Newcastle United v Arsenal — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 2 November 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 10
On target
4 – 0
Shots in box
7 – 7
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.03 – 0.23
Goals − xG
+0.14 – -0.92
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Newcastle United win
27.3%
Draw
22.4%
Arsenal win
50.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Newcastle United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLWDWLDWD last 10
scored 15
from 14.3 xG
conceded 14
from 19.1 xG
Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 16
from 22.9 xG
conceded 6
from 9.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.35–1.89 | 1-1 10% | 63% | 63% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Newcastle United 0.86 xGArsenal 0.92 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Newcastle United attacking right
Arsenal attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Declan Rice |
| 4' |
 Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Joe Willock |
| 5' |
Arsenal |
Mikel Merino | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 10' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jurriën Timber |
| 11' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.39 | Open Play | — | Goal | Anthony Gordon |
| 17' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kai Havertz |
| 21' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Valentino Livramento |
| 24' |
Newcastle United |
Fabian Schär | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 26' |
Arsenal |
Jurriën Timber | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gabriel |
| 26' |
Arsenal |
Mikel Merino | 0.14 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Thomas Partey |
| 45' |
Newcastle United |
Joe Willock | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Anthony Gordon |
| 52' |
Newcastle United |
Sean Longstaff | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Valentino Livramento |
| 57' |
Newcastle United |
Joe Willock | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Joelinton |
| 62' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 63' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Thomas Partey |
| 67' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Declan Rice |
| 86' |
Newcastle United |
Joelinton | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Harvey Barnes |
| 90' |
Arsenal |
Ethan Nwaneri | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ben White |
| 92' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.44 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Bukayo Saka |
Players
Arsenal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Declan Rice MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.51 | 0.07 | 0.63 |
| Bukayo Saka MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.44 | 0.55 |
| William Saliba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Kai Havertz FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| Gabriel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.58 |
| David Raya GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Thomas Partey DR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| Leandro Trossard FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jurriën Timber DL | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.18 |
| Mikel Merino MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Gabriel Martinelli ML | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Ethan Nwaneri Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Oleksandr Zinchenko Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Ben White Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.47 |
| Gabriel Jesus Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Jorginho Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Newcastle United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Isak FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Joelinton FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.34 |
| Bruno Guimarães MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Sean Longstaff MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Fabian Schär DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Nick Pope GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Lewis Hall DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Valentino Livramento DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.31 |
| Dan Burn DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Anthony Gordon FWR | 88 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 0.63 |
| Joe Willock MC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.26 |
| Sandro Tonali Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Harvey Barnes Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Lloyd Kelly Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |