Napoli v Como — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 1 November 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 14
On target
8 – 2
Shots in box
6 – 5
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.08 – 0.84
Goals − xG
-0.76 – -1.19
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Napoli win
60.7%
Draw
24.1%
Como win
15.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Napoli are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLWDLWWWLL last 10
scored 16
from 14.6 xG
conceded 11
from 13.3 xG
Como have scored 19 from 18.8 expected and conceded 10 from 10.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLWDWWWDWW last 10
scored 19
from 18.8 xG
conceded 10
from 10.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.83–0.81 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.66–0.96 | 1-0 12% | 49% | 50% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Napoli 0.76 xGComo 1.19 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Napoli attacking right
Como attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Napoli |
Amir Rrahmani | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Leonardo Spinazzola |
| 4' |
 Como |
Maxence Caqueret | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 15' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 21' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
Como |
Álvaro Morata | 0.76 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 25' |
Como |
Álvaro Morata | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 26' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 31' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Franck Zambo |
| 41' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | David Neres |
| 42' |
Napoli |
Matteo Politano | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 44' |
Napoli |
Eljif Elmas | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 45' |
Como |
Assane Diao | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Máximo Perrone |
| 46' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Maxence Caqueret |
| 46' |
Napoli |
Miguel Gutiérrez | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Como |
Assane Diao | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Como |
Diego Carlos | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jacobo Ramón |
| 54' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 56' |
Napoli |
Matteo Politano | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Franck Zambo |
| 58' |
Napoli |
Matteo Politano | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Scott McTominay |
| 60' |
Como |
Ivan Smolcic | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Álvaro Morata |
| 61' |
Como |
Álvaro Morata | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Ivan Smolcic |
| 62' |
Como |
Jacobo Ramón | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Maxence Caqueret |
| 69' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 79' |
Napoli |
Rasmus Højlund | 0.35 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Matteo Politano |
| 83' |
Como |
Assane Diao | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Da Cunha |
| 88' |
Napoli |
Alessandro Buongiorno | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Eljif Elmas |
Players
Napoli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Højlund FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Scott McTominay MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.03 | 0.25 |
| Matteo Politano FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| Alessandro Buongiorno DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Amir Rrahmani DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Giovanni Di Lorenzo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Franck Zambo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.53 |
| Vanja Milinkovic-Savic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David Neres FWL | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Eljif Elmas Sub | 53 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| Leonardo Spinazzola DL | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Miguel Gutiérrez Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Billy Gilmour MC | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Noa Lang Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Stanislav Lobotka Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lorenzo Lucca Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Como
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Paz AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Assane Diao AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Jacobo Ramón DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.21 |
| Máximo Perrone DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.20 |
| Álex Valle DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Jean Butez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Álvaro Morata FW | 86 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.90 | 0.05 | 0.19 |
| Jayden Addai AMR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Diego Carlos Sub | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Ivan Smolcic DR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| Maxence Caqueret DMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| Stefan Posch Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Lucas Da Cunha Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Marc-Oliver Kempf DC | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tasos Douvikas Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jesús Rodriguez Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |