New York City v New England Revolution — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 10 September 2026 · USA-MLS · 2627

USA-MLS results-only Prediction generated 9 Sep 2026, 09:54 UTC

New York City

1–2

00:00 UTC

New England Revolution

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 9 Sep, 11:32 · 12h before kick-off

New York City win

43.7%

model 40.9%

Draw

27.4%

model 26.7%

New England Revolution win

28.9%

model 32.4%

442729

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (554 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.7%
1-0 9.1%
2-1 8.8%
0-1 7.9%
1-2 7.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	50.7%	Under 2.5	49.3%
BTTS yes	55.3%	BTTS no	44.7%
New York City 1+	76.4%	New York City 2+	42.4%
New England Revolution 1+	71.6%	New England Revolution 2+	35.9%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.26. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

59/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

1-4 goals

Multi goal · usually 73%

78.9% fair odds 1.27

moderate signal · 2374 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

New England Revolution not to win to nil

Win to nil · usually 88%

83.5% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1055 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

New York City carry the stronger rating, 1533 Elo against 1504.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

New York City have an estimated 43.7% win probability, against 28.9% for New England Revolution and 27.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.45 for New York City and 1.26 for New England Revolution.

Why New York City

New York City carry the stronger rating, 1533 Elo against 1504.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.4%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.45 to 1.26. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why New England Revolution can win

Nothing in the data singles out New England Revolution.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for New York City, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for New England Revolution, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

New York City: 50% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 13.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. New England Revolution: 55% possession, 16.4 shots a match, 10.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·

New York City are the model's most likely outcome at 43.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.7%. Confidence 59/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	412732	1.45–1.26	0%	0%	0%	Home ✗
ai-blend-oos	412633	1.50–1.32	0%	0%	0%	Home ✗
dc-xg	442729	1.48–1.14	1-1 13%	49%	53%	Home ✗
dc-xg-oos	472627	1.52–1.11	1-1 12%	49%	52%	Home ✗

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City to win	44.3%	43.0%	45.4%	0.95×	2.32
New England Revolution to win	28.8%	27.9%	29.9%	0.93×	3.59
Draw	26.9%	27.8%	24.9%	1.12×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City & not both score	24.1%	21.9%	21.1%	1.04×	4.58
New York City & both teams score	20.3%	21.8%	24.4%	0.89×	4.58
Draw & both teams score	19.1%	17.9%	19.1%	0.94×	5.58
New England Revolution & not both score	15.0%	13.3%	12.3%	1.08×	7.54
New England Revolution & both teams score	13.8%	13.3%	17.8%	0.75×	7.54
Draw & not both score	7.8%	8.4%	5.8%	1.43×	11.93

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City & over 1.5	34.1%	30.8%	37.1%	0.83×	3.24
New York City & under 3.5	31.1%	30.8%	28.3%	1.09×	3.24
New York City & over 2.5	26.2%	26.0%	30.9%	0.84×	3.84
New England Revolution & under 3.5	21.4%	21.6%	18.8%	1.15×	4.63
New England Revolution & over 1.5	21.0%	21.6%	23.5%	0.92×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	20.6%	21.6%	16.0%	1.35×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	20.6%	21.6%	16.0%	1.35×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.1%	18.0%	19.1%	0.94×	5.56
New York City & under 2.5	18.1%	18.0%	14.5%	1.24×	5.56
New England Revolution & over 2.5	16.3%	18.0%	20.3%	0.89×	5.56
New York City & over 3.5	13.2%	12.9%	17.2%	0.75×	7.76
New England Revolution & under 2.5	12.5%	12.9%	9.7%	1.32×	7.76
New York City & under 1.5	10.2%	12.9%	8.4%	1.54×	7.76
Draw & under 1.5	7.8%	7.9%	5.8%	1.35×	12.65
New England Revolution & under 1.5	7.8%	7.9%	6.5%	1.21×	12.65
New England Revolution & over 3.5	7.4%	7.9%	11.2%	0.70×	12.65
Draw & over 2.5	6.3%	7.9%	8.9%	0.88×	12.65
Draw & over 3.5	6.3%	7.9%	8.9%	0.88×	12.65

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City (1UP)	59.7%	58.2%	—	—	1.72
New England Revolution (1UP)	46.1%	43.2%	—	—	2.32

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City (2UP)	44.3%	47.8%	—	—	2.09
New England Revolution (2UP)	28.8%	24.9%	—	—	4.01

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	36.5%	35.9%	—	—	2.78
New York City to win 2nd half	36.3%	35.9%	—	—	2.78
New England Revolution to win 2nd half	27.2%	26.4%	—	—	3.79

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New England Revolution under 1.5 in 2nd half	84.9%	84.4%	—	—	1.19
New England Revolution under 0.5 in 2nd half	50.3%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
New England Revolution over 0.5 in 2nd half	49.7%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
New England Revolution over 1.5 in 2nd half	15.1%	15.6%	—	—	6.41

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City under 1.5 in 2nd half	79.3%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
New York City over 0.5 in 2nd half	57.0%	58.9%	—	—	1.70
New York City under 0.5 in 2nd half	43.0%	41.1%	—	—	2.44
New York City over 1.5 in 2nd half	20.7%	24.2%	—	—	4.14

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New England Revolution (+2.5)	91.4%	92.1%	89.5%	1.03×	1.09
New England Revolution (+1.5)	77.9%	78.4%	76.7%	1.02×	1.28
New York City (+0.5)	71.2%	73.7%	70.1%	1.05×	1.36
New England Revolution (+0.5)	55.7%	57.0%	54.6%	1.04×	1.76
New York City (-0.5)	44.3%	43.0%	45.4%	0.95×	2.33
New England Revolution (-0.5)	28.8%	26.3%	29.9%	0.88×	3.81
New York City (-1.5)	22.1%	21.6%	23.3%	0.93×	4.63
New York City (-2.5)	8.6%	7.9%	10.5%	0.75×	12.58

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New England Revolution to concede	77.2%	78.9%	82.0%	0.96×	1.27
New England Revolution clean sheet	22.8%	21.1%	18.0%	1.17×	4.75

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New England Revolution to concede in 1st half	47.1%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
New England Revolution clean sheet in 1st half	52.9%	49.3%	—	—	2.03

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New England Revolution to concede in 2nd half	57.0%	58.6%	—	—	1.71
New England Revolution clean sheet in 2nd half	43.0%	41.4%	—	—	2.41

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New England Revolution under 6.5 corners	79.5%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
New England Revolution over 2.5 corners	76.8%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
New England Revolution under 5.5 corners	68.8%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
New England Revolution over 3.5 corners	60.9%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
New England Revolution under 4.5 corners	55.0%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
New England Revolution over 4.5 corners	45.0%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
New England Revolution under 3.5 corners	39.1%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
New England Revolution over 5.5 corners	31.2%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
New England Revolution under 2.5 corners	23.2%	24.0%	—	—	4.16
New England Revolution over 6.5 corners	20.5%	24.0%	—	—	4.16

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New England Revolution under 3.5 goals	97.1%	97.5%	93.9%	1.04×	1.03
New England Revolution under 2.5 goals	89.1%	87.9%	83.3%	1.06×	1.14
New England Revolution under 1.5 goals	68.3%	68.0%	61.3%	1.11×	1.47
New England Revolution over 0.5 goals	68.1%	68.0%	73.2%	0.93×	1.47
New England Revolution under 0.5 goals	31.9%	32.0%	26.8%	1.19×	3.13
New England Revolution over 1.5 goals	31.7%	32.0%	38.7%	0.83×	3.13
New England Revolution over 2.5 goals	10.9%	12.1%	16.7%	0.73×	8.24
New England Revolution over 3.5 goals	2.9%	2.5%	6.1%	0.41×	40.03

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New England Revolution under 1.5 in 1st half	92.2%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
New England Revolution under 0.5 in 1st half	63.3%	64.1%	—	—	1.56
New England Revolution over 0.5 in 1st half	36.7%	35.9%	—	—	2.79
New England Revolution over 1.5 in 1st half	7.8%	5.8%	—	—	17.15

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New England Revolution scores equally in both	42.7%	43.8%	—	—	2.28
New England Revolution scores more in 2nd half	36.0%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
New England Revolution scores more in 1st half	21.3%	22.4%	—	—	4.47

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City (away no bet)	62.3%	61.9%	64.6%	0.96×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	37.7%	38.1%	35.4%	1.07×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New England Revolution even goals	55.1%	56.9%	53.6%	1.06×	1.76
New England Revolution odd goals	44.9%	43.1%	46.4%	0.93×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	86.5%	87.7%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	13.5%	12.3%	—	—	8.11

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	61.8%	58.0%	—	—	1.72
Both halves under 1.5 goals	38.2%	42.0%	—	—	2.38

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	53.7%	51.4%	—	—	1.95
New York City to score 2+ in a row	35.6%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
New England Revolution to score 2+ in a row	23.8%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Either team to score 3+ in a row	18.4%	16.3%	—	—	6.12
New York City to score 3+ in a row	12.4%	12.1%	—	—	8.23
New England Revolution to score 3+ in a row	6.2%	5.6%	—	—	17.83

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City corners (+3.5)	85.1%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
New England Revolution corners (+3.5)	81.4%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
New York City corners (+2.5)	78.0%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
New England Revolution corners (+2.5)	73.4%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
New York City corners (+1.5)	69.0%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
New England Revolution corners (+1.5)	63.6%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
New York City corners (-1.5)	36.4%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
New England Revolution corners (-1.5)	31.0%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
New York City corners (-2.5)	26.6%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
New England Revolution corners (-2.5)	22.0%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
New York City corners (-3.5)	18.6%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
New England Revolution corners (-3.5)	14.9%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	44.9%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
9-11 corners	29.1%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	25.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	81.1%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	74.1%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	65.9%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	65.5%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 9.5 corners	55.7%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	55.1%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	44.9%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	44.3%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 10.5 corners	34.5%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Under 7.5 corners	34.1%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	25.9%	27.4%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	18.9%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.8%	11.4%	10.3%	1.11×	8.74
1-0	10.2%	11.4%	8.4%	1.37×	8.74
2-1	9.1%	7.4%	9.9%	0.75×	13.50
0-0	7.8%	7.4%	5.8%	1.27×	13.50
0-1	7.8%	7.4%	6.5%	1.13×	13.50
1-2	7.0%	7.4%	7.4%	1.00×	13.50
2-0	7.9%	7.4%	6.3%	1.18×	13.50
2-2	5.2%	7.4%	6.1%	1.22×	13.50
0-2	4.8%	1.7%	3.3%	0.52×	58.29
0-3	1.8%	1.7%	1.8%	0.94×	58.31
0-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.8%	2.14×	58.32
1-3	2.7%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.30
1-4	0.8%	1.7%	1.4%	1.25×	58.31
2-3	2.0%	1.7%	2.4%	0.71×	58.31
2-4	0.6%	1.7%	1.7%	1.00×	58.32
3-0	3.9%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	58.30
3-1	4.5%	1.7%	4.9%	0.35×	58.29
3-2	2.6%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.30
3-3	1.0%	1.7%	2.6%	0.65×	58.31
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.7%	2.50×	58.32
4-0	1.4%	1.7%	1.3%	1.36×	58.31
4-1	1.7%	1.7%	2.4%	0.71×	58.31
4-2	0.9%	1.7%	1.6%	1.07×	58.31
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.8%	2.14×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.5%	3.74×	58.32
Any other score	2.4%	1.7%	4.7%	0.37×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City (2nd half DNB)	57.2%	60.5%	—	—	1.65
New England Revolution (2nd half DNB)	42.8%	39.5%	—	—	2.53

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City leading at HT (DNB)	60.4%	65.2%	—	—	1.53
New England Revolution leading at HT (DNB)	39.6%	34.8%	—	—	2.87

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City or New England Revolution (12)	73.1%	72.2%	75.1%	0.96×	1.39
New York City or draw (1X)	71.2%	72.1%	70.1%	1.03×	1.39
New England Revolution or draw (X2)	55.7%	57.0%	54.6%	1.04×	1.76

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City or draw at HT	77.9%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
New England Revolution or draw at HT	66.3%	66.2%	—	—	1.51
New York City or New England Revolution at HT	55.8%	56.9%	—	—	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City or draw (1UP)	71.2%	80.1%	—	—	1.25
New England Revolution or draw (1UP)	55.7%	62.6%	—	—	1.60

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City or draw in 2nd half	72.8%	73.6%	—	—	1.36
New England Revolution or draw in 2nd half	63.7%	64.1%	—	—	1.56
New York City or New England Revolution in 2nd half	63.5%	64.1%	—	—	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	64.0%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Neither half drawn	36.0%	38.3%	—	—	2.61

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City (DNB)	60.6%	62.8%	60.3%	1.04×	1.59
New England Revolution (DNB)	39.4%	37.2%	39.7%	0.94×	2.69

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City to score first	52.0%	53.8%	—	—	1.86
New England Revolution to score first	40.2%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
No goal scored	7.8%	7.5%	—	—	13.30

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	53.1%	51.4%	61.1%	0.84×	1.95
Not both teams to score	46.9%	48.6%	38.9%	1.25×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	40.3%	41.6%	50.9%	0.82×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	38.5%	38.5%	29.9%	1.29×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	12.8%	12.3%	10.3%	1.20×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	8.4%	8.3%	9.2%	0.91×	11.99

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	86.2%	85.6%	79.5%	1.08×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	13.8%	14.4%	20.5%	0.70×	6.93

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	71.5%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	28.5%	26.0%	—	—	3.85

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	59.0%	59.4%	—	—	1.68
Both score 2nd half only	23.6%	20.9%	—	—	4.79
Both score 1st half only	12.5%	10.7%	—	—	9.33
Both score in both halves	4.9%	5.1%	—	—	19.73

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	82.6%	82.5%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	17.4%	17.5%	—	—	5.70

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	52.3%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
A half without a goal	47.7%	46.7%	—	—	2.14

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.3%	47.3%	42.5%	1.11×	2.11
0-1 goals	25.8%	26.6%	20.5%	1.30×	3.76
4-6 goals	25.1%	26.6%	33.1%	0.80×	3.76
7+ goals	1.8%	1.8%	4.1%	0.44×	54.71

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New England Revolution to score exactly 1	36.4%	36.0%	34.6%	1.04×	2.78
New England Revolution to score exactly 0	31.9%	33.7%	26.8%	1.26×	2.96
New England Revolution to score exactly 2	20.8%	22.4%	22.1%	1.01×	4.47
New England Revolution to score 3+	10.9%	12.8%	16.7%	0.77×	7.79

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City to score exactly 1	33.7%	32.6%	31.0%	1.05×	3.07
New York City to score exactly 2	24.9%	23.2%	26.0%	0.89×	4.30
New York City to score exactly 0	22.8%	23.2%	18.0%	1.29×	4.31
New York City to score 3+	18.6%	18.9%	25.2%	0.75×	5.29

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	44.2%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
New York City leading at HT	33.7%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
New England Revolution leading at HT	22.1%	20.0%	—	—	5.00

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City -1: 2	55.7%	56.6%	—	—	1.77
New York City -1: X	22.2%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
New York City -1: 1	22.1%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New England Revolution (0:1)	55.7%	55.7%	54.6%	1.02×	1.79
Draw (0:1)	22.2%	24.3%	22.2%	1.09×	4.12
New York City (0:1)	22.1%	24.3%	23.3%	1.04×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New England Revolution (0:2)	77.9%	79.4%	76.7%	1.03×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	13.5%	10.9%	12.8%	0.85×	9.16
New York City (0:2)	8.6%	7.7%	10.5%	0.73×	12.96

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New England Revolution (0:3)	91.4%	92.6%	89.5%	1.04×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.9%	5.8%	6.6%	0.87×	17.31
New York City (0:3)	2.7%	2.4%	4.0%	0.59×	42.11

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New England Revolution (0:4)	97.3%	98.1%	96.0%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.0%	1.2%	2.1%	0.58×	83.52
New York City (0:4)	0.7%	1.2%	2.1%	0.58×	83.67

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City (1:0)	71.2%	72.5%	70.1%	1.03×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	17.1%	17.0%	16.8%	1.01×	5.89
New England Revolution (1:0)	11.7%	12.8%	13.2%	0.97×	7.84

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City (2:0)	88.3%	88.4%	86.8%	1.02×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	8.1%	6.5%	8.7%	0.74×	15.49
New England Revolution (2:0)	3.6%	2.3%	4.6%	0.50×	43.62

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	46.9%	48.2%	—	—	2.08
1st half highest scoring	26.8%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	26.3%	26.5%	—	—	3.78

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City to concede	68.1%	66.6%	73.2%	0.91×	1.50
New York City clean sheet	31.9%	33.4%	26.8%	1.25×	2.99

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City clean sheet in 1st half	63.3%	64.2%	—	—	1.56
New York City to concede in 1st half	36.7%	35.8%	—	—	2.79

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City clean sheet in 2nd half	50.3%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
New York City to concede in 2nd half	49.7%	46.7%	—	—	2.14

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City over 2.5 corners	79.5%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
New York City under 6.5 corners	76.2%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
New York City over 3.5 corners	64.7%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
New York City under 5.5 corners	64.8%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
New York City under 4.5 corners	50.8%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
New York City over 4.5 corners	49.2%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
New York City under 3.5 corners	35.3%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
New York City over 5.5 corners	35.2%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
New York City over 6.5 corners	23.8%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
New York City under 2.5 corners	20.5%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City under 3.5 goals	93.7%	92.2%	90.6%	1.02×	1.08
New York City under 2.5 goals	81.4%	82.1%	74.8%	1.10×	1.22
New York City over 0.5 goals	77.2%	77.7%	82.0%	0.95×	1.29
New York City under 1.5 goals	56.5%	58.8%	48.9%	1.20×	1.70
New York City over 1.5 goals	43.5%	41.2%	51.1%	0.81×	2.43
New York City under 0.5 goals	22.8%	22.3%	18.0%	1.24×	4.49
New York City over 2.5 goals	18.6%	17.9%	25.2%	0.71×	5.58
New York City over 3.5 goals	6.3%	7.8%	9.4%	0.83×	12.89

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City under 1.5 in 1st half	86.6%	89.7%	—	—	1.11
New York City over 0.5 in 1st half	47.1%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
New York City under 0.5 in 1st half	52.9%	49.2%	—	—	2.03
New York City over 1.5 in 1st half	13.4%	10.3%	—	—	9.75

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City scores more in 2nd half	37.7%	37.7%	—	—	2.66
New York City scores equally in both	36.7%	37.6%	—	—	2.66
New York City scores more in 1st half	25.5%	28.0%	—	—	3.57

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New England Revolution (home no bet)	51.7%	51.5%	54.6%	0.94×	1.94
Draw (home no bet)	48.3%	48.5%	45.4%	1.07×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City even goals	52.6%	50.6%	51.0%	0.99×	1.98
New York City odd goals	47.4%	49.4%	49.0%	1.01×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	33.6%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
HT 1-0	21.2%	24.2%	—	—	4.14
HT 0-1	15.2%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
HT 1-1	9.8%	7.2%	—	—	13.98
HT 2-0	6.8%	7.1%	—	—	14.03
Any other HT score	3.8%	2.3%	—	—	43.43
HT 0-2	3.5%	2.3%	—	—	43.45
HT 2-1	3.1%	2.3%	—	—	43.48
HT 1-2	2.2%	2.3%	—	—	43.54
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.65

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City at HT / New York City at FT	26.3%	26.9%	—	—	3.72
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	16.7%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / New York City at FT	15.7%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
New England Revolution at HT / New England Revolution at FT	15.0%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Draw at HT / New England Revolution at FT	11.7%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
New York City at HT / Draw at FT	5.4%	6.0%	—	—	16.72
New England Revolution at HT / Draw at FT	4.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.74
New England Revolution at HT / New York City at FT	2.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.83
New York City at HT / New England Revolution at FT	2.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.84

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City to score last	52.0%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
New England Revolution to score last	40.2%	39.9%	—	—	2.50
No goal scored	7.8%	7.5%	—	—	13.30

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.2%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
New York City to lead by 1 at any time	59.7%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
New England Revolution to lead by 1 at any time	46.1%	43.9%	—	—	2.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	44.8%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
New York City to lead by 2 at any time	28.2%	25.5%	—	—	3.92
New England Revolution to lead by 2 at any time	16.9%	14.9%	—	—	6.73
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	15.5%	14.8%	—	—	6.74
New York City to lead by 3 at any time	10.6%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
New England Revolution to lead by 3 at any time	4.9%	1.7%	—	—	59.61

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City most corners	47.3%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
New England Revolution most corners	41.5%	43.6%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	11.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.61

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.1%	87.4%	83.2%	1.05×	1.15
1-4 goals	79.6%	78.6%	73.1%	1.08×	1.27
2-6 goals	72.4%	72.4%	75.5%	0.96×	1.38
2-5 goals	69.2%	68.9%	68.5%	1.01×	1.45
1-3 goals	65.3%	68.9%	57.2%	1.21×	1.45
2-4 goals	61.7%	63.4%	58.4%	1.08×	1.58
2-3 goals	47.3%	48.6%	42.5%	1.14×	2.06
3-6 goals	46.9%	48.6%	55.9%	0.87×	2.06
1-2 goals	43.5%	43.6%	34.4%	1.27×	2.30
3-5 goals	43.7%	43.6%	48.9%	0.89×	2.30
3-4 goals	36.1%	39.2%	38.8%	1.01×	2.55
4-6 goals	25.1%	30.3%	33.1%	0.91×	3.31
4-5 goals	21.8%	24.5%	26.1%	0.94×	4.08
5-6 goals	10.8%	14.8%	17.2%	0.86×	6.74
7+ goals	1.8%	2.6%	4.1%	0.62×	39.16

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City never behind	46.1%	56.5%	—	—	1.77
New England Revolution never behind	32.5%	35.6%	—	—	2.81

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.7%	50.8%	50.2%	1.01×	1.97
Even number of goals	51.3%	49.2%	49.8%	0.99×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.8%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	44.2%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.7%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.3%	48.0%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.9%	92.2%	88.9%	1.04×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	92.2%	92.2%	94.2%	0.98×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	87.4%	87.6%	78.8%	1.11×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	74.2%	72.5%	79.5%	0.91×	1.38
Under 3.5 goals	73.1%	72.5%	62.9%	1.15×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	51.3%	52.6%	40.1%	1.31×	1.90
Over 2.5 goals	48.7%	47.4%	59.9%	0.79×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	26.9%	27.5%	37.1%	0.74×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	25.8%	27.5%	20.5%	1.34×	3.63
Over 4.5 goals	12.6%	12.4%	21.2%	0.58×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	7.8%	7.8%	5.8%	1.33×	12.87
Over 5.5 goals	5.1%	7.8%	11.1%	0.70×	12.88

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.2%	97.2%	95.6%	1.02×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	94.5%	92.4%	87.6%	1.05×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	85.3%	86.7%	74.8%	1.16×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	65.6%	67.4%	51.9%	1.30×	1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	65.4%	67.4%	74.5%	0.91×	1.48
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	34.6%	32.6%	25.5%	1.28×	3.07
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	34.4%	32.6%	48.1%	0.68×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	14.7%	13.3%	25.2%	0.53×	7.53
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	5.5%	7.6%	12.4%	0.61×	13.17
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.8%	2.8%	4.4%	0.63×	35.87

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	90.2%	92.5%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	70.0%	71.2%	—	—	1.41
Over 0.5 in 1st half	66.4%	69.0%	—	—	1.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half	33.6%	31.0%	—	—	3.23
Over 1.5 in 1st half	30.0%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
Over 2.5 in 1st half	9.8%	7.5%	—	—	13.41

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	80.1%	82.7%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	78.2%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	54.6%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	45.4%	46.6%	—	—	2.15
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	21.8%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	19.9%	17.3%	—	—	5.78

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New England Revolution not to score in both halves	81.8%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
New York City not to score in both halves	73.2%	73.8%	—	—	1.36
New York City to score in both halves	26.8%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
New England Revolution to score in both halves	18.2%	15.7%	—	—	6.38

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	53.1%	53.9%	61.1%	0.88×	1.86
Only New York City scores	24.1%	22.3%	21.1%	1.06×	4.49
Only New England Revolution scores	15.0%	11.0%	12.3%	0.90×	9.09
Neither team scores	7.8%	7.2%	5.8%	1.23×	13.91

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.5%	24.9%	19.7%	1.26×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	21.8%	22.6%	22.9%	0.99×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	18.0%	17.4%	14.8%	1.18×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	14.3%	12.1%	16.0%	0.75×	8.27
Exactly 0 goals	7.8%	7.6%	5.8%	1.31×	13.08
Exactly 5 goals	7.5%	7.6%	10.2%	0.75×	13.08
6 or more goals	5.1%	7.6%	11.1%	0.69×	13.09

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.5%	37.1%	—	—	2.70
No goals in 1st half	33.6%	35.9%	—	—	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	20.1%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
3+ goals in 1st half	9.8%	7.5%	—	—	13.41

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	45.4%	44.6%	—	—	2.24
1 goal in 2nd half	32.8%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
No goals in 2nd half	21.8%	23.0%	—	—	4.35

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New England Revolution not to win both halves	93.9%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
New York City not to win both halves	87.7%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
New York City to win both halves	12.3%	12.1%	—	—	8.28
New England Revolution to win both halves	6.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.69

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New York City to win either half	57.7%	59.5%	—	—	1.68
New England Revolution to win neither half	56.8%	59.5%	—	—	1.68
New England Revolution to win either half	43.2%	40.5%	—	—	2.47
New York City to win neither half	42.3%	40.5%	—	—	2.47

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
New England Revolution not to win to nil	85.0%	88.1%	87.7%	1.00×	1.14
New York City not to win to nil	75.9%	78.1%	78.9%	0.99×	1.28
New York City to win to nil	24.1%	21.9%	21.1%	1.04×	4.56
New England Revolution to win to nil	15.0%	11.9%	12.3%	0.97×	8.43

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	26.9%	27.9%	24.9%	1.12×	3.59
New York City by 1	22.2%	24.2%	22.2%	1.09×	4.14
New England Revolution by 1	17.1%	16.9%	16.8%	1.01×	5.91
New York City by 2	13.5%	11.8%	12.8%	0.92×	8.49
New York City by 3+	8.6%	7.2%	10.5%	0.69×	13.80
New England Revolution by 2	8.1%	7.2%	8.7%	0.83×	13.81
New England Revolution by 3+	3.6%	2.7%	4.6%	0.60×	36.64

Shot-level data has not been ingested for this match yet. Run python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.