Newcastle Jets v Macarthur FC — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 24 October 2026 · AUS-A-League · 2627

AUS-A-League results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Newcastle Jets

04:00 UTC

Macarthur FC

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 21 Oct, 11:05 · 65h before kick-off

Newcastle Jets win

55.6%

model 56.4%

Draw

22.2%

model 20.8%

Macarthur FC win

22.2%

model 22.8%

562222

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (346 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-1 9.5%
1-1 9.0%
2-0 7.3%
3-1 6.8%
1-0 6.6%

Goals

Over 2.5	67.2%	Under 2.5	32.8%
BTTS yes	64.6%	BTTS no	35.4%
Newcastle Jets 1+	88.3%	Newcastle Jets 2+	63.3%
Macarthur FC 1+	73.0%	Macarthur FC 2+	37.7%

Expected goals 2.15 – 1.31. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

38/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

95%

★ Best pick

Newcastle Jets (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 38%

57.0% fair odds 1.75

strong signal · 1154 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT

83.8% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 387 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Newcastle Jets carry the stronger rating, 1599 Elo against 1463.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Newcastle Jets have an estimated 55.6% win probability, against 22.2% for Macarthur FC and 22.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.15 for Newcastle Jets and 1.31 for Macarthur FC.

Why Newcastle Jets

Newcastle Jets carry the stronger rating, 1599 Elo against 1463.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.2%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Macarthur FC can win

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Newcastle Jets, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Macarthur FC, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Newcastle Jets: 54% possession, 15.2 shots a match, 15.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Macarthur FC: 45% possession, 16.0 shots a match, 15.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Newcastle Jets's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-21 11:56 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-21 15:05 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Newcastle Jets are the model's most likely outcome at 55.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 9.5%. Confidence 38/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	562123	2.15–1.31	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	621820	2.56–1.43	2-1 9%	76%	70%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle Jets to win	61.8%	58.2%	37.9%	1.54×	1.72
Macarthur FC to win	20.0%	19.4%	35.4%	0.55×	5.15
Draw	18.2%	19.4%	27.1%	0.71×	5.16

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle Jets & both teams score	39.9%	33.4%	20.0%	1.67×	3.00
Newcastle Jets & not both score	21.9%	21.8%	18.2%	1.20×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	16.3%	18.0%	22.5%	0.80×	5.57
Macarthur FC & both teams score	14.2%	13.3%	19.3%	0.69×	7.53
Macarthur FC & not both score	5.8%	8.3%	16.4%	0.51×	12.02
Draw & not both score	1.9%	4.8%	5.0%	0.97×	20.64

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle Jets & over 1.5	57.2%	54.9%	29.6%	1.85×	1.82
Newcastle Jets & over 2.5	51.1%	48.8%	25.7%	1.90×	2.05
Newcastle Jets & over 3.5	37.3%	34.9%	16.1%	2.17×	2.87
Newcastle Jets & under 3.5	24.5%	21.6%	22.1%	0.98×	4.63
Macarthur FC & over 1.5	17.4%	18.0%	27.5%	0.65×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	16.3%	18.0%	22.5%	0.80×	5.56
Macarthur FC & over 2.5	15.6%	18.0%	22.1%	0.81×	5.56
Newcastle Jets & under 2.5	10.7%	12.8%	12.5%	1.03×	7.79
Macarthur FC & under 3.5	10.2%	12.8%	23.6%	0.54×	7.79
Draw & over 2.5	9.4%	7.9%	11.1%	0.72×	12.63
Draw & under 2.5	8.8%	7.9%	16.4%	0.48×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	9.4%	7.9%	11.1%	0.72×	12.63
Draw & under 3.5	8.8%	7.9%	16.4%	0.48×	12.63
Macarthur FC & over 3.5	9.8%	7.9%	12.1%	0.65×	12.63
Newcastle Jets & under 1.5	4.6%	4.8%	8.6%	0.56×	20.81
Macarthur FC & under 2.5	4.4%	4.8%	13.6%	0.35×	20.81
Macarthur FC & under 1.5	2.5%	4.8%	8.2%	0.58×	20.82
Draw & under 1.5	1.9%	4.8%	5.0%	0.96×	20.83

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle Jets (1UP)	77.1%	78.8%	—	—	1.27
Macarthur FC (1UP)	43.1%	38.5%	—	—	2.59

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle Jets (2UP)	61.8%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Macarthur FC (2UP)	20.0%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle Jets to win 2nd half	51.2%	51.3%	—	—	1.95
2nd half drawn	26.7%	25.7%	—	—	3.89
Macarthur FC to win 2nd half	22.1%	24.2%	—	—	4.13

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macarthur FC under 1.5 in 2nd half	78.7%	79.1%	—	—	1.26
Macarthur FC over 0.5 in 2nd half	57.7%	54.6%	—	—	1.83
Macarthur FC under 0.5 in 2nd half	42.3%	45.4%	—	—	2.20
Macarthur FC over 1.5 in 2nd half	21.3%	20.9%	—	—	4.79

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle Jets over 0.5 in 2nd half	76.8%	75.4%	—	—	1.33
Newcastle Jets under 1.5 in 2nd half	57.1%	58.0%	—	—	1.73
Newcastle Jets over 1.5 in 2nd half	42.9%	42.0%	—	—	2.38
Newcastle Jets under 0.5 in 2nd half	23.2%	24.6%	—	—	4.07

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle Jets (+0.5)	80.0%	82.5%	64.6%	1.28×	1.21
Macarthur FC (+2.5)	76.6%	78.5%	88.2%	0.89×	1.27
Newcastle Jets (-0.5)	61.8%	62.9%	37.9%	1.66×	1.59
Macarthur FC (+1.5)	58.7%	57.0%	80.4%	0.71×	1.75
Newcastle Jets (-1.5)	41.3%	43.0%	19.6%	2.19×	2.33
Macarthur FC (+0.5)	38.2%	37.1%	62.1%	0.60×	2.70
Newcastle Jets (-2.5)	23.4%	21.5%	11.8%	1.83×	4.65
Macarthur FC (-0.5)	20.0%	17.5%	35.4%	0.49×	5.72

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macarthur FC to concede	92.3%	91.9%	78.9%	1.16×	1.09
Macarthur FC clean sheet	7.7%	8.1%	21.1%	0.39×	12.28

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macarthur FC to concede in 1st half	66.8%	70.4%	—	—	1.42
Macarthur FC clean sheet in 1st half	33.2%	29.6%	—	—	3.38

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macarthur FC to concede in 2nd half	76.8%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Macarthur FC clean sheet in 2nd half	23.2%	24.2%	—	—	4.13

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macarthur FC over 2.5 corners	86.4%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Macarthur FC over 3.5 corners	73.6%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Macarthur FC under 6.5 corners	69.8%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Macarthur FC over 4.5 corners	58.5%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Macarthur FC under 5.5 corners	56.6%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Macarthur FC over 5.5 corners	43.4%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Macarthur FC under 4.5 corners	41.5%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Macarthur FC over 6.5 corners	30.2%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Macarthur FC under 3.5 corners	26.4%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Macarthur FC under 2.5 corners	13.6%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macarthur FC under 3.5 goals	94.3%	92.4%	95.0%	0.97×	1.08
Macarthur FC under 2.5 goals	82.6%	81.5%	85.0%	0.96×	1.23
Macarthur FC over 0.5 goals	76.1%	76.2%	77.1%	0.99×	1.31
Macarthur FC under 1.5 goals	58.1%	59.4%	56.1%	1.06×	1.68
Macarthur FC over 1.5 goals	41.9%	40.6%	43.9%	0.92×	2.46
Macarthur FC under 0.5 goals	23.9%	23.8%	22.9%	1.04×	4.21
Macarthur FC over 2.5 goals	17.5%	18.5%	15.0%	1.24×	5.39
Macarthur FC over 3.5 goals	5.7%	7.7%	5.0%	1.53×	13.07

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macarthur FC under 1.5 in 1st half	88.7%	89.4%	—	—	1.12
Macarthur FC under 0.5 in 1st half	56.4%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Macarthur FC over 0.5 in 1st half	43.6%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Macarthur FC over 1.5 in 1st half	11.3%	10.6%	—	—	9.41

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macarthur FC scores more in 2nd half	39.9%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Macarthur FC scores equally in both	37.2%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Macarthur FC scores more in 1st half	22.9%	22.0%	—	—	4.55

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle Jets (away no bet)	77.3%	73.6%	58.2%	1.26×	1.36
Draw (away no bet)	22.7%	26.4%	41.8%	0.63×	3.79

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macarthur FC even goals	52.8%	52.6%	55.0%	0.96×	1.90
Macarthur FC odd goals	47.2%	47.4%	45.0%	1.05×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	66.4%	68.2%	—	—	1.47
Both halves over 1.5 goals	33.6%	31.8%	—	—	3.15

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	83.7%	78.9%	—	—	1.27
Both halves under 1.5 goals	16.3%	21.1%	—	—	4.73

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	76.3%	75.5%	—	—	1.33
Newcastle Jets to score 2+ in a row	62.2%	60.1%	—	—	1.66
Either team to score 3+ in a row	38.5%	36.7%	—	—	2.73
Newcastle Jets to score 3+ in a row	32.1%	29.2%	—	—	3.43
Macarthur FC to score 2+ in a row	27.7%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Macarthur FC to score 3+ in a row	7.5%	5.6%	—	—	17.95

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle Jets corners (+3.5)	85.8%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Newcastle Jets corners (+2.5)	79.1%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Macarthur FC corners (+3.5)	77.7%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Newcastle Jets corners (+1.5)	70.9%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Macarthur FC corners (+2.5)	69.3%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Macarthur FC corners (+1.5)	59.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Newcastle Jets corners (-1.5)	40.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Newcastle Jets corners (-2.5)	30.7%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Macarthur FC corners (-1.5)	29.1%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Newcastle Jets corners (-3.5)	22.3%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Macarthur FC corners (-2.5)	20.9%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Macarthur FC corners (-3.5)	14.2%	15.5%	—	—	6.44

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	44.9%	38.4%	—	—	2.61
9-11 corners	30.1%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
0-8 corners	25.0%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	83.3%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Over 8.5 corners	75.0%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 9.5 corners	65.4%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 12.5 corners	64.7%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 10.5 corners	55.1%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 11.5 corners	55.1%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 10.5 corners	44.9%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 11.5 corners	44.9%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 12.5 corners	35.3%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 9.5 corners	34.6%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 8.5 corners	25.0%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	16.7%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	13.0%	11.5%	4.6%	2.47×	8.72
2-1	8.7%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.50
1-1	6.9%	7.4%	11.8%	0.63×	13.51
3-1	7.4%	7.4%	3.2%	2.30×	13.50
2-0	6.0%	7.4%	4.3%	1.73×	13.51
2-2	6.2%	7.4%	10.0%	0.74×	13.51
3-0	5.2%	7.4%	3.9%	1.88×	13.51
3-2	5.3%	7.4%	4.3%	1.73×	13.51
1-2	4.8%	1.7%	8.9%	0.19×	58.29
4-1	4.7%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.29
0-0	1.9%	1.7%	5.0%	0.34×	58.31
0-1	2.5%	1.7%	8.2%	0.21×	58.30
0-2	1.9%	1.7%	5.7%	0.30×	58.31
0-3	0.9%	1.7%	1.8%	0.96×	58.31
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.4%	1.20×	58.32
1-0	4.6%	1.7%	8.6%	0.20×	58.29
1-3	2.3%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.31
1-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.7%	2.40×	58.31
2-3	3.0%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.30
2-4	1.1%	1.7%	0.7%	2.40×	58.31
3-3	2.5%	1.7%	1.1%	1.60×	58.30
3-4	0.9%	1.7%	1.1%	1.60×	58.31
4-0	3.3%	1.7%	2.1%	0.80×	58.30
4-2	3.4%	1.7%	1.1%	1.60×	58.30
4-3	1.6%	1.7%	0.4%	4.80×	58.31
4-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.7%	2.40×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle Jets (2nd half DNB)	69.8%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Macarthur FC (2nd half DNB)	30.2%	32.3%	—	—	3.09

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle Jets leading at HT (DNB)	71.7%	73.8%	—	—	1.36
Macarthur FC leading at HT (DNB)	28.3%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle Jets or Macarthur FC (12)	81.8%	80.6%	72.9%	1.11×	1.24
Newcastle Jets or draw (1X)	80.0%	80.6%	64.6%	1.25×	1.24
Macarthur FC or draw (X2)	38.2%	41.8%	62.1%	0.67×	2.39

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle Jets or draw at HT	80.9%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Newcastle Jets or Macarthur FC at HT	67.4%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Macarthur FC or draw at HT	51.7%	47.8%	—	—	2.09

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle Jets or draw (1UP)	80.0%	88.3%	—	—	1.13
Macarthur FC or draw (1UP)	43.1%	52.6%	—	—	1.90

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle Jets or draw in 2nd half	77.9%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Newcastle Jets or Macarthur FC in 2nd half	73.3%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Macarthur FC or draw in 2nd half	48.8%	48.7%	—	—	2.06

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half drawn	49.5%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
A half drawn	50.5%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle Jets (DNB)	75.6%	74.7%	51.7%	1.44×	1.34
Macarthur FC (DNB)	24.4%	25.3%	48.3%	0.52×	3.95

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle Jets to score first	62.9%	64.6%	—	—	1.55
Macarthur FC to score first	35.2%	32.7%	—	—	3.06
No goal scored	1.9%	4.2%	—	—	23.63

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	70.4%	62.4%	61.1%	1.02×	1.60
Not both teams to score	29.6%	37.6%	38.9%	0.97×	2.66

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	63.5%	50.5%	49.6%	1.02×	1.98
Not both score & under 2.5	17.0%	21.5%	30.4%	0.71×	4.64
Not both score & over 2.5	12.6%	12.4%	8.9%	1.38×	8.09
Both score & under 2.5	6.9%	8.3%	11.8%	0.70×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	69.6%	71.7%	77.9%	0.92×	1.40
Both teams to score 2+	30.4%	28.3%	22.1%	1.28×	3.54

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	55.7%	64.6%	—	—	1.55
Both teams to score in 2nd half	44.3%	35.4%	—	—	2.82

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	39.4%	45.0%	—	—	2.22
Both score 2nd half only	31.4%	27.0%	—	—	3.70
Both score 1st half only	16.2%	15.0%	—	—	6.68
Both score in both halves	12.9%	10.7%	—	—	9.35

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	70.9%	79.4%	—	—	1.26
Both teams to score by HT	29.1%	20.6%	—	—	4.86

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	73.3%	74.5%	—	—	1.34
A half without a goal	26.7%	25.5%	—	—	3.92

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	45.6%	47.2%	35.0%	1.35×	2.12
2-3 goals	34.4%	30.8%	40.7%	0.76×	3.25
7+ goals	10.9%	16.9%	3.9%	4.30×	5.92
0-1 goals	9.1%	7.6%	21.1%	0.36×	13.08

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macarthur FC to score exactly 1	34.2%	33.8%	33.6%	1.01×	2.96
Macarthur FC to score exactly 2	24.5%	22.3%	29.3%	0.76×	4.48
Macarthur FC to score exactly 0	23.9%	22.3%	22.9%	0.98×	4.48
Macarthur FC to score 3+	17.5%	19.6%	15.0%	1.30×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle Jets to score 3+	47.2%	37.4%	22.1%	1.69×	2.67
Newcastle Jets to score exactly 2	25.3%	26.5%	23.9%	1.11×	3.77
Newcastle Jets to score exactly 1	19.8%	18.8%	33.6%	0.56×	5.33
Newcastle Jets to score exactly 0	7.7%	10.3%	21.1%	0.49×	9.71

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle Jets leading at HT	48.3%	52.2%	—	—	1.92
Draw at HT	32.6%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Macarthur FC leading at HT	19.1%	15.8%	—	—	6.32

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle Jets -1: 1	41.3%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Newcastle Jets -1: 2	38.2%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Newcastle Jets -1: X	20.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle Jets (0:1)	41.3%	42.6%	19.6%	2.17×	2.35
Macarthur FC (0:1)	38.2%	37.3%	62.1%	0.60×	2.68
Draw (0:1)	20.6%	24.2%	18.6%	1.30×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macarthur FC (0:2)	58.7%	63.1%	80.4%	0.78×	1.59
Newcastle Jets (0:2)	23.4%	20.3%	11.8%	1.73×	4.92
Draw (0:2)	17.8%	15.3%	8.2%	1.86×	6.54

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macarthur FC (0:3)	76.6%	80.4%	88.2%	0.91×	1.24
Draw (0:3)	12.1%	9.9%	8.2%	1.21×	10.06
Newcastle Jets (0:3)	11.4%	9.9%	3.9%	2.53×	10.07

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macarthur FC (0:4)	88.6%	92.0%	96.1%	0.96×	1.09
Draw (0:4)	6.6%	4.6%	3.2%	1.43×	21.69
Newcastle Jets (0:4)	4.8%	1.2%	1.1%	1.14×	81.57

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle Jets (1:0)	80.0%	81.3%	64.6%	1.26×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	11.5%	12.7%	21.4%	0.59×	7.88
Macarthur FC (1:0)	8.5%	6.9%	14.3%	0.48×	14.48

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle Jets (2:0)	91.5%	94.0%	85.7%	1.10×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	5.6%	6.4%	10.4%	0.61×	15.71
Macarthur FC (2:0)	3.0%	2.3%	4.3%	0.53×	43.65

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	52.3%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
1st half highest scoring	27.8%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	19.9%	20.0%	—	—	5.00

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle Jets to concede	76.1%	76.0%	77.1%	0.99×	1.32
Newcastle Jets clean sheet	23.9%	24.0%	22.9%	1.05×	4.18

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle Jets clean sheet in 1st half	56.4%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Newcastle Jets to concede in 1st half	43.6%	38.1%	—	—	2.63

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle Jets to concede in 2nd half	57.7%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Newcastle Jets clean sheet in 2nd half	42.3%	45.1%	—	—	2.22

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle Jets over 2.5 corners	90.1%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Newcastle Jets over 3.5 corners	79.7%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Newcastle Jets over 4.5 corners	66.4%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Newcastle Jets under 6.5 corners	61.6%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Newcastle Jets over 5.5 corners	52.1%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Newcastle Jets under 5.5 corners	47.9%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Newcastle Jets over 6.5 corners	38.4%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Newcastle Jets under 4.5 corners	33.6%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Newcastle Jets under 3.5 corners	20.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Newcastle Jets under 2.5 corners	9.9%	10.8%	—	—	9.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle Jets over 0.5 goals	92.3%	92.2%	78.9%	1.17×	1.08
Newcastle Jets under 3.5 goals	74.5%	74.3%	89.6%	0.83×	1.35
Newcastle Jets over 1.5 goals	72.5%	74.2%	45.7%	1.62×	1.35
Newcastle Jets under 2.5 goals	52.8%	53.2%	77.9%	0.68×	1.88
Newcastle Jets over 2.5 goals	47.2%	46.8%	22.1%	2.11×	2.14
Newcastle Jets under 1.5 goals	27.5%	25.8%	54.3%	0.47×	3.88
Newcastle Jets over 3.5 goals	25.5%	25.7%	10.4%	2.49×	3.88
Newcastle Jets under 0.5 goals	7.7%	7.8%	21.1%	0.37×	12.88

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle Jets under 1.5 in 1st half	69.8%	69.1%	—	—	1.45
Newcastle Jets over 0.5 in 1st half	66.8%	68.8%	—	—	1.45
Newcastle Jets under 0.5 in 1st half	33.2%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
Newcastle Jets over 1.5 in 1st half	30.2%	30.9%	—	—	3.23

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle Jets scores more in 2nd half	45.3%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Newcastle Jets scores more in 1st half	28.5%	27.8%	—	—	3.59
Newcastle Jets scores equally in both	26.1%	27.8%	—	—	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macarthur FC (home no bet)	52.3%	51.4%	56.6%	0.91×	1.95
Draw (home no bet)	47.7%	48.6%	43.4%	1.12×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle Jets even goals	50.3%	50.7%	53.2%	0.95×	1.97
Newcastle Jets odd goals	49.7%	49.3%	46.8%	1.05×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 1-0	20.6%	24.4%	—	—	4.10
HT 0-0	18.7%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
HT 1-1	11.8%	11.0%	—	—	9.08
Any other HT score	11.8%	11.0%	—	—	9.08
HT 2-0	11.4%	11.0%	—	—	9.08
HT 0-1	10.7%	11.0%	—	—	9.09
HT 2-1	6.5%	6.9%	—	—	14.50
HT 1-2	3.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.06
HT 0-2	3.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.08
HT 2-2	1.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.16

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle Jets at HT / Newcastle Jets at FT	41.1%	41.0%	—	—	2.44
Draw at HT / Newcastle Jets at FT	16.6%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Macarthur FC at HT / Macarthur FC at FT	10.6%	12.6%	—	—	7.92
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	8.8%	6.0%	—	—	16.58
Draw at HT / Macarthur FC at FT	7.2%	6.0%	—	—	16.63
Newcastle Jets at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	6.0%	—	—	16.69
Macarthur FC at HT / Draw at FT	4.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.61
Macarthur FC at HT / Newcastle Jets at FT	4.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.61
Newcastle Jets at HT / Macarthur FC at FT	2.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.68

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle Jets to score last	62.9%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Macarthur FC to score last	35.2%	38.5%	—	—	2.60
No goal scored	1.9%	4.2%	—	—	23.63

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	98.1%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Newcastle Jets to lead by 1 at any time	77.1%	78.3%	—	—	1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	65.8%	69.3%	—	—	1.44
Newcastle Jets to lead by 2 at any time	50.8%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Macarthur FC to lead by 1 at any time	43.1%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	33.3%	29.9%	—	—	3.35
Newcastle Jets to lead by 3 at any time	28.4%	25.5%	—	—	3.92
Macarthur FC to lead by 2 at any time	15.9%	14.9%	—	—	6.70
Macarthur FC to lead by 3 at any time	5.0%	1.7%	—	—	59.96

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle Jets most corners	50.8%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Macarthur FC most corners	38.8%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	10.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-6 goals	80.0%	78.7%	75.4%	1.04×	1.27
1-5 goals	76.7%	78.7%	88.2%	0.89×	1.27
2-5 goals	69.5%	68.8%	72.1%	0.95×	1.45
3-6 goals	65.2%	68.8%	54.6%	1.26×	1.45
1-4 goals	61.1%	63.3%	76.4%	0.83×	1.58
3-5 goals	54.8%	53.2%	51.4%	1.03×	1.88
2-4 goals	53.9%	53.2%	60.4%	0.88×	1.88
4-6 goals	45.6%	48.5%	35.0%	1.38×	2.06
1-3 goals	41.5%	43.6%	56.8%	0.77×	2.30
3-4 goals	39.1%	39.2%	39.6%	0.99×	2.55
4-5 goals	35.2%	39.2%	31.8%	1.23×	2.55
2-3 goals	34.4%	35.2%	40.7%	0.87×	2.84
5-6 goals	26.0%	30.2%	15.4%	1.97×	3.31
1-2 goals	22.0%	24.5%	37.1%	0.66×	4.08
7+ goals	10.9%	14.8%	3.9%	3.77×	6.76

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle Jets never behind	54.9%	62.6%	—	—	1.60
Macarthur FC never behind	20.9%	24.5%	—	—	4.09

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.8%	50.9%	50.0%	1.02×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.1%	50.0%	0.98×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	51.8%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	48.2%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.5%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.5%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	98.1%	95.4%	95.0%	1.00×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	90.9%	92.3%	78.9%	1.17×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	78.7%	77.3%	92.9%	0.83×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	76.1%	77.3%	58.2%	1.33×	1.29
Under 4.5 goals	63.0%	61.7%	81.1%	0.76×	1.62
Over 3.5 goals	56.5%	58.6%	38.6%	1.52×	1.71
Under 3.5 goals	43.5%	41.4%	61.4%	0.67×	2.42
Over 4.5 goals	37.0%	38.3%	18.9%	2.02×	2.61
Under 2.5 goals	23.9%	22.7%	41.8%	0.54×	4.41
Over 5.5 goals	21.3%	22.7%	7.1%	3.18×	4.41
Under 1.5 goals	9.1%	7.7%	21.1%	0.37×	12.93
Under 0.5 goals	1.9%	4.6%	5.0%	0.91×	21.89

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	89.3%	86.7%	73.4%	1.18×	1.15
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	87.8%	86.7%	95.9%	0.90×	1.15
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	74.7%	72.4%	91.9%	0.79×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	70.3%	72.4%	48.0%	1.51×	1.38
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	54.0%	51.9%	76.4%	0.68×	1.93
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	46.0%	48.1%	23.6%	2.04×	2.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	29.7%	27.6%	52.0%	0.53×	3.62
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	25.3%	27.6%	8.1%	3.41×	3.63
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	12.2%	13.3%	4.1%	3.27×	7.54
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	10.7%	13.3%	26.6%	0.50×	7.54

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half	81.3%	85.7%	—	—	1.17
Under 2.5 in 1st half	76.4%	78.1%	—	—	1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half	50.1%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Over 1.5 in 1st half	49.9%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
Over 2.5 in 1st half	23.6%	21.9%	—	—	4.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half	18.7%	14.3%	—	—	7.01

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	90.1%	89.4%	—	—	1.12
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	67.4%	68.7%	—	—	1.46
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	59.1%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	40.9%	45.0%	—	—	2.22
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	32.6%	31.3%	—	—	3.19
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	9.9%	10.6%	—	—	9.40

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macarthur FC not to score in both halves	74.8%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
Newcastle Jets to score in both halves	51.3%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Newcastle Jets not to score in both halves	48.7%	44.8%	—	—	2.23
Macarthur FC to score in both halves	25.2%	26.0%	—	—	3.85

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	70.4%	65.9%	61.1%	1.08×	1.52
Only Newcastle Jets scores	21.9%	22.3%	18.2%	1.22×	4.49
Only Macarthur FC scores	5.8%	7.1%	16.4%	0.43×	14.05
Neither team scores	1.9%	4.6%	5.0%	0.92×	21.76

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
6 or more goals	21.3%	22.6%	7.1%	3.16×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	19.6%	17.5%	20.0%	0.87×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	19.6%	17.5%	20.0%	0.87×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	15.6%	17.5%	12.1%	1.44×	5.73
Exactly 2 goals	14.8%	12.1%	21.1%	0.58×	8.24
Exactly 1 goals	7.2%	7.6%	16.4%	0.46×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	1.9%	4.5%	5.0%	0.89×	22.41

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	31.3%	35.8%	—	—	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	26.3%	28.2%	—	—	3.54
3+ goals in 1st half	23.6%	21.5%	—	—	4.64
No goals in 1st half	18.7%	15.7%	—	—	6.38

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	67.4%	61.6%	—	—	1.62
1 goal in 2nd half	22.7%	22.8%	—	—	4.39
No goals in 2nd half	9.9%	10.8%	—	—	9.25

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macarthur FC not to win both halves	95.8%	97.1%	—	—	1.03
Newcastle Jets not to win both halves	75.2%	75.2%	—	—	1.33
Newcastle Jets to win both halves	24.8%	24.8%	—	—	4.04
Macarthur FC to win both halves	4.2%	2.9%	—	—	35.05

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle Jets to win either half	74.8%	73.2%	—	—	1.37
Macarthur FC to win neither half	63.0%	65.1%	—	—	1.54
Macarthur FC to win either half	37.0%	34.9%	—	—	2.87
Newcastle Jets to win neither half	25.2%	26.8%	—	—	3.73

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Macarthur FC not to win to nil	94.2%	92.1%	83.6%	1.10×	1.09
Newcastle Jets not to win to nil	78.1%	78.1%	81.8%	0.96×	1.28
Newcastle Jets to win to nil	21.9%	21.9%	18.2%	1.20×	4.57
Macarthur FC to win to nil	5.8%	7.9%	16.4%	0.48×	12.69

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle Jets by 3+	23.4%	24.1%	11.8%	2.05×	4.15
Newcastle Jets by 1	20.6%	24.1%	18.6%	1.30×	4.15
Draw	18.2%	17.1%	27.1%	0.63×	5.87
Newcastle Jets by 2	17.8%	17.1%	8.2%	2.08×	5.87
Macarthur FC by 1	11.5%	11.8%	21.4%	0.55×	8.51
Macarthur FC by 2	5.6%	7.2%	10.4%	0.69×	13.92
Macarthur FC by 3+	3.0%	2.7%	4.3%	0.63×	36.81