Napoli v Sassuolo — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 17 January 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 21
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
5 – 9
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.15 – 0.16
Goals − xG
+0.39 – -1.14
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Napoli win
60.5%
Draw
22.8%
Sassuolo win
16.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Napoli are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLWDLWWWLL last 10
scored 16
from 14.6 xG
conceded 11
from 13.3 xG
Sassuolo are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LWDWLLLLWD last 10
scored 13
from 18.0 xG
conceded 14
from 15.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.78–0.81 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.99–0.77 | 1-0 13% | 52% | 46% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Napoli 0.61 xGSassuolo 1.14 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Napoli attacking right
Sassuolo attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Napoli |
Giovanni Di Lorenzo | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Antonio Vergara |
| 3' |
Napoli |
Rasmus Højlund | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Antonio Vergara |
| 6' |
Napoli |
Eljif Elmas | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Leonardo Spinazzola |
| 6' |
Napoli |
Stanislav Lobotka | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 9' |
 Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 9' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tarik Muharemovic |
| 9' |
Sassuolo |
Nemanja Matic | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Luca Lipani |
| 16' |
Napoli |
Giovanni Di Lorenzo | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Leonardo Spinazzola |
| 18' |
Sassuolo |
Luca Lipani | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 21' |
Sassuolo |
Sebastian Walukiewicz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrea Pinamonti |
| 23' |
Sassuolo |
Josh Doig | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 26' |
Sassuolo |
Nemanja Matic | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Armand Lauriente |
| 30' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alieu Fadera |
| 32' |
Sassuolo |
Alieu Fadera | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Armand Lauriente |
| 33' |
Sassuolo |
Alieu Fadera | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Armand Lauriente |
| 35' |
Sassuolo |
Aster Vranckx | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Andrea Pinamonti |
| 39' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 41' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
Napoli |
Antonio Vergara | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Sassuolo |
Luca Lipani | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Armand Lauriente |
| 49' |
Sassuolo |
Tarik Muharemovic | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 53' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 53' |
Sassuolo |
Nemanja Matic | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 62' |
Napoli |
Matteo Politano | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 71' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Sebastian Walukiewicz |
| 73' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 77' |
Napoli |
Pasquale Mazzocchi | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 80' |
Sassuolo |
Woyo Coulibaly | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 85' |
Sassuolo |
Laurs Skjellerup | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nemanja Matic |
| 87' |
Sassuolo |
Luca Lipani | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 91' |
Napoli |
Matteo Politano | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Scott McTominay |
| 93' |
Sassuolo |
Jay Idzes | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Armand Lauriente |
Players
Napoli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovanni Di Lorenzo DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Scott McTominay MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Rasmus Højlund FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Stanislav Lobotka MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Leonardo Spinazzola DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| Vanja Milinkovic-Savic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Juan Jesus DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Amir Rrahmani DC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Antonio Vergara AMC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| Eljif Elmas AMC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Sam Beukema DC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Matteo Politano Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Noa Lang Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pasquale Mazzocchi Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessandro Buongiorno Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
Sassuolo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Pinamonti FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.49 | 0.06 | 0.53 |
| Luca Lipani MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.02 | 0.17 |
| Armand Lauriente FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0.10 | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| Nemanja Matic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.14 |
| Tarik Muharemovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| Sebastian Walukiewicz DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| Jay Idzes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Arijanet Muric GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Alieu Fadera FWR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.03 | 0.22 |
| Josh Doig DL | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Aster Vranckx MC | 55 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Edoardo Iannoni Sub | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Laurs Skjellerup Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Woyo Coulibaly Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Luca Moro Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Walid Cheddira Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |