NEC Nijmegen v Excelsior — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 8 September 2026 · NED-Eredivisie · 2627

Eredivisie results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

NEC Nijmegen

12:45

Excelsior

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 6 Sep, 07:53 · 57h before kick-off

NEC Nijmegen win

61.1%

model 61.2%

Draw

20.5%

model 21.8%

Excelsior win

18.4%

model 17.0%

612118

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (222 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.0%
2-1 9.8%
2-0 8.9%
3-1 7.2%
1-0 7.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	64.0%	Under 2.5	36.0%
BTTS yes	60.4%	BTTS no	39.6%
NEC Nijmegen 1+	88.9%	NEC Nijmegen 2+	64.5%
Excelsior 1+	66.7%	Excelsior 2+	30.1%

Expected goals 2.20 – 1.10. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

78/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

NEC Nijmegen (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 45%

63.4% fair odds 1.58

strong signal · 877 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

NEC Nijmegen or draw (1UP)

Double chance 1UP

84.1% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 419 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

NEC Nijmegen carry the stronger rating, 1644 Elo against 1563.
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

NEC Nijmegen have an estimated 61.1% win probability, against 20.5% for the draw and 18.4% for Excelsior. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.20 for NEC Nijmegen and 1.10 for Excelsior.

Why NEC Nijmegen

NEC Nijmegen carry the stronger rating, 1644 Elo against 1563. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 20.5%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Excelsior can win

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for NEC Nijmegen, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Excelsior, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

NEC Nijmegen: 59% possession, 21.0 shots a match, 8.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Excelsior: 51% possession, 12.4 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

NEC Nijmegen are the model's most likely outcome at 61.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.0%. Confidence 78/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	612217	2.20–1.10	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	642115	2.28–1.04	2-1 10%	65%	59%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen to win	64.1%	58.2%	44.6%	1.31×	1.72
Draw	20.8%	24.4%	25.3%	0.97×	4.09
Excelsior to win	15.1%	19.3%	30.3%	0.64×	5.18

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen & both teams score	33.5%	29.7%	21.3%	1.40×	3.36
NEC Nijmegen & not both score	30.6%	29.7%	23.4%	1.27×	3.37
Draw & both teams score	16.2%	17.9%	21.9%	0.82×	5.58
Excelsior & both teams score	9.4%	8.4%	17.3%	0.48×	11.94
Excelsior & not both score	5.7%	8.4%	13.2%	0.64×	11.95
Draw & not both score	4.6%	4.9%	3.5%	1.39×	20.47

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen & over 1.5	56.9%	55.0%	36.4%	1.51×	1.82
NEC Nijmegen & over 2.5	47.5%	45.2%	29.1%	1.55×	2.21
NEC Nijmegen & under 3.5	33.5%	30.9%	27.6%	1.12×	3.24
NEC Nijmegen & over 3.5	30.6%	30.9%	17.2%	1.80×	3.24
NEC Nijmegen & under 2.5	16.6%	18.0%	15.6%	1.15×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	16.2%	18.0%	21.9%	0.82×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	14.2%	12.9%	15.0%	0.86×	7.77
Draw & under 3.5	14.2%	12.9%	15.0%	0.86×	7.77
Excelsior & over 1.5	12.3%	12.9%	26.3%	0.49×	7.78
Excelsior & over 2.5	10.3%	12.9%	20.5%	0.63×	7.78
Excelsior & under 3.5	9.9%	7.9%	20.1%	0.39×	12.69
NEC Nijmegen & under 1.5	7.2%	7.9%	8.3%	0.95×	12.69
Draw & over 2.5	6.7%	7.9%	10.4%	0.76×	12.69
Draw & over 3.5	6.7%	7.9%	10.4%	0.76×	12.69
Excelsior & over 3.5	5.1%	7.9%	10.4%	0.76×	12.69
Draw & under 1.5	4.6%	4.8%	3.5%	1.36×	20.93
Excelsior & under 2.5	4.7%	4.8%	10.0%	0.48×	20.93
Excelsior & under 1.5	2.8%	4.8%	4.1%	1.16×	20.94

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen (1UP)	76.9%	79.2%	—	—	1.26
Excelsior (1UP)	35.0%	33.1%	—	—	3.02

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen (2UP)	64.1%	68.2%	—	—	1.47
Excelsior (2UP)	15.1%	17.0%	—	—	5.89

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen to win 2nd half	52.6%	51.8%	—	—	1.93
2nd half drawn	29.8%	26.3%	—	—	3.80
Excelsior to win 2nd half	17.6%	19.2%	—	—	5.20

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen (+0.5)	84.9%	82.4%	69.7%	1.18×	1.21
Excelsior (+2.5)	77.0%	78.5%	86.7%	0.91×	1.27
NEC Nijmegen (-0.5)	64.1%	62.9%	44.6%	1.41×	1.59
Excelsior (+1.5)	57.7%	57.0%	74.6%	0.76×	1.75
NEC Nijmegen (-1.5)	42.3%	43.0%	25.4%	1.69×	2.33
Excelsior (+0.5)	35.9%	37.1%	55.4%	0.67×	2.70
NEC Nijmegen (-2.5)	23.0%	21.5%	13.3%	1.62×	4.64
Excelsior (-0.5)	15.1%	17.6%	30.3%	0.58×	5.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior to concede	89.7%	86.5%	83.5%	1.04×	1.16
Excelsior clean sheet	10.3%	13.5%	16.5%	0.81×	7.43

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior to concede in 1st half	62.4%	64.8%	—	—	1.54
Excelsior clean sheet in 1st half	37.6%	35.2%	—	—	2.84

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior under 6.5 corners	91.5%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Excelsior under 5.5 corners	84.3%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Excelsior under 4.5 corners	73.0%	72.3%	—	—	1.38
Excelsior over 2.5 corners	62.2%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Excelsior under 3.5 corners	57.1%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Excelsior over 3.5 corners	42.9%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Excelsior under 2.5 corners	37.8%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Excelsior over 4.5 corners	27.0%	27.7%	—	—	3.62
Excelsior over 5.5 corners	15.7%	19.0%	—	—	5.25
Excelsior over 6.5 corners	8.5%	10.8%	—	—	9.27

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior under 3.5 goals	97.8%	97.6%	94.3%	1.03×	1.03
Excelsior under 2.5 goals	91.1%	92.3%	85.0%	1.09×	1.08
Excelsior under 1.5 goals	72.0%	71.9%	58.2%	1.24×	1.39
Excelsior over 0.5 goals	64.8%	63.0%	73.2%	0.86×	1.59
Excelsior under 0.5 goals	35.2%	37.0%	26.8%	1.38×	2.70
Excelsior over 1.5 goals	28.0%	28.1%	41.8%	0.67×	3.56
Excelsior over 2.5 goals	8.9%	7.7%	15.0%	0.51×	13.06
Excelsior over 3.5 goals	2.2%	2.4%	5.7%	0.43×	41.08

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior under 1.5 in 1st half	93.4%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Excelsior under 0.5 in 1st half	65.9%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Excelsior over 0.5 in 1st half	34.1%	32.2%	—	—	3.10
Excelsior over 1.5 in 1st half	6.6%	5.8%	—	—	17.16

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen (away no bet)	75.5%	73.6%	63.8%	1.15×	1.36
Draw (away no bet)	24.5%	26.4%	36.2%	0.73×	3.78

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior even goals	56.2%	56.9%	57.4%	0.99×	1.76
Excelsior odd goals	43.8%	43.1%	42.6%	1.01×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	76.7%	82.1%	—	—	1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals	23.3%	17.9%	—	—	5.58

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	75.2%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Both halves under 1.5 goals	24.8%	27.5%	—	—	3.64

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	68.6%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
NEC Nijmegen to score 2+ in a row	58.3%	55.4%	—	—	1.80
Either team to score 3+ in a row	32.7%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
NEC Nijmegen to score 3+ in a row	29.3%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Excelsior to score 2+ in a row	18.1%	16.4%	—	—	6.09
Excelsior to score 3+ in a row	3.8%	2.6%	—	—	37.75

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen corners (+3.5)	96.4%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
NEC Nijmegen corners (+2.5)	93.6%	88.7%	—	—	1.13
NEC Nijmegen corners (+1.5)	89.3%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
NEC Nijmegen corners (-1.5)	65.3%	66.8%	—	—	1.50
Excelsior corners (+3.5)	55.9%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
NEC Nijmegen corners (-2.5)	54.7%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Excelsior corners (+2.5)	45.3%	47.7%	—	—	2.10
NEC Nijmegen corners (-3.5)	44.1%	43.2%	—	—	2.31
Excelsior corners (+1.5)	34.7%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Excelsior corners (-1.5)	10.7%	15.8%	—	—	6.32
Excelsior corners (-2.5)	6.4%	11.3%	—	—	8.82
Excelsior corners (-3.5)	3.6%	6.0%	—	—	16.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	38.7%	35.2%	—	—	2.85
12+ corners	31.7%	32.0%	—	—	3.13
9-11 corners	29.7%	31.8%	—	—	3.15

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	76.1%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 7.5 corners	71.5%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	68.3%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Over 8.5 corners	61.3%	62.7%	—	—	1.60
Under 10.5 corners	59.2%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	50.8%	52.2%	—	—	1.91
Under 9.5 corners	49.2%	47.8%	—	—	2.09
Over 10.5 corners	40.8%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	38.7%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Over 11.5 corners	31.7%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Under 7.5 corners	28.5%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	23.9%	23.4%	—	—	4.28

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of corners	50.0%	50.4%	—	—	1.98
Odd number of corners	50.0%	49.6%	—	—	2.02

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	9.6%	7.4%	11.6%	0.64×	13.46
2-0	9.4%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.46
2-1	9.8%	7.4%	8.0%	0.93×	13.46
Any other score	8.5%	7.4%	6.6%	1.13×	13.46
1-0	7.2%	7.4%	8.3%	0.90×	13.46
3-0	7.1%	7.4%	4.3%	1.73×	13.46
3-1	7.4%	7.4%	3.7%	2.02×	13.46
2-2	5.1%	7.4%	8.6%	0.87×	13.46
0-0	4.6%	1.7%	3.5%	0.48×	58.57
0-1	2.8%	1.7%	4.1%	0.41×	58.58
0-2	2.0%	1.7%	6.0%	0.29×	58.58
0-3	0.7%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.59
0-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.9%	1.86×	58.59
1-2	4.5%	1.7%	8.1%	0.21×	58.57
1-3	1.6%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.58
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	2.1%	0.80×	58.59
2-3	1.8%	1.7%	2.5%	0.70×	58.58
2-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.5%	3.72×	58.59
3-2	3.9%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.57
3-3	1.3%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	58.58
3-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.6%	2.79×	58.59
4-0	4.1%	1.7%	1.8%	0.93×	58.57
4-1	4.2%	1.7%	3.2%	0.53×	58.57
4-2	2.2%	1.7%	1.2%	1.39×	58.58
4-3	0.8%	1.7%	0.6%	2.79×	58.59
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	11.15×	58.59

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen leading at HT (DNB)	76.1%	77.6%	—	—	1.29
Excelsior leading at HT (DNB)	23.9%	22.4%	—	—	4.46

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen or draw (1X)	84.9%	80.7%	69.7%	1.16×	1.24
NEC Nijmegen or Excelsior (12)	79.2%	75.6%	74.7%	1.01×	1.32
Excelsior or draw (X2)	35.9%	41.8%	55.4%	0.75×	2.39

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen or draw at HT	84.7%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
NEC Nijmegen or Excelsior at HT	63.7%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Excelsior or draw at HT	51.5%	47.4%	—	—	2.11

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen or draw (1UP)	84.9%	88.8%	—	—	1.13
Excelsior or draw (1UP)	35.9%	42.2%	—	—	2.37

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen or draw in 2nd half	82.4%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
NEC Nijmegen or Excelsior in 2nd half	70.2%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Excelsior or draw in 2nd half	47.4%	48.2%	—	—	2.08

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	54.1%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
Neither half drawn	45.9%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen (DNB)	81.0%	80.3%	59.5%	1.35×	1.25
Excelsior (DNB)	19.0%	19.7%	40.5%	0.49×	5.08

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen to score first	65.4%	69.3%	—	—	1.44
Excelsior to score first	30.0%	28.6%	—	—	3.50
No goal scored	4.6%	4.4%	—	—	22.84

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	59.1%	54.8%	60.2%	0.91×	1.83
Not both teams to score	40.9%	45.2%	39.8%	1.14×	2.21

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	49.6%	44.3%	48.7%	0.91×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	25.9%	33.6%	28.8%	1.17×	2.98
Not both score & over 2.5	14.9%	12.3%	11.2%	1.10×	8.11
Both score & under 2.5	9.6%	8.4%	11.6%	0.72×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	81.4%	83.2%	80.6%	1.03×	1.20
Both teams to score 2+	18.6%	16.8%	19.4%	0.87×	5.94

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	65.8%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	34.2%	32.4%	—	—	3.08

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	51.6%	56.1%	—	—	1.78
Both score 2nd half only	27.0%	26.0%	—	—	3.84
Both score 1st half only	14.3%	10.5%	—	—	9.50
Both score in both halves	7.2%	6.7%	—	—	14.93

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	78.5%	81.7%	—	—	1.22
Both teams to score by HT	21.5%	18.3%	—	—	5.47

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	64.8%	59.1%	—	—	1.69
A half without a goal	35.2%	40.9%	—	—	2.45

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	43.0%	42.1%	46.9%	0.90×	2.37
4-6 goals	37.2%	35.0%	33.7%	1.04×	2.86
0-1 goals	14.6%	17.0%	15.6%	1.09×	5.90
7+ goals	5.2%	7.6%	4.1%	1.83×	13.20

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior to score exactly 1	36.8%	36.0%	31.5%	1.14×	2.78
Excelsior to score exactly 0	35.2%	36.0%	26.8%	1.34×	2.78
Excelsior to score exactly 2	19.2%	19.6%	27.0%	0.73×	5.11
Excelsior to score 3+	8.9%	8.5%	15.0%	0.57×	11.78

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen to score 3+	39.8%	35.6%	23.7%	1.50×	2.81
NEC Nijmegen to score exactly 2	26.6%	26.5%	27.0%	0.98×	3.77
NEC Nijmegen to score exactly 1	23.4%	23.3%	33.1%	0.70×	4.30
NEC Nijmegen to score exactly 0	10.3%	14.3%	16.5%	0.87×	6.98

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen leading at HT	48.5%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Draw at HT	36.3%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Excelsior leading at HT	15.3%	15.7%	—	—	6.36

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen -1: 1	42.3%	42.7%	—	—	2.34
NEC Nijmegen -1: 2	35.9%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
NEC Nijmegen -1: X	21.8%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen (0:1)	42.3%	42.7%	25.4%	1.68×	2.34
Excelsior (0:1)	35.9%	37.3%	55.4%	0.67×	2.68
Draw (0:1)	21.8%	24.3%	19.3%	1.26×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior (0:2)	57.7%	62.8%	74.6%	0.84×	1.59
NEC Nijmegen (0:2)	23.0%	20.3%	13.3%	1.53×	4.92
Draw (0:2)	19.4%	15.3%	12.3%	1.25×	6.52

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior (0:3)	77.0%	80.6%	86.7%	0.93×	1.24
Draw (0:3)	12.5%	10.0%	7.8%	1.28×	9.97
NEC Nijmegen (0:3)	10.5%	10.0%	5.7%	1.76×	10.01

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior (0:4)	89.5%	92.0%	94.3%	0.98×	1.09
Draw (0:4)	6.4%	4.6%	2.6%	1.77×	21.70
NEC Nijmegen (0:4)	4.1%	1.2%	3.2%	0.37×	82.99

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen (1:0)	84.9%	81.5%	69.7%	1.17×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	9.4%	6.9%	14.9%	0.47×	14.45
Excelsior (1:0)	5.6%	6.9%	15.6%	0.44×	14.51

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen (2:0)	94.4%	94.0%	84.4%	1.11×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	4.1%	2.3%	8.9%	0.26×	44.15
Excelsior (2:0)	1.6%	2.3%	6.9%	0.33×	44.31

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	49.1%	48.2%	—	—	2.07
1st half highest scoring	27.3%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	23.6%	24.2%	—	—	4.12

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen to concede	64.8%	63.4%	73.2%	0.87×	1.58
NEC Nijmegen clean sheet	35.2%	36.6%	26.8%	1.37×	2.73

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen clean sheet in 1st half	65.9%	68.1%	—	—	1.47
NEC Nijmegen to concede in 1st half	34.1%	31.9%	—	—	3.14

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen over 2.5 corners	91.2%	88.3%	—	—	1.13
NEC Nijmegen over 3.5 corners	82.3%	81.3%	—	—	1.23
NEC Nijmegen over 4.5 corners	70.9%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
NEC Nijmegen over 5.5 corners	58.2%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
NEC Nijmegen under 6.5 corners	54.3%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
NEC Nijmegen over 6.5 corners	45.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
NEC Nijmegen under 5.5 corners	41.8%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
NEC Nijmegen under 4.5 corners	29.1%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
NEC Nijmegen under 3.5 corners	17.7%	18.7%	—	—	5.36
NEC Nijmegen under 2.5 corners	8.8%	11.7%	—	—	8.52

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen over 0.5 goals	89.7%	87.2%	83.5%	1.05×	1.15
NEC Nijmegen under 3.5 goals	80.4%	82.1%	89.1%	0.92×	1.22
NEC Nijmegen over 1.5 goals	66.4%	67.9%	50.5%	1.34×	1.47
NEC Nijmegen under 2.5 goals	60.2%	63.4%	76.3%	0.83×	1.58
NEC Nijmegen over 2.5 goals	39.8%	36.6%	23.7%	1.54×	2.73
NEC Nijmegen under 1.5 goals	33.6%	32.1%	49.5%	0.65×	3.12
NEC Nijmegen over 3.5 goals	19.6%	17.9%	10.9%	1.64×	5.60
NEC Nijmegen under 0.5 goals	10.3%	12.8%	16.5%	0.77×	7.84

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen under 1.5 in 1st half	74.3%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
NEC Nijmegen over 0.5 in 1st half	62.4%	64.6%	—	—	1.55
NEC Nijmegen under 0.5 in 1st half	37.6%	35.4%	—	—	2.82
NEC Nijmegen over 1.5 in 1st half	25.7%	20.4%	—	—	4.90

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	58.1%	56.7%	45.5%	1.25×	1.76
Excelsior (home no bet)	41.9%	43.3%	54.5%	0.79×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen even goals	50.5%	50.6%	51.1%	0.99×	1.98
NEC Nijmegen odd goals	49.5%	49.4%	48.9%	1.01×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	24.9%	24.3%	—	—	4.12
HT 1-0	24.1%	24.3%	—	—	4.12
HT 2-0	11.9%	11.0%	—	—	9.05
HT 1-1	10.3%	11.0%	—	—	9.07
HT 0-1	10.2%	11.0%	—	—	9.07
Any other HT score	8.5%	7.1%	—	—	14.09
HT 2-1	5.0%	2.2%	—	—	44.55
HT 0-2	2.2%	2.2%	—	—	44.77
HT 1-2	2.1%	2.2%	—	—	44.77
HT 2-2	1.0%	2.2%	—	—	44.86

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen at HT / NEC Nijmegen at FT	42.3%	43.2%	—	—	2.31
Draw at HT / NEC Nijmegen at FT	18.4%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.0%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Excelsior at HT / Excelsior at FT	7.7%	6.0%	—	—	16.56
Draw at HT / Excelsior at FT	5.9%	6.0%	—	—	16.62
NEC Nijmegen at HT / Draw at FT	4.8%	3.4%	—	—	29.09
Excelsior at HT / Draw at FT	4.1%	3.4%	—	—	29.12
Excelsior at HT / NEC Nijmegen at FT	3.4%	3.4%	—	—	29.15
NEC Nijmegen at HT / Excelsior at FT	1.5%	3.4%	—	—	29.23

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen to score last	65.6%	69.5%	—	—	1.44
Excelsior to score last	29.8%	27.6%	—	—	3.62
No goal scored	4.6%	4.4%	—	—	22.84

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.4%	95.5%	—	—	1.05
NEC Nijmegen to lead by 1 at any time	76.9%	78.5%	—	—	1.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	59.8%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
NEC Nijmegen to lead by 2 at any time	49.7%	44.1%	—	—	2.27
Excelsior to lead by 1 at any time	35.0%	29.5%	—	—	3.39
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	29.1%	25.2%	—	—	3.96
NEC Nijmegen to lead by 3 at any time	26.6%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Excelsior to lead by 2 at any time	10.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.60
Excelsior to lead by 3 at any time	2.6%	1.6%	—	—	63.31

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen most corners	75.0%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Excelsior most corners	16.9%	20.6%	—	—	4.86
Corners level	8.1%	8.4%	—	—	11.90

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	83.5%	83.5%	87.6%	0.95×	1.20
2-6 goals	80.2%	83.5%	80.4%	1.04×	1.20
2-5 goals	73.5%	72.4%	75.5%	0.96×	1.38
1-4 goals	71.3%	72.4%	75.8%	0.96×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.3%	63.5%	63.7%	1.00×	1.58
3-6 goals	59.3%	59.2%	55.7%	1.06×	1.69
1-3 goals	53.0%	53.1%	59.0%	0.90×	1.88
3-5 goals	52.5%	53.1%	50.8%	1.05×	1.88
2-3 goals	43.0%	43.6%	46.9%	0.93×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.4%	43.6%	39.1%	1.12×	2.29
4-6 goals	37.2%	39.2%	33.7%	1.16×	2.55
1-2 goals	30.9%	35.4%	36.9%	0.96×	2.83
4-5 goals	30.5%	35.4%	28.8%	1.23×	2.83
5-6 goals	18.9%	18.6%	16.8%	1.11×	5.37
7+ goals	5.2%	8.7%	4.1%	2.11×	11.46

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen never behind	60.4%	67.4%	—	—	1.49
Excelsior never behind	18.5%	18.6%	—	—	5.36

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.0%	50.8%	49.0%	1.04×	1.97
Even number of goals	52.0%	49.2%	51.0%	0.97×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.4%	51.5%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.6%	48.5%	—	—	2.06

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.7%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.3%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.4%	95.5%	96.5%	0.99×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	88.1%	87.7%	91.0%	0.96×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	85.4%	87.7%	84.4%	1.04×	1.14
Under 4.5 goals	75.9%	77.4%	79.2%	0.98×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	64.5%	61.8%	59.7%	1.03×	1.62
Under 3.5 goals	57.6%	58.8%	62.3%	0.94×	1.70
Over 3.5 goals	42.4%	41.2%	37.7%	1.09×	2.43
Under 2.5 goals	35.5%	38.2%	40.3%	0.95×	2.62
Over 4.5 goals	24.1%	22.6%	20.8%	1.09×	4.42
Under 1.5 goals	14.6%	12.3%	15.6%	0.79×	8.11
Over 5.5 goals	11.9%	12.3%	9.0%	1.36×	8.11
Under 0.5 goals	4.6%	4.5%	3.5%	1.28×	22.18

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	94.4%	92.5%	95.7%	0.97×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	86.4%	86.7%	89.8%	0.97×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	81.5%	81.1%	79.3%	1.02×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	70.5%	72.6%	75.0%	0.97×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	54.4%	51.8%	48.3%	1.07×	1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	45.6%	48.2%	51.7%	0.93×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	29.5%	27.4%	25.0%	1.10×	3.65
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	18.5%	18.9%	20.7%	0.91×	5.30
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	13.6%	13.3%	10.2%	1.30×	7.53
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	5.6%	7.5%	4.3%	1.73×	13.28

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	83.4%	86.5%	—	—	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	75.1%	78.6%	—	—	1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half	59.1%	64.0%	—	—	1.56
Over 1.5 in 1st half	40.9%	36.0%	—	—	2.78
Under 0.5 in 1st half	24.9%	21.4%	—	—	4.66
Over 2.5 in 1st half	16.6%	13.5%	—	—	7.39

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	85.1%	85.3%	—	—	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	69.7%	67.3%	—	—	1.49
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	57.6%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	42.4%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	30.3%	32.7%	—	—	3.06
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	14.9%	14.7%	—	—	6.79

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior not to score in both halves	84.1%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
NEC Nijmegen not to score in both halves	54.6%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
NEC Nijmegen to score in both halves	45.4%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Excelsior to score in both halves	15.9%	15.7%	—	—	6.39

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	59.1%	58.2%	60.2%	0.97×	1.72
Only NEC Nijmegen scores	30.6%	33.3%	23.4%	1.42×	3.00
Only Excelsior scores	5.7%	7.2%	13.2%	0.54×	13.96
Neither team scores	4.6%	4.6%	3.5%	1.31×	21.69

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.1%	22.6%	22.2%	1.02×	4.42
Exactly 2 goals	20.9%	22.6%	24.8%	0.91×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	18.3%	17.5%	17.0%	1.03×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	12.2%	12.1%	11.9%	1.01×	8.29
6 or more goals	11.9%	12.1%	9.0%	1.33×	8.29
Exactly 1 goals	10.0%	12.1%	12.3%	0.98×	8.30
Exactly 0 goals	4.6%	4.4%	3.5%	1.26×	22.60

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	57.6%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
1 goal in 2nd half	27.4%	29.6%	—	—	3.38
No goals in 2nd half	14.9%	14.6%	—	—	6.85

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior not to win both halves	97.2%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
NEC Nijmegen not to win both halves	74.3%	73.1%	—	—	1.37
NEC Nijmegen to win both halves	25.7%	26.9%	—	—	3.72
Excelsior to win both halves	2.8%	2.8%	—	—	35.58

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen to win either half	75.3%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Excelsior to win neither half	69.9%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Excelsior to win either half	30.1%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
NEC Nijmegen to win neither half	24.7%	20.5%	—	—	4.89

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior not to win to nil	94.3%	92.1%	86.8%	1.06×	1.09
NEC Nijmegen not to win to nil	69.4%	69.7%	76.6%	0.91×	1.44
NEC Nijmegen to win to nil	30.6%	30.3%	23.4%	1.29×	3.30
Excelsior to win to nil	5.7%	7.9%	13.2%	0.60×	12.60

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen by 3+	23.0%	24.1%	13.3%	1.81×	4.14
NEC Nijmegen by 1	21.8%	24.1%	19.3%	1.25×	4.14
Draw	20.8%	24.1%	25.3%	0.96×	4.14
NEC Nijmegen by 2	19.4%	16.9%	12.3%	1.38×	5.90
Excelsior by 1	9.4%	7.2%	14.9%	0.49×	13.80
Excelsior by 2	4.1%	2.7%	8.9%	0.30×	36.94
Excelsior by 3+	1.6%	2.7%	6.9%	0.39×	37.02