New York City v Atlanta United — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 28 October 2026 · USA-MLS · 2627

USA-MLS results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

New York City

23:30 UTC

Atlanta United

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 109h before kick-off

New York City win

58.0%

model 60.0%

Draw

23.0%

model 22.4%

Atlanta United win

19.0%

model 17.6%

582319

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (346 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.6%
2-0 10.1%
2-1 10.0%
1-0 9.7%
3-0 6.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	56.8%	Under 2.5	43.2%
BTTS yes	54.5%	BTTS no	45.5%
New York City 1+	86.2%	New York City 2+	58.8%
Atlanta United 1+	62.6%	Atlanta United 2+	25.8%

Expected goals 1.98 – 0.98. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

60/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

New York City (+0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 70%

82.8% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 1330 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Atlanta United not to score in both halves

Score both halves

84.2% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 827 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

New York City carry the stronger rating, 1512 Elo against 1358.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

New York City have an estimated 58.0% win probability, against 23.0% for the draw and 19.0% for Atlanta United. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.98 for New York City and 0.98 for Atlanta United.

Why New York City

New York City carry the stronger rating, 1512 Elo against 1358.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.0%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Atlanta United can win

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for New York City, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Atlanta United, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

New York City: 53% possession, 13.6 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Atlanta United: 47% possession, 12.2 shots a match, 11.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

New York City are the model's most likely outcome at 58.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.6%. Confidence 60/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	602218	1.98–0.98	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	622216	1.97–0.90	2-0 11%	55%	51%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City to win	61.9%	58.2%	45.3%	1.28×	1.72
Draw	22.2%	24.4%	24.8%	0.99×	4.09
Atlanta United to win	15.9%	19.4%	30.0%	0.65×	5.16

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City & not both score	34.6%	29.6%	21.1%	1.41×	3.37
New York City & both teams score	27.3%	25.2%	24.4%	1.03×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	16.0%	18.0%	19.2%	0.94×	5.57
Atlanta United & both teams score	8.1%	8.3%	18.0%	0.46×	12.01
Atlanta United & not both score	7.7%	8.3%	12.1%	0.69×	12.01
Draw & not both score	6.2%	8.3%	5.8%	1.45×	12.02

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City & over 1.5	51.2%	48.8%	37.2%	1.31×	2.05
New York City & over 2.5	40.2%	40.2%	31.0%	1.30×	2.49
New York City & under 3.5	38.9%	34.9%	28.4%	1.23×	2.87
New York City & over 3.5	23.0%	21.6%	17.0%	1.27×	4.63
New York City & under 2.5	21.8%	21.6%	14.4%	1.50×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	16.8%	18.0%	16.0%	1.12×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	16.8%	18.0%	16.0%	1.12×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	16.0%	18.0%	19.2%	0.94×	5.56
Atlanta United & over 1.5	11.3%	12.8%	23.7%	0.54×	7.79
Atlanta United & under 3.5	12.0%	12.8%	18.8%	0.68×	7.79
New York City & under 1.5	10.7%	12.8%	8.2%	1.56×	7.79
Atlanta United & over 2.5	9.0%	7.9%	20.5%	0.39×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	6.2%	7.9%	5.8%	1.38×	12.63
Atlanta United & under 2.5	6.9%	7.9%	9.6%	0.83×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	5.4%	7.9%	8.9%	0.89×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	5.4%	7.9%	8.9%	0.89×	12.63
Atlanta United & under 1.5	4.6%	4.8%	6.4%	0.75×	20.81
Atlanta United & over 3.5	3.8%	4.8%	11.3%	0.43×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City (1UP)	73.8%	75.6%	—	—	1.32
Atlanta United (1UP)	33.4%	33.0%	—	—	3.03

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City (2UP)	61.9%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Atlanta United (2UP)	15.9%	17.1%	—	—	5.85

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City to win 2nd half	49.9%	46.1%	—	—	2.17
2nd half drawn	32.7%	34.3%	—	—	2.91
Atlanta United to win 2nd half	17.4%	18.1%	—	—	5.51

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta United under 1.5 in 2nd half	89.8%	87.1%	—	—	1.15
Atlanta United under 0.5 in 2nd half	58.5%	54.6%	—	—	1.83
Atlanta United over 0.5 in 2nd half	41.6%	45.4%	—	—	2.20
Atlanta United over 1.5 in 2nd half	10.2%	12.9%	—	—	7.78

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City under 1.5 in 2nd half	69.1%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
New York City over 0.5 in 2nd half	67.5%	70.6%	—	—	1.42
New York City under 0.5 in 2nd half	32.5%	29.4%	—	—	3.40
New York City over 1.5 in 2nd half	30.9%	29.3%	—	—	3.41

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City (+0.5)	84.1%	82.5%	70.0%	1.18×	1.21
Atlanta United (+2.5)	81.2%	82.5%	89.4%	0.92×	1.21
Atlanta United (+1.5)	62.0%	62.9%	76.8%	0.82×	1.59
New York City (-0.5)	61.9%	62.9%	45.3%	1.39×	1.59
Atlanta United (+0.5)	38.1%	37.1%	54.7%	0.68×	2.70
New York City (-1.5)	38.0%	37.1%	23.2%	1.60×	2.70
New York City (-2.5)	18.8%	17.5%	10.6%	1.65×	5.72
Atlanta United (-0.5)	15.9%	17.5%	30.0%	0.58×	5.73

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta United to concede	86.1%	86.3%	82.3%	1.05×	1.16
Atlanta United clean sheet	13.9%	13.7%	17.7%	0.78×	7.28

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta United to concede in 1st half	57.1%	57.0%	—	—	1.75
Atlanta United clean sheet in 1st half	42.9%	43.0%	—	—	2.33

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta United to concede in 2nd half	67.5%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
Atlanta United clean sheet in 2nd half	32.5%	34.3%	—	—	2.92

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta United under 6.5 corners	81.8%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Atlanta United over 2.5 corners	74.6%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Atlanta United under 5.5 corners	71.6%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Atlanta United over 3.5 corners	58.1%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Atlanta United under 4.5 corners	58.0%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Atlanta United under 3.5 corners	41.9%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Atlanta United over 4.5 corners	42.0%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Atlanta United over 5.5 corners	28.4%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Atlanta United under 2.5 corners	25.4%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Atlanta United over 6.5 corners	18.2%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta United under 3.5 goals	98.7%	97.5%	94.0%	1.04×	1.03
Atlanta United under 2.5 goals	93.8%	92.3%	83.3%	1.11×	1.08
Atlanta United under 1.5 goals	77.4%	76.3%	61.2%	1.25×	1.31
Atlanta United over 0.5 goals	59.1%	59.4%	73.3%	0.81×	1.68
Atlanta United under 0.5 goals	40.9%	40.6%	26.7%	1.52×	2.47
Atlanta United over 1.5 goals	22.6%	23.7%	38.8%	0.61×	4.21
Atlanta United over 2.5 goals	6.2%	7.7%	16.7%	0.46×	13.07
Atlanta United over 3.5 goals	1.3%	2.5%	6.0%	0.42×	39.97

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta United under 1.5 in 1st half	94.9%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Atlanta United under 0.5 in 1st half	69.9%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Atlanta United over 0.5 in 1st half	30.1%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
Atlanta United over 1.5 in 1st half	5.1%	5.9%	—	—	16.95

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta United scores equally in both	49.1%	47.9%	—	—	2.09
Atlanta United scores more in 2nd half	31.7%	33.4%	—	—	3.00
Atlanta United scores more in 1st half	19.2%	17.9%	—	—	5.59

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City (away no bet)	73.6%	68.4%	64.6%	1.06×	1.46
Draw (away no bet)	26.4%	31.6%	35.4%	0.89×	3.17

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta United even goals	58.3%	57.0%	53.6%	1.06×	1.76
Atlanta United odd goals	41.7%	43.0%	46.4%	0.93×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	83.2%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	16.8%	17.0%	—	—	5.87

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	66.8%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	33.2%	31.6%	—	—	3.16

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	61.1%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
New York City to score 2+ in a row	51.5%	50.9%	—	—	1.96
Either team to score 3+ in a row	26.3%	25.2%	—	—	3.98
New York City to score 3+ in a row	23.6%	19.6%	—	—	5.09
Atlanta United to score 2+ in a row	15.0%	16.2%	—	—	6.18
Atlanta United to score 3+ in a row	2.9%	2.6%	—	—	38.94

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City corners (+3.5)	89.2%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
New York City corners (+2.5)	83.4%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
New York City corners (+1.5)	75.8%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Atlanta United corners (+3.5)	74.1%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Atlanta United corners (+2.5)	65.0%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Atlanta United corners (+1.5)	54.7%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
New York City corners (-1.5)	45.3%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
New York City corners (-2.5)	35.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
New York City corners (-3.5)	25.9%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Atlanta United corners (-1.5)	24.2%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Atlanta United corners (-2.5)	16.6%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Atlanta United corners (-3.5)	10.8%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	40.2%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
12+ corners	30.3%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	77.3%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 7.5 corners	70.1%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	69.7%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Under 10.5 corners	60.7%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	59.8%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	50.7%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	49.3%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	40.2%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 10.5 corners	39.3%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	30.3%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	29.9%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	22.7%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	10.7%	11.5%	8.2%	1.39×	8.72
1-1	10.6%	11.5%	10.4%	1.11×	8.72
2-0	11.1%	11.5%	6.3%	1.82×	8.72
2-1	9.9%	7.4%	10.0%	0.74×	13.50
3-0	7.3%	7.4%	4.2%	1.77×	13.51
3-1	6.5%	7.4%	4.8%	1.53×	13.51
0-0	6.2%	7.4%	5.8%	1.29×	13.51
Any other score	5.2%	7.4%	4.7%	1.56×	13.51
0-1	4.6%	1.7%	6.4%	0.27×	58.29
0-2	2.3%	1.7%	3.3%	0.52×	58.31
0-3	0.7%	1.7%	1.8%	0.95×	58.32
0-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.8%	2.17×	58.32
1-2	4.5%	1.7%	7.7%	0.22×	58.29
1-3	1.3%	1.7%	3.4%	0.51×	58.31
1-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.4%	1.27×	58.32
2-2	4.4%	1.7%	6.1%	0.28×	58.29
2-3	1.3%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.31
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	58.32
3-2	2.9%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.30
3-3	0.9%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.31
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.54×	58.32
4-0	3.6%	1.7%	1.2%	1.38×	58.30
4-1	3.2%	1.7%	2.4%	0.72×	58.30
4-2	1.4%	1.7%	1.6%	1.09×	58.31
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.8%	2.17×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.5%	3.80×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City (2nd half DNB)	74.1%	71.4%	—	—	1.40
Atlanta United (2nd half DNB)	25.9%	28.6%	—	—	3.50

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City leading at HT (DNB)	75.5%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Atlanta United leading at HT (DNB)	24.5%	25.2%	—	—	3.97

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City or draw (1X)	84.1%	80.6%	70.0%	1.15×	1.24
New York City or Atlanta United (12)	77.8%	75.6%	75.2%	1.00×	1.32
Atlanta United or draw (X2)	38.1%	41.8%	54.7%	0.76×	2.39

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City or draw at HT	85.3%	87.6%	—	—	1.14
New York City or Atlanta United at HT	60.1%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
Atlanta United or draw at HT	54.7%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City or draw (1UP)	84.1%	88.7%	—	—	1.13
Atlanta United or draw (1UP)	38.1%	41.2%	—	—	2.43

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City or draw in 2nd half	82.6%	81.9%	—	—	1.22
New York City or Atlanta United in 2nd half	67.3%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
Atlanta United or draw in 2nd half	50.1%	53.9%	—	—	1.86

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	59.0%	58.5%	—	—	1.71
Neither half drawn	41.0%	41.5%	—	—	2.41

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City (DNB)	79.6%	74.8%	60.2%	1.24×	1.34
Atlanta United (DNB)	20.4%	25.2%	39.8%	0.63×	3.97

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City to score first	64.5%	64.8%	—	—	1.54
Atlanta United to score first	29.3%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
No goal scored	6.2%	7.4%	—	—	13.48

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	51.4%	51.3%	61.3%	0.84×	1.95
Not both teams to score	48.6%	48.7%	38.7%	1.26×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	40.8%	41.6%	51.1%	0.81×	2.41
Not both score & under 2.5	34.8%	34.6%	29.5%	1.17×	2.89
Not both score & over 2.5	13.7%	12.4%	9.2%	1.34×	8.09
Both score & under 2.5	10.6%	12.4%	10.4%	1.19×	8.09

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	86.8%	85.6%	79.5%	1.08×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	13.2%	14.4%	20.5%	0.70×	6.95

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	71.8%	73.6%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	28.2%	26.4%	—	—	3.79

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	59.3%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	23.4%	21.3%	—	—	4.69
Both score 1st half only	12.5%	10.7%	—	—	9.31
Both score in both halves	4.8%	5.0%	—	—	20.06

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	82.7%	83.3%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	17.3%	16.7%	—	—	5.98

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	57.0%	57.3%	—	—	1.75
A half without a goal	43.0%	42.7%	—	—	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.3%	47.2%	43.0%	1.10×	2.12
4-6 goals	29.5%	26.6%	33.0%	0.81×	3.76
0-1 goals	21.5%	22.9%	20.2%	1.13×	4.37
7+ goals	2.7%	1.8%	4.1%	0.45×	54.23

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta United to score exactly 0	40.9%	37.3%	26.7%	1.40×	2.68
Atlanta United to score exactly 1	36.6%	35.9%	34.6%	1.04×	2.78
Atlanta United to score exactly 2	16.4%	19.6%	22.2%	0.88×	5.11
Atlanta United to score 3+	6.2%	8.5%	16.7%	0.51×	11.71

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City to score 3+	31.5%	32.5%	25.0%	1.30×	3.07
New York City to score exactly 1	27.5%	26.5%	31.1%	0.85×	3.77
New York City to score exactly 2	27.1%	26.5%	26.4%	1.01×	3.77
New York City to score exactly 0	13.9%	14.3%	17.7%	0.81×	6.98

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City leading at HT	45.3%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Draw at HT	40.0%	38.7%	—	—	2.59
Atlanta United leading at HT	14.7%	12.4%	—	—	8.04

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City -1: 2	38.1%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
New York City -1: 1	38.0%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
New York City -1: X	24.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta United (0:1)	38.1%	37.3%	54.7%	0.68×	2.68
New York City (0:1)	38.0%	37.3%	23.2%	1.61×	2.68
Draw (0:1)	24.0%	24.2%	22.2%	1.09×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta United (0:2)	62.0%	67.1%	76.8%	0.87×	1.49
Draw (0:2)	19.2%	15.3%	12.7%	1.20×	6.53
New York City (0:2)	18.8%	15.3%	10.6%	1.44×	6.54

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta United (0:3)	81.2%	85.3%	89.4%	0.95×	1.17
Draw (0:3)	11.1%	9.9%	6.7%	1.49×	10.07
New York City (0:3)	7.7%	5.8%	4.1%	1.43×	17.20

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta United (0:4)	92.3%	94.5%	95.9%	0.99×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	5.0%	4.6%	2.0%	2.26×	21.83
New York City (0:4)	2.7%	1.2%	2.1%	0.57×	81.81

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City (1:0)	84.1%	81.4%	70.0%	1.16×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	10.6%	12.7%	17.1%	0.74×	7.88
Atlanta United (1:0)	5.3%	6.9%	13.0%	0.53×	14.53

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City (2:0)	94.7%	94.0%	87.0%	1.08×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	4.0%	2.3%	8.6%	0.27×	43.58
Atlanta United (2:0)	1.3%	2.3%	4.5%	0.51×	43.75

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.6%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	27.4%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	25.0%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City to concede	59.1%	60.7%	73.3%	0.83×	1.65
New York City clean sheet	40.9%	39.3%	26.7%	1.47×	2.54

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City clean sheet in 1st half	69.9%	70.2%	—	—	1.42
New York City to concede in 1st half	30.1%	29.8%	—	—	3.36

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City clean sheet in 2nd half	58.5%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
New York City to concede in 2nd half	41.6%	45.0%	—	—	2.22

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City over 2.5 corners	84.9%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
New York City over 3.5 corners	72.4%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
New York City under 6.5 corners	67.8%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
New York City over 4.5 corners	58.3%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
New York City under 5.5 corners	55.5%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
New York City over 5.5 corners	44.5%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
New York City under 4.5 corners	41.7%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
New York City over 6.5 corners	32.2%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
New York City under 3.5 corners	27.6%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
New York City under 2.5 corners	15.1%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City under 3.5 goals	86.3%	87.3%	90.6%	0.96×	1.15
New York City over 0.5 goals	86.1%	87.3%	82.3%	1.06×	1.15
New York City under 2.5 goals	68.5%	68.0%	75.0%	0.91×	1.47
New York City over 1.5 goals	58.6%	58.6%	51.3%	1.14×	1.71
New York City under 1.5 goals	41.4%	41.4%	48.7%	0.85×	2.42
New York City over 2.5 goals	31.5%	32.0%	25.0%	1.28×	3.12
New York City under 0.5 goals	13.9%	12.8%	17.7%	0.72×	7.84
New York City over 3.5 goals	13.7%	12.7%	9.4%	1.36×	7.84

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City under 1.5 in 1st half	79.2%	77.1%	—	—	1.30
New York City over 0.5 in 1st half	57.1%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
New York City under 0.5 in 1st half	42.9%	43.2%	—	—	2.31
New York City over 1.5 in 1st half	20.8%	22.9%	—	—	4.37

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City scores more in 2nd half	41.9%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
New York City scores equally in both	30.7%	33.1%	—	—	3.02
New York City scores more in 1st half	27.4%	27.7%	—	—	3.61

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	58.3%	56.4%	45.3%	1.25×	1.77
Atlanta United (home no bet)	41.7%	43.6%	54.7%	0.80×	2.30

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City even goals	51.0%	50.7%	51.0%	0.99×	1.97
New York City odd goals	49.0%	49.3%	49.0%	1.01×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	30.1%	33.0%	—	—	3.03
HT 1-0	25.3%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
HT 2-0	10.8%	11.0%	—	—	9.13
HT 0-1	10.6%	11.0%	—	—	9.13
HT 1-1	9.2%	6.9%	—	—	14.44
Any other HT score	6.0%	6.9%	—	—	14.49
HT 2-1	3.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.04
HT 0-2	1.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.17
HT 1-2	1.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.19
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.25

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City at HT / New York City at FT	39.5%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
Draw at HT / New York City at FT	19.6%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.7%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Atlanta United at HT / Atlanta United at FT	7.9%	6.0%	—	—	16.60
Draw at HT / Atlanta United at FT	6.7%	6.0%	—	—	16.63
New York City at HT / Draw at FT	4.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.62
Atlanta United at HT / Draw at FT	4.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.64
Atlanta United at HT / New York City at FT	2.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.69
New York City at HT / Atlanta United at FT	1.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.74

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City to score last	64.6%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Atlanta United to score last	29.2%	27.8%	—	—	3.60
No goal scored	6.2%	7.4%	—	—	13.48

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.8%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
New York City to lead by 1 at any time	73.8%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	53.2%	50.9%	—	—	1.97
New York City to lead by 2 at any time	44.2%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Atlanta United to lead by 1 at any time	33.4%	29.9%	—	—	3.35
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	23.6%	19.7%	—	—	5.09
New York City to lead by 3 at any time	21.5%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Atlanta United to lead by 2 at any time	9.1%	6.7%	—	—	14.84
Atlanta United to lead by 3 at any time	2.0%	1.6%	—	—	62.70

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City most corners	56.1%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
Atlanta United most corners	33.4%	34.3%	—	—	2.91
Corners level	10.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.7%	87.4%	83.4%	1.05×	1.14
1-4 goals	77.5%	78.7%	73.2%	1.08×	1.27
2-6 goals	75.8%	78.7%	75.9%	1.04×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.4%	72.4%	69.0%	1.05×	1.38
2-4 goals	62.3%	63.3%	58.7%	1.08×	1.58
1-3 goals	61.5%	63.3%	57.4%	1.10×	1.58
3-6 goals	51.9%	53.2%	56.3%	0.94×	1.88
3-5 goals	47.5%	48.5%	49.4%	0.98×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.3%	48.5%	43.0%	1.13×	2.06
1-2 goals	39.2%	39.2%	34.2%	1.15×	2.55
3-4 goals	38.3%	39.2%	39.1%	1.00×	2.55
4-6 goals	29.5%	30.2%	33.0%	0.92×	3.31
4-5 goals	25.2%	30.2%	26.2%	1.16×	3.31
5-6 goals	13.5%	14.8%	17.2%	0.86×	6.75
7+ goals	2.7%	2.6%	4.1%	0.63×	39.10

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City never behind	60.4%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Atlanta United never behind	20.0%	24.4%	—	—	4.10

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.8%	50.9%	50.5%	1.01×	1.96
Even number of goals	51.2%	49.1%	49.5%	0.99×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.7%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.3%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.2%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.8%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	93.8%	92.3%	94.3%	0.98×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	92.9%	92.3%	89.1%	1.04×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	83.8%	82.3%	78.8%	1.04×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	78.5%	77.3%	79.8%	0.97×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	67.8%	66.3%	63.0%	1.05×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	54.6%	52.5%	60.2%	0.87×	1.90
Under 2.5 goals	45.4%	47.5%	39.8%	1.19×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	32.2%	33.7%	37.0%	0.91×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	21.5%	22.7%	20.2%	1.12×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	16.2%	17.7%	21.2%	0.83×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	7.1%	7.7%	10.9%	0.71×	12.94
Under 0.5 goals	6.2%	7.7%	5.8%	1.34×	12.94

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.2%	97.2%	95.6%	1.02×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	92.2%	92.4%	87.8%	1.05×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	80.7%	81.1%	74.8%	1.08×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	71.7%	72.4%	74.9%	0.97×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	58.5%	55.8%	51.8%	1.08×	1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	41.5%	44.2%	48.2%	0.92×	2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	28.3%	27.6%	25.1%	1.10×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	19.3%	18.9%	25.2%	0.75×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	7.8%	7.6%	12.2%	0.62×	13.15
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.8%	2.8%	4.4%	0.65×	35.57

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	87.8%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	69.9%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half	66.0%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	34.0%	31.5%	—	—	3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half	30.1%	31.4%	—	—	3.19
Over 2.5 in 1st half	12.2%	10.8%	—	—	9.25

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	80.8%	83.2%	—	—	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	76.8%	79.1%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	50.4%	52.9%	—	—	1.89
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	49.6%	47.1%	—	—	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	23.2%	20.9%	—	—	4.79
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	19.2%	16.8%	—	—	5.95

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta United not to score in both halves	87.5%	85.6%	—	—	1.17
New York City not to score in both halves	61.5%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
New York City to score in both halves	38.5%	36.6%	—	—	2.74
Atlanta United to score in both halves	12.5%	14.4%	—	—	6.93

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	51.4%	53.8%	61.3%	0.88×	1.86
Only New York City scores	34.6%	33.3%	21.1%	1.58×	3.00
Only Atlanta United scores	7.7%	7.1%	12.1%	0.59×	14.04
Neither team scores	6.2%	7.1%	5.8%	1.24×	14.05

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.9%	22.6%	19.7%	1.14×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.6%	23.3%	0.97×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	16.0%	17.5%	15.9%	1.10×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	15.3%	17.5%	14.5%	1.20×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	9.2%	7.6%	10.4%	0.73×	13.13
6 or more goals	7.1%	7.6%	10.9%	0.70×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	6.2%	7.6%	5.8%	1.32×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.9%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	30.1%	35.7%	—	—	2.80
2 goals in 1st half	21.9%	21.5%	—	—	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	12.2%	10.7%	—	—	9.32

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	49.6%	45.4%	—	—	2.20
1 goal in 2nd half	31.2%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	19.2%	16.5%	—	—	6.06

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta United not to win both halves	97.4%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
New York City not to win both halves	77.3%	75.4%	—	—	1.33
New York City to win both halves	22.7%	24.6%	—	—	4.06
Atlanta United to win both halves	2.6%	2.8%	—	—	35.73

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City to win either half	72.5%	73.0%	—	—	1.37
Atlanta United to win neither half	70.4%	72.9%	—	—	1.37
Atlanta United to win either half	29.6%	27.1%	—	—	3.69
New York City to win neither half	27.5%	27.0%	—	—	3.71

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta United not to win to nil	92.3%	92.1%	87.9%	1.05×	1.09
New York City not to win to nil	65.4%	69.6%	78.9%	0.88×	1.44
New York City to win to nil	34.6%	30.4%	21.1%	1.44×	3.29
Atlanta United to win to nil	7.7%	7.9%	12.1%	0.66×	12.65

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City by 1	24.0%	24.1%	22.2%	1.09×	4.15
Draw	22.2%	24.1%	24.8%	0.97×	4.15
New York City by 2	19.2%	17.1%	12.7%	1.34×	5.87
New York City by 3+	18.8%	17.1%	10.6%	1.61×	5.87
Atlanta United by 1	10.6%	11.8%	17.1%	0.69×	8.51
Atlanta United by 2	4.0%	2.7%	8.6%	0.32×	36.78
Atlanta United by 3+	1.3%	2.7%	4.5%	0.60×	36.86