Napoli v Cremonese — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 24 April 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
25 – 7
On target
10 – 4
Shots in box
15 – 4
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
1.18 – 0.03
Goals − xG
+0.76 – -0.47
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Napoli win
67.1%
Draw
20.1%
Cremonese win
12.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Napoli are conceding fewer than expected — 2.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLWDLWWWL last 10
scored 15
from 13.2 xG
conceded 8
from 10.4 xG
Cremonese are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWLLDLLWWL last 10
scored 10
from 8.8 xG
conceded 17
from 11.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.89–0.66 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.07–0.67 | 2-0 14% | 52% | 43% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Napoli 3.24 xGCremonese 0.47 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Napoli attacking right
Cremonese attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Napoli |
Rasmus Højlund | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Scott McTominay |
| 1' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Rasmus Højlund |
| 2' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Kevin De Bruyne |
| 4' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Stanislav Lobotka |
| 7' |
Napoli |
Amir Rrahmani | 0.30 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Kevin De Bruyne |
| 7' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 27' |
Napoli |
Miguel Gutiérrez | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alessandro Buongiorno |
| 29' |
Napoli |
Alisson Santos | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mathías Olivera |
| 31' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kevin De Bruyne |
| 34' |
Napoli |
Miguel Gutiérrez | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Rasmus Højlund |
| 37' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mathías Olivera |
| 42' |
Napoli |
Rasmus Højlund | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Amir Rrahmani |
| 44' |
Napoli |
Rasmus Højlund | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Matteo Politano |
| 46' |
 Cremonese |
Martín Payero | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 47' |
Napoli |
Kevin De Bruyne | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 51' |
Napoli |
Alisson Santos | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Vanja Milinkovic-Savic |
| 56' |
Napoli |
Alisson Santos | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Scott McTominay |
| 59' |
Napoli |
Kevin De Bruyne | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Miguel Gutiérrez |
| 59' |
Napoli |
Rasmus Højlund | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Scott McTominay |
| 75' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alisson Santos |
| 78' |
Napoli |
Amir Rrahmani | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Miguel Gutiérrez |
| 78' |
Napoli |
Billy Gilmour | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Miguel Gutiérrez |
| 79' |
Cremonese |
Filippo Terracciano | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Martín Payero |
| 80' |
Napoli |
Giovane | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 82' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.76 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 84' |
Cremonese |
Federico Bonazzoli | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Tommaso Barbieri |
| 84' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.53 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alisson Santos |
| 88' |
Cremonese |
Federico Bonazzoli | 0.29 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Tommaso Barbieri |
| 88' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Eljif Elmas |
| 89' |
Cremonese |
Tommaso Barbieri | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alessio Zerbin |
| 90' |
Cremonese |
Alessio Zerbin | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 90' |
Cremonese |
Francesco Folino | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jari Vandeputte |
Players
Napoli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott McTominay MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 2.01 | 0.23 | 1.68 |
| Amir Rrahmani DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.04 | 0.70 |
| Alisson Santos AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.59 | 1.20 |
| Miguel Gutiérrez DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.25 | 1.35 |
| Vanja Milinkovic-Savic GK | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.58 |
| Alessandro Buongiorno DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1.17 |
| Kevin De Bruyne AMC | 78 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.24 | 0.36 | 0.94 |
| Rasmus Højlund FW | 64 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.35 | 0.67 |
| Stanislav Lobotka MC | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.50 |
| Matteo Politano DMR | 56 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.51 |
| Mathías Olivera DC | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.64 |
| Sam Beukema Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Pasquale Mazzocchi Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Billy Gilmour Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Giovane Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Eljif Elmas Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
Cremonese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federico Bonazzoli FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Martín Payero ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.38 |
| Filippo Terracciano DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Emil Audero GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Federico Baschirotto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Giuseppe Pezzella DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Youssef Maleh MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sebastiano Luperto DC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Romano Floriani MR | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David Okereke FW | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Warren Bondo MC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessio Zerbin Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Jari Vandeputte Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.29 |
| Alberto Grassi Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Francesco Folino Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Tommaso Barbieri Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.35 | 0.41 |