NEOM v Al Fateh — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 September 2026 · KSA-Pro League · 2627

KSA-Pro League results-only Prediction generated 9 Sep 2026, 09:54 UTC

NEOM

16:20 UTC

Al Fateh

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 9 Sep, 11:32 · 101h before kick-off

NEOM win

46.3%

model 44.8%

Draw

30.3%

model 30.7%

Al Fateh win

23.4%

model 24.5%

463023

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (554 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 14.4%
1-0 12.1%
0-0 11.6%
2-0 9.2%
2-1 8.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	40.2%	Under 2.5	59.8%
BTTS yes	46.8%	BTTS no	53.2%
NEOM 1+	74.2%	NEOM 2+	39.2%
Al Fateh 1+	61.0%	Al Fateh 2+	24.3%

Expected goals 1.35 – 0.94. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

80/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

100%

★ Best pick

Draw (home no bet)

Home no bet · usually 38%

56.0% fair odds 1.79

strong signal · 4791 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

NEOM or draw at HT

Double chance 1HT

83.8% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 975 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

NEOM carry the stronger rating, 1555 Elo against 1429.
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

NEOM have an estimated 46.3% win probability, against 30.3% for the draw and 23.4% for Al Fateh. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.35 for NEOM and 0.94 for Al Fateh.

Why NEOM

NEOM carry the stronger rating, 1555 Elo against 1429. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 30.3%. A combined 2.29 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 21% in this competition.

Why Al Fateh can win

They have had 15 days' rest to NEOM's 6.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for NEOM, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Al Fateh, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

NEOM: 40% possession, 9.4 shots a match, 9.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Al Fateh: 44% possession, 10.2 shots a match, 16.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·

NEOM are the model's most likely outcome at 46.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.4%. Confidence 80/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	453125	1.35–0.94	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	443125	1.34–0.94	1-1 14%	40%	46%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM to win	44.8%	41.6%	43.6%	0.96×	2.40
Draw	30.7%	31.5%	21.5%	1.46×	3.17
Al Fateh to win	24.5%	23.6%	35.1%	0.67×	4.23

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM & not both score	27.4%	26.5%	22.0%	1.20×	3.78
Draw & both teams score	19.1%	18.1%	16.4%	1.11×	5.52
NEOM & both teams score	17.3%	18.1%	21.7%	0.84×	5.52
Al Fateh & not both score	14.2%	12.7%	16.8%	0.75×	7.88
Draw & not both score	11.6%	12.7%	5.3%	2.39×	7.88
Al Fateh & both teams score	10.3%	12.7%	18.4%	0.69×	7.88

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM & under 3.5	34.2%	31.8%	27.5%	1.16×	3.15
NEOM & over 1.5	32.6%	31.8%	34.4%	0.92×	3.15
Draw & under 2.5	26.0%	26.4%	15.9%	1.66×	3.79
Draw & under 3.5	26.0%	26.4%	15.9%	1.66×	3.79
NEOM & over 2.5	23.4%	21.8%	27.6%	0.79×	4.58
NEOM & under 2.5	21.3%	21.8%	16.1%	1.36×	4.58
Draw & over 1.5	19.1%	17.7%	16.4%	1.08×	5.64
Al Fateh & under 3.5	19.8%	17.7%	21.5%	0.82×	5.64
Al Fateh & over 1.5	16.6%	17.7%	28.4%	0.62×	5.64
NEOM & under 1.5	12.1%	12.4%	9.3%	1.34×	8.06
Draw & under 1.5	11.6%	12.4%	5.3%	2.34×	8.06
Al Fateh & over 2.5	12.1%	12.4%	23.1%	0.54×	8.06
Al Fateh & under 2.5	12.4%	12.4%	12.1%	1.02×	8.06
NEOM & over 3.5	10.6%	12.4%	16.2%	0.76×	8.06
Al Fateh & under 1.5	7.9%	7.6%	6.8%	1.11×	13.21
Draw & over 2.5	4.7%	4.4%	5.8%	0.76×	22.79
Draw & over 3.5	4.7%	4.4%	5.8%	0.76×	22.79
Al Fateh & over 3.5	4.7%	4.4%	13.7%	0.32×	22.79

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM (1UP)	58.6%	57.0%	—	—	1.75
Al Fateh (1UP)	40.5%	42.3%	—	—	2.36

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM (2UP)	44.8%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
Al Fateh (2UP)	24.5%	23.0%	—	—	4.35

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	40.1%	41.3%	—	—	2.42
NEOM to win 2nd half	36.3%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Al Fateh to win 2nd half	23.6%	23.6%	—	—	4.23

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Fateh under 1.5 in 2nd half	89.0%	86.0%	—	—	1.16
Al Fateh under 0.5 in 2nd half	56.9%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Al Fateh over 0.5 in 2nd half	43.1%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Al Fateh over 1.5 in 2nd half	11.0%	14.0%	—	—	7.13

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM under 1.5 in 2nd half	81.9%	79.1%	—	—	1.27
NEOM over 0.5 in 2nd half	53.8%	54.2%	—	—	1.84
NEOM under 0.5 in 2nd half	46.2%	45.8%	—	—	2.18
NEOM over 1.5 in 2nd half	18.1%	20.9%	—	—	4.78

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Fateh (+2.5)	91.9%	92.3%	90.4%	1.02×	1.08
Al Fateh (+1.5)	78.1%	78.0%	77.8%	1.00×	1.28
NEOM (+0.5)	75.5%	78.0%	64.9%	1.20×	1.28
Al Fateh (+0.5)	55.2%	58.3%	56.4%	1.03×	1.71
NEOM (-0.5)	44.8%	41.7%	43.6%	0.96×	2.40
Al Fateh (-0.5)	24.5%	22.0%	35.1%	0.63×	4.55
NEOM (-1.5)	21.9%	22.0%	22.2%	0.99×	4.55
NEOM (-2.5)	8.1%	7.7%	9.6%	0.81×	12.97

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Fateh to concede	74.2%	75.6%	78.0%	0.97×	1.32
Al Fateh clean sheet	25.8%	24.4%	22.0%	1.11×	4.10

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Fateh clean sheet in 1st half	55.9%	57.3%	—	—	1.75
Al Fateh to concede in 1st half	44.1%	42.7%	—	—	2.34

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Fateh to concede in 2nd half	53.8%	54.6%	—	—	1.83
Al Fateh clean sheet in 2nd half	46.2%	45.4%	—	—	2.20

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Fateh under 6.5 corners	85.9%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Al Fateh under 5.5 corners	76.5%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Al Fateh over 2.5 corners	70.9%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Al Fateh under 4.5 corners	63.4%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Al Fateh over 3.5 corners	53.1%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Al Fateh under 3.5 corners	46.9%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Al Fateh over 4.5 corners	36.6%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Al Fateh under 2.5 corners	29.1%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Al Fateh over 5.5 corners	23.5%	24.0%	—	—	4.16
Al Fateh over 6.5 corners	14.1%	14.8%	—	—	6.75

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Fateh under 3.5 goals	98.4%	97.3%	93.0%	1.05×	1.03
Al Fateh under 2.5 goals	93.0%	92.2%	82.9%	1.11×	1.09
Al Fateh under 1.5 goals	75.8%	76.4%	61.0%	1.25×	1.31
Al Fateh over 0.5 goals	61.0%	63.6%	72.8%	0.87×	1.57
Al Fateh under 0.5 goals	39.0%	36.4%	27.2%	1.34×	2.75
Al Fateh over 1.5 goals	24.2%	23.6%	39.0%	0.61×	4.23
Al Fateh over 2.5 goals	7.0%	7.8%	17.1%	0.46×	12.75
Al Fateh over 3.5 goals	1.6%	2.7%	7.0%	0.39×	37.14

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Fateh under 1.5 in 1st half	94.5%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
Al Fateh under 0.5 in 1st half	68.6%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Al Fateh over 0.5 in 1st half	31.4%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Al Fateh over 1.5 in 1st half	5.5%	6.1%	—	—	16.32

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Fateh scores equally in both	47.8%	45.6%	—	—	2.19
Al Fateh scores more in 2nd half	32.5%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Al Fateh scores more in 1st half	19.7%	17.3%	—	—	5.77

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM (away no bet)	59.3%	58.7%	66.9%	0.88×	1.71
Draw (away no bet)	40.7%	41.3%	33.1%	1.25×	2.42

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Fateh even goals	57.6%	56.4%	52.7%	1.07×	1.77
Al Fateh odd goals	42.4%	43.6%	47.3%	0.92×	2.29

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	90.4%	90.5%	—	—	1.10
Both halves over 1.5 goals	9.6%	9.5%	—	—	10.58

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	54.6%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Both halves under 1.5 goals	45.4%	46.7%	—	—	2.14

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	47.3%	49.8%	—	—	2.01
NEOM to score 2+ in a row	32.9%	32.0%	—	—	3.12
Al Fateh to score 2+ in a row	18.2%	17.0%	—	—	5.88
Either team to score 3+ in a row	14.9%	12.9%	—	—	7.74
NEOM to score 3+ in a row	11.0%	12.8%	—	—	7.79
Al Fateh to score 3+ in a row	4.1%	3.2%	—	—	31.71

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM corners (+3.5)	91.3%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
NEOM corners (+2.5)	86.1%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
NEOM corners (+1.5)	78.8%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Al Fateh corners (+3.5)	72.9%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Al Fateh corners (+2.5)	63.2%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Al Fateh corners (+1.5)	52.3%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
NEOM corners (-1.5)	47.7%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
NEOM corners (-2.5)	36.8%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
NEOM corners (-3.5)	27.1%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Al Fateh corners (-1.5)	21.2%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Al Fateh corners (-2.5)	13.9%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Al Fateh corners (-3.5)	8.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.57

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	44.3%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
9-11 corners	29.6%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	26.2%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	81.0%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	73.8%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	66.7%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	65.1%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	55.7%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	55.1%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	44.9%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	44.3%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 10.5 corners	34.9%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Under 7.5 corners	33.3%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	26.2%	27.4%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	19.0%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	14.4%	11.2%	10.8%	1.04×	8.91
1-0	12.1%	11.2%	9.3%	1.21×	8.91
0-0	11.6%	11.2%	5.3%	2.11×	8.91
0-1	7.9%	7.4%	6.8%	1.09×	13.45
1-2	6.0%	7.4%	7.4%	1.00×	13.45
2-0	9.2%	7.4%	7.0%	1.07×	13.45
2-1	8.7%	7.4%	8.5%	0.87×	13.45
0-2	4.5%	1.7%	5.5%	0.31×	58.34
0-3	1.4%	1.7%	2.3%	0.75×	58.34
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.1%	1.61×	58.35
1-3	1.9%	1.7%	3.8%	0.45×	58.34
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.1%	1.61×	58.35
2-2	4.1%	1.7%	4.9%	0.35×	58.34
2-3	1.3%	1.7%	3.3%	0.51×	58.34
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.2%	1.41×	58.35
3-0	4.2%	1.7%	3.2%	0.54×	58.34
3-1	3.9%	1.7%	5.0%	0.34×	58.34
3-2	1.8%	1.7%	3.6%	0.47×	58.34
3-3	0.6%	1.7%	0.9%	1.88×	58.35
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.6%	2.82×	58.35
4-0	1.4%	1.7%	2.1%	0.81×	58.34
4-1	1.3%	1.7%	2.4%	0.71×	58.34
4-2	0.6%	1.7%	1.1%	1.61×	58.35
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.6%	2.82×	58.35
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.3%	5.65×	58.35
Any other score	1.5%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.34

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM (2nd half DNB)	60.5%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Al Fateh (2nd half DNB)	39.5%	36.8%	—	—	2.72

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM leading at HT (DNB)	63.4%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Al Fateh leading at HT (DNB)	36.6%	37.7%	—	—	2.65

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM or draw (1X)	75.5%	76.4%	64.9%	1.18×	1.31
NEOM or Al Fateh (12)	69.3%	68.5%	78.5%	0.87×	1.46
Al Fateh or draw (X2)	55.2%	58.4%	56.4%	1.03×	1.71

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM or draw at HT	80.9%	83.8%	—	—	1.19
Al Fateh or draw at HT	66.9%	67.1%	—	—	1.49
NEOM or Al Fateh at HT	52.2%	53.9%	—	—	1.86

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM or draw (1UP)	75.5%	82.5%	—	—	1.21
Al Fateh or draw (1UP)	55.2%	64.6%	—	—	1.55

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM or draw in 2nd half	76.4%	76.4%	—	—	1.31
Al Fateh or draw in 2nd half	63.7%	63.5%	—	—	1.57
NEOM or Al Fateh in 2nd half	59.9%	58.7%	—	—	1.70

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	67.1%	65.2%	—	—	1.53
Neither half drawn	32.9%	34.8%	—	—	2.87

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM (DNB)	64.6%	62.1%	55.4%	1.12×	1.61
Al Fateh (DNB)	35.4%	37.9%	44.6%	0.85×	2.64

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM to score first	52.1%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Al Fateh to score first	36.2%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
No goal scored	11.6%	6.9%	—	—	14.41

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	53.3%	51.6%	43.9%	1.18×	1.94
Both teams to score	46.7%	48.4%	56.1%	0.86×	2.07

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	45.4%	45.1%	33.2%	1.36×	2.22
Both score & over 2.5	32.4%	34.0%	45.5%	0.75×	2.94
Both score & under 2.5	14.4%	11.9%	10.8%	1.10×	8.41
Not both score & over 2.5	7.9%	8.4%	10.8%	0.78×	11.85

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	90.5%	89.9%	83.6%	1.08×	1.11
Both teams to score 2+	9.5%	10.1%	16.4%	0.62×	9.90

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	76.3%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	23.7%	26.1%	—	—	3.84

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	65.4%	63.7%	—	—	1.57
Both score 2nd half only	20.5%	23.4%	—	—	4.28
Both score 1st half only	10.9%	11.9%	—	—	8.43
Both score in both halves	3.2%	4.8%	—	—	20.65

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	85.9%	84.6%	—	—	1.18
Both teams to score by HT	14.1%	15.4%	—	—	6.49

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	53.8%	52.5%	—	—	1.90
A goal in each half	46.2%	47.5%	—	—	2.11

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	48.4%	46.5%	43.7%	1.06×	2.15
0-1 goals	31.7%	31.2%	21.1%	1.48×	3.21
4-6 goals	19.0%	19.1%	32.6%	0.58×	5.24
7+ goals	0.9%	2.0%	2.9%	0.70×	49.79

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Fateh to score exactly 0	39.0%	36.0%	27.2%	1.33×	2.78
Al Fateh to score exactly 1	36.7%	36.0%	34.0%	1.06×	2.78
Al Fateh to score exactly 2	17.3%	18.2%	22.0%	0.83×	5.49
Al Fateh to score 3+	7.0%	8.6%	17.1%	0.50×	11.64

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM to score exactly 1	35.0%	32.2%	32.5%	0.99×	3.10
NEOM to score exactly 0	25.8%	26.4%	22.0%	1.20×	3.78
NEOM to score exactly 2	23.7%	22.9%	24.9%	0.92×	4.38
NEOM to score 3+	15.5%	18.1%	20.9%	0.87×	5.51

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	47.8%	46.1%	—	—	2.17
NEOM leading at HT	33.1%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
Al Fateh leading at HT	19.1%	16.2%	—	—	6.17

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM -1: 2	55.2%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
NEOM -1: X	22.8%	23.3%	—	—	4.29
NEOM -1: 1	21.9%	23.3%	—	—	4.29

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Fateh (0:1)	55.2%	57.8%	56.4%	1.02×	1.73
Draw (0:1)	22.8%	23.6%	21.5%	1.09×	4.24
NEOM (0:1)	21.9%	23.6%	22.2%	1.06×	4.24

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Fateh (0:2)	78.1%	79.1%	77.8%	1.02×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	13.8%	11.4%	12.7%	0.89×	8.80
NEOM (0:2)	8.1%	7.7%	9.6%	0.81×	12.97

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Fateh (0:3)	91.9%	92.5%	90.4%	1.02×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.7%	6.5%	5.6%	1.16×	15.41
NEOM (0:3)	2.4%	2.6%	4.1%	0.62×	39.17

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Fateh (0:4)	97.6%	97.7%	95.9%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.8%	1.4%	2.9%	0.49×	70.71
NEOM (0:4)	0.6%	1.4%	1.4%	1.03×	70.75

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM (1:0)	75.5%	76.9%	64.9%	1.18×	1.30
Draw (1:0)	15.4%	17.3%	17.8%	0.98×	5.77
Al Fateh (1:0)	9.1%	7.5%	17.5%	0.43×	13.39

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM (2:0)	90.9%	92.9%	82.5%	1.13×	1.08
Draw (2:0)	6.7%	6.6%	10.5%	0.63×	15.12
Al Fateh (2:0)	2.4%	2.8%	7.1%	0.39×	35.91

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	44.1%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
Halves equal	30.1%	27.0%	—	—	3.70
1st half highest scoring	25.8%	26.1%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM to concede	61.0%	65.0%	72.8%	0.89×	1.54
NEOM clean sheet	39.0%	35.0%	27.2%	1.29×	2.86

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM clean sheet in 1st half	68.6%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
NEOM to concede in 1st half	31.4%	32.4%	—	—	3.08

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM clean sheet in 2nd half	56.9%	54.6%	—	—	1.83
NEOM to concede in 2nd half	43.1%	45.4%	—	—	2.20

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM over 2.5 corners	84.8%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
NEOM over 3.5 corners	72.0%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
NEOM under 6.5 corners	69.0%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
NEOM over 4.5 corners	57.5%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
NEOM under 5.5 corners	56.6%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
NEOM over 5.5 corners	43.4%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
NEOM under 4.5 corners	42.5%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
NEOM over 6.5 corners	31.0%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
NEOM under 3.5 corners	28.0%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
NEOM under 2.5 corners	15.2%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM under 3.5 goals	95.1%	96.6%	92.0%	1.05×	1.04
NEOM under 2.5 goals	84.5%	82.3%	79.1%	1.04×	1.22
NEOM over 0.5 goals	74.2%	73.1%	78.0%	0.94×	1.37
NEOM under 1.5 goals	60.8%	62.4%	54.3%	1.15×	1.60
NEOM over 1.5 goals	39.2%	37.6%	45.7%	0.82×	2.66
NEOM under 0.5 goals	25.8%	26.9%	22.0%	1.22×	3.71
NEOM over 2.5 goals	15.5%	17.7%	20.9%	0.84×	5.66
NEOM over 3.5 goals	4.9%	3.4%	8.0%	0.42×	29.37

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM under 1.5 in 1st half	88.4%	87.7%	—	—	1.14
NEOM under 0.5 in 1st half	55.9%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
NEOM over 0.5 in 1st half	44.1%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
NEOM over 1.5 in 1st half	11.6%	12.3%	—	—	8.15

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM scores equally in both	38.8%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
NEOM scores more in 2nd half	36.3%	37.1%	—	—	2.69
NEOM scores more in 1st half	24.8%	23.2%	—	—	4.31

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	55.6%	56.0%	38.1%	1.47×	1.79
Al Fateh (home no bet)	44.4%	44.0%	61.9%	0.71×	2.27

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM even goals	53.3%	50.9%	53.0%	0.96×	1.96
NEOM odd goals	46.7%	49.1%	47.0%	1.04×	2.04

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	38.6%	34.9%	—	—	2.87
HT 1-0	22.1%	22.5%	—	—	4.45
HT 0-1	14.2%	10.9%	—	—	9.14
HT 1-1	8.7%	8.0%	—	—	12.53
HT 2-0	6.5%	8.0%	—	—	12.55
HT 0-2	2.7%	2.5%	—	—	40.46
Any other HT score	2.8%	2.5%	—	—	40.46
HT 2-1	2.4%	2.5%	—	—	40.47
HT 1-2	1.6%	2.5%	—	—	40.51
HT 2-2	0.5%	2.5%	—	—	40.56

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM at HT / NEOM at FT	26.3%	25.1%	—	—	3.99
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	20.8%	20.9%	—	—	4.79
Draw at HT / NEOM at FT	16.5%	17.3%	—	—	5.78
Al Fateh at HT / Al Fateh at FT	12.5%	12.0%	—	—	8.33
Draw at HT / Al Fateh at FT	10.5%	12.0%	—	—	8.34
NEOM at HT / Draw at FT	5.3%	6.4%	—	—	15.51
Al Fateh at HT / Draw at FT	4.6%	3.6%	—	—	27.51
Al Fateh at HT / NEOM at FT	2.0%	3.6%	—	—	27.58
NEOM at HT / Al Fateh at FT	1.5%	3.6%	—	—	27.59

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM to score last	52.3%	54.8%	—	—	1.83
Al Fateh to score last	36.1%	38.4%	—	—	2.60
No goal scored	11.6%	7.1%	—	—	14.05

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	88.4%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
NEOM to lead by 1 at any time	58.6%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
Al Fateh to lead by 1 at any time	40.5%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	39.8%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
NEOM to lead by 2 at any time	26.9%	25.0%	—	—	4.00
Al Fateh to lead by 2 at any time	13.0%	11.0%	—	—	9.06
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	12.8%	11.0%	—	—	9.06
NEOM to lead by 3 at any time	9.6%	7.5%	—	—	13.42
Al Fateh to lead by 3 at any time	3.2%	2.6%	—	—	38.11

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM most corners	59.0%	55.6%	—	—	1.80
Al Fateh most corners	30.3%	34.3%	—	—	2.92
Corners level	10.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.61

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.4%	87.1%	87.3%	1.00×	1.15
1-4 goals	80.1%	82.1%	75.6%	1.09×	1.22
1-3 goals	68.4%	68.2%	59.5%	1.15×	1.47
2-6 goals	67.4%	68.2%	76.2%	0.90×	1.47
2-5 goals	65.3%	68.2%	71.5%	0.95×	1.47
2-4 goals	60.0%	62.7%	59.8%	1.05×	1.60
1-2 goals	48.1%	47.4%	38.7%	1.22×	2.11
2-3 goals	48.4%	47.4%	43.7%	1.08×	2.11
3-6 goals	39.3%	39.0%	53.4%	0.73×	2.56
3-5 goals	37.3%	39.0%	48.7%	0.80×	2.56
3-4 goals	31.9%	34.7%	37.0%	0.94×	2.88
4-6 goals	19.0%	18.9%	32.6%	0.58×	5.30
4-5 goals	17.0%	18.9%	27.9%	0.68×	5.30
5-6 goals	7.4%	8.9%	16.5%	0.54×	11.22
7+ goals	0.9%	2.3%	2.9%	0.78×	44.28

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEOM never behind	47.9%	54.5%	—	—	1.83
Al Fateh never behind	29.7%	31.5%	—	—	3.17

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	53.6%	50.1%	49.5%	1.01×	2.00
Odd number of goals	46.4%	49.9%	50.5%	0.99×	2.00

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	57.9%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Odd goals in 1st half	42.1%	44.9%	—	—	2.23

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	54.5%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	45.5%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	97.0%	96.0%	92.4%	1.04×	1.04
Under 4.5 goals	91.7%	92.3%	80.7%	1.14×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	88.4%	87.8%	94.7%	0.93×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	80.1%	81.6%	64.6%	1.26×	1.23
Over 1.5 goals	68.3%	67.7%	78.9%	0.86×	1.48
Under 2.5 goals	59.8%	57.8%	43.9%	1.32×	1.73
Over 2.5 goals	40.2%	42.2%	56.1%	0.75×	2.37
Under 1.5 goals	31.7%	32.3%	21.1%	1.53×	3.09
Over 3.5 goals	19.9%	18.4%	35.4%	0.52×	5.44
Under 0.5 goals	11.6%	12.2%	5.3%	2.29×	8.21
Over 4.5 goals	8.3%	7.7%	19.3%	0.40×	12.91
Over 5.5 goals	3.0%	4.0%	7.6%	0.52×	25.20

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.1%	97.3%	97.0%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	96.9%	97.3%	91.4%	1.06×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	90.6%	92.0%	77.0%	1.19×	1.09
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	75.0%	72.1%	55.4%	1.30×	1.39
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	55.9%	58.1%	72.7%	0.80×	1.72
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	44.1%	41.9%	27.3%	1.53×	2.39
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	25.0%	27.9%	44.6%	0.62×	3.59
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	9.4%	8.0%	23.0%	0.35×	12.51
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	3.1%	2.7%	8.6%	0.32×	36.69
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.9%	2.7%	3.0%	0.90×	36.72

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	92.7%	91.9%	—	—	1.09
Under 1.5 in 1st half	74.9%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Over 0.5 in 1st half	61.4%	65.1%	—	—	1.54
Under 0.5 in 1st half	38.6%	34.9%	—	—	2.86
Over 1.5 in 1st half	25.1%	26.1%	—	—	3.82
Over 2.5 in 1st half	7.3%	8.1%	—	—	12.32

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	84.9%	82.6%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	73.2%	75.7%	—	—	1.32
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	60.9%	58.5%	—	—	1.71
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	39.1%	41.5%	—	—	2.41
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	26.8%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	15.1%	17.4%	—	—	5.74

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Fateh not to score in both halves	86.5%	85.6%	—	—	1.17
NEOM not to score in both halves	76.3%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
NEOM to score in both halves	23.7%	24.2%	—	—	4.12
Al Fateh to score in both halves	13.5%	14.4%	—	—	6.92

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	46.7%	50.7%	56.1%	0.90×	1.97
Only NEOM scores	27.4%	25.4%	22.0%	1.16×	3.93
Only Al Fateh scores	14.2%	11.2%	16.8%	0.66×	8.94
Neither team scores	11.6%	11.2%	5.3%	2.11×	8.94

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	28.1%	25.0%	22.9%	1.09×	4.00
Exactly 1 goals	20.1%	22.3%	15.9%	1.40×	4.49
Exactly 3 goals	20.3%	22.3%	20.9%	1.06×	4.49
Exactly 0 goals	11.6%	12.3%	5.3%	2.31×	8.14
Exactly 4 goals	11.6%	12.3%	16.2%	0.76×	8.14
Exactly 5 goals	5.3%	7.8%	11.8%	0.66×	12.89
6 or more goals	3.0%	4.0%	7.6%	0.53×	24.74

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	38.6%	36.9%	—	—	2.71
1 goal in 1st half	36.2%	36.9%	—	—	2.71
2 goals in 1st half	17.9%	18.8%	—	—	5.31
3+ goals in 1st half	7.3%	8.1%	—	—	12.32

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	39.1%	38.9%	—	—	2.57
1 goal in 2nd half	34.1%	34.3%	—	—	2.91
No goals in 2nd half	26.8%	27.1%	—	—	3.69

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Fateh not to win both halves	95.3%	97.3%	—	—	1.03
NEOM not to win both halves	87.7%	87.8%	—	—	1.14
NEOM to win both halves	12.3%	12.2%	—	—	8.20
Al Fateh to win both halves	4.7%	2.7%	—	—	36.52

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Fateh to win neither half	61.9%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
NEOM to win either half	57.1%	58.2%	—	—	1.72
NEOM to win neither half	42.9%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
Al Fateh to win either half	38.1%	37.9%	—	—	2.64

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Al Fateh not to win to nil	85.8%	87.9%	83.2%	1.06×	1.14
NEOM not to win to nil	72.6%	74.8%	78.0%	0.96×	1.34
NEOM to win to nil	27.4%	25.2%	22.0%	1.14×	3.98
Al Fateh to win to nil	14.2%	12.1%	16.8%	0.72×	8.24

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	30.7%	29.2%	21.5%	1.35×	3.43
NEOM by 1	22.8%	23.4%	21.5%	1.09×	4.27
Al Fateh by 1	15.4%	17.2%	17.8%	0.97×	5.80
NEOM by 2	13.8%	11.8%	12.7%	0.93×	8.44
NEOM by 3+	8.1%	7.3%	9.6%	0.76×	13.77
Al Fateh by 2	6.7%	7.3%	10.5%	0.69×	13.77
Al Fateh by 3+	2.4%	3.0%	7.1%	0.42×	33.46