Napoli v Lazio — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 18 April 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 14
On target
0 – 7
Shots in box
7 – 9
xG per shot
0.04 – 0.25
Set-piece xG
0.19 – 1.29
Goals − xG
-0.52 – -1.56
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Napoli win
52.7%
Draw
25.9%
Lazio win
21.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Napoli are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLWDLWWWLL last 10
scored 16
from 14.6 xG
conceded 11
from 13.3 xG
Lazio have scored 12 from 12.7 expected and conceded 12 from 11.6 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLWDWLLWWW last 10
scored 12
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 11.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.42–0.79 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.42–0.81 | 1-0 15% | 39% | 42% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Napoli 0.52 xGLazio 3.56 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Napoli attacking right
Lazio attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Lazio |
Matteo Cancellieri | 0.54 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Kenneth Taylor |
| 6' |
Lazio |
Manuel Lazzari | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Toma Basic |
| 9' |
Lazio |
Toma Basic | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Matteo Cancellieri |
| 21' |
 Napoli |
Kevin De Bruyne | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Matteo Politano |
| 27' |
Napoli |
Franck Zambo | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 30' |
Lazio |
Mattia Zaccagni | 0.76 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 30' |
Lazio |
Mattia Zaccagni | 0.53 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 34' |
Lazio |
Matteo Cancellieri | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Toma Basic |
| 34' |
Lazio |
Tijjani Noslin | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 38' |
Napoli |
Sam Beukema | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Alessandro Buongiorno |
| 41' |
Lazio |
Manuel Lazzari | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 42' |
Lazio |
Nuno Tavares | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mattia Zaccagni |
| 45' |
Napoli |
Mathías Olivera | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Lazio |
Kenneth Taylor | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Toma Basic |
| 48' |
Napoli |
Rasmus Højlund | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Leonardo Spinazzola |
| 49' |
Lazio |
Tijjani Noslin | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mattia Zaccagni |
| 56' |
Lazio |
Tijjani Noslin | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nuno Tavares |
| 56' |
Lazio |
Toma Basic | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Matteo Cancellieri |
| 58' |
Napoli |
Alisson Santos | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Rasmus Højlund |
| 68' |
Lazio |
Nuno Tavares | 0.63 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Tijjani Noslin |
| 69' |
Napoli |
Matteo Politano | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 79' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Miguel Gutiérrez |
| 82' |
Napoli |
Rasmus Højlund | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alisson Santos |
| 83' |
Napoli |
Eljif Elmas | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alisson Santos |
| 92' |
Napoli |
Rasmus Højlund | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Alisson Santos |
| 94' |
Napoli |
Giovane | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pasquale Mazzocchi |
Players
Lazio
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tijjani Noslin FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.73 | 0.63 | 1.65 |
| Nuno Tavares DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.68 | 0.11 | 1.39 |
| Matteo Cancellieri FWR | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.57 | 0.16 | 0.83 |
| Kenneth Taylor MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.54 | 0.64 |
| Alessio Romagnoli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Edoardo Motta GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Manuel Lazzari DR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Toma Basic MC | 72 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.14 | 0.87 |
| Mattia Zaccagni FWL | 62 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1.29 | 0.18 | 0.81 |
| Mario Gila DC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| Danilo Cataldi MC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Oliver Provstgaard Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Patric Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Boulaye Dia Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fisayo Dele-Bashiru Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Elseid Hysaj Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Napoli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Højlund FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.04 | 0.19 |
| Sam Beukema DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Scott McTominay AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Mathías Olivera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Vanja Milinkovic-Savic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Alessandro Buongiorno DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| Matteo Politano DMR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| Leonardo Spinazzola DML | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| Stanislav Lobotka MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Franck Zambo MC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kevin De Bruyne AMC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Eljif Elmas Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Alisson Santos Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| Giovane Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Miguel Gutiérrez Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| Pasquale Mazzocchi Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.09 |