Napoli v Bologna — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 September 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 8 Sep 2026, 11:44 UTC

Napoli

16:00 UTC

Bologna

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 128h before kick-off

Napoli win

47.1%

model 45.8%

Draw

26.4%

model 25.3%

Bologna win

26.5%

model 28.8%

472626

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (476 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.0%
1-0 10.4%
2-1 9.2%
2-0 7.9%
0-1 7.9%

Goals

Over 2.5	50.5%	Under 2.5	49.5%
BTTS yes	53.8%	BTTS no	46.2%
Napoli 1+	78.4%	Napoli 2+	45.2%
Bologna 1+	68.7%	Bologna 2+	32.4%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.16. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

99/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Napoli or draw (1X)

Double chance · usually 66%

72.4% fair odds 1.38

moderate signal · 1768 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Not both to score by HT

GG/NG half time · usually 84%

83.2% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1245 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Napoli carry the stronger rating, 1658 Elo against 1535.
Napoli have created 1.46 xG a match over their last five while Bologna have allowed 1.08.
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
At home Napoli average 1.52 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Napoli have an estimated 47.1% win probability, against 26.5% for Bologna and 26.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.53 for Napoli and 1.16 for Bologna.

Why Napoli

Napoli carry the stronger rating, 1658 Elo against 1535. Napoli have created 1.46 xG a match over their last five while Bologna have allowed 1.08. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five. At home Napoli average 1.52 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.4%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Bologna can win

Bologna have created 1.47 xG a match over their last five while Napoli have allowed 1.33. Away from home Bologna average 1.17 xG a match.

Key players

Napoli's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Rasmus Højlund (0.43), Scott McTominay (0.38), Kevin De Bruyne (0.28). Bologna's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Roberto Piccoli (0.39), Santiago Castro (0.30), Jonathan Rowe (0.27).

Availability

2 of Napoli's top three contributors did not start their last match. 2 of Bologna's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Bologna's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Napoli: 55% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 15.0 faced, 0.10 xG a match from set pieces. Bologna: 56% possession, 14.4 shots a match, 10.4 faced, 0.62 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Napoli are the model's most likely outcome at 47.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.0%. Confidence 99/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Napoli are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DLWDLWWWLL last 10 scored 16 from 14.6 xG conceded 11 from 13.3 xG

Bologna are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

WLLDWWDLLD last 10 scored 11 from 14.7 xG conceded 13 from 10.8 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	462529	1.53–1.16	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	452629	1.44–1.09	1-1 13%	46%	51%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to win	45.8%	49.1%	39.4%	1.25×	2.04
Bologna to win	28.8%	27.6%	34.0%	0.81×	3.62
Draw	25.3%	27.6%	26.8%	1.03×	3.63

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli & not both score	24.5%	22.6%	22.6%	1.00×	4.42
Napoli & both teams score	21.3%	22.6%	16.9%	1.33×	4.43
Draw & both teams score	18.6%	17.8%	18.7%	0.95×	5.63
Bologna & not both score	14.9%	12.2%	20.8%	0.59×	8.21
Bologna & both teams score	14.0%	12.2%	13.3%	0.92×	8.21
Draw & not both score	6.8%	7.3%	8.2%	0.89×	13.69

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli & over 1.5	35.4%	37.5%	29.0%	1.29×	2.67
Napoli & under 3.5	31.6%	33.1%	29.4%	1.13×	3.02
Napoli & over 2.5	27.5%	25.5%	22.5%	1.13×	3.92
Bologna & under 3.5	21.2%	21.5%	26.6%	0.81×	4.65
Bologna & over 1.5	21.0%	21.5%	24.6%	0.87×	4.65
Draw & under 2.5	18.8%	17.6%	19.9%	0.88×	5.69
Draw & under 3.5	18.8%	17.6%	19.9%	0.88×	5.69
Draw & over 1.5	18.6%	17.6%	18.7%	0.94×	5.69
Napoli & under 2.5	18.3%	17.6%	17.0%	1.03×	5.69
Bologna & over 2.5	16.4%	17.6%	18.1%	0.97×	5.70
Napoli & over 3.5	14.2%	12.7%	10.1%	1.26×	7.86
Bologna & under 2.5	12.4%	12.7%	16.0%	0.79×	7.86
Napoli & under 1.5	10.4%	12.7%	10.5%	1.21×	7.87
Bologna & under 1.5	7.9%	7.5%	9.5%	0.79×	13.41
Bologna & over 3.5	7.7%	7.5%	7.4%	1.00×	13.41
Draw & under 1.5	6.8%	7.5%	8.2%	0.91×	13.41
Draw & over 2.5	6.5%	7.5%	6.9%	1.07×	13.41
Draw & over 3.5	6.5%	7.5%	6.9%	1.07×	13.41

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (1UP)	61.1%	63.8%	54.7%	1.17×	1.57
Bologna (1UP)	46.3%	44.5%	51.1%	0.87×	2.25

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (2UP)	45.8%	49.4%	41.0%	1.20×	2.02
Bologna (2UP)	28.8%	30.7%	36.5%	0.84×	3.25

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to win 2nd half	41.9%	39.5%	34.7%	1.14×	2.53
2nd half drawn	34.2%	33.8%	35.9%	0.94×	2.96
Bologna to win 2nd half	23.9%	22.4%	29.5%	0.76×	4.47

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna (+2.5)	90.8%	92.3%	92.4%	1.00×	1.08
Bologna (+1.5)	77.0%	78.5%	83.0%	0.95×	1.27
Napoli (+0.5)	71.2%	73.0%	66.0%	1.11×	1.37
Bologna (+0.5)	54.2%	51.7%	60.6%	0.85×	1.94
Napoli (-0.5)	45.8%	48.3%	39.4%	1.23×	2.07
Bologna (-0.5)	28.8%	27.0%	34.0%	0.79×	3.71
Napoli (-1.5)	23.0%	21.5%	17.0%	1.26×	4.66
Napoli (-2.5)	9.2%	7.8%	7.6%	1.02×	12.90

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna to concede	78.4%	76.1%	71.1%	1.07×	1.31
Bologna clean sheet	21.6%	23.9%	28.9%	0.83×	4.19

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna clean sheet in 1st half	57.4%	60.3%	58.8%	1.02×	1.66
Bologna to concede in 1st half	42.6%	39.7%	41.2%	0.96×	2.52

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna under 6.5 corners	90.8%	90.0%	—	—	1.11
Bologna under 5.5 corners	83.7%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Bologna under 4.5 corners	72.8%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Bologna over 2.5 corners	61.0%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Bologna under 3.5 corners	57.5%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Bologna over 3.5 corners	42.5%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Bologna under 2.5 corners	39.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Bologna over 4.5 corners	27.2%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Bologna over 5.5 corners	16.3%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
Bologna over 6.5 corners	9.2%	10.0%	—	—	9.97

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna under 3.5 goals	96.9%	97.3%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Bologna under 2.5 goals	88.8%	89.0%	88.4%	1.01×	1.12
Bologna over 0.5 goals	68.7%	67.3%	69.3%	0.97×	1.49
Bologna under 1.5 goals	67.7%	67.2%	65.4%	1.03×	1.49
Bologna over 1.5 goals	32.3%	32.8%	34.6%	0.95×	3.05
Bologna under 0.5 goals	31.3%	32.7%	30.7%	1.07×	3.06
Bologna over 2.5 goals	11.2%	11.0%	11.6%	0.95×	9.08
Bologna over 3.5 goals	3.1%	2.7%	2.9%	0.92×	37.33

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna under 1.5 in 1st half	90.9%	93.2%	90.2%	1.03×	1.07
Bologna under 0.5 in 1st half	60.4%	63.5%	59.0%	1.08×	1.58
Bologna over 0.5 in 1st half	39.6%	36.5%	41.0%	0.89×	2.74
Bologna over 1.5 in 1st half	9.1%	6.8%	9.8%	0.69×	14.68

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (away no bet)	64.4%	59.2%	59.5%	0.99×	1.69
Draw (away no bet)	35.6%	40.8%	40.5%	1.01×	2.45

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna even goals	54.9%	52.5%	55.7%	0.94×	1.91
Bologna odd goals	45.1%	47.5%	44.3%	1.07×	2.10

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	86.1%	86.4%	87.2%	0.99×	1.16
Both halves over 1.5 goals	13.9%	13.6%	12.8%	1.07×	7.33

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	63.3%	66.3%	59.6%	1.11×	1.51
Both halves under 1.5 goals	36.7%	33.7%	40.4%	0.83×	2.97

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	55.2%	59.1%	52.8%	1.12×	1.69
Napoli to score 2+ in a row	37.1%	37.3%	31.1%	1.20×	2.68
Bologna to score 2+ in a row	24.1%	21.8%	27.7%	0.79×	4.59
Either team to score 3+ in a row	19.3%	17.9%	17.3%	1.03×	5.60
Napoli to score 3+ in a row	13.2%	12.2%	9.7%	1.26×	8.19
Bologna to score 3+ in a row	6.3%	7.3%	7.7%	0.95×	13.69

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli corners (+3.5)	94.1%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Napoli corners (+2.5)	90.0%	89.5%	—	—	1.12
Napoli corners (+1.5)	84.1%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Bologna corners (+3.5)	66.1%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Bologna corners (+2.5)	55.8%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Napoli corners (-1.5)	55.3%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Bologna corners (+1.5)	44.7%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Napoli corners (-2.5)	44.2%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Napoli corners (-3.5)	33.9%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Bologna corners (-1.5)	15.9%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Bologna corners (-2.5)	10.0%	10.5%	—	—	9.56
Bologna corners (-3.5)	5.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.57

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	49.3%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
9-11 corners	27.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	23.3%	25.6%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	83.1%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	76.7%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	68.9%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	61.5%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	59.6%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	50.7%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	49.3%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	40.4%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 7.5 corners	38.5%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	31.1%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	23.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Over 12.5 corners	16.9%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.0%	11.6%	11.9%	0.98×	8.63
1-0	10.4%	11.6%	10.5%	1.10×	8.64
2-1	9.2%	7.3%	9.2%	0.79×	13.74
2-0	7.9%	7.3%	6.7%	1.09×	13.74
0-1	7.9%	7.3%	9.5%	0.77×	13.74
0-0	6.8%	7.3%	8.2%	0.89×	13.75
1-2	7.0%	7.3%	7.6%	0.96×	13.75
2-2	5.4%	7.3%	6.1%	1.20×	13.75
0-2	4.6%	1.8%	6.7%	0.27×	55.39
3-0	4.1%	1.8%	3.4%	0.53×	55.41
3-1	4.7%	1.8%	3.0%	0.60×	55.39
1-3	2.7%	1.8%	1.9%	0.95×	55.44
3-2	2.7%	1.8%	2.9%	0.62×	55.44
Any other score	2.7%	1.8%	2.8%	0.65×	55.44
0-3	1.8%	1.8%	3.3%	0.55×	55.46
2-3	2.1%	1.8%	3.0%	0.60×	55.46
4-0	1.6%	1.8%	1.6%	1.10×	55.47
4-1	1.8%	1.8%	1.1%	1.59×	55.46
0-4	0.5%	1.8%	1.0%	1.78×	55.50
1-4	0.8%	1.8%	0.8%	2.38×	55.49
2-4	0.6%	1.8%	0.1%	14.27×	55.49
3-3	1.1%	1.8%	0.9%	2.04×	55.48
3-4	0.3%	1.8%	0.3%	7.14×	55.50
4-2	1.0%	1.8%	0.1%	14.27×	55.48
4-3	0.4%	1.8%	0.3%	7.14×	55.50
4-4	0.1%	1.8%	0.3%	7.13×	55.51

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli leading at HT (DNB)	53.1%	55.2%	50.1%	1.10×	1.81
Bologna leading at HT (DNB)	46.9%	44.8%	49.9%	0.90×	2.23

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli or Bologna (12)	74.7%	72.4%	73.2%	0.99×	1.38
Napoli or draw (1X)	71.2%	72.4%	66.0%	1.10×	1.38
Bologna or draw (X2)	54.2%	50.9%	60.6%	0.84×	1.96

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli or draw at HT	74.3%	71.5%	72.6%	0.99×	1.40
Bologna or draw at HT	70.8%	71.4%	72.5%	0.99×	1.40
Napoli or Bologna at HT	54.9%	52.1%	54.8%	0.95×	1.92

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli or draw (1UP)	71.2%	77.3%	71.3%	1.08×	1.29
Bologna or draw (1UP)	54.2%	58.9%	66.3%	0.89×	1.70

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli or draw in 2nd half	76.1%	77.6%	70.5%	1.10×	1.29
Napoli or Bologna in 2nd half	65.8%	66.2%	64.1%	1.03×	1.51
Bologna or draw in 2nd half	58.1%	60.5%	65.3%	0.93×	1.65

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	63.9%	59.5%	64.4%	0.92×	1.68
Neither half drawn	36.1%	40.5%	35.6%	1.14×	2.47

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (DNB)	61.4%	62.2%	53.7%	1.16×	1.61
Bologna (DNB)	38.6%	37.8%	46.3%	0.82×	2.65

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to score first	53.0%	53.7%	47.7%	1.13×	1.86
Bologna to score first	40.2%	41.3%	44.2%	0.93×	2.42
No goal scored	6.8%	6.2%	8.2%	0.76×	16.03

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	53.8%	52.9%	48.6%	1.09×	1.89
Not both teams to score	46.2%	47.1%	51.4%	0.92×	2.12

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	41.8%	42.3%	36.9%	1.15×	2.37
Not both score & under 2.5	37.5%	37.4%	41.0%	0.91×	2.67
Both score & under 2.5	12.0%	11.7%	11.9%	0.99×	8.53
Not both score & over 2.5	8.7%	8.7%	10.5%	0.83×	11.45

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	85.4%	85.5%	86.9%	0.98×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	14.6%	14.5%	13.1%	1.11×	6.89

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	70.0%	69.6%	74.7%	0.93×	1.44
Both teams to score in 2nd half	30.0%	30.4%	25.3%	1.21×	3.29

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	58.2%	57.7%	63.1%	0.91×	1.73
Both score 2nd half only	25.0%	24.5%	20.5%	1.20×	4.09
Both score 1st half only	11.8%	11.6%	11.7%	0.98×	8.66
Both score in both halves	5.1%	6.4%	4.9%	1.30×	15.57

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	83.1%	83.2%	83.5%	1.00×	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	16.9%	16.8%	16.5%	1.02×	5.96

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	52.6%	54.7%	51.8%	1.06×	1.83
A half without a goal	47.4%	45.3%	48.2%	0.94×	2.21

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.6%	45.9%	48.0%	0.96×	2.18
4-6 goals	26.4%	27.7%	23.5%	1.18×	3.62
0-1 goals	25.0%	22.9%	27.9%	0.82×	4.38
7+ goals	2.0%	1.9%	0.9%	2.20×	51.51

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna to score exactly 1	36.4%	34.6%	34.8%	0.99×	2.89
Bologna to score exactly 0	31.3%	33.2%	30.7%	1.08×	3.01
Bologna to score exactly 2	21.1%	23.9%	23.1%	1.04×	4.18
Bologna to score 3+	11.2%	13.4%	11.6%	1.15×	7.49

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to score exactly 1	33.1%	30.6%	32.3%	0.95×	3.27
Napoli to score exactly 2	25.4%	27.0%	24.6%	1.10×	3.70
Napoli to score exactly 0	21.6%	22.9%	28.9%	0.79×	4.36
Napoli to score 3+	19.9%	18.6%	14.4%	1.29×	5.39

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	45.1%	47.9%	45.2%	1.06×	2.09
Napoli leading at HT	29.2%	28.6%	27.5%	1.04×	3.50
Bologna leading at HT	25.8%	28.5%	27.4%	1.04×	3.51

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli -1: 2	54.2%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Napoli -1: 1	23.0%	23.9%	—	—	4.18
Napoli -1: X	22.8%	23.9%	—	—	4.18

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna (0:1)	54.2%	53.6%	60.6%	0.88×	1.87
Napoli (0:1)	23.0%	24.4%	17.0%	1.43×	4.09
Draw (0:1)	22.8%	24.4%	22.5%	1.09×	4.10

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna (0:2)	77.0%	77.5%	83.0%	0.93×	1.29
Draw (0:2)	13.8%	11.8%	9.6%	1.23×	8.50
Napoli (0:2)	9.2%	7.2%	7.6%	0.95×	13.84

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna (0:3)	90.8%	92.5%	92.4%	1.00×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	6.2%	6.9%	4.5%	1.52×	14.52
Napoli (0:3)	3.0%	2.3%	3.2%	0.74×	42.93

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna (0:4)	97.0%	98.1%	96.8%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.2%	1.2%	2.3%	0.55×	80.22
Napoli (0:4)	0.8%	1.2%	1.0%	1.22×	80.93

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (1:0)	71.2%	73.7%	66.0%	1.12×	1.36
Draw (1:0)	17.3%	16.4%	19.9%	0.82×	6.12
Bologna (1:0)	11.6%	11.7%	14.1%	0.83×	8.51

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (2:0)	88.4%	89.3%	85.9%	1.04×	1.12
Draw (2:0)	8.0%	6.6%	8.5%	0.78×	15.11
Bologna (2:0)	3.6%	2.7%	5.8%	0.47×	36.92

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	50.7%	50.5%	46.6%	1.08×	1.98
Halves equal	24.6%	23.2%	26.8%	0.87×	4.30
1st half highest scoring	24.6%	23.2%	26.8%	0.87×	4.31

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to concede	68.7%	67.0%	69.3%	0.97×	1.49
Napoli clean sheet	31.3%	33.0%	30.7%	1.08×	3.03

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli clean sheet in 1st half	60.4%	63.3%	59.0%	1.07×	1.58
Napoli to concede in 1st half	39.6%	36.7%	41.0%	0.89×	2.72

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli over 2.5 corners	84.4%	81.0%	—	—	1.23
Napoli over 3.5 corners	72.1%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Napoli under 6.5 corners	66.7%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Napoli over 4.5 corners	58.5%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Napoli under 5.5 corners	54.8%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Napoli over 5.5 corners	45.2%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Napoli under 4.5 corners	41.5%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Napoli over 6.5 corners	33.3%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Napoli under 3.5 corners	27.9%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Napoli under 2.5 corners	15.6%	19.0%	—	—	5.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 3.5 goals	93.0%	92.1%	95.5%	0.96×	1.09
Napoli under 2.5 goals	80.1%	82.3%	85.6%	0.96×	1.21
Napoli over 0.5 goals	78.4%	76.8%	71.1%	1.08×	1.30
Napoli under 1.5 goals	54.7%	52.9%	61.1%	0.86×	1.89
Napoli over 1.5 goals	45.3%	47.1%	38.9%	1.21×	2.12
Napoli under 0.5 goals	21.6%	23.2%	28.9%	0.80×	4.31
Napoli over 2.5 goals	19.9%	17.7%	14.4%	1.23×	5.67
Napoli over 3.5 goals	7.0%	7.9%	4.5%	1.74×	12.67

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 1.5 in 1st half	89.2%	87.9%	90.2%	0.97×	1.14
Napoli under 0.5 in 1st half	57.4%	60.0%	58.8%	1.02×	1.67
Napoli over 0.5 in 1st half	42.6%	40.0%	41.2%	0.97×	2.50
Napoli over 1.5 in 1st half	10.8%	12.1%	9.8%	1.23×	8.26

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	46.8%	51.3%	44.1%	1.16×	1.95
Bologna (home no bet)	53.2%	48.7%	55.9%	0.87×	2.05

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli even goals	52.3%	50.3%	56.6%	0.89×	1.99
Napoli odd goals	47.7%	49.7%	43.4%	1.15×	2.01

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	34.7%	30.6%	34.3%	0.89×	3.27
HT 1-0	19.3%	18.9%	18.3%	1.03×	5.28
HT 0-1	17.5%	18.9%	18.4%	1.03×	5.29
HT 1-1	9.7%	7.7%	10.5%	0.74×	12.97
HT 2-0	5.4%	7.7%	5.6%	1.38×	13.03
HT 0-2	4.4%	2.5%	5.4%	0.46×	39.75
Any other HT score	3.3%	2.5%	3.0%	0.83×	39.81
HT 2-1	2.7%	2.5%	2.3%	1.10×	39.85
HT 1-2	2.4%	2.5%	2.5%	0.99×	39.86
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.5%	0.6%	3.96×	39.96

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli at HT / Napoli at FT	23.5%	21.5%	21.3%	1.01×	4.66
Draw at HT / Napoli at FT	18.9%	16.8%	15.8%	1.06×	5.96
Bologna at HT / Bologna at FT	16.6%	16.8%	19.2%	0.87×	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.4%	16.7%	16.7%	1.00×	5.97
Draw at HT / Bologna at FT	10.8%	11.9%	13.0%	0.92×	8.37
Bologna at HT / Draw at FT	5.8%	6.6%	5.9%	1.10×	15.25
Napoli at HT / Draw at FT	4.2%	3.4%	4.4%	0.77×	29.34
Bologna at HT / Napoli at FT	3.4%	3.4%	2.5%	1.35×	29.37
Napoli at HT / Bologna at FT	1.5%	3.4%	2.0%	1.68×	29.45

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to score last	53.0%	53.7%	48.4%	1.11×	1.86
Bologna to score last	40.2%	40.2%	43.6%	0.92×	2.49
No goal scored	6.8%	6.2%	8.2%	0.76×	16.03

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.2%	93.7%	91.8%	1.02×	1.07
Napoli to lead by 1 at any time	61.1%	64.3%	54.7%	1.18×	1.56
Bologna to lead by 1 at any time	46.3%	46.1%	51.1%	0.90×	2.17
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	46.0%	46.1%	42.6%	1.08×	2.17
Napoli to lead by 2 at any time	29.4%	26.1%	22.9%	1.14×	3.84
Bologna to lead by 2 at any time	16.9%	17.7%	20.1%	0.88×	5.67
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	16.3%	17.6%	14.5%	1.21×	5.67
Napoli to lead by 3 at any time	11.3%	11.3%	8.3%	1.36×	8.85
Bologna to lead by 3 at any time	4.9%	2.7%	6.3%	0.42×	37.65

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli most corners	66.2%	64.6%	—	—	1.55
Bologna most corners	24.0%	25.8%	—	—	3.87
Corners level	9.8%	8.4%	—	—	11.89

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.6%	87.9%	89.1%	0.99×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.6%	78.9%	80.7%	0.98×	1.27
2-6 goals	73.0%	73.6%	71.3%	1.03×	1.36
2-5 goals	69.4%	68.4%	69.4%	0.98×	1.46
1-3 goals	64.8%	62.3%	67.7%	0.92×	1.61
2-4 goals	61.4%	62.3%	61.0%	1.02×	1.61
3-6 goals	48.4%	48.0%	46.5%	1.03×	2.08
2-3 goals	46.6%	48.0%	48.0%	1.00×	2.08
3-5 goals	44.9%	43.6%	44.6%	0.98×	2.29
1-2 goals	42.8%	43.6%	44.7%	0.98×	2.29
3-4 goals	36.9%	38.8%	36.1%	1.08×	2.58
4-6 goals	26.4%	30.4%	23.5%	1.30×	3.29
4-5 goals	22.8%	24.7%	21.6%	1.15×	4.04
5-6 goals	11.6%	13.4%	10.5%	1.28×	7.44
7+ goals	2.0%	2.0%	0.9%	2.29×	49.50

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli never behind	46.9%	53.6%	48.9%	1.10×	1.87
Bologna never behind	32.2%	36.1%	45.3%	0.80×	2.77

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.8%	50.1%	51.8%	0.97×	1.99
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.9%	48.2%	1.03×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	56.0%	55.3%	56.8%	0.97×	1.81
Odd goals in 1st half	44.0%	44.7%	43.2%	1.04×	2.24

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.9%	51.7%	51.4%	1.01×	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.1%	48.3%	48.6%	0.99×	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.4%	93.0%	97.2%	0.96×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	93.2%	93.0%	91.8%	1.01×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	86.4%	88.7%	88.8%	1.00×	1.13
Over 1.5 goals	75.0%	78.2%	72.1%	1.08×	1.28
Under 3.5 goals	71.6%	72.4%	75.8%	0.96×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	50.5%	53.5%	47.2%	1.13×	1.87
Under 2.5 goals	49.5%	46.5%	52.8%	0.88×	2.15
Over 3.5 goals	28.4%	27.6%	24.2%	1.14×	3.62
Under 1.5 goals	25.0%	21.8%	27.9%	0.78×	4.59
Over 4.5 goals	13.6%	11.3%	11.2%	1.00×	8.88
Under 0.5 goals	6.8%	7.0%	8.2%	0.86×	14.19
Over 5.5 goals	5.6%	7.0%	2.8%	2.53×	14.22

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.9%	97.2%	99.1%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.9%	92.8%	97.0%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	84.0%	80.8%	87.1%	0.93×	1.24
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	66.9%	68.0%	62.9%	1.08×	1.47
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	63.5%	62.4%	68.5%	0.91×	1.60
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	36.5%	37.6%	31.5%	1.19×	2.66
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	33.1%	32.0%	37.1%	0.86×	3.13
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	16.0%	19.2%	12.9%	1.49×	5.20
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.1%	7.2%	3.0%	2.39×	13.80
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.1%	2.8%	0.9%	3.07×	36.13

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	90.8%	92.2%	91.9%	1.00×	1.09
Under 1.5 in 1st half	71.4%	72.4%	70.8%	1.02×	1.38
Over 0.5 in 1st half	65.3%	68.5%	65.7%	1.04×	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	34.7%	31.5%	34.3%	0.92×	3.18
Over 1.5 in 1st half	28.6%	27.6%	29.2%	0.95×	3.62
Over 2.5 in 1st half	9.2%	7.8%	8.1%	0.97×	12.77

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	80.5%	82.0%	77.9%	1.05×	1.22
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	77.5%	80.3%	82.3%	0.97×	1.25
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	48.6%	51.9%	43.2%	1.20×	1.93
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	51.4%	48.1%	56.8%	0.85×	2.08
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	22.5%	19.7%	17.7%	1.12×	5.07
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	19.5%	18.0%	22.1%	0.81×	5.56

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna not to score in both halves	80.9%	81.5%	78.8%	1.03×	1.23
Napoli not to score in both halves	73.4%	70.4%	76.3%	0.92×	1.42
Napoli to score in both halves	26.6%	29.6%	23.7%	1.25×	3.38
Bologna to score in both halves	19.1%	18.5%	21.2%	0.87×	5.39

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	53.8%	54.8%	48.6%	1.13×	1.83
Only Napoli scores	24.5%	22.9%	22.6%	1.01×	4.36
Only Bologna scores	14.9%	10.9%	20.8%	0.52×	9.20
Neither team scores	6.8%	6.6%	8.2%	0.81×	15.05

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.5%	21.6%	25.0%	0.86×	4.64
Exactly 3 goals	22.0%	21.5%	23.1%	0.93×	4.64
Exactly 1 goals	18.2%	18.6%	19.8%	0.94×	5.38
Exactly 4 goals	14.8%	12.4%	13.1%	0.94×	8.07
Exactly 5 goals	8.0%	7.6%	8.6%	0.89×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	6.8%	7.6%	8.2%	0.93×	13.14
6 or more goals	5.6%	7.6%	2.8%	2.74×	13.16

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	48.6%	51.0%	43.2%	1.18×	1.96
1 goal in 2nd half	31.9%	33.2%	34.8%	0.95×	3.02
No goals in 2nd half	19.5%	18.4%	22.1%	0.83×	5.42

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna not to win both halves	93.8%	93.4%	91.4%	1.02×	1.07
Napoli not to win both halves	87.8%	87.6%	90.3%	0.97×	1.14
Napoli to win both halves	12.2%	12.4%	9.7%	1.28×	8.04
Bologna to win both halves	6.2%	6.6%	8.6%	0.77×	15.17

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to win either half	58.8%	59.5%	52.5%	1.13×	1.68
Bologna to win neither half	56.5%	59.4%	51.6%	1.15×	1.68
Bologna to win either half	43.5%	40.6%	48.4%	0.84×	2.47
Napoli to win neither half	41.2%	40.5%	47.5%	0.85×	2.47

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna not to win to nil	85.1%	88.2%	79.2%	1.11×	1.13
Napoli not to win to nil	75.5%	77.1%	77.4%	1.00×	1.30
Napoli to win to nil	24.5%	22.9%	22.6%	1.01×	4.36
Bologna to win to nil	14.9%	11.8%	20.8%	0.57×	8.47

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.3%	28.0%	26.8%	1.05×	3.57
Napoli by 1	22.8%	23.7%	22.5%	1.06×	4.21
Bologna by 1	17.3%	17.0%	19.9%	0.85×	5.89
Napoli by 2	13.8%	11.9%	9.6%	1.24×	8.42
Napoli by 3+	9.2%	7.1%	7.6%	0.94×	14.06
Bologna by 2	8.0%	7.1%	8.5%	0.84×	14.09
Bologna by 3+	3.6%	2.8%	5.8%	0.49×	35.26