Napoli v Bologna — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 11 May 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 10
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
11 – 5
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.52 – 0.76
Goals − xG
+0.77 – +1.87
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Napoli win
57.3%
Draw
22.9%
Bologna win
19.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Napoli are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLWDLWWWLL last 10
scored 16
from 14.6 xG
conceded 11
from 13.3 xG
Bologna are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLDWWDLLD last 10
scored 11
from 14.7 xG
conceded 13
from 10.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.69–0.87 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.60–0.92 | 1-0 13% | 46% | 48% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Napoli 1.23 xGBologna 1.13 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Napoli attacking right
Bologna attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Bologna |
Federico Bernardeschi | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Juan Miranda |
| 6' |
 Napoli |
Alisson Santos | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Giovane |
| 8' |
Bologna |
Federico Bernardeschi | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Juan Miranda |
| 11' |
Bologna |
Juan Miranda | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Jhon Lucumí |
| 12' |
Napoli |
Giovane | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Matteo Politano |
| 13' |
Napoli |
Alisson Santos | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Miguel Gutiérrez |
| 22' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 29' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.44 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Alisson Santos |
| 33' |
Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 39' |
Napoli |
Giovane | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alisson Santos |
| 41' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
Napoli |
Giovanni Di Lorenzo | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Matteo Politano |
| 46' |
Napoli |
Giovanni Di Lorenzo | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 47' |
Napoli |
Alisson Santos | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Rasmus Højlund |
| 54' |
Napoli |
Alisson Santos | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Scott McTominay |
| 71' |
Napoli |
Amir Rrahmani | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alisson Santos |
| 74' |
Bologna |
Tommaso Pobega | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 76' |
Bologna |
Lewis Ferguson | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Juan Miranda |
| 78' |
Bologna |
Jonathan Rowe | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Santiago Castro |
| 85' |
Bologna |
Santiago Castro | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Riccardo Orsolini |
| 86' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Leonardo Spinazzola |
| 90' |
Bologna |
Jonathan Rowe | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 90' |
Bologna |
Juan Miranda | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Santiago Castro |
| 93' |
Napoli |
Amir Rrahmani | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Pasquale Mazzocchi |
Players
Bologna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riccardo Orsolini FWR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.76 | 0.01 | 0.10 |
| Juan Miranda DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| Santiago Castro FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| Massimo Pessina GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jhon Lucumí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| Remo Freuler MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Tommaso Pobega MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Eivind Helland DC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Lewis Ferguson MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Federico Bernardeschi FWL | 76 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| João Mário DR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Nadir Zortea Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jonathan Rowe Sub | 14 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Simon Sohm Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Torbjørn Heggem Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nikola Moro Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
Napoli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott McTominay MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.55 | 0.08 | 0.23 |
| Giovanni Di Lorenzo DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Alisson Santos AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.23 | 0.48 | 0.24 |
| Amir Rrahmani DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Rasmus Højlund FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Miguel Gutiérrez DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| Vanja Milinkovic-Savic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Alessandro Buongiorno DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Matteo Politano DMR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.22 |
| Giovane AMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| Stanislav Lobotka MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Eljif Elmas Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Billy Gilmour Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Leonardo Spinazzola Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Pasquale Mazzocchi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |