals	10.0%	8.9%	10.6%	0.84×	11.25
7+ goals	1.6%	2.6%	1.0%	2.66×	39.15

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli never behind	45.1%	56.5%	49.5%	1.14×	1.77
AC Milan never behind	34.0%	36.3%	44.7%	0.81×	2.75

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.7%	50.9%	51.6%	0.99×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.3%	49.1%	48.4%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.4%	51.7%	56.6%	0.91×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.6%	48.3%	43.4%	1.11×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.5%	51.9%	50.6%	1.03×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.5%	48.1%	49.4%	0.97×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	95.5%	95.4%	97.0%	0.98×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	92.2%	92.3%	92.1%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	88.5%	87.6%	88.6%	0.99×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	74.7%	72.5%	75.4%	0.96×	1.38
Over 1.5 goals	72.2%	72.5%	73.0%	0.99×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	53.2%	52.5%	51.9%	1.01×	1.90
Over 2.5 goals	46.8%	47.5%	48.1%	0.99×	2.11
Under 1.5 goals	27.8%	27.5%	27.0%	1.02×	3.63
Over 3.5 goals	25.3%	27.5%	24.6%	1.12×	3.63
Over 4.5 goals	11.5%	12.4%	11.4%	1.09×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	7.8%	7.7%	7.9%	0.97×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	4.5%	4.6%	3.0%	1.52×	21.84

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.4%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.1%	97.2%	96.7%	1.00×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	86.6%	86.7%	86.8%	1.00×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	67.8%	67.5%	67.8%	0.99×	1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	62.8%	61.9%	64.0%	0.97×	1.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	37.2%	38.1%	36.0%	1.06×	2.63
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	32.2%	32.6%	32.2%	1.01×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	13.4%	13.3%	13.2%	1.01×	7.53
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.9%	2.8%	3.3%	0.86×	35.52
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.6%	2.8%	1.0%	2.86×	35.61

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	87.7%	89.2%	91.2%	0.98×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	70.3%	71.8%	66.2%	1.08×	1.39
Under 1.5 in 1st half	65.8%	68.4%	70.1%	0.98×	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	34.2%	31.6%	29.9%	1.06×	3.16
Under 0.5 in 1st half	29.7%	28.2%	33.8%	0.84×	3.54
Over 2.5 in 1st half	12.3%	10.8%	8.8%	1.23×	9.25

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	84.9%	83.3%	82.5%	1.01×	1.20
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	73.7%	77.4%	78.6%	0.99×	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	61.5%	61.5%	57.0%	1.08×	1.63
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	38.5%	38.5%	43.0%	0.89×	2.60
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	26.3%	22.6%	21.4%	1.06×	4.43
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	15.1%	16.7%	17.5%	0.95×	5.97

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan not to score in both halves	81.4%	84.3%	78.4%	1.08×	1.19
Napoli not to score in both halves	74.5%	74.0%	75.8%	0.98×	1.35
Napoli to score in both halves	25.5%	26.0%	24.2%	1.08×	3.85
AC Milan to score in both halves	18.6%	15.7%	21.6%	0.73×	6.37

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	51.4%	53.8%	49.2%	1.10×	1.86
Only Napoli scores	24.2%	22.3%	22.6%	0.99×	4.49
Only AC Milan scores	16.6%	16.0%	20.6%	0.78×	6.24
Neither team scores	7.8%	7.1%	7.9%	0.90×	14.04

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.4%	24.9%	25.0%	0.99×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	21.6%	22.6%	23.6%	0.96×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	19.9%	17.5%	19.2%	0.91×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	13.7%	12.1%	13.3%	0.91×	8.24
Exactly 0 goals	7.8%	7.6%	7.9%	0.96×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	7.0%	7.6%	8.5%	0.89×	13.14
6 or more goals	4.5%	4.5%	3.0%	1.49×	22.37

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.1%	37.4%	36.4%	1.03×	2.68
No goals in 1st half	29.7%	28.3%	33.8%	0.84×	3.53
2 goals in 1st half	21.9%	21.5%	21.3%	1.01×	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	12.3%	10.7%	8.8%	1.22×	9.33

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	38.5%	39.6%	43.0%	0.92×	2.52
1 goal in 2nd half	35.1%	39.2%	35.7%	1.10×	2.55
No goals in 2nd half	26.3%	29.2%	21.4%	1.37×	3.42

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan not to win both halves	93.5%	94.1%	91.1%	1.03×	1.06
Napoli not to win both halves	88.5%	87.9%	89.9%	0.98×	1.14
Napoli to win both halves	11.5%	12.1%	10.1%	1.20×	8.27
AC Milan to win both halves	6.5%	5.9%	8.9%	0.66×	17.05

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to win either half	56.5%	59.0%	53.2%	1.11×	1.69
AC Milan to win neither half	55.2%	59.0%	51.6%	1.14×	1.70
AC Milan to win either half	44.8%	41.0%	48.4%	0.85×	2.44
Napoli to win neither half	43.5%	41.0%	46.8%	0.88×	2.44

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AC Milan not to win to nil	83.4%	83.1%	79.4%	1.05×	1.20
Napoli not to win to nil	75.8%	78.1%	77.4%	1.01×	1.28
Napoli to win to nil	24.2%	21.9%	22.6%	0.97×	4.57
AC Milan to win to nil	16.6%	16.9%	20.6%	0.82×	5.92

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	26.4%	27.9%	26.4%	1.05×	3.59
Napoli by 1	22.6%	24.1%	22.6%	1.07×	4.15
AC Milan by 1	18.3%	17.1%	19.4%	0.88×	5.87
Napoli by 2	12.8%	11.8%	10.0%	1.18×	8.51
AC Milan by 2	8.4%	7.2%	8.7%	0.83×	13.90
Napoli by 3+	7.7%	7.2%	7.7%	0.93×	13.91
AC Milan by 3+	3.8%	2.7%	5.9%	0.46×	36.79