Napoli v Lecce — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 6 December 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Napoli

14:00 UTC

Lecce

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 21 Oct, 11:05 · 1,107h before kick-off

Napoli win

65.6%

model 64.9%

Draw

23.3%

model 21.4%

Lecce win

11.1%

model 13.7%

662311

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (270 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 13.8%
2-0 13.0%
1-1 10.0%
2-1 9.5%
3-0 8.2%

Goals

Over 2.5	48.6%	Under 2.5	51.4%
BTTS yes	44.0%	BTTS no	56.0%
Napoli 1+	84.9%	Napoli 2+	56.3%
Lecce 1+	51.8%	Lecce 2+	16.6%

Expected goals 1.89 – 0.73. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

90/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

95%

★ Best pick

Napoli (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 40%

63.8% fair odds 1.57

strong signal · 1134 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Lecce (0:3)

Handicap 0:3 · usually 92%

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 296 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Napoli carry the stronger rating, 1660 Elo against 1480.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Napoli have an estimated 65.6% win probability, against 23.3% for the draw and 11.1% for Lecce. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.89 for Napoli and 0.73 for Lecce.

Why Napoli

Napoli carry the stronger rating, 1660 Elo against 1480.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.3%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Lecce can win

Away from home Lecce average 1.76 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Napoli were missing 1.50 expected goal involvements a match against 0.78.

Key players

Napoli's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Rasmus Højlund (0.42), Scott McTominay (0.38), Kevin De Bruyne (0.35). Lecce's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Walid Cheddira (0.26), Willem Geubbels (0.24), Nikola Stulic (0.23).

Availability

2 of Napoli's top three contributors did not start their last match. 2 of Lecce's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Napoli: 56% possession, 16.2 shots a match, 14.8 faced, 0.25 xG a match from set pieces. Lecce: 44% possession, 11.8 shots a match, 14.6 faced, 0.48 xG a match from set pieces. Napoli's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-21 11:56 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-21 15:05 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Napoli are the model's most likely outcome at 65.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 13.8%. Confidence 90/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Napoli are finishing below their chances — 3.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

LWWWLLWDWL last 10 scored 16 from 19.2 xG conceded 10 from 10.4 xG

Lecce are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 8.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LWWWLLWLLW last 10 scored 13 from 16.0 xG conceded 15 from 23.2 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	652114	1.89–0.73	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	701911	2.03–0.63	2-0 14%	50%	41%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to win	67.0%	64.8%	40.0%	1.62×	1.54
Draw	19.8%	19.4%	26.4%	0.73×	5.15
Lecce to win	13.1%	13.5%	33.7%	0.40×	7.41

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli & not both score	40.1%	40.0%	22.6%	1.77×	2.50
Napoli & both teams score	26.9%	25.2%	17.5%	1.43×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	13.9%	13.3%	18.6%	0.71×	7.53
Lecce & not both score	7.0%	8.3%	20.6%	0.41×	12.01
Lecce & both teams score	6.2%	8.3%	13.2%	0.63×	12.02
Draw & not both score	5.9%	8.3%	7.9%	1.05×	12.02

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli & over 1.5	54.9%	48.9%	29.9%	1.64×	2.04
Napoli & under 3.5	42.8%	40.3%	29.6%	1.36×	2.48
Napoli & over 2.5	42.4%	40.3%	23.3%	1.73×	2.48
Napoli & under 2.5	24.6%	21.6%	16.8%	1.28×	4.63
Napoli & over 3.5	24.3%	21.6%	10.6%	2.04×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	15.4%	18.0%	19.7%	0.91×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	15.4%	18.0%	19.7%	0.91×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	13.9%	12.8%	18.6%	0.69×	7.79
Napoli & under 1.5	12.1%	12.8%	10.2%	1.26×	7.79
Lecce & under 3.5	10.5%	12.8%	26.3%	0.49×	7.79
Lecce & over 1.5	8.5%	7.9%	24.6%	0.32×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	5.9%	7.9%	7.9%	1.00×	12.63
Lecce & over 2.5	6.8%	7.9%	18.1%	0.44×	12.63
Lecce & under 2.5	6.4%	7.9%	15.6%	0.51×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	4.5%	4.8%	6.9%	0.70×	20.81
Draw & over 3.5	4.5%	4.8%	6.9%	0.70×	20.81
Lecce & under 1.5	4.6%	4.8%	9.1%	0.53×	20.81
Lecce & over 3.5	2.6%	4.8%	7.5%	0.64×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (1UP)	77.0%	78.7%	55.3%	1.42×	1.27
Lecce (1UP)	29.2%	27.3%	50.5%	0.54×	3.66

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (2UP)	67.0%	68.2%	41.8%	1.63×	1.47
Lecce (2UP)	13.1%	14.1%	36.2%	0.39×	7.08

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to win 2nd half	53.3%	51.6%	35.0%	1.48×	1.94
2nd half drawn	35.9%	36.1%	35.0%	1.03×	2.77
Lecce to win 2nd half	10.7%	11.1%	30.2%	0.37×	9.05

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce under 1.5 in 2nd half	96.4%	93.6%	85.1%	1.10×	1.07
Lecce under 0.5 in 2nd half	74.4%	75.4%	50.0%	1.51×	1.33
Lecce over 0.5 in 2nd half	25.6%	24.6%	50.0%	0.49×	4.07
Lecce over 1.5 in 2nd half	3.6%	6.4%	14.9%	0.43×	15.72

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 1.5 in 2nd half	73.4%	74.0%	81.5%	0.91×	1.35
Napoli over 0.5 in 2nd half	63.4%	63.3%	53.7%	1.18×	1.58
Napoli under 0.5 in 2nd half	36.6%	36.7%	46.3%	0.79×	2.72
Napoli over 1.5 in 2nd half	26.6%	26.0%	18.5%	1.40×	3.85

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (+0.5)	86.9%	88.5%	66.3%	1.33×	1.13
Lecce (+2.5)	78.2%	78.5%	92.3%	0.85×	1.27
Napoli (-0.5)	67.0%	68.7%	40.0%	1.72×	1.46
Lecce (+1.5)	57.7%	57.0%	82.5%	0.69×	1.75
Napoli (-1.5)	42.3%	43.0%	17.5%	2.45×	2.33
Lecce (+0.5)	33.0%	31.3%	60.0%	0.52×	3.19
Napoli (-2.5)	21.8%	21.5%	7.7%	2.80×	4.65
Lecce (-0.5)	13.1%	11.5%	33.7%	0.34×	8.66

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce to concede	87.1%	86.3%	71.6%	1.20×	1.16
Lecce clean sheet	12.9%	13.7%	28.4%	0.48×	7.29

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce to concede in 1st half	64.8%	65.3%	42.1%	1.55×	1.53
Lecce clean sheet in 1st half	35.2%	34.7%	57.9%	0.60×	2.88

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce to concede in 2nd half	63.4%	61.8%	53.7%	1.15×	1.62
Lecce clean sheet in 2nd half	36.6%	38.2%	46.3%	0.83×	2.62

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce under 6.5 corners	92.6%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Lecce under 5.5 corners	86.4%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Lecce under 4.5 corners	76.5%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Lecce under 3.5 corners	61.9%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Lecce over 2.5 corners	56.8%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Lecce under 2.5 corners	43.2%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Lecce over 3.5 corners	38.1%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Lecce over 4.5 corners	23.5%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Lecce over 5.5 corners	13.6%	14.8%	—	—	6.77
Lecce over 6.5 corners	7.4%	10.1%	—	—	9.90

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce under 3.5 goals	99.2%	97.5%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Lecce under 2.5 goals	95.6%	97.5%	88.1%	1.11×	1.03
Lecce under 1.5 goals	81.7%	81.5%	65.0%	1.25×	1.23
Lecce over 0.5 goals	54.0%	53.6%	69.6%	0.77×	1.87
Lecce under 0.5 goals	46.0%	46.4%	30.4%	1.53×	2.15
Lecce over 1.5 goals	18.3%	18.5%	35.0%	0.53×	5.39
Lecce over 2.5 goals	4.4%	2.5%	11.9%	0.21×	39.81
Lecce over 3.5 goals	0.8%	2.5%	2.9%	0.87×	39.99

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce under 1.5 in 1st half	91.5%	93.9%	89.9%	1.04×	1.07
Lecce under 0.5 in 1st half	61.8%	63.5%	58.8%	1.08×	1.57
Lecce over 0.5 in 1st half	38.2%	36.5%	41.2%	0.88×	2.74
Lecce over 1.5 in 1st half	8.5%	6.1%	10.1%	0.61×	16.29

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce scores equally in both	52.8%	51.1%	43.4%	1.18×	1.96
Lecce scores more in 1st half	30.4%	33.6%	23.9%	1.40×	2.98
Lecce scores more in 2nd half	16.9%	17.9%	32.8%	0.55×	5.58

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (away no bet)	77.2%	73.6%	60.2%	1.22×	1.36
Draw (away no bet)	22.8%	26.4%	39.8%	0.66×	3.79

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce even goals	60.6%	59.0%	55.5%	1.06×	1.69
Lecce odd goals	39.4%	41.0%	44.5%	0.92×	2.44

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	83.2%	82.8%	87.3%	0.95×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	16.8%	17.2%	12.7%	1.35×	5.80

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	65.6%	68.3%	60.2%	1.13×	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	34.4%	31.7%	39.8%	0.80×	3.16

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	61.8%	60.1%	53.4%	1.13×	1.66
Napoli to score 2+ in a row	54.4%	51.1%	31.7%	1.61×	1.96
Either team to score 3+ in a row	28.1%	25.2%	17.9%	1.41×	3.97
Napoli to score 3+ in a row	26.3%	25.2%	10.1%	2.49×	3.97
Lecce to score 2+ in a row	11.8%	12.0%	27.8%	0.43×	8.32
Lecce to score 3+ in a row	2.0%	2.5%	7.9%	0.32×	39.50

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli corners (+3.5)	96.9%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Napoli corners (+2.5)	94.5%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Napoli corners (+1.5)	90.8%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Napoli corners (-1.5)	69.4%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Napoli corners (-2.5)	59.7%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Lecce corners (+3.5)	50.2%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Napoli corners (-3.5)	49.8%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Lecce corners (+2.5)	40.3%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Lecce corners (+1.5)	30.6%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Lecce corners (-1.5)	9.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.58
Lecce corners (-2.5)	5.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Lecce corners (-3.5)	3.1%	4.3%	—	—	23.46

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	38.8%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
12+ corners	33.6%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	27.6%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	73.9%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	70.8%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	66.4%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	61.2%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	57.9%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	51.5%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	48.5%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	42.1%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	38.8%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	33.6%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	29.2%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	26.1%	27.5%	—	—	3.64

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-0	12.4%	11.5%	6.7%	1.70×	8.72
1-0	12.1%	11.5%	10.2%	1.12×	8.72
1-1	9.4%	7.4%	11.9%	0.62×	13.50
2-1	9.7%	7.4%	9.4%	0.79×	13.50
3-0	8.5%	7.4%	3.6%	2.05×	13.50
3-1	6.6%	7.4%	3.1%	2.37×	13.51
0-0	5.9%	7.4%	7.9%	0.93×	13.51
Any other score	5.8%	7.4%	2.8%	2.68×	13.51
0-1	4.6%	1.7%	9.1%	0.19×	58.29
0-2	1.8%	1.7%	6.6%	0.26×	58.31
0-3	0.5%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.32
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.0%	1.78×	58.32
1-2	3.7%	1.7%	7.5%	0.23×	58.30
1-3	0.9%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.31
1-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.38×	58.32
2-2	3.8%	1.7%	6.0%	0.29×	58.30
2-3	1.0%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.31
2-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
3-2	2.6%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.30
3-3	0.7%	1.7%	0.8%	2.04×	58.32
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
4-0	4.4%	1.7%	1.7%	1.02×	58.29
4-1	3.4%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.30
4-2	1.3%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.31
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (2nd half DNB)	83.3%	83.1%	53.7%	1.55×	1.20
Lecce (2nd half DNB)	16.7%	16.9%	46.3%	0.37×	5.91

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli leading at HT (DNB)	74.4%	74.2%	51.1%	1.45×	1.35
Lecce leading at HT (DNB)	25.6%	25.8%	48.9%	0.53×	3.88

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli or draw (1X)	86.9%	86.5%	66.3%	1.30×	1.16
Napoli or Lecce (12)	80.2%	80.6%	73.6%	1.10×	1.24
Lecce or draw (X2)	33.0%	35.2%	60.0%	0.59×	2.84

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli or draw at HT	83.2%	84.3%	72.8%	1.16×	1.19
Napoli or Lecce at HT	65.8%	66.6%	55.4%	1.20×	1.50
Lecce or draw at HT	51.0%	47.7%	71.6%	0.67×	2.10

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli or draw (1UP)	86.9%	91.9%	71.6%	1.28×	1.09
Lecce or draw (1UP)	33.0%	39.1%	65.5%	0.60×	2.56

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli or draw in 2nd half	89.3%	88.9%	69.8%	1.27×	1.12
Napoli or Lecce in 2nd half	64.1%	63.9%	65.0%	0.98×	1.56
Lecce or draw in 2nd half	46.7%	48.4%	65.0%	0.74×	2.07

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	57.8%	58.4%	63.5%	0.92×	1.71
Neither half drawn	42.2%	41.6%	36.5%	1.14×	2.41

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (DNB)	83.6%	80.3%	54.3%	1.48×	1.25
Lecce (DNB)	16.4%	19.7%	45.7%	0.43×	5.09

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to score first	68.2%	69.5%	48.6%	1.43×	1.44
Lecce to score first	25.9%	27.7%	43.6%	0.63×	3.61
No goal scored	5.9%	7.4%	7.9%	0.93×	13.50

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	53.0%	51.3%	50.8%	1.01×	1.95
Both teams to score	47.0%	48.7%	49.2%	0.99×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	37.6%	38.4%	37.4%	1.03×	2.60
Not both score & under 2.5	36.9%	38.4%	40.1%	0.96×	2.60
Not both score & over 2.5	16.0%	21.5%	10.8%	1.99×	4.65
Both score & under 2.5	9.4%	8.3%	11.9%	0.70×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	88.9%	85.6%	86.5%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	11.1%	14.4%	13.5%	1.07×	6.96

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	83.8%	74.3%	74.9%	0.99×	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	16.2%	25.7%	25.1%	1.02×	3.89

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	63.1%	65.6%	62.7%	1.05×	1.53
Both score 1st half only	20.7%	21.0%	12.3%	1.71×	4.76
Both score 2nd half only	12.2%	10.7%	20.3%	0.53×	9.37
Both score in both halves	4.0%	4.9%	4.9%	1.00×	20.21

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	75.2%	81.1%	82.9%	0.98×	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	24.8%	18.9%	17.1%	1.11×	5.29

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	56.9%	57.3%	52.8%	1.09×	1.74
A half without a goal	43.1%	42.7%	47.2%	0.90×	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.0%	47.2%	48.4%	0.97×	2.12
4-6 goals	28.8%	26.6%	23.8%	1.12×	3.76
0-1 goals	22.7%	22.9%	27.0%	0.85×	4.37
7+ goals	2.5%	1.8%	1.0%	1.92×	54.25

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce to score exactly 0	46.0%	42.8%	30.4%	1.41×	2.34
Lecce to score exactly 1	35.7%	35.9%	34.7%	1.03×	2.78
Lecce to score exactly 2	13.9%	12.9%	23.2%	0.56×	7.76
Lecce to score 3+	4.4%	4.6%	11.9%	0.39×	21.76

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to score 3+	33.7%	32.6%	15.0%	2.17×	3.07
Napoli to score exactly 2	27.1%	26.5%	24.8%	1.07×	3.77
Napoli to score exactly 1	26.4%	26.5%	32.1%	0.83×	3.77
Napoli to score exactly 0	12.9%	14.3%	28.4%	0.50×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli leading at HT	49.0%	52.3%	28.4%	1.84×	1.91
Draw at HT	34.2%	33.4%	44.6%	0.75×	3.00
Lecce leading at HT	16.8%	15.7%	27.2%	0.58×	6.38

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli -1: 1	42.3%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Napoli -1: 2	33.0%	30.1%	—	—	3.33
Napoli -1: X	24.7%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (0:1)	42.3%	42.6%	17.5%	2.43×	2.35
Lecce (0:1)	33.0%	30.1%	60.0%	0.50×	3.32
Draw (0:1)	24.7%	24.2%	22.6%	1.07×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce (0:2)	57.7%	63.0%	82.5%	0.76×	1.59
Napoli (0:2)	21.8%	20.3%	7.7%	2.64×	4.93
Draw (0:2)	20.5%	20.3%	10.0%	2.03×	4.93

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce (0:3)	78.2%	80.5%	92.3%	0.87×	1.24
Draw (0:3)	12.5%	10.0%	4.7%	2.12×	10.05
Napoli (0:3)	9.3%	5.8%	3.1%	1.86×	17.18

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce (0:4)	90.7%	94.5%	96.9%	0.98×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	5.9%	4.6%	2.3%	2.01×	21.75
Napoli (0:4)	3.3%	1.2%	1.0%	1.27×	81.73

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (1:0)	86.9%	86.1%	66.3%	1.30×	1.16
Draw (1:0)	9.4%	6.9%	19.4%	0.36×	14.46
Lecce (1:0)	3.8%	3.3%	14.4%	0.23×	30.52

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (2:0)	96.2%	96.8%	85.6%	1.13×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	2.9%	2.3%	8.7%	0.26×	43.65
Lecce (2:0)	0.8%	2.3%	5.9%	0.39×	43.78

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1st half highest scoring	42.6%	44.8%	27.0%	1.66×	2.23
2nd half highest scoring	32.5%	30.2%	46.2%	0.66×	3.31
Halves equal	25.0%	24.4%	26.9%	0.91×	4.10

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to concede	54.0%	53.3%	69.6%	0.77×	1.88
Napoli clean sheet	46.0%	46.8%	30.4%	1.54×	2.14

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli clean sheet in 1st half	61.8%	63.5%	58.8%	1.08×	1.58
Napoli to concede in 1st half	38.2%	36.5%	41.2%	0.89×	2.74

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli clean sheet in 2nd half	74.4%	72.3%	50.0%	1.45×	1.38
Napoli to concede in 2nd half	25.6%	27.7%	50.0%	0.55×	3.61

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli over 2.5 corners	91.0%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Napoli over 3.5 corners	82.7%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Napoli over 4.5 corners	72.2%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Napoli over 5.5 corners	60.8%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Napoli under 6.5 corners	50.6%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Napoli over 6.5 corners	49.4%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Napoli under 5.5 corners	39.2%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Napoli under 4.5 corners	27.8%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Napoli under 3.5 corners	17.3%	19.0%	—	—	5.25
Napoli under 2.5 corners	9.0%	10.8%	—	—	9.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli over 0.5 goals	87.1%	87.3%	71.6%	1.22×	1.15
Napoli under 3.5 goals	84.8%	82.2%	95.3%	0.86×	1.22
Napoli under 2.5 goals	66.3%	68.0%	85.0%	0.80×	1.47
Napoli over 1.5 goals	60.7%	63.6%	39.7%	1.60×	1.57
Napoli under 1.5 goals	39.3%	36.4%	60.3%	0.60×	2.75
Napoli over 2.5 goals	33.7%	32.0%	15.0%	2.13×	3.12
Napoli over 3.5 goals	15.2%	17.8%	4.7%	3.79×	5.63
Napoli under 0.5 goals	12.9%	12.7%	28.4%	0.45×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 1.5 in 1st half	72.0%	79.0%	89.3%	0.88×	1.27
Napoli over 0.5 in 1st half	64.8%	65.1%	42.1%	1.55×	1.54
Napoli under 0.5 in 1st half	35.2%	34.9%	57.9%	0.60×	2.86
Napoli over 1.5 in 1st half	28.0%	21.0%	10.7%	1.96×	4.77

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli scores more in 1st half	35.8%	37.9%	22.2%	1.70×	2.64
Napoli scores more in 2nd half	33.8%	33.0%	36.2%	0.91×	3.03
Napoli scores equally in both	30.4%	32.9%	41.7%	0.79×	3.04

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	60.2%	59.9%	44.0%	1.36×	1.67
Lecce (home no bet)	39.8%	40.1%	56.0%	0.72×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli even goals	50.8%	50.7%	56.3%	0.90×	1.97
Napoli odd goals	49.2%	49.3%	43.8%	1.13×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 1-0	22.7%	24.4%	18.4%	1.33×	4.09
HT 0-0	21.8%	24.4%	33.8%	0.72×	4.10
HT 2-0	11.8%	11.0%	5.8%	1.91×	9.08
HT 1-1	10.9%	11.0%	10.3%	1.06×	9.09
HT 0-1	10.5%	11.0%	18.1%	0.61×	9.09
Any other HT score	10.0%	11.0%	3.4%	3.27×	9.10
HT 2-1	5.7%	6.9%	2.4%	2.87×	14.51
HT 0-2	2.5%	2.4%	5.4%	0.44×	42.11
HT 1-2	2.6%	2.4%	2.6%	0.90×	42.11
HT 2-2	1.4%	2.4%	0.7%	3.29×	42.19

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli at HT / Napoli at FT	45.7%	47.1%	22.0%	2.14×	2.13
Draw at HT / Napoli at FT	18.2%	16.7%	15.9%	1.05×	5.98
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.3%	12.6%	16.1%	0.78×	7.91
Lecce at HT / Lecce at FT	9.0%	6.0%	19.1%	0.32×	16.57
Lecce at HT / Draw at FT	4.7%	3.5%	5.9%	0.59×	28.59
Draw at HT / Lecce at FT	3.7%	3.5%	12.9%	0.27×	28.63
Lecce at HT / Napoli at FT	3.1%	3.5%	2.4%	1.45×	28.65
Napoli at HT / Draw at FT	2.9%	3.5%	4.7%	0.74×	28.66
Napoli at HT / Lecce at FT	0.4%	3.5%	1.9%	1.81×	28.75

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to score last	68.2%	70.4%	48.2%	1.46×	1.42
Lecce to score last	25.9%	27.4%	44.0%	0.62×	3.65
No goal scored	5.9%	7.4%	7.9%	0.93×	13.50

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.1%	92.7%	92.1%	1.01×	1.08
Napoli to lead by 1 at any time	77.0%	78.3%	55.3%	1.42×	1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	54.7%	50.9%	43.6%	1.17×	1.96
Napoli to lead by 2 at any time	48.0%	44.6%	23.9%	1.86×	2.24
Lecce to lead by 1 at any time	29.2%	25.6%	50.5%	0.51×	3.91
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	25.7%	25.5%	15.1%	1.68×	3.93
Napoli to lead by 3 at any time	24.4%	19.7%	8.8%	2.24×	5.08
Lecce to lead by 2 at any time	6.9%	6.7%	20.2%	0.33×	14.93
Lecce to lead by 3 at any time	1.3%	1.6%	6.5%	0.24×	63.38

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli most corners	78.2%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Lecce most corners	14.7%	10.5%	—	—	9.57
Corners level	7.2%	8.3%	—	—	11.98

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.4%	87.4%	89.2%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	78.5%	78.7%	80.8%	0.97×	1.27
2-6 goals	74.8%	72.4%	72.1%	1.00×	1.38
2-5 goals	70.6%	72.4%	70.1%	1.03×	1.38
1-3 goals	62.7%	63.3%	67.5%	0.94×	1.58
2-4 goals	61.7%	63.3%	61.7%	1.03×	1.58
3-6 goals	51.1%	53.2%	47.2%	1.13×	1.88
3-5 goals	46.9%	48.5%	45.2%	1.07×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.0%	48.5%	48.4%	1.00×	2.06
1-2 goals	40.4%	43.6%	44.1%	0.99×	2.30
3-4 goals	38.0%	39.2%	36.8%	1.07×	2.55
4-6 goals	28.8%	30.2%	23.8%	1.27×	3.31
4-5 goals	24.6%	24.5%	21.8%	1.13×	4.08
5-6 goals	13.1%	14.8%	10.6%	1.40×	6.75
7+ goals	2.5%	2.6%	1.0%	2.66×	39.11

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli never behind	64.9%	68.5%	49.5%	1.38×	1.46
Lecce never behind	17.1%	18.3%	44.7%	0.41×	5.46

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.8%	50.9%	51.6%	0.99×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.1%	48.4%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.4%	51.6%	56.6%	0.91×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	47.6%	48.4%	43.4%	1.11×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.7%	51.9%	50.6%	1.03×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.3%	48.1%	49.4%	0.97×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.1%	92.3%	92.1%	1.00×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	93.3%	92.3%	97.0%	0.95×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	84.4%	82.3%	88.6%	0.93×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	77.3%	77.3%	73.0%	1.06×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	68.6%	66.3%	75.4%	0.88×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	53.7%	52.5%	48.1%	1.09×	1.90
Under 2.5 goals	46.3%	47.5%	51.9%	0.91×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	31.4%	33.7%	24.6%	1.37×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	22.7%	22.7%	27.0%	0.84×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	15.6%	17.7%	11.4%	1.55×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	6.7%	7.7%	3.0%	2.57×	12.94
Under 0.5 goals	5.9%	7.7%	7.9%	0.97×	12.94

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.4%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	92.6%	92.4%	96.7%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	81.5%	81.1%	86.8%	0.93×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	70.3%	72.4%	64.0%	1.13×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	59.6%	55.8%	67.8%	0.82×	1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	40.4%	44.2%	32.2%	1.37×	2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	29.7%	27.6%	36.0%	0.77×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	18.5%	18.9%	13.2%	1.44×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	7.4%	7.6%	3.3%	2.32×	13.16
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.6%	2.8%	1.0%	2.86×	35.58

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	80.3%	85.7%	91.2%	0.94×	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	78.2%	78.2%	66.2%	1.18×	1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half	55.0%	55.5%	70.1%	0.79×	1.80
Over 1.5 in 1st half	45.0%	44.5%	29.9%	1.49×	2.25
Under 0.5 in 1st half	21.8%	21.8%	33.8%	0.65×	4.58
Over 2.5 in 1st half	19.7%	14.3%	8.8%	1.63×	6.99

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	85.7%	85.4%	82.5%	1.04×	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	72.8%	77.4%	78.6%	0.98×	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	62.7%	61.6%	57.0%	1.08×	1.62
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	37.3%	38.4%	43.0%	0.89×	2.60
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	27.2%	22.6%	21.4%	1.06×	4.42
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	14.3%	14.6%	17.5%	0.83×	6.86

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce not to score in both halves	90.2%	89.9%	78.4%	1.15×	1.11
Napoli not to score in both halves	58.9%	58.2%	75.8%	0.77×	1.72
Napoli to score in both halves	41.1%	41.8%	24.2%	1.73×	2.39
Lecce to score in both halves	9.8%	10.1%	21.6%	0.47×	9.88

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	47.0%	50.7%	49.2%	1.03×	1.97
Only Napoli scores	40.1%	46.5%	22.6%	2.06×	2.15
Only Lecce scores	7.0%	7.1%	20.6%	0.35×	14.04
Neither team scores	5.9%	7.1%	7.9%	0.90×	14.05

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.7%	22.6%	25.0%	0.90×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.6%	23.6%	0.96×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	16.7%	17.5%	19.2%	0.91×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	15.7%	17.5%	13.3%	1.31×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	8.9%	7.6%	8.5%	0.89×	13.13
6 or more goals	6.7%	7.6%	3.0%	2.53×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	5.9%	7.6%	7.9%	0.96×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	33.2%	35.9%	36.4%	0.98×	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	25.3%	28.2%	21.3%	1.33×	3.55
No goals in 1st half	21.8%	21.5%	33.8%	0.64×	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	19.7%	15.7%	8.8%	1.79×	6.37

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	37.3%	39.5%	43.0%	0.92×	2.53
1 goal in 2nd half	35.4%	39.2%	35.7%	1.10×	2.55
No goals in 2nd half	27.2%	29.3%	21.4%	1.37×	3.42

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce not to win both halves	98.2%	97.2%	91.1%	1.07×	1.03
Napoli not to win both halves	73.9%	72.9%	89.9%	0.81×	1.37
Napoli to win both halves	26.1%	27.1%	10.1%	2.68×	3.69
Lecce to win both halves	1.8%	2.8%	8.9%	0.31×	36.02

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to win either half	76.2%	79.7%	53.2%	1.50×	1.26
Lecce to win neither half	74.2%	73.1%	51.6%	1.42×	1.37
Lecce to win either half	25.8%	26.9%	48.4%	0.55×	3.72
Napoli to win neither half	23.8%	20.3%	46.8%	0.43×	4.93

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce not to win to nil	93.0%	92.1%	79.4%	1.16×	1.09
Napoli not to win to nil	59.9%	59.3%	77.4%	0.77×	1.69
Napoli to win to nil	40.1%	40.7%	22.6%	1.80×	2.46
Lecce to win to nil	7.0%	7.9%	20.6%	0.38×	12.67

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli by 1	24.7%	24.1%	22.6%	1.07×	4.15
Napoli by 3+	21.8%	24.1%	7.7%	3.13×	4.15
Napoli by 2	20.5%	24.1%	10.0%	2.42×	4.15
Draw	19.8%	17.1%	26.4%	0.65×	5.86
Lecce by 1	9.4%	7.2%	19.4%	0.37×	13.90
Lecce by 2	2.9%	2.7%	8.7%	0.31×	36.81
Lecce by 3+	0.8%	2.7%	5.9%	0.46×	36.88