NEC Nijmegen v Excelsior — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 8 September 2026 · NED-Eredivisie · 2627

Eredivisie results-only Prediction generated 8 Sep 2026, 11:44 UTC

NEC Nijmegen

2–2

16:45 UTC

Excelsior

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 8 Sep, 07:54 · 9h before kick-off

NEC Nijmegen win

60.6%

model 61.4%

Draw

21.1%

model 21.9%

Excelsior win

18.3%

model 16.7%

612118

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (245 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.1%
2-1 9.9%
2-0 9.1%
1-0 7.3%
3-1 7.2%

Goals

Over 2.5	63.2%	Under 2.5	36.8%
BTTS yes	59.6%	BTTS no	40.4%
NEC Nijmegen 1+	88.7%	NEC Nijmegen 2+	64.1%
Excelsior 1+	66.0%	Excelsior 2+	29.3%

Expected goals 2.18 – 1.08. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

78/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

NEC Nijmegen (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 45%

62.8% fair odds 1.59

strong signal · 11565 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT

83.9% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 579 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

NEC Nijmegen carry the stronger rating, 1644 Elo against 1563.
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

NEC Nijmegen have an estimated 60.6% win probability, against 21.1% for the draw and 18.3% for Excelsior. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.18 for NEC Nijmegen and 1.08 for Excelsior.

Why NEC Nijmegen

NEC Nijmegen carry the stronger rating, 1644 Elo against 1563. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.1%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Excelsior can win

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for NEC Nijmegen, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Excelsior, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

NEC Nijmegen: 59% possession, 21.0 shots a match, 8.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Excelsior: 51% possession, 12.4 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

NEC Nijmegen are the model's most likely outcome at 60.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.1%. Confidence 78/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	612217	2.18–1.08	0%	0%	0%	Home ✗
ai-blend-oos	562420	2.03–1.14	0%	0%	0%	Home ✗
dc-xg	642115	2.28–1.04	2-1 10%	65%	59%	Home ✗
dc-xg-oos	652015	2.34–1.06	2-1 10%	66%	60%	Home ✗
deep	612118	2.24–1.16	2-1 10%	66%	62%	Home ✗

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen to win	60.9%	58.1%	44.4%	1.31×	1.72
Draw	21.5%	24.4%	25.6%	0.96×	4.09
Excelsior to win	17.7%	19.4%	30.1%	0.64×	5.15

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen & both teams score	33.8%	29.6%	21.2%	1.40×	3.38
NEC Nijmegen & not both score	27.1%	25.2%	23.4%	1.07×	3.98
Draw & both teams score	17.2%	18.0%	22.2%	0.81×	5.56
Excelsior & both teams score	11.4%	13.3%	17.2%	0.77×	7.54
Excelsior & not both score	6.3%	8.3%	13.1%	0.64×	12.01
Draw & not both score	4.3%	4.9%	3.5%	1.39×	20.57

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen & over 1.5	54.3%	48.9%	36.2%	1.35×	2.05
NEC Nijmegen & over 2.5	46.0%	45.0%	28.9%	1.56×	2.22
NEC Nijmegen & under 3.5	30.9%	30.7%	27.5%	1.12×	3.25
NEC Nijmegen & over 3.5	30.0%	26.1%	17.0%	1.53×	3.84
Draw & over 1.5	17.2%	18.0%	22.2%	0.81×	5.56
NEC Nijmegen & under 2.5	14.9%	12.8%	15.7%	0.82×	7.79
Excelsior & over 1.5	14.8%	12.8%	26.2%	0.49×	7.79
Draw & under 2.5	13.9%	12.8%	15.1%	0.85×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	13.9%	12.8%	15.1%	0.85×	7.79
Excelsior & over 2.5	12.6%	12.8%	20.4%	0.63×	7.79
Excelsior & under 3.5	11.0%	12.8%	19.9%	0.64×	7.79
Draw & over 2.5	7.6%	7.9%	10.7%	0.74×	12.62
Draw & over 3.5	7.6%	7.9%	10.7%	0.74×	12.62
NEC Nijmegen & under 1.5	6.5%	7.9%	8.4%	0.95×	12.62
Excelsior & over 3.5	6.7%	7.9%	10.4%	0.77×	12.62
Excelsior & under 2.5	5.1%	7.9%	9.9%	0.80×	12.62
Draw & under 1.5	4.3%	4.8%	3.5%	1.37×	20.85
Excelsior & under 1.5	2.9%	4.8%	4.1%	1.17×	20.86

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen (1UP)	75.0%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Excelsior (1UP)	38.5%	33.9%	—	—	2.95

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen (2UP)	60.9%	68.0%	—	—	1.47
Excelsior (2UP)	17.7%	17.2%	—	—	5.80

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen to win 2nd half	50.1%	51.0%	—	—	1.96
2nd half drawn	29.9%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Excelsior to win 2nd half	20.0%	18.4%	—	—	5.42

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior under 1.5 in 2nd half	84.6%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Excelsior over 0.5 in 2nd half	50.1%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Excelsior under 0.5 in 2nd half	49.9%	47.9%	—	—	2.09
Excelsior over 1.5 in 2nd half	15.4%	15.8%	—	—	6.31

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen over 0.5 in 2nd half	72.2%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
NEC Nijmegen under 1.5 in 2nd half	63.5%	63.0%	—	—	1.59
NEC Nijmegen over 1.5 in 2nd half	36.5%	37.0%	—	—	2.71
NEC Nijmegen under 0.5 in 2nd half	27.8%	26.3%	—	—	3.81

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen (+0.5)	82.3%	82.5%	69.9%	1.18×	1.21
Excelsior (+2.5)	79.1%	78.5%	86.8%	0.90×	1.27
NEC Nijmegen (-0.5)	60.9%	62.9%	44.4%	1.42×	1.59
Excelsior (+1.5)	60.6%	62.9%	74.7%	0.84×	1.59
NEC Nijmegen (-1.5)	39.4%	37.1%	25.3%	1.47×	2.70
Excelsior (+0.5)	39.1%	37.1%	55.6%	0.67×	2.70
NEC Nijmegen (-2.5)	20.9%	21.5%	13.2%	1.62×	4.65
Excelsior (-0.5)	17.7%	17.5%	30.1%	0.58×	5.72

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior to concede	89.4%	86.4%	83.6%	1.03×	1.16
Excelsior clean sheet	10.6%	13.6%	16.4%	0.83×	7.34

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior to concede in 1st half	61.9%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Excelsior clean sheet in 1st half	38.1%	35.5%	—	—	2.82

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior to concede in 2nd half	72.2%	70.6%	—	—	1.42
Excelsior clean sheet in 2nd half	27.8%	29.4%	—	—	3.40

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior under 3.5 goals	97.0%	97.5%	94.4%	1.03×	1.03
Excelsior under 2.5 goals	88.8%	87.8%	84.9%	1.03×	1.14
Excelsior over 0.5 goals	68.6%	68.0%	73.2%	0.93×	1.47
Excelsior under 1.5 goals	67.7%	68.0%	58.1%	1.17×	1.47
Excelsior over 1.5 goals	32.3%	32.0%	41.9%	0.76×	3.13
Excelsior under 0.5 goals	31.4%	32.0%	26.8%	1.19×	3.13
Excelsior over 2.5 goals	11.2%	12.2%	15.1%	0.81×	8.22
Excelsior over 3.5 goals	3.0%	2.5%	5.6%	0.44×	39.96

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior under 1.5 in 1st half	92.1%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Excelsior under 0.5 in 1st half	62.9%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Excelsior over 0.5 in 1st half	37.1%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Excelsior over 1.5 in 1st half	7.9%	5.9%	—	—	17.00

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior scores equally in both	42.3%	43.6%	—	—	2.29
Excelsior scores more in 2nd half	36.3%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Excelsior scores more in 1st half	21.4%	21.7%	—	—	4.61

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen (away no bet)	73.9%	68.4%	63.5%	1.08×	1.46
Draw (away no bet)	26.1%	31.6%	36.5%	0.87×	3.16

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior even goals	54.9%	52.7%	57.4%	0.92×	1.90
Excelsior odd goals	45.1%	47.3%	42.6%	1.11×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	75.5%	81.3%	—	—	1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals	24.5%	18.8%	—	—	5.33

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	76.5%	72.2%	—	—	1.38
Both halves under 1.5 goals	23.6%	27.8%	—	—	3.60

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	69.0%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
NEC Nijmegen to score 2+ in a row	56.7%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Either team to score 3+ in a row	32.1%	29.0%	—	—	3.44
NEC Nijmegen to score 3+ in a row	27.6%	25.2%	—	—	3.96
Excelsior to score 2+ in a row	21.4%	19.7%	—	—	5.08
Excelsior to score 3+ in a row	5.0%	5.6%	—	—	17.95

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	9.6%	7.4%	11.7%	0.63×	13.50
2-0	8.4%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.50
2-1	9.7%	7.4%	7.9%	0.94×	13.50
1-0	6.5%	7.4%	8.4%	0.88×	13.50
3-1	7.3%	7.4%	3.7%	2.03×	13.50
Any other score	8.3%	7.4%	6.5%	1.13×	13.50
1-2	5.0%	7.4%	8.1%	0.92×	13.50
2-2	5.6%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.50
3-0	6.3%	7.4%	4.3%	1.74×	13.50
0-0	4.3%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.30
0-1	2.9%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	58.30
0-2	2.2%	1.7%	5.9%	0.29×	58.31
0-3	0.9%	1.7%	2.3%	0.75×	58.31
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.9%	1.88×	58.32
1-3	1.9%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.31
1-4	0.6%	1.7%	2.1%	0.80×	58.32
2-3	2.2%	1.7%	2.4%	0.70×	58.31
2-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.5%	3.75×	58.32
3-2	4.2%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.30
3-3	1.6%	1.7%	2.1%	0.80×	58.31
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.6%	2.82×	58.32
4-0	3.5%	1.7%	1.8%	0.94×	58.30
4-1	4.1%	1.7%	3.2%	0.54×	58.30
4-2	2.4%	1.7%	1.2%	1.41×	58.31
4-3	0.9%	1.7%	0.6%	2.82×	58.31
4-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	11.28×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen (2nd half DNB)	71.5%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Excelsior (2nd half DNB)	28.5%	30.1%	—	—	3.32

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen leading at HT (DNB)	73.1%	73.3%	—	—	1.37
Excelsior leading at HT (DNB)	26.9%	26.7%	—	—	3.74

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen or draw (1X)	82.3%	80.6%	69.9%	1.15×	1.24
NEC Nijmegen or Excelsior (12)	78.5%	75.6%	74.4%	1.02×	1.32
Excelsior or draw (X2)	39.1%	41.9%	55.6%	0.75×	2.39

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen or draw at HT	82.9%	84.0%	—	—	1.19
NEC Nijmegen or Excelsior at HT	63.7%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Excelsior or draw at HT	53.4%	47.5%	—	—	2.11

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen or draw (1UP)	82.3%	88.7%	—	—	1.13
Excelsior or draw (1UP)	39.1%	41.5%	—	—	2.41

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen or draw in 2nd half	80.0%	81.6%	—	—	1.23
NEC Nijmegen or Excelsior in 2nd half	70.1%	73.8%	—	—	1.36
Excelsior or draw in 2nd half	49.9%	49.0%	—	—	2.04

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	54.2%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Neither half drawn	45.8%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen (DNB)	77.5%	74.7%	59.6%	1.25×	1.34
Excelsior (DNB)	22.5%	25.3%	40.4%	0.63×	3.95

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen to score first	63.1%	64.8%	—	—	1.54
Excelsior to score first	32.6%	27.3%	—	—	3.66
No goal scored	4.3%	4.3%	—	—	23.38

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	62.3%	56.6%	60.3%	0.94×	1.77
Not both teams to score	37.7%	43.4%	39.7%	1.09×	2.31

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	52.7%	47.3%	48.7%	0.97×	2.11
Not both score & under 2.5	24.3%	27.8%	28.8%	0.97×	3.60
Not both score & over 2.5	13.4%	12.4%	11.1%	1.11×	8.09
Both score & under 2.5	9.6%	8.3%	11.7%	0.71×	12.04

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	78.8%	79.6%	80.4%	0.99×	1.26
Both teams to score 2+	21.2%	20.4%	19.6%	1.04×	4.91

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	63.5%	65.4%	—	—	1.53
Both teams to score in 2nd half	36.5%	34.6%	—	—	2.89

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	48.7%	52.5%	—	—	1.90
Both score 2nd half only	28.2%	27.7%	—	—	3.62
Both score 1st half only	14.8%	10.8%	—	—	9.23
Both score in both halves	8.3%	6.8%	—	—	14.65

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	76.9%	81.2%	—	—	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	23.1%	18.8%	—	—	5.32

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	65.9%	66.4%	—	—	1.51
A half without a goal	34.1%	33.6%	—	—	2.97

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	42.1%	42.1%	46.7%	0.90×	2.38
4-6 goals	38.4%	35.2%	33.8%	1.04×	2.84
0-1 goals	13.7%	16.9%	15.7%	1.08×	5.92
7+ goals	5.8%	7.6%	4.1%	1.84×	13.20

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior to score exactly 1	36.4%	35.9%	31.5%	1.14×	2.78
Excelsior to score exactly 0	31.4%	33.8%	26.8%	1.26×	2.96
Excelsior to score exactly 2	21.1%	22.3%	26.9%	0.83×	4.48
Excelsior to score 3+	11.2%	12.8%	15.1%	0.85×	7.79

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen to score 3+	38.9%	35.6%	23.7%	1.50×	2.81
NEC Nijmegen to score exactly 2	26.7%	26.6%	26.9%	0.99×	3.76
NEC Nijmegen to score exactly 1	23.8%	23.3%	33.2%	0.70×	4.29
NEC Nijmegen to score exactly 0	10.6%	14.3%	16.4%	0.87×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen leading at HT	46.6%	52.5%	—	—	1.90
Draw at HT	36.3%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Excelsior leading at HT	17.1%	16.0%	—	—	6.25

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen -1: 1	39.4%	37.5%	—	—	2.67
NEC Nijmegen -1: 2	39.1%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
NEC Nijmegen -1: X	21.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen (0:1)	39.4%	37.4%	25.3%	1.48×	2.68
Excelsior (0:1)	39.1%	37.4%	55.6%	0.67×	2.68
Draw (0:1)	21.5%	24.2%	19.3%	1.25×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior (0:2)	60.6%	67.1%	74.7%	0.90×	1.49
NEC Nijmegen (0:2)	20.9%	20.3%	13.2%	1.53×	4.93
Draw (0:2)	18.5%	15.3%	12.2%	1.25×	6.55

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior (0:3)	79.1%	80.6%	86.8%	0.93×	1.24
Draw (0:3)	11.6%	9.9%	7.8%	1.28×	10.06
NEC Nijmegen (0:3)	9.3%	5.8%	5.6%	1.04×	17.14

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior (0:4)	90.7%	94.5%	94.4%	1.00×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	5.8%	4.6%	2.6%	1.78×	21.73
NEC Nijmegen (0:4)	3.6%	1.2%	3.2%	0.38×	81.84

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen (1:0)	82.3%	81.3%	69.9%	1.16×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	10.6%	12.7%	14.8%	0.86×	7.87
Excelsior (1:0)	7.1%	6.9%	15.5%	0.44×	14.49

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen (2:0)	92.9%	94.0%	84.5%	1.11×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	4.9%	2.3%	8.8%	0.26×	43.47
Excelsior (2:0)	2.1%	2.3%	6.8%	0.33×	43.64

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	49.5%	48.6%	—	—	2.06
1st half highest scoring	27.2%	26.3%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	23.2%	24.2%	—	—	4.13

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen to concede	68.6%	66.8%	73.2%	0.91×	1.50
NEC Nijmegen clean sheet	31.4%	33.2%	26.8%	1.24×	3.01

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen clean sheet in 1st half	62.9%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
NEC Nijmegen to concede in 1st half	37.1%	36.8%	—	—	2.72

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen to concede in 2nd half	50.1%	52.2%	—	—	1.92
NEC Nijmegen clean sheet in 2nd half	49.9%	47.8%	—	—	2.09

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen over 0.5 goals	89.4%	87.3%	83.6%	1.04×	1.15
NEC Nijmegen under 3.5 goals	81.1%	82.2%	89.2%	0.92×	1.22
NEC Nijmegen over 1.5 goals	65.6%	67.9%	50.5%	1.34×	1.47
NEC Nijmegen under 2.5 goals	61.1%	63.6%	76.3%	0.83×	1.57
NEC Nijmegen over 2.5 goals	38.9%	36.4%	23.7%	1.54×	2.74
NEC Nijmegen under 1.5 goals	34.4%	32.1%	49.5%	0.65×	3.12
NEC Nijmegen over 3.5 goals	18.9%	17.8%	10.8%	1.65×	5.62
NEC Nijmegen under 0.5 goals	10.6%	12.7%	16.4%	0.77×	7.86

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen under 1.5 in 1st half	74.9%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
NEC Nijmegen over 0.5 in 1st half	61.9%	64.2%	—	—	1.56
NEC Nijmegen under 0.5 in 1st half	38.1%	35.8%	—	—	2.80
NEC Nijmegen over 1.5 in 1st half	25.1%	20.1%	—	—	4.98

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen scores more in 2nd half	43.6%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
NEC Nijmegen scores equally in both	28.3%	27.9%	—	—	3.59
NEC Nijmegen scores more in 1st half	28.0%	27.9%	—	—	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	54.8%	51.4%	45.9%	1.12×	1.94
Excelsior (home no bet)	45.2%	48.6%	54.1%	0.90×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen even goals	50.6%	50.7%	51.0%	0.99×	1.97
NEC Nijmegen odd goals	49.4%	49.3%	49.0%	1.01×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	24.1%	24.4%	—	—	4.10
HT 1-0	23.0%	24.4%	—	—	4.11
HT 2-0	11.2%	10.9%	—	—	9.19
HT 0-1	11.0%	10.9%	—	—	9.20
HT 1-1	10.9%	10.9%	—	—	9.20
Any other HT score	8.5%	6.9%	—	—	14.39
HT 2-1	5.2%	6.9%	—	—	14.44
HT 0-2	2.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.06
HT 1-2	2.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.06
HT 2-2	1.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.15

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen at HT / NEC Nijmegen at FT	39.8%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
Draw at HT / NEC Nijmegen at FT	17.6%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.0%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Excelsior at HT / Excelsior at FT	9.2%	6.0%	—	—	16.61
Draw at HT / Excelsior at FT	6.7%	6.0%	—	—	16.68
NEC Nijmegen at HT / Draw at FT	5.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.73
Excelsior at HT / Draw at FT	4.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.68
Excelsior at HT / NEC Nijmegen at FT	3.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.71
NEC Nijmegen at HT / Excelsior at FT	1.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.77

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen to score last	63.2%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Excelsior to score last	32.5%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
No goal scored	4.3%	4.3%	—	—	23.38

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.7%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
NEC Nijmegen to lead by 1 at any time	75.0%	74.5%	—	—	1.34
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	59.5%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
NEC Nijmegen to lead by 2 at any time	47.3%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
Excelsior to lead by 1 at any time	38.5%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	28.1%	25.5%	—	—	3.93
NEC Nijmegen to lead by 3 at any time	24.7%	19.8%	—	—	5.06
Excelsior to lead by 2 at any time	12.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.58
Excelsior to lead by 3 at any time	3.4%	1.6%	—	—	60.81

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	82.8%	83.4%	87.5%	0.95×	1.20
2-6 goals	80.5%	83.4%	80.4%	1.04×	1.20
2-5 goals	73.4%	72.4%	75.3%	0.96×	1.38
1-4 goals	70.1%	72.4%	75.8%	0.95×	1.38
2-4 goals	60.7%	63.3%	63.6%	1.00×	1.58
3-6 goals	60.3%	63.3%	55.7%	1.14×	1.58
3-5 goals	53.1%	53.2%	50.7%	1.05×	1.88
1-3 goals	51.5%	53.2%	58.9%	0.90×	1.88
2-3 goals	42.1%	43.6%	46.7%	0.93×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.5%	43.6%	39.0%	1.12×	2.29
4-6 goals	38.4%	39.2%	33.8%	1.16×	2.55
4-5 goals	31.3%	35.2%	28.8%	1.22×	2.84
1-2 goals	29.6%	30.3%	37.0%	0.82×	3.31
5-6 goals	19.8%	18.8%	16.9%	1.11×	5.32
7+ goals	5.8%	8.9%	4.1%	2.16×	11.27

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen never behind	57.2%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Excelsior never behind	20.7%	24.3%	—	—	4.12

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.0%	50.9%	48.9%	1.04×	1.96
Even number of goals	52.0%	49.1%	51.1%	0.96×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.2%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.8%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.6%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.4%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.7%	95.4%	96.5%	0.99×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	87.1%	87.6%	90.9%	0.96×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	86.3%	87.6%	84.3%	1.04×	1.14
Under 4.5 goals	74.4%	72.5%	79.1%	0.92×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	66.1%	66.3%	59.7%	1.11×	1.51
Under 3.5 goals	55.8%	58.6%	62.3%	0.94×	1.71
Over 3.5 goals	44.2%	41.4%	37.7%	1.10×	2.42
Under 2.5 goals	33.9%	33.7%	40.3%	0.84×	2.97
Over 4.5 goals	25.6%	27.5%	20.9%	1.32×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	13.7%	12.4%	15.7%	0.79×	8.06
Over 5.5 goals	13.0%	12.4%	9.1%	1.36×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	4.3%	4.6%	3.5%	1.30×	21.90

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	93.8%	92.4%	95.7%	0.97×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	85.2%	86.7%	89.7%	0.97×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	82.8%	81.1%	79.2%	1.02×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	68.5%	67.4%	74.9%	0.90×	1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	56.6%	55.8%	48.3%	1.15×	1.79
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	43.4%	44.2%	51.7%	0.86×	2.26
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	31.5%	32.6%	25.1%	1.30×	3.07
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	17.2%	18.9%	20.8%	0.91×	5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	14.8%	13.3%	10.3%	1.28×	7.53
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	6.2%	7.6%	4.3%	1.76×	13.16

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	82.7%	85.7%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	75.9%	78.4%	—	—	1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half	58.0%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	42.0%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Under 0.5 in 1st half	24.1%	21.6%	—	—	4.62
Over 2.5 in 1st half	17.3%	14.3%	—	—	6.99

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	85.8%	85.4%	—	—	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	68.4%	68.1%	—	—	1.47
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	59.0%	55.6%	—	—	1.80
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	41.0%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	31.6%	31.9%	—	—	3.13
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	14.2%	14.6%	—	—	6.84

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior not to score in both halves	81.4%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
NEC Nijmegen not to score in both halves	55.3%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
NEC Nijmegen to score in both halves	44.7%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Excelsior to score in both halves	18.6%	15.9%	—	—	6.30

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	62.3%	60.3%	60.3%	1.00×	1.66
Only NEC Nijmegen scores	27.1%	26.0%	23.4%	1.11×	3.84
Only Excelsior scores	6.3%	7.1%	13.1%	0.54×	14.04
Neither team scores	4.3%	4.6%	3.5%	1.32×	21.68

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	21.9%	22.6%	22.1%	1.02×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	20.2%	22.6%	24.8%	0.91×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	18.6%	17.5%	17.0%	1.02×	5.73
6 or more goals	13.0%	12.1%	9.1%	1.33×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	12.7%	12.1%	11.9%	1.02×	8.25
Exactly 1 goals	9.4%	7.6%	12.3%	0.62×	13.11
Exactly 0 goals	4.3%	4.5%	3.5%	1.27×	22.41

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	33.9%	35.7%	—	—	2.80
2 goals in 1st half	24.6%	21.5%	—	—	4.64
No goals in 1st half	24.1%	21.5%	—	—	4.64
3+ goals in 1st half	17.3%	15.6%	—	—	6.41

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	59.0%	54.5%	—	—	1.83
1 goal in 2nd half	26.8%	29.4%	—	—	3.40
No goals in 2nd half	14.2%	14.4%	—	—	6.94

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior not to win both halves	96.5%	97.1%	—	—	1.03
NEC Nijmegen not to win both halves	76.4%	75.2%	—	—	1.33
NEC Nijmegen to win both halves	23.6%	24.8%	—	—	4.04
Excelsior to win both halves	3.5%	2.9%	—	—	35.05

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen to win either half	73.1%	73.1%	—	—	1.37
Excelsior to win neither half	66.4%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Excelsior to win either half	33.6%	32.2%	—	—	3.10
NEC Nijmegen to win neither half	26.9%	26.9%	—	—	3.72

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior not to win to nil	93.7%	92.1%	86.9%	1.06×	1.09
NEC Nijmegen not to win to nil	72.9%	75.4%	76.6%	0.98×	1.33
NEC Nijmegen to win to nil	27.1%	24.6%	23.4%	1.05×	4.06
Excelsior to win to nil	6.3%	7.9%	13.1%	0.60×	12.70

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen by 1	21.5%	24.1%	19.3%	1.25×	4.15
Draw	21.5%	24.1%	25.6%	0.94×	4.15
NEC Nijmegen by 3+	20.9%	24.1%	13.2%	1.82×	4.15
NEC Nijmegen by 2	18.5%	17.0%	12.2%	1.40×	5.87
Excelsior by 1	10.6%	11.7%	14.8%	0.80×	8.52
Excelsior by 2	4.9%	2.7%	8.8%	0.31×	36.68
Excelsior by 3+	2.1%	2.7%	6.8%	0.40×	36.77

Shot-level data has not been ingested for this match yet. Run python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.