Napoli v Lazio — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 8 November 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Napoli

14:00 UTC

Lazio

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 21 Oct, 11:05 · 435h before kick-off

Napoli win

43.2%

model 42.2%

Draw

27.4%

model 27.0%

Lazio win

29.4%

model 30.8%

432729

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.8%
1-0 11.5%
0-1 9.5%
2-1 8.6%
0-0 8.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	44.7%	Under 2.5	55.3%
BTTS yes	49.8%	BTTS no	50.2%
Napoli 1+	74.1%	Napoli 2+	39.1%
Lazio 1+	67.1%	Lazio 2+	30.6%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.11. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

91/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Lazio to concede in 1st half

Away clean sheet 1HT · usually 42%

55.6% fair odds 1.80

moderate signal · 847 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Lazio (0:2)

Handicap 0:2 · usually 83%

83.5% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out Napoli.

Risk factors

Lazio have scored 2.40 a match from 1.44 xG over five matches, which usually corrects.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Napoli have an estimated 43.2% win probability, against 29.4% for Lazio and 27.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.35 for Napoli and 1.11 for Lazio.

Why Napoli

Nothing in the data singles out Napoli.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.4%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.35 to 1.11. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Lazio can win

Lazio carry the stronger rating, 1690 Elo against 1660. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five. Away from home Lazio average 1.23 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Napoli were missing 1.51 expected goal involvements a match against 0.75.

Key players

Napoli's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Rasmus Højlund (0.42), Scott McTominay (0.38), Kevin De Bruyne (0.35). Lazio's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Mattia Zaccagni (0.39), Davide Frattesi (0.28), Daniel Maldini (0.23).

Availability

2 of Napoli's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Lazio's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Napoli: 56% possession, 16.2 shots a match, 14.8 faced, 0.25 xG a match from set pieces. Lazio: 50% possession, 13.0 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.23 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-21 11:56 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-21 15:05 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Napoli are the model's most likely outcome at 43.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.8%. Confidence 91/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Napoli are finishing below their chances — 3.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

LWWWLLWDWL last 10 scored 16 from 19.2 xG conceded 10 from 10.4 xG

Lazio are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LLWWWWDWWW last 10 scored 16 from 14.4 xG conceded 10 from 14.2 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	422731	1.35–1.11	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	472726	1.42–1.00	1-0 13%	43%	48%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to win	49.3%	47.4%	40.0%	1.18×	2.11
Draw	27.1%	27.9%	26.4%	1.06×	3.58
Lazio to win	23.6%	24.4%	33.7%	0.73×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli & not both score	31.2%	29.6%	22.6%	1.31×	3.38
Napoli & both teams score	18.1%	18.0%	17.5%	1.02×	5.57
Draw & both teams score	17.1%	18.0%	18.6%	0.96×	5.57
Lazio & not both score	14.3%	13.3%	20.6%	0.65×	7.53
Draw & not both score	10.1%	13.3%	7.9%	1.67×	7.54
Lazio & both teams score	9.3%	8.3%	13.2%	0.63×	12.00

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli & under 3.5	37.8%	34.9%	29.6%	1.18×	2.87
Napoli & over 1.5	35.1%	34.9%	29.9%	1.17×	2.87
Napoli & over 2.5	25.0%	26.1%	23.3%	1.12×	3.84
Napoli & under 2.5	24.2%	21.6%	16.8%	1.28×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	22.6%	21.6%	19.7%	1.10×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	22.6%	21.6%	19.7%	1.10×	4.63
Lazio & under 3.5	19.6%	18.0%	26.3%	0.68×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	17.1%	18.0%	18.6%	0.97×	5.56
Lazio & over 1.5	14.7%	12.8%	24.6%	0.52×	7.79
Napoli & under 1.5	14.2%	12.8%	10.2%	1.26×	7.79
Lazio & under 2.5	12.8%	12.8%	15.6%	0.82×	7.79
Napoli & over 3.5	11.5%	12.8%	10.6%	1.21×	7.79
Lazio & over 2.5	10.7%	12.8%	18.1%	0.71×	7.79
Draw & under 1.5	10.1%	12.8%	7.9%	1.62×	7.79
Lazio & under 1.5	8.9%	7.9%	9.1%	0.87×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	4.5%	4.8%	6.9%	0.70×	20.81
Draw & over 3.5	4.5%	4.8%	6.9%	0.70×	20.81
Lazio & over 3.5	4.0%	4.8%	7.5%	0.64×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (1UP)	61.8%	62.8%	55.3%	1.14×	1.59
Lazio (1UP)	38.7%	34.2%	50.5%	0.68×	2.92

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (2UP)	49.3%	50.2%	41.8%	1.20×	1.99
Lazio (2UP)	23.6%	23.5%	36.2%	0.65×	4.26

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	43.7%	42.0%	35.0%	1.20×	2.38
Napoli to win 2nd half	34.4%	34.4%	35.0%	0.98×	2.91
Lazio to win 2nd half	21.9%	24.2%	30.2%	0.80×	4.13

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio under 1.5 in 2nd half	92.2%	92.0%	85.1%	1.08×	1.09
Lazio under 0.5 in 2nd half	63.3%	60.1%	50.0%	1.20×	1.66
Lazio over 0.5 in 2nd half	36.7%	39.9%	50.0%	0.80×	2.51
Lazio over 1.5 in 2nd half	7.8%	8.0%	14.9%	0.54×	12.45

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 1.5 in 2nd half	86.2%	88.2%	81.5%	1.08×	1.13
Napoli under 0.5 in 2nd half	52.3%	55.1%	46.3%	1.19×	1.82
Napoli over 0.5 in 2nd half	47.7%	44.9%	53.7%	0.84×	2.23
Napoli over 1.5 in 2nd half	13.8%	11.8%	18.5%	0.64×	8.50

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (+2.5)	90.8%	92.1%	92.3%	1.00×	1.09
Napoli (+0.5)	76.4%	78.5%	66.3%	1.18×	1.27
Lazio (+1.5)	75.9%	78.5%	82.5%	0.95×	1.27
Lazio (+0.5)	50.7%	52.4%	60.0%	0.87×	1.91
Napoli (-0.5)	49.3%	47.6%	40.0%	1.19×	2.10
Napoli (-1.5)	24.1%	21.5%	17.5%	1.23×	4.65
Lazio (-0.5)	23.6%	21.5%	33.7%	0.64×	4.65
Napoli (-2.5)	9.2%	7.9%	7.7%	1.03×	12.67

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to concede	75.6%	78.7%	71.6%	1.10×	1.27
Lazio clean sheet	24.4%	21.3%	28.4%	0.75×	4.70

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to concede in 1st half	53.4%	50.6%	42.1%	1.20×	1.98
Lazio clean sheet in 1st half	46.6%	49.4%	57.9%	0.85×	2.02

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio clean sheet in 2nd half	52.3%	54.8%	46.3%	1.19×	1.82
Lazio to concede in 2nd half	47.7%	45.2%	53.7%	0.84×	2.21

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio under 6.5 corners	92.1%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Lazio under 5.5 corners	85.7%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Lazio under 4.5 corners	75.5%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Lazio under 3.5 corners	60.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Lazio over 2.5 corners	58.0%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Lazio under 2.5 corners	42.1%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Lazio over 3.5 corners	39.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Lazio over 4.5 corners	24.5%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Lazio over 5.5 corners	14.3%	14.8%	—	—	6.77
Lazio over 6.5 corners	7.9%	10.1%	—	—	9.90

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio under 3.5 goals	98.7%	97.5%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Lazio under 2.5 goals	94.0%	92.3%	88.1%	1.05×	1.08
Lazio under 1.5 goals	77.8%	76.3%	65.0%	1.17×	1.31
Lazio over 0.5 goals	58.7%	59.4%	69.6%	0.85×	1.68
Lazio under 0.5 goals	41.3%	40.6%	30.4%	1.33×	2.46
Lazio over 1.5 goals	22.2%	23.7%	35.0%	0.68×	4.21
Lazio over 2.5 goals	6.0%	7.7%	11.9%	0.64×	13.07
Lazio over 3.5 goals	1.3%	2.5%	2.9%	0.87×	39.97

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio under 1.5 in 1st half	93.1%	93.9%	89.9%	1.04×	1.07
Lazio under 0.5 in 1st half	65.2%	69.2%	58.8%	1.18×	1.45
Lazio over 0.5 in 1st half	34.8%	30.8%	41.2%	0.75×	3.25
Lazio over 1.5 in 1st half	6.9%	6.1%	10.1%	0.60×	16.44

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio scores equally in both	49.7%	48.3%	43.4%	1.11×	2.07
Lazio scores more in 2nd half	26.2%	26.3%	32.8%	0.80×	3.81
Lazio scores more in 1st half	24.1%	22.0%	23.9%	0.92×	4.54

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (away no bet)	64.5%	62.0%	60.2%	1.03×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	35.5%	38.0%	39.8%	0.96×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio even goals	58.5%	57.0%	55.5%	1.03×	1.76
Lazio odd goals	41.5%	43.0%	44.5%	0.97×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	89.9%	88.1%	87.3%	1.01×	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	10.1%	11.9%	12.7%	0.93×	8.41

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	53.6%	50.8%	60.2%	0.84×	1.97
Both halves under 1.5 goals	46.4%	49.2%	39.8%	1.24×	2.03

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	47.8%	46.1%	53.4%	0.86×	2.17
Napoli to score 2+ in a row	35.0%	36.5%	31.7%	1.15×	2.74
Lazio to score 2+ in a row	16.4%	16.2%	27.8%	0.58×	6.16
Either team to score 3+ in a row	15.6%	16.2%	17.9%	0.91×	6.17
Napoli to score 3+ in a row	12.2%	12.0%	10.1%	1.19×	8.31
Lazio to score 3+ in a row	3.5%	2.6%	7.9%	0.33×	38.62

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli corners (+3.5)	95.7%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Napoli corners (+2.5)	92.5%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Napoli corners (+1.5)	87.7%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Napoli corners (-1.5)	62.2%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Lazio corners (+3.5)	58.8%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Napoli corners (-2.5)	51.6%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Lazio corners (+2.5)	48.4%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Napoli corners (-3.5)	41.2%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Lazio corners (+1.5)	37.8%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Lazio corners (-1.5)	12.3%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Lazio corners (-2.5)	7.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Lazio corners (-3.5)	4.3%	4.3%	—	—	23.42

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	45.6%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	27.5%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	26.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	79.9%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 11.5 corners	73.1%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 10.5 corners	65.0%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	64.8%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	55.7%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	54.4%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	45.6%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	44.3%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	35.2%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	35.0%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	26.9%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	20.1%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	14.2%	11.5%	10.2%	1.12×	8.72
1-1	12.6%	11.5%	11.9%	0.96×	8.72
0-0	10.1%	11.5%	7.9%	1.44×	8.73
2-0	10.0%	11.5%	6.7%	1.70×	8.73
0-1	8.9%	7.4%	9.1%	0.81×	13.50
2-1	8.9%	7.4%	9.4%	0.79×	13.50
1-2	5.6%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.51
0-2	3.9%	1.7%	6.6%	0.26×	58.30
0-3	1.2%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.31
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.0%	1.78×	58.32
1-3	1.6%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.31
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.7%	2.38×	58.32
2-2	3.9%	1.7%	6.0%	0.29×	58.30
2-3	1.2%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.31
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
3-0	4.7%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.29
3-1	4.2%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.30
3-2	1.8%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.31
3-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.8%	2.04×	58.32
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
4-0	1.7%	1.7%	1.7%	1.02×	58.31
4-1	1.5%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.31
4-2	0.7%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
Any other score	1.7%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (2nd half DNB)	61.0%	62.4%	53.7%	1.16×	1.60
Lazio (2nd half DNB)	39.0%	37.6%	46.3%	0.81×	2.66

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli leading at HT (DNB)	68.0%	74.0%	51.1%	1.45×	1.35
Lazio leading at HT (DNB)	32.0%	26.0%	48.9%	0.53×	3.84

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli or draw (1X)	76.4%	75.6%	66.3%	1.14×	1.32
Napoli or Lazio (12)	72.9%	72.1%	73.6%	0.98×	1.39
Lazio or draw (X2)	50.7%	52.6%	60.0%	0.88×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli or draw at HT	81.2%	84.2%	72.8%	1.16×	1.19
Lazio or draw at HT	60.0%	57.2%	71.6%	0.80×	1.75
Napoli or Lazio at HT	58.8%	57.2%	55.4%	1.03×	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli or draw (1UP)	76.4%	84.0%	71.6%	1.17×	1.19
Lazio or draw (1UP)	50.7%	58.5%	65.5%	0.89×	1.71

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli or draw in 2nd half	78.1%	75.8%	69.8%	1.09×	1.32
Lazio or draw in 2nd half	65.6%	65.7%	65.0%	1.01×	1.52
Napoli or Lazio in 2nd half	56.3%	58.0%	65.0%	0.89×	1.72

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	66.9%	68.2%	63.5%	1.07×	1.47
Neither half drawn	33.1%	31.8%	36.5%	0.87×	3.14

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (DNB)	67.6%	67.4%	54.3%	1.24×	1.48
Lazio (DNB)	32.4%	32.6%	45.7%	0.71×	3.07

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to score first	55.3%	62.0%	48.6%	1.28×	1.61
Lazio to score first	34.7%	27.6%	43.6%	0.63×	3.62
No goal scored	10.1%	9.3%	7.9%	1.17×	10.77

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	55.6%	55.0%	50.8%	1.08×	1.82
Both teams to score	44.4%	45.0%	49.2%	0.92×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	47.1%	44.3%	40.1%	1.10×	2.26
Both score & over 2.5	31.8%	34.5%	37.4%	0.92×	2.90
Both score & under 2.5	12.6%	12.4%	11.9%	1.04×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.5%	8.3%	10.8%	0.77×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	90.9%	89.0%	86.5%	1.03×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	9.1%	11.0%	13.5%	0.82×	9.08

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	82.5%	73.5%	74.9%	0.98×	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	17.5%	26.5%	25.1%	1.05×	3.78

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	67.2%	63.3%	62.7%	1.01×	1.58
Both score 1st half only	15.3%	14.9%	12.3%	1.22×	6.70
Both score 2nd half only	14.3%	10.7%	20.3%	0.53×	9.33
Both score in both halves	3.3%	4.9%	4.9%	1.00×	20.37

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	81.4%	83.2%	82.9%	1.00×	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	18.6%	16.8%	17.1%	0.98×	5.95

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	53.4%	52.8%	47.2%	1.12×	1.90
A goal in each half	46.6%	47.2%	52.8%	0.90×	2.12

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.8%	47.2%	48.4%	0.97×	2.12
0-1 goals	33.2%	30.7%	27.0%	1.14×	3.25
4-6 goals	19.1%	20.3%	23.8%	0.85×	4.94
7+ goals	0.9%	1.8%	1.0%	1.91×	54.41

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to score exactly 0	41.3%	37.3%	30.4%	1.23×	2.68
Lazio to score exactly 1	36.5%	35.9%	34.7%	1.03×	2.78
Lazio to score exactly 2	16.2%	19.6%	23.2%	0.84×	5.11
Lazio to score 3+	6.0%	8.5%	11.9%	0.72×	11.72

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to score exactly 1	34.4%	32.6%	32.1%	1.01×	3.07
Napoli to score exactly 0	24.4%	23.3%	28.4%	0.82×	4.29
Napoli to score exactly 2	24.3%	23.3%	24.8%	0.94×	4.29
Napoli to score 3+	16.9%	18.8%	15.0%	1.25×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	41.2%	42.8%	44.6%	0.96×	2.33
Napoli leading at HT	40.0%	42.8%	28.4%	1.51×	2.34
Lazio leading at HT	18.8%	15.8%	27.2%	0.58×	6.33

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli -1: 2	50.7%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Napoli -1: X	25.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Napoli -1: 1	24.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (0:1)	50.7%	51.3%	60.0%	0.85×	1.95
Draw (0:1)	25.1%	27.0%	22.6%	1.20×	3.70
Napoli (0:1)	24.1%	24.2%	17.5%	1.38×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (0:2)	75.9%	79.3%	82.5%	0.96×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	14.9%	11.0%	10.0%	1.10×	9.09
Napoli (0:2)	9.2%	7.7%	7.7%	1.00×	13.02

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (0:3)	90.8%	92.7%	92.3%	1.00×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	6.4%	5.8%	4.7%	1.24×	17.23
Napoli (0:3)	2.9%	2.4%	3.1%	0.76×	42.07

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio (0:4)	97.1%	98.1%	96.9%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.1%	1.2%	2.3%	0.53×	81.87
Napoli (0:4)	0.7%	1.2%	1.0%	1.27×	82.02

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (1:0)	76.4%	78.7%	66.3%	1.19×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	15.8%	17.1%	19.4%	0.88×	5.85
Lazio (1:0)	7.8%	6.9%	14.4%	0.48×	14.49

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (2:0)	92.2%	94.0%	85.6%	1.10×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	5.9%	6.4%	8.7%	0.74×	15.71
Lazio (2:0)	2.0%	2.3%	5.9%	0.39×	43.71

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1st half highest scoring	37.9%	37.9%	27.0%	1.40×	2.64
2nd half highest scoring	33.7%	30.9%	46.2%	0.67×	3.24
Halves equal	28.4%	26.2%	26.9%	0.97×	3.81

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to concede	58.7%	60.7%	69.6%	0.87×	1.65
Napoli clean sheet	41.3%	39.3%	30.4%	1.29×	2.54

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli clean sheet in 1st half	65.2%	69.5%	58.8%	1.18×	1.44
Napoli to concede in 1st half	34.8%	30.5%	41.2%	0.74×	3.28

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli clean sheet in 2nd half	63.3%	59.9%	50.0%	1.20×	1.67
Napoli to concede in 2nd half	36.7%	40.1%	50.0%	0.80×	2.49

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli over 2.5 corners	87.4%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Napoli over 3.5 corners	76.9%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Napoli over 4.5 corners	64.6%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Napoli under 6.5 corners	59.9%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Napoli over 5.5 corners	51.9%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Napoli under 5.5 corners	48.1%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Napoli over 6.5 corners	40.1%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Napoli under 4.5 corners	35.4%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Napoli under 3.5 corners	23.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Napoli under 2.5 corners	12.6%	13.8%	—	—	7.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 3.5 goals	94.5%	92.2%	95.3%	0.97×	1.08
Napoli under 2.5 goals	83.1%	82.2%	85.0%	0.97×	1.22
Napoli over 0.5 goals	75.6%	77.7%	71.6%	1.08×	1.29
Napoli under 1.5 goals	58.8%	58.6%	60.3%	0.97×	1.71
Napoli over 1.5 goals	41.2%	41.4%	39.7%	1.04×	2.42
Napoli under 0.5 goals	24.4%	22.3%	28.4%	0.79×	4.49
Napoli over 2.5 goals	16.9%	17.8%	15.0%	1.18×	5.62
Napoli over 3.5 goals	5.5%	7.8%	4.7%	1.65×	12.90

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 1.5 in 1st half	82.2%	83.7%	89.3%	0.94×	1.20
Napoli over 0.5 in 1st half	53.4%	50.4%	42.1%	1.20×	1.99
Napoli under 0.5 in 1st half	46.6%	49.6%	57.9%	0.86×	2.02
Napoli over 1.5 in 1st half	17.8%	16.3%	10.7%	1.52×	6.14

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli scores equally in both	38.0%	37.9%	41.7%	0.91×	2.64
Napoli scores more in 1st half	34.4%	33.0%	22.2%	1.48×	3.03
Napoli scores more in 2nd half	27.6%	27.8%	36.2%	0.77×	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	53.5%	51.4%	44.0%	1.17×	1.95
Lazio (home no bet)	46.5%	48.6%	56.0%	0.87×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli even goals	53.0%	50.7%	56.3%	0.90×	1.97
Napoli odd goals	47.0%	49.3%	43.8%	1.13×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	30.4%	33.3%	33.8%	0.99×	3.01
HT 1-0	23.2%	24.4%	18.4%	1.33×	4.09
HT 0-1	13.0%	11.0%	18.1%	0.61×	9.07
HT 1-1	9.9%	6.9%	10.3%	0.67×	14.45
HT 2-0	8.8%	6.9%	5.8%	1.20×	14.46
Any other HT score	5.1%	6.9%	3.4%	2.05×	14.52
HT 2-1	3.8%	2.4%	2.4%	0.99×	42.03
HT 0-2	2.8%	2.4%	5.4%	0.44×	42.10
HT 1-2	2.1%	2.4%	2.6%	0.90×	42.14
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.4%	0.7%	3.28×	42.23

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli at HT / Napoli at FT	33.6%	32.3%	22.0%	1.47×	3.10
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	18.0%	16.7%	16.1%	1.04×	5.98
Draw at HT / Napoli at FT	14.2%	12.7%	15.9%	0.80×	7.90
Lazio at HT / Lazio at FT	13.3%	12.7%	19.1%	0.66×	7.91
Draw at HT / Lazio at FT	9.0%	6.0%	12.9%	0.47×	16.57
Napoli at HT / Draw at FT	5.1%	6.0%	4.7%	1.28×	16.68
Lazio at HT / Draw at FT	4.0%	3.5%	5.9%	0.59×	28.62
Lazio at HT / Napoli at FT	1.5%	3.5%	2.4%	1.45×	28.71
Napoli at HT / Lazio at FT	1.3%	3.5%	1.9%	1.81×	28.72

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to score last	55.3%	56.3%	48.2%	1.17×	1.78
Lazio to score last	34.7%	32.8%	44.0%	0.75×	3.05
No goal scored	10.1%	8.7%	7.9%	1.09×	11.52

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	89.9%	91.7%	92.1%	1.00×	1.09
Napoli to lead by 1 at any time	61.8%	61.4%	55.3%	1.11×	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	40.5%	39.1%	43.6%	0.90×	2.56
Lazio to lead by 1 at any time	38.7%	34.7%	50.5%	0.69×	2.88
Napoli to lead by 2 at any time	29.1%	25.6%	23.9%	1.07×	3.91
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	13.5%	10.5%	15.1%	0.69×	9.54
Lazio to lead by 2 at any time	11.5%	10.4%	20.2%	0.52×	9.58
Napoli to lead by 3 at any time	10.8%	10.4%	8.8%	1.19×	9.59
Lazio to lead by 3 at any time	2.7%	1.6%	6.5%	0.25×	62.08

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli most corners	72.3%	70.5%	—	—	1.42
Lazio most corners	19.1%	19.2%	—	—	5.20
Corners level	8.6%	8.4%	—	—	11.97

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.0%	87.4%	89.2%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	81.6%	83.4%	80.8%	1.03×	1.20
1-3 goals	70.0%	68.8%	67.5%	1.02×	1.45
2-6 goals	65.9%	68.8%	72.1%	0.95×	1.45
2-5 goals	63.8%	63.3%	70.1%	0.90×	1.58
2-4 goals	58.5%	59.1%	61.7%	0.96×	1.69
1-2 goals	49.6%	48.5%	44.1%	1.10×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.8%	48.5%	48.4%	1.00×	2.06
3-6 goals	39.4%	39.2%	47.2%	0.83×	2.55
3-5 goals	37.3%	39.2%	45.2%	0.87×	2.55
3-4 goals	32.0%	35.2%	36.8%	0.96×	2.84
4-6 goals	19.1%	18.8%	23.8%	0.79×	5.31
4-5 goals	17.0%	18.8%	21.8%	0.87×	5.31
5-6 goals	7.4%	8.9%	10.6%	0.84×	11.26
7+ goals	0.9%	2.6%	1.0%	2.65×	39.18

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli never behind	51.2%	62.4%	49.5%	1.26×	1.60
Lazio never behind	28.2%	30.1%	44.7%	0.67×	3.32

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.5%	50.9%	51.6%	0.99×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.5%	49.1%	48.4%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.6%	51.7%	56.6%	0.91×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.4%	48.3%	43.4%	1.11×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	55.5%	58.7%	50.6%	1.16×	1.70
Odd goals in 2nd half	44.5%	41.3%	49.4%	0.84×	2.42

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	97.0%	95.4%	97.0%	0.98×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	91.7%	92.3%	88.6%	1.04×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	89.9%	87.6%	92.1%	0.95×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	80.0%	82.3%	75.4%	1.09×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	66.8%	66.3%	73.0%	0.91×	1.51
Under 2.5 goals	59.7%	58.6%	51.9%	1.13×	1.71
Over 2.5 goals	40.3%	41.4%	48.1%	0.86×	2.42
Under 1.5 goals	33.2%	33.7%	27.0%	1.25×	2.97
Over 3.5 goals	20.0%	17.7%	24.6%	0.72×	5.65
Under 0.5 goals	10.1%	12.4%	7.9%	1.56×	8.07
Over 4.5 goals	8.3%	7.7%	11.4%	0.68×	12.93
Over 5.5 goals	3.0%	4.6%	3.0%	1.52×	21.87

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.1%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	96.9%	97.2%	96.7%	1.00×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	90.6%	92.4%	86.8%	1.06×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	74.9%	72.4%	67.8%	1.07×	1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	54.8%	51.9%	64.0%	0.81×	1.93
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	45.2%	48.1%	36.0%	1.34×	2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	25.1%	27.6%	32.2%	0.86×	3.63
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	9.4%	7.6%	13.2%	0.58×	13.14
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	3.1%	2.8%	3.3%	0.86×	35.57
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.9%	2.8%	1.0%	2.86×	35.63

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	88.2%	89.2%	91.2%	0.98×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	69.6%	68.5%	66.2%	1.03×	1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half	66.6%	68.4%	70.1%	0.98×	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	33.4%	31.6%	29.9%	1.06×	3.17
Under 0.5 in 1st half	30.4%	31.5%	33.8%	0.93×	3.17
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.8%	10.8%	8.8%	1.23×	9.26

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	89.9%	85.6%	82.5%	1.04×	1.17
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	69.7%	68.8%	57.0%	1.21×	1.45
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	66.9%	68.6%	78.6%	0.87×	1.46
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	33.1%	31.4%	21.4%	1.47×	3.19
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	30.3%	31.2%	43.0%	0.72×	3.21
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	10.1%	14.4%	17.5%	0.82×	6.96

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio not to score in both halves	87.2%	85.4%	78.4%	1.09×	1.17
Napoli not to score in both halves	74.5%	74.0%	75.8%	0.98×	1.35
Napoli to score in both halves	25.5%	26.0%	24.2%	1.08×	3.85
Lazio to score in both halves	12.8%	14.6%	21.6%	0.68×	6.83

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	44.4%	46.6%	49.2%	0.95×	2.15
Only Napoli scores	31.2%	33.3%	22.6%	1.47×	3.01
Only Lazio scores	14.3%	11.0%	20.6%	0.54×	9.05
Neither team scores	10.1%	11.0%	7.9%	1.39×	9.07

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	26.5%	24.9%	25.0%	0.99×	4.02
Exactly 1 goals	23.1%	22.6%	19.2%	1.17×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	20.3%	22.6%	23.6%	0.96×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	11.7%	12.1%	13.3%	0.91×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	10.1%	12.1%	7.9%	1.53×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	5.4%	7.6%	8.5%	0.89×	13.14
6 or more goals	3.0%	4.5%	3.0%	1.49×	22.39

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.2%	37.4%	36.4%	1.03×	2.67
No goals in 1st half	30.4%	35.8%	33.8%	1.06×	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	21.6%	21.5%	21.3%	1.01×	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	11.8%	10.7%	8.8%	1.22×	9.34

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	36.6%	39.4%	35.7%	1.10×	2.54
No goals in 2nd half	33.1%	33.8%	21.4%	1.58×	2.96
2+ goals in 2nd half	30.3%	33.7%	43.0%	0.78×	2.96

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio not to win both halves	95.9%	97.2%	91.1%	1.07×	1.03
Napoli not to win both halves	86.2%	87.8%	89.9%	0.98×	1.14
Napoli to win both halves	13.8%	12.2%	10.1%	1.21×	8.22
Lazio to win both halves	4.1%	2.9%	8.9%	0.32×	35.08

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio to win neither half	63.4%	65.1%	51.6%	1.26×	1.54
Napoli to win either half	60.6%	65.0%	53.2%	1.22×	1.54
Napoli to win neither half	39.4%	35.0%	46.8%	0.75×	2.86
Lazio to win either half	36.6%	34.9%	48.4%	0.72×	2.87

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lazio not to win to nil	85.7%	88.1%	79.4%	1.11×	1.14
Napoli not to win to nil	68.8%	69.7%	77.4%	0.90×	1.44
Napoli to win to nil	31.2%	30.3%	22.6%	1.34×	3.30
Lazio to win to nil	14.3%	11.9%	20.6%	0.58×	8.40

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	27.1%	27.9%	26.4%	1.05×	3.59
Napoli by 1	25.1%	27.9%	22.6%	1.23×	3.59
Lazio by 1	15.8%	17.0%	19.4%	0.88×	5.87
Napoli by 2	14.9%	11.8%	10.0%	1.18×	8.50
Napoli by 3+	9.2%	7.2%	7.7%	0.94×	13.90
Lazio by 2	5.9%	7.2%	8.7%	0.83×	13.91
Lazio by 3+	2.0%	2.7%	5.9%	0.46×	36.84