Napoli v Arsenal — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 9 September 2026 · EUR-Champions League · 2627

Champions League results-only Prediction generated 8 Sep 2026, 11:44 UTC

Napoli

19:00 UTC

Arsenal

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 35h before kick-off

Napoli win

9.4%

model 10.8%

Draw

17.8%

model 18.3%

Arsenal win

72.7%

model 70.9%

91873

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (83 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

0-2 14.2%
0-1 14.1%
0-3 9.7%
1-2 9.2%
1-1 8.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	50.8%	Under 2.5	49.2%
BTTS yes	41.1%	BTTS no	58.9%
Napoli 1+	47.5%	Napoli 2+	13.7%
Arsenal 1+	87.3%	Arsenal 2+	61.0%

Expected goals 0.65 – 2.06. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

88/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

93%

★ Best pick

Draw (away no bet)

Away no bet · usually 24%

62.3% fair odds 1.61

strong signal · 4385 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Arsenal under 1.5 in 1st half

Away goals O/U 1HT

84.0% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 361 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Arsenal carry the stronger rating, 1920 Elo against 1658.
Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Arsenal have an estimated 72.7% win probability, against 17.8% for the draw and 9.4% for Napoli. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.65 for Napoli and 2.06 for Arsenal.

Why Napoli

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five. At home Napoli average 1.52 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 17.8%. Draws run at 16% in this competition.

Why Arsenal can win

Arsenal carry the stronger rating, 1920 Elo against 1658. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Key players

Napoli's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Rasmus Højlund (0.43), Scott McTominay (0.38), Kevin De Bruyne (0.28). Arsenal's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Bukayo Saka (0.50), Kai Havertz (0.45), Viktor Gyokeres (0.39).

Availability

2 of Napoli's top three contributors did not start their last match. 1 of Arsenal's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Napoli: 55% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 15.0 faced, 0.10 xG a match from set pieces. Arsenal: 53% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 10.6 faced, 0.50 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Arsenal are the model's most likely outcome at 72.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-2 at 14.2%. Confidence 88/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Napoli are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DLWDLWWWLL last 10 scored 16 from 14.6 xG conceded 11 from 13.3 xG

Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LLWWWWWWWW last 10 scored 16 from 22.9 xG conceded 6 from 9.4 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	111871	0.65–2.06	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	61678	0.41–2.13	0-2 18%	47%	29%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal to win	70.9%	73.5%	33.7%	2.18×	1.36
Draw	18.3%	18.0%	16.1%	1.12×	5.54
Napoli to win	10.8%	13.0%	50.5%	0.26×	7.72

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal & not both score	46.1%	46.9%	15.5%	3.02×	2.13
Arsenal & both teams score	24.7%	21.5%	18.4%	1.17×	4.65
Draw & both teams score	12.0%	12.6%	11.1%	1.14×	7.91
Napoli & not both score	6.4%	7.7%	25.0%	0.31×	13.05
Draw & not both score	6.3%	7.7%	5.3%	1.46×	13.05
Napoli & both teams score	4.4%	4.1%	25.8%	0.16×	24.25

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal & over 1.5	56.7%	57.6%	28.2%	2.04×	1.74
Arsenal & under 3.5	47.2%	46.8%	19.2%	2.44×	2.14
Arsenal & over 2.5	42.5%	42.8%	23.9%	1.79×	2.34
Arsenal & under 2.5	28.3%	26.5%	10.0%	2.65×	3.78
Arsenal & over 3.5	23.6%	21.8%	14.7%	1.48×	4.59
Draw & under 2.5	14.9%	12.5%	10.8%	1.15×	8.03
Draw & under 3.5	14.9%	12.5%	10.8%	1.15×	8.03
Arsenal & under 1.5	14.1%	12.5%	5.8%	2.15×	8.03
Draw & over 1.5	12.0%	12.5%	11.1%	1.13×	8.03
Napoli & over 1.5	6.2%	7.6%	42.4%	0.18×	13.17
Napoli & under 2.5	6.1%	7.6%	14.7%	0.52×	13.17
Napoli & under 3.5	9.2%	7.6%	26.8%	0.28×	13.17
Draw & under 1.5	6.3%	7.6%	5.3%	1.44×	13.17
Napoli & under 1.5	4.7%	4.3%	8.4%	0.52×	22.99
Napoli & over 2.5	4.8%	4.3%	36.1%	0.12×	22.99
Draw & over 2.5	3.4%	4.3%	5.5%	0.79×	23.00
Draw & over 3.5	3.4%	4.3%	5.5%	0.79×	23.00
Napoli & over 3.5	1.6%	4.3%	23.9%	0.18×	23.00

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal (1UP)	79.0%	80.2%	—	—	1.25
Napoli (1UP)	24.9%	25.1%	—	—	3.98

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal (2UP)	70.9%	74.1%	—	—	1.35
Napoli (2UP)	10.8%	15.6%	—	—	6.43

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal to win 2nd half	58.8%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
2nd half drawn	30.1%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Napoli to win 2nd half	11.1%	14.1%	—	—	7.09

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal (+2.5)	99.5%	96.6%	81.6%	1.18×	1.04
Arsenal (+1.5)	97.4%	96.6%	68.4%	1.41×	1.04
Arsenal (+0.5)	89.2%	87.4%	49.5%	1.77×	1.14
Arsenal (-0.5)	70.9%	72.8%	33.7%	2.16×	1.37
Napoli (+0.5)	29.1%	27.2%	66.3%	0.41×	3.68
Napoli (-0.5)	10.8%	12.6%	50.5%	0.25×	7.93
Napoli (-1.5)	2.6%	3.4%	31.6%	0.11×	29.56
Napoli (-2.5)	0.5%	3.4%	18.4%	0.18×	29.64

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal clean sheet	52.5%	55.3%	20.5%	2.70×	1.81
Arsenal to concede	47.5%	44.7%	79.5%	0.56×	2.24

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal clean sheet in 1st half	75.8%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Arsenal to concede in 1st half	24.2%	18.5%	—	—	5.41

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal under 6.5 corners	85.3%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Arsenal under 5.5 corners	76.5%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Arsenal over 2.5 corners	68.2%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Arsenal under 4.5 corners	64.3%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Arsenal over 3.5 corners	51.1%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Arsenal under 3.5 corners	48.9%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Arsenal over 4.5 corners	35.7%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Arsenal under 2.5 corners	31.8%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Arsenal over 5.5 corners	23.5%	24.1%	—	—	4.16
Arsenal over 6.5 corners	14.7%	14.8%	—	—	6.74

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal over 0.5 goals	87.3%	87.2%	70.0%	1.25×	1.15
Arsenal under 3.5 goals	84.6%	82.4%	92.1%	0.90×	1.21
Arsenal under 2.5 goals	66.1%	67.7%	78.9%	0.86×	1.48
Arsenal over 1.5 goals	61.0%	63.7%	40.3%	1.58×	1.57
Arsenal under 1.5 goals	39.0%	36.3%	59.7%	0.61×	2.76
Arsenal over 2.5 goals	33.9%	32.3%	21.1%	1.54×	3.09
Arsenal over 3.5 goals	15.4%	17.6%	7.9%	2.22×	5.70
Arsenal under 0.5 goals	12.8%	12.8%	30.0%	0.43×	7.81

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal under 1.5 in 1st half	80.0%	84.0%	—	—	1.19
Arsenal over 0.5 in 1st half	56.1%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Arsenal under 0.5 in 1st half	43.9%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Arsenal over 1.5 in 1st half	20.0%	16.0%	—	—	6.27

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (away no bet)	62.8%	62.3%	24.1%	2.58×	1.61
Napoli (away no bet)	37.2%	37.7%	75.9%	0.50×	2.65

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal even goals	50.8%	53.5%	54.5%	0.98×	1.87
Arsenal odd goals	49.2%	46.5%	45.5%	1.02×	2.15

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	85.7%	86.8%	—	—	1.15
Both halves over 1.5 goals	14.4%	13.2%	—	—	7.58

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	63.2%	65.0%	—	—	1.54
Both halves under 1.5 goals	36.8%	35.0%	—	—	2.85

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	61.0%	59.4%	—	—	1.69
Arsenal to score 2+ in a row	55.7%	58.0%	—	—	1.72
Either team to score 3+ in a row	28.7%	27.1%	—	—	3.69
Arsenal to score 3+ in a row	27.6%	27.1%	—	—	3.69
Napoli to score 2+ in a row	8.6%	7.8%	—	—	12.75
Napoli to score 3+ in a row	1.2%	3.0%	—	—	33.25

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli corners (+3.5)	87.9%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Napoli corners (+2.5)	81.4%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Arsenal corners (+3.5)	78.7%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Napoli corners (+1.5)	73.0%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Arsenal corners (+2.5)	70.1%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Arsenal corners (+1.5)	59.8%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Napoli corners (-1.5)	40.2%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Napoli corners (-2.5)	29.9%	29.3%	—	—	3.41
Arsenal corners (-1.5)	27.0%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Napoli corners (-3.5)	21.3%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Arsenal corners (-2.5)	18.6%	20.3%	—	—	4.93
Arsenal corners (-3.5)	12.1%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	53.5%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	26.2%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	20.3%	25.5%	—	—	3.92

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	85.5%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Under 11.5 corners	79.7%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	72.4%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	63.6%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	57.4%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	53.5%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	46.5%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	42.6%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	36.4%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 10.5 corners	27.6%	27.4%	—	—	3.66
Over 11.5 corners	20.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Over 12.5 corners	14.5%	17.1%	—	—	5.86

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-1	14.1%	11.2%	5.8%	1.94×	8.90
0-2	14.2%	11.2%	4.5%	2.51×	8.90
0-3	9.7%	7.4%	3.9%	1.88×	13.48
0-0	6.3%	7.4%	5.3%	1.41×	13.49
1-1	8.5%	7.4%	5.8%	1.28×	13.48
1-2	9.2%	7.4%	5.8%	1.28×	13.48
1-3	6.3%	7.4%	2.9%	2.56×	13.49
Any other score	5.8%	7.4%	11.3%	0.66×	13.49
0-4	5.0%	7.4%	1.6%	4.70×	13.49
1-0	4.7%	1.7%	8.4%	0.20×	58.10
1-4	3.2%	1.7%	1.6%	1.09×	58.10
2-0	1.4%	1.7%	6.6%	0.26×	58.11
2-1	2.9%	1.7%	7.4%	0.23×	58.10
2-2	3.0%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	58.10
2-3	2.0%	1.7%	5.0%	0.34×	58.11
2-4	1.0%	1.7%	1.1%	1.63×	58.11
3-0	0.3%	1.7%	5.3%	0.33×	58.11
3-1	0.6%	1.7%	5.8%	0.30×	58.11
3-2	0.6%	1.7%	3.2%	0.55×	58.11
3-3	0.4%	1.7%	1.6%	1.09×	58.11
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.5%	3.27×	58.11
4-0	0.0%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.11
4-1	0.1%	1.7%	3.2%	0.54×	58.11
4-2	0.1%	1.7%	1.3%	1.31×	58.11
4-3	0.1%	1.7%	0.8%	2.18×	58.11
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.5%	3.27×	58.11

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal leading at HT (DNB)	79.8%	78.8%	—	—	1.27
Napoli leading at HT (DNB)	20.2%	21.2%	—	—	4.72

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal or draw (X2)	89.2%	87.0%	49.5%	1.76×	1.15
Napoli or Arsenal (12)	81.7%	82.0%	83.9%	0.98×	1.22
Napoli or draw (1X)	29.1%	26.5%	66.3%	0.40×	3.78

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal or draw at HT	88.1%	86.6%	—	—	1.15
Napoli or Arsenal at HT	58.8%	57.3%	—	—	1.75
Napoli or draw at HT	53.1%	54.1%	—	—	1.85

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal or draw (1UP)	89.2%	90.6%	—	—	1.10
Napoli or draw (1UP)	29.1%	33.9%	—	—	2.95

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal or draw in 2nd half	88.9%	85.9%	—	—	1.16
Napoli or Arsenal in 2nd half	69.9%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Napoli or draw in 2nd half	41.2%	38.6%	—	—	2.59

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	59.3%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Neither half drawn	40.7%	44.8%	—	—	2.23

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal (DNB)	86.7%	87.8%	40.0%	2.20×	1.14
Napoli (DNB)	13.3%	12.2%	60.0%	0.20×	8.20

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal to score first	71.3%	76.7%	—	—	1.30
Napoli to score first	22.3%	19.3%	—	—	5.17
No goal scored	6.3%	6.3%	—	—	15.93

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	58.9%	55.7%	45.3%	1.23×	1.80
Both teams to score	41.1%	44.3%	54.7%	0.81×	2.26

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	40.7%	41.6%	29.5%	1.41×	2.40
Both score & over 2.5	32.6%	34.0%	49.2%	0.69×	2.94
Not both score & over 2.5	18.2%	17.3%	16.1%	1.08×	5.80
Both score & under 2.5	8.5%	8.5%	5.8%	1.46×	11.81

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	91.7%	89.7%	81.1%	1.11×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	8.3%	10.3%	18.9%	0.54×	9.72

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	78.3%	74.2%	—	—	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	21.7%	25.8%	—	—	3.88

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	67.7%	64.8%	—	—	1.54
Both score 2nd half only	18.7%	18.8%	—	—	5.32
Both score 1st half only	10.6%	11.9%	—	—	8.42
Both score in both halves	3.0%	4.6%	—	—	21.80

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	86.5%	84.9%	—	—	1.18
Both teams to score by HT	13.5%	15.1%	—	—	6.62

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	53.2%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
A half without a goal	46.8%	47.4%	—	—	2.11

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.2%	46.6%	37.6%	1.24×	2.15
4-6 goals	26.6%	27.3%	37.1%	0.74×	3.66
0-1 goals	25.1%	27.3%	18.9%	1.44×	3.66
7+ goals	2.0%	2.0%	6.8%	0.29×	50.25

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal to score 3+	33.9%	32.5%	21.1%	1.54×	3.08
Arsenal to score exactly 2	27.1%	27.4%	19.5%	1.40×	3.66
Arsenal to score exactly 1	26.3%	27.4%	30.0%	0.91×	3.66
Arsenal to score exactly 0	12.8%	12.9%	30.0%	0.43×	7.75

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to score exactly 0	52.5%	52.2%	20.5%	2.54×	1.92
Napoli to score exactly 1	33.8%	32.1%	25.5%	1.26×	3.11
Napoli to score exactly 2	10.9%	13.2%	23.4%	0.56×	7.59
Napoli to score 3+	2.8%	4.6%	31.1%	0.15×	21.89

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal leading at HT	46.9%	45.9%	—	—	2.18
Draw at HT	41.2%	42.7%	—	—	2.34
Napoli leading at HT	11.9%	13.4%	—	—	7.48

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal -1: 2	45.3%	48.1%	—	—	2.08
Arsenal -1: 1	29.1%	26.9%	—	—	3.72
Arsenal -1: X	25.6%	26.9%	—	—	3.72

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal (0:1)	89.2%	87.3%	49.5%	1.76×	1.15
Draw (0:1)	8.2%	8.7%	19.2%	0.45×	11.46
Napoli (0:1)	2.6%	3.6%	31.6%	0.11×	28.06

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal (0:2)	97.4%	96.5%	68.4%	1.41×	1.04
Draw (0:2)	2.1%	3.5%	13.4%	0.26×	28.85
Napoli (0:2)	0.5%	3.5%	18.4%	0.19×	28.90

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal (0:3)	99.5%	96.7%	81.6%	1.19×	1.03
Draw (0:3)	0.4%	2.6%	9.2%	0.28×	39.01
Napoli (0:3)	0.1%	2.6%	9.5%	0.27×	39.01

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal (0:4)	99.9%	97.7%	90.5%	1.08×	1.02
Napoli (0:4)	0.0%	1.4%	3.9%	0.36×	70.62
Draw (0:4)	0.1%	1.4%	5.8%	0.24×	70.62

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal (1:0)	45.3%	49.5%	17.4%	2.85×	2.02
Napoli (1:0)	29.1%	25.3%	66.3%	0.38×	3.96
Draw (1:0)	25.6%	25.2%	16.6%	1.52×	3.97

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (2:0)	54.7%	51.6%	82.6%	0.62×	1.94
Arsenal (2:0)	23.7%	21.0%	9.7%	2.15×	4.77
Draw (2:0)	21.6%	20.9%	7.9%	2.64×	4.79

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	49.3%	48.6%	—	—	2.06
1st half highest scoring	26.4%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
Halves equal	24.3%	23.3%	—	—	4.30

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to concede	87.3%	86.9%	70.0%	1.24×	1.15
Napoli clean sheet	12.8%	13.1%	30.0%	0.44×	7.62

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to concede in 1st half	56.1%	57.0%	—	—	1.76
Napoli clean sheet in 1st half	43.9%	43.0%	—	—	2.32

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 6.5 corners	77.6%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Napoli over 2.5 corners	76.1%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Napoli under 5.5 corners	67.1%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Napoli over 3.5 corners	61.0%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Napoli under 4.5 corners	54.0%	52.8%	—	—	1.89
Napoli over 4.5 corners	46.0%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Napoli under 3.5 corners	39.0%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Napoli over 5.5 corners	32.9%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Napoli under 2.5 corners	23.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Napoli over 6.5 corners	22.4%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 3.5 goals	99.6%	96.6%	83.9%	1.15×	1.04
Napoli under 2.5 goals	97.2%	96.6%	68.9%	1.40×	1.04
Napoli under 1.5 goals	86.3%	87.5%	45.8%	1.91×	1.14
Napoli under 0.5 goals	52.5%	53.3%	20.5%	2.60×	1.88
Napoli over 0.5 goals	47.5%	46.7%	79.5%	0.59×	2.14
Napoli over 1.5 goals	13.7%	12.5%	54.2%	0.23×	7.97
Napoli over 2.5 goals	2.8%	3.4%	31.1%	0.11×	29.08
Napoli over 3.5 goals	0.4%	3.4%	16.1%	0.21×	29.13

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 1.5 in 1st half	96.8%	96.4%	—	—	1.04
Napoli under 0.5 in 1st half	75.8%	76.3%	—	—	1.31
Napoli over 0.5 in 1st half	24.2%	23.7%	—	—	4.22
Napoli over 1.5 in 1st half	3.2%	3.6%	—	—	27.86

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal (home no bet)	79.5%	78.8%	67.7%	1.16×	1.27
Draw (home no bet)	20.5%	21.2%	32.3%	0.66×	4.72

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli even goals	63.8%	62.9%	53.2%	1.18×	1.59
Napoli odd goals	36.2%	37.1%	46.8%	0.79×	2.70

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	33.2%	32.2%	—	—	3.10
HT 0-1	27.5%	26.0%	—	—	3.84
HT 0-2	11.3%	10.9%	—	—	9.15
HT 1-0	9.3%	8.0%	—	—	12.44
HT 1-1	7.5%	8.0%	—	—	12.46
Any other HT score	5.4%	8.0%	—	—	12.48
HT 1-2	3.1%	2.5%	—	—	40.41
HT 2-0	1.3%	2.5%	—	—	40.49
HT 2-1	1.1%	2.5%	—	—	40.50
HT 2-2	0.4%	2.5%	—	—	40.53

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal at HT / Arsenal at FT	43.4%	39.9%	—	—	2.51
Draw at HT / Arsenal at FT	24.4%	20.6%	—	—	4.87
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.0%	12.2%	—	—	8.21
Napoli at HT / Napoli at FT	5.5%	6.4%	—	—	15.59
Draw at HT / Napoli at FT	4.7%	3.7%	—	—	27.26
Napoli at HT / Draw at FT	3.4%	3.7%	—	—	27.30
Napoli at HT / Arsenal at FT	3.0%	3.7%	—	—	27.31
Arsenal at HT / Draw at FT	2.9%	3.7%	—	—	27.31
Arsenal at HT / Napoli at FT	0.6%	3.7%	—	—	27.38

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal to score last	71.2%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Napoli to score last	22.4%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
No goal scored	6.3%	6.3%	—	—	15.93

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.7%	93.6%	—	—	1.07
Arsenal to lead by 1 at any time	79.0%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	55.0%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Arsenal to lead by 2 at any time	50.2%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	26.8%	25.8%	—	—	3.88
Arsenal to lead by 3 at any time	26.0%	25.7%	—	—	3.89
Napoli to lead by 1 at any time	24.9%	21.4%	—	—	4.68
Napoli to lead by 2 at any time	4.9%	2.5%	—	—	39.92
Napoli to lead by 3 at any time	0.8%	2.4%	—	—	41.05

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli most corners	51.5%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Arsenal most corners	37.2%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	11.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.63

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	88.0%	87.2%	81.3%	1.07×	1.15
1-4 goals	79.9%	77.9%	67.6%	1.15×	1.28
2-6 goals	72.8%	72.1%	74.5%	0.97×	1.39
2-5 goals	69.2%	68.2%	67.6%	1.01×	1.47
1-3 goals	65.0%	62.7%	51.3%	1.22×	1.60
2-4 goals	61.1%	62.7%	53.9%	1.16×	1.60
3-6 goals	48.7%	47.4%	58.4%	0.81×	2.11
2-3 goals	46.2%	47.4%	37.6%	1.26×	2.11
3-5 goals	45.1%	47.4%	51.6%	0.92×	2.11
1-2 goals	42.9%	43.7%	30.0%	1.46×	2.29
3-4 goals	37.0%	39.0%	37.9%	1.03×	2.56
4-6 goals	26.6%	28.5%	37.1%	0.77×	3.51
4-5 goals	23.0%	23.8%	30.3%	0.79×	4.20
5-6 goals	11.7%	13.5%	20.8%	0.65×	7.40
7+ goals	2.0%	2.2%	6.8%	0.33×	44.59

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal never behind	68.8%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Napoli never behind	14.7%	11.7%	—	—	8.56

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	50.5%	50.0%	54.2%	0.92×	2.00
Even number of goals	49.5%	50.0%	45.8%	1.09×	2.00

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.4%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Odd goals in 1st half	44.6%	44.9%	—	—	2.23

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.8%	51.5%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.2%	48.5%	—	—	2.06

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.3%	92.3%	86.3%	1.07×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	93.7%	92.3%	94.7%	0.97×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	86.2%	87.7%	72.6%	1.21×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	74.9%	72.2%	81.1%	0.89×	1.39
Under 3.5 goals	71.3%	72.2%	56.3%	1.28×	1.39
Over 2.5 goals	50.7%	52.1%	65.0%	0.80×	1.92
Under 2.5 goals	49.3%	47.9%	35.0%	1.37×	2.09
Over 3.5 goals	28.7%	27.8%	43.7%	0.64×	3.60
Under 1.5 goals	25.1%	27.8%	18.9%	1.47×	3.60
Over 4.5 goals	13.8%	12.3%	27.4%	0.45×	8.14
Under 0.5 goals	6.3%	7.7%	5.3%	1.47×	12.95
Over 5.5 goals	5.7%	7.7%	13.7%	0.56×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.9%	97.3%	92.7%	1.05×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.8%	92.0%	84.1%	1.09×	1.09
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	83.8%	81.3%	67.3%	1.21×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	66.9%	67.4%	77.4%	0.87×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	63.2%	62.0%	44.5%	1.39×	1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	36.8%	38.0%	55.5%	0.68×	2.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	33.1%	32.6%	22.6%	1.44×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	16.2%	18.7%	32.7%	0.57×	5.35
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.2%	8.0%	15.9%	0.50×	12.56
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.1%	2.7%	7.3%	0.37×	36.69

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	90.0%	91.6%	—	—	1.09
Under 1.5 in 1st half	69.9%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Over 0.5 in 1st half	66.8%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Under 0.5 in 1st half	33.2%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
Over 1.5 in 1st half	30.1%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Over 2.5 in 1st half	10.0%	8.4%	—	—	11.90

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	80.0%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	78.3%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	47.5%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	52.5%	49.9%	—	—	2.01
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	21.7%	20.2%	—	—	4.96
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	20.0%	20.1%	—	—	4.97

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli not to score in both halves	92.6%	88.7%	—	—	1.13
Arsenal not to score in both halves	60.2%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Arsenal to score in both halves	39.8%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Napoli to score in both halves	7.4%	11.3%	—	—	8.87

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Only Arsenal scores	46.1%	50.6%	15.5%	3.26×	1.98
Both teams score	41.1%	45.4%	54.7%	0.83×	2.20
Neither team scores	6.3%	7.2%	5.3%	1.36×	13.97
Only Napoli scores	6.4%	7.2%	25.0%	0.29×	13.97

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.1%	22.3%	16.3%	1.37×	4.48
Exactly 3 goals	22.1%	22.3%	21.6%	1.03×	4.48
Exactly 1 goals	18.8%	17.6%	13.9%	1.26×	5.69
Exactly 4 goals	14.9%	12.3%	16.6%	0.74×	8.12
Exactly 5 goals	8.1%	7.8%	13.9%	0.56×	12.89
Exactly 0 goals	6.3%	7.8%	5.3%	1.47×	12.89
6 or more goals	5.7%	7.8%	13.7%	0.57×	12.89

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	47.5%	50.0%	—	—	2.00
1 goal in 2nd half	32.5%	34.3%	—	—	2.91
No goals in 2nd half	20.0%	20.1%	—	—	4.98

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli not to win both halves	98.7%	97.5%	—	—	1.03
Arsenal not to win both halves	72.5%	74.5%	—	—	1.34
Arsenal to win both halves	27.5%	25.5%	—	—	3.93
Napoli to win both halves	1.3%	2.5%	—	—	39.45

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to win neither half	78.3%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Arsenal to win either half	78.2%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Arsenal to win neither half	21.8%	19.1%	—	—	5.23
Napoli to win either half	21.7%	19.1%	—	—	5.23

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli not to win to nil	93.6%	92.2%	75.0%	1.23×	1.08
Arsenal not to win to nil	53.9%	53.8%	84.5%	0.64×	1.86
Arsenal to win to nil	46.1%	46.2%	15.5%	2.97×	2.17
Napoli to win to nil	6.4%	7.8%	25.0%	0.31×	12.86

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal by 1	25.6%	27.4%	16.6%	1.65×	3.65
Arsenal by 3+	23.7%	23.3%	9.7%	2.39×	4.29
Arsenal by 2	21.6%	23.3%	7.9%	2.95×	4.29
Draw	18.3%	17.3%	16.1%	1.08×	5.78
Napoli by 1	8.2%	7.3%	19.2%	0.38×	13.66
Napoli by 2	2.1%	3.0%	13.4%	0.22×	33.83
Napoli by 3+	0.5%	3.0%	18.4%	0.16×	33.85