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Napoli v Roma — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 24 November 2024 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

1–0
2.02 – 0.59 xG
Shots
14 – 6
On target
2 – 1
Shots in box
8 – 4
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.18 – 0.41
Goals − xG
-1.02 – -0.59
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.61.11.72.30'15'30'45'60'75'90'Romelu Lukaku 53' — goal
Napoli 2.02 xGRoma 0.59 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 1' — Missed Shot (0.48 xG, Open Play)Lorenzo Pellegrini 4' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Scott McTominay 8' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Matteo Politano 11' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Scott McTominay 22' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Niccolò Pisilli 22' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Scott McTominay 25' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Amir Rrahmani 26' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, From Corner)Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 28' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Matteo Politano 35' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 39' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Direct Freekick)Romelu Lukaku 49' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Franck Zambo 51' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Angelino 52' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Romelu Lukaku 53' — Goal (0.88 xG, Open Play)Tommaso Baldanzi 57' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Artem Dovbyk 65' — Shot On Post (0.39 xG, Set Piece)Mats Hummels 82' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Michael Folorunsho 86' — Missed Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)David Neres 92' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)
Napoli attacking right Roma attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
1' Napoli Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 0.48 Open Play Missed Shot Giovanni Di Lorenzo
4' Roma Lorenzo Pellegrini 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
8' Napoli Scott McTominay 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Romelu Lukaku
11' Napoli Matteo Politano 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Giovanni Di Lorenzo
22' Napoli Scott McTominay 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Mathías Olivera
22' Roma Niccolò Pisilli 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Kouadio Kone
25' Napoli Scott McTominay 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Franck Zambo
26' Napoli Amir Rrahmani 0.09 From Corner Missed Shot Matteo Politano
28' Napoli Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Franck Zambo
35' Napoli Matteo Politano 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Franck Zambo
39' Napoli Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 0.04 Direct Freekick Right Foot Missed Shot
49' Napoli Romelu Lukaku 0.05 From Corner Missed Shot Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
51' Napoli Franck Zambo 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Scott McTominay
52' Roma Angelino 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
53' Napoli Romelu Lukaku 0.88 Open Play Left Foot Goal Giovanni Di Lorenzo
57' Roma Tommaso Baldanzi 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Angelino
65' Roma Artem Dovbyk 0.39 Set Piece Shot On Post Angelino
82' Roma Mats Hummels 0.01 From Corner Missed Shot Angelino
86' Napoli Michael Folorunsho 0.12 Open Play Missed Shot Pasquale Mazzocchi
92' Napoli David Neres 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Giovanni Simeone

Players

Roma

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Artem Dovbyk FW 90 0 0 1 0 0.39 0.00 0.00
Angelino DL 90 0 0 1 3 0.05 0.49 0.14
Bryan Cristante MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Evan Ndicka DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Kouadio Kone MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.02
Mile Svilar GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gianluca Mancini DC 88 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Niccolò Pisilli ML 78 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.02
Mehmet Zeki Çelik DR 78 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lorenzo Pellegrini AMC 46 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.03
Stephan El Shaarawy MR 46 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tommaso Baldanzi Sub 44 0 0 1 0 0.09 0.00 0.09
Mats Hummels Sub 44 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.00
Saud Abdulhamid Sub 12 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Samuel Dahl Sub 12 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Paulo Dybala Sub 2 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Napoli

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Scott McTominay MC 90 0 0 3 1 0.21 0.05 0.37
Amir Rrahmani DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.09 0.00 1.09
Alessandro Buongiorno DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 1.08
Alex Meret GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 1.05
Giovanni Di Lorenzo DR 90 0 1 0 3 0.00 1.38 1.57
Stanislav Lobotka MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 1.50
Mathías Olivera DL 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.66
Franck Zambo MC 86 0 0 1 3 0.05 0.08 0.65
Matteo Politano FWR 86 0 0 2 1 0.04 0.09 0.56
Romelu Lukaku FW 79 1 0 2 1 0.93 0.11 0.99
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia FWL 67 0 0 3 1 0.53 0.05 1.44
David Neres Sub 23 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.18
Giovanni Simeone Sub 11 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.18
Michael Folorunsho Sub 4 0 0 1 0 0.12 0.00 0.12
Pasquale Mazzocchi Sub 4 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.12 0.18
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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