Napoli v Genoa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 11 May 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
23 – 8
On target
10 – 2
Shots in box
18 – 6
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.29 – 0.38
Goals − xG
-0.35 – +1.35
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Napoli win
53.0%
Draw
29.8%
Genoa win
17.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Napoli are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLWDLWWWLL last 10
scored 16
from 14.6 xG
conceded 11
from 13.3 xG
Genoa are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWLDDLLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.49–0.76 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.59–0.68 | 1-0 16% | 39% | 39% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Napoli 2.35 xGGenoa 0.65 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Napoli attacking right
Genoa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Napoli |
Matteo Politano | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Amir Rrahmani |
| 8' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Franck Zambo |
| 14' |
Napoli |
Romelu Lukaku | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Scott McTominay |
| 23' |
Napoli |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Giovanni Di Lorenzo |
| 26' |
 Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Junior Messias |
| 28' |
Napoli |
Giovanni Di Lorenzo | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Leonardo Spinazzola |
| 29' |
Genoa |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Vitinha |
| 29' |
Genoa |
Patrizio Masini | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 31' |
Genoa |
Honest Ahanor | 0.31 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Junior Messias |
| 31' |
Napoli |
Alex Meret | 0.00 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 46' |
Napoli |
Romelu Lukaku | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Leonardo Spinazzola |
| 47' |
Napoli |
Giovanni Di Lorenzo | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Matteo Politano |
| 51' |
Napoli |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 54' |
Napoli |
Franck Zambo | 0.55 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 58' |
Napoli |
Franck Zambo | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Matteo Politano |
| 60' |
Genoa |
Brooke Norton-Cuffy | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Stefano Sabelli |
| 61' |
Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Honest Ahanor |
| 63' |
Napoli |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Scott McTominay |
| 66' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Giacomo Raspadori |
| 67' |
Napoli |
Billy Gilmour | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Romelu Lukaku |
| 72' |
Napoli |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Amir Rrahmani |
| 73' |
Napoli |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Billy Gilmour |
| 73' |
Napoli |
Matteo Politano | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 78' |
Napoli |
Matteo Politano | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Romelu Lukaku |
| 83' |
Genoa |
Johan Vásquez | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Goal | Aarón Martín |
| 85' |
Napoli |
Matteo Politano | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Billy Gilmour |
| 86' |
Napoli |
Giovanni Di Lorenzo | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Matteo Politano |
| 90' |
Genoa |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lorenzo Venturino |
| 90' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | David Neres |
| 92' |
Napoli |
Philip Billing | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | David Neres |
| 93' |
Napoli |
Romelu Lukaku | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Billy Gilmour |
Players
Genoa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Pinamonti FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Johan Vásquez DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Patrizio Masini DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Brooke Norton-Cuffy AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Morten Frendrup DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Benjamin Siegrist GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Honest Ahanor DL | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Stefano Sabelli DR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Vitinha AML | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| Sebastian Otoa DC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Junior Messias AMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.12 |
| Aarón Martín Sub | 28 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Mattia Bani Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Lior Kasa Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lorenzo Venturino Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Alessandro Zanoli Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
Napoli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franck Zambo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.57 | 0.10 | 1.19 |
| Romelu Lukaku FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.44 | 0.11 | 0.51 |
| Giovanni Di Lorenzo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.09 | 0.23 |
| Scott McTominay MC | 90 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.74 | 1.23 |
| Matteo Politano DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 1.08 |
| Amir Rrahmani DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 1.14 |
| Alex Meret GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Leonardo Spinazzola DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.64 |
| Mathías Olivera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.06 |
| Giacomo Raspadori FW | 83 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.67 | 0.03 | 0.76 |
| Billy Gilmour Sub | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.94 |
| Stanislav Lobotka MC | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Philip Billing Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| David Neres Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |