Newcastle United v Aston Villa — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 17 October 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627

Premier League xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:09 UTC

Newcastle United

16:30 UTC

Aston Villa

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 945h before kick-off

Newcastle United win

49.7%

model 47.1%

Draw

22.4%

model 23.4%

Aston Villa win

27.9%

model 29.5%

502228

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (476 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.7%
2-1 9.3%
1-0 8.0%
1-2 7.1%
2-0 7.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	59.6%	Under 2.5	40.4%
BTTS yes	61.0%	BTTS no	39.0%
Newcastle United 1+	82.6%	Newcastle United 2+	52.2%
Aston Villa 1+	73.8%	Aston Villa 2+	38.7%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.34. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

93/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Odd number of goals

Odd/Even · usually 49%

50.1% fair odds 1.99

moderate signal · 2688 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Not both teams to score 2+

GG/NG 2+ · usually 82%

83.9% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 222 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Newcastle United have created 1.43 xG a match over their last five while Aston Villa have allowed 1.57.
At home Newcastle United average 1.85 xG a match.
Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Aston Villa were missing 1.03 expected goal involvements a match against 0.71.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Newcastle United have an estimated 49.7% win probability, against 27.9% for Aston Villa and 22.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.75 for Newcastle United and 1.34 for Aston Villa.

Why Newcastle United

Newcastle United have created 1.43 xG a match over their last five while Aston Villa have allowed 1.57. At home Newcastle United average 1.85 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Aston Villa were missing 1.03 expected goal involvements a match against 0.71.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.4%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Aston Villa can win

Aston Villa have created 1.57 xG a match over their last five while Newcastle United have allowed 1.91. Away from home Aston Villa average 1.40 xG a match.

Key players

Newcastle United's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Bruno Guimarães (0.32), Nick Woltemade (0.30), Harvey Barnes (0.23). Aston Villa's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Ollie Watkins (0.57), Morgan Rogers (0.36), Nicolas Jackson (0.34).

Availability

2 of Newcastle United's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Newcastle United's last eleven are new to the club this window. 2 of Aston Villa's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Newcastle United: 50% possession, 11.0 shots a match, 19.4 faced, 0.20 xG a match from set pieces. Aston Villa: 46% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 14.2 faced, 0.66 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Newcastle United are the model's most likely outcome at 49.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.7%. Confidence 93/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Newcastle United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LLLWDWLDWD last 10 scored 15 from 14.3 xG conceded 14 from 19.1 xG

Aston Villa have scored 14 from 15.7 expected and conceded 17 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

DWLLDWWLLD last 10 scored 14 from 15.7 xG conceded 17 from 15.7 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	472329	1.75–1.34	0%	0%	0%
dc-goals	482626	1.75–1.24	1-1 12%	57%	60%
dc-xg	492329	1.85–1.37	1-1 10%	62%	63%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United to win	47.1%	49.2%	43.1%	1.14×	2.03
Aston Villa to win	29.5%	27.6%	32.3%	0.86×	3.62
Draw	23.4%	22.2%	24.7%	0.90×	4.51

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United & both teams score	25.5%	26.3%	22.9%	1.15×	3.80
Newcastle United & not both score	21.7%	22.6%	20.3%	1.11×	4.43
Draw & both teams score	18.8%	17.8%	20.0%	0.89×	5.63
Aston Villa & both teams score	16.6%	17.7%	15.5%	1.14×	5.64
Aston Villa & not both score	12.8%	12.2%	16.8%	0.72×	8.22
Draw & not both score	4.6%	3.7%	4.9%	0.76×	26.99

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United & over 1.5	39.2%	37.6%	36.7%	1.02×	2.66
Newcastle United & over 2.5	32.2%	33.1%	30.2%	1.10×	3.02
Newcastle United & under 3.5	28.4%	25.5%	26.8%	0.95×	3.92
Aston Villa & over 1.5	23.4%	21.5%	25.4%	0.85×	4.65
Aston Villa & over 2.5	19.3%	17.6%	20.0%	0.88×	5.69
Aston Villa & under 3.5	19.2%	17.6%	21.7%	0.81×	5.69
Draw & over 1.5	18.8%	17.6%	20.0%	0.88×	5.69
Newcastle United & over 3.5	18.8%	17.6%	16.4%	1.07×	5.69
Draw & under 2.5	15.2%	17.6%	16.3%	1.08×	5.70
Draw & under 3.5	15.2%	17.6%	16.3%	1.08×	5.70
Newcastle United & under 2.5	15.0%	12.7%	13.0%	0.98×	7.86
Aston Villa & under 2.5	10.2%	12.7%	12.4%	1.03×	7.87
Aston Villa & over 3.5	10.3%	12.7%	10.7%	1.19×	7.87
Newcastle United & under 1.5	8.0%	7.5%	6.5%	1.15×	13.41
Draw & over 2.5	8.1%	7.5%	8.5%	0.87×	13.41
Draw & over 3.5	8.1%	7.5%	8.5%	0.87×	13.41
Aston Villa & under 1.5	6.1%	7.5%	6.9%	1.08×	13.42
Draw & under 1.5	4.6%	4.6%	4.9%	0.94×	21.91

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United (1UP)	63.9%	64.0%	62.1%	1.03×	1.56
Aston Villa (1UP)	48.9%	44.6%	51.4%	0.87×	2.24

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United (2UP)	47.1%	49.5%	44.9%	1.10×	2.02
Aston Villa (2UP)	29.5%	30.8%	34.5%	0.89×	3.25

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa to win 2nd half	36.5%	37.5%	32.9%	1.14×	2.67
2nd half drawn	33.0%	33.7%	30.9%	1.09×	2.96
Newcastle United to win 2nd half	30.5%	33.7%	36.3%	0.93×	2.97

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa (+2.5)	88.9%	89.0%	89.2%	1.00×	1.12
Aston Villa (+1.5)	74.6%	73.2%	76.0%	0.96×	1.37
Newcastle United (+0.5)	70.5%	73.0%	67.7%	1.08×	1.37
Aston Villa (+0.5)	52.9%	51.6%	56.9%	0.91×	1.94
Newcastle United (-0.5)	47.1%	48.4%	43.1%	1.12×	2.07
Aston Villa (-0.5)	29.5%	27.0%	32.3%	0.84×	3.71
Newcastle United (-1.5)	25.4%	26.8%	24.0%	1.12×	3.73
Newcastle United (-2.5)	11.1%	11.0%	10.8%	1.02×	9.12

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa to concede	82.6%	84.8%	78.4%	1.08×	1.18
Aston Villa clean sheet	17.4%	15.2%	21.6%	0.70×	6.59

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa to concede in 1st half	59.8%	60.4%	51.4%	1.18×	1.66
Aston Villa clean sheet in 1st half	40.2%	39.6%	48.6%	0.81×	2.53

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa over 2.5 corners	79.7%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Aston Villa under 6.5 corners	75.9%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Aston Villa over 3.5 corners	65.0%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Aston Villa under 5.5 corners	64.5%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Aston Villa under 4.5 corners	50.5%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Aston Villa over 4.5 corners	49.5%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Aston Villa over 5.5 corners	35.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Aston Villa under 3.5 corners	35.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Aston Villa over 6.5 corners	24.1%	24.0%	—	—	4.16
Aston Villa under 2.5 corners	20.3%	24.0%	—	—	4.16

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa under 3.5 goals	95.3%	97.3%	94.5%	1.03×	1.03
Aston Villa under 2.5 goals	84.8%	82.3%	85.0%	0.97×	1.22
Aston Villa over 0.5 goals	73.8%	72.0%	74.9%	0.96×	1.39
Aston Villa under 1.5 goals	61.3%	64.1%	60.6%	1.06×	1.56
Aston Villa over 1.5 goals	38.7%	35.9%	39.4%	0.91×	2.79
Aston Villa under 0.5 goals	26.2%	28.0%	25.1%	1.12×	3.57
Aston Villa over 2.5 goals	15.2%	17.7%	15.0%	1.18×	5.66
Aston Villa over 3.5 goals	4.7%	2.7%	5.5%	0.50×	36.90

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa under 1.5 in 1st half	94.1%	93.3%	89.2%	1.05×	1.07
Aston Villa under 0.5 in 1st half	67.7%	67.2%	59.4%	1.13×	1.49
Aston Villa over 0.5 in 1st half	32.3%	32.8%	40.6%	0.81×	3.05
Aston Villa over 1.5 in 1st half	5.9%	6.7%	10.8%	0.62×	14.91

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United (away no bet)	66.8%	71.6%	63.5%	1.13×	1.40
Draw (away no bet)	33.2%	28.4%	36.5%	0.78×	3.52

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa even goals	53.4%	52.4%	53.7%	0.98×	1.91
Aston Villa odd goals	46.6%	47.6%	46.3%	1.03×	2.10

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	80.1%	81.6%	80.1%	1.02×	1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals	19.9%	18.4%	19.9%	0.93×	5.43

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	70.8%	71.2%	70.2%	1.01×	1.41
Both halves under 1.5 goals	29.2%	28.8%	29.8%	0.97×	3.47

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	62.2%	61.3%	61.4%	1.00×	1.63
Newcastle United to score 2+ in a row	42.4%	45.0%	39.1%	1.15×	2.22
Aston Villa to score 2+ in a row	28.4%	25.2%	29.9%	0.84×	3.97
Either team to score 3+ in a row	24.1%	21.8%	26.2%	0.83×	4.59
Newcastle United to score 3+ in a row	16.4%	17.8%	16.5%	1.08×	5.62
Aston Villa to score 3+ in a row	8.2%	7.4%	10.2%	0.72×	13.60

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United corners (+3.5)	87.2%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Newcastle United corners (+2.5)	81.2%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Aston Villa corners (+3.5)	73.9%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Newcastle United corners (+1.5)	73.6%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Aston Villa corners (+2.5)	65.3%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Aston Villa corners (+1.5)	55.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Newcastle United corners (-1.5)	44.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Newcastle United corners (-2.5)	34.7%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Aston Villa corners (-1.5)	26.4%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Newcastle United corners (-3.5)	26.1%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Aston Villa corners (-2.5)	18.8%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Aston Villa corners (-3.5)	12.8%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	38.5%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
0-8 corners	32.4%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.1%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	76.8%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 12.5 corners	69.9%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	67.6%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 11.5 corners	61.5%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Over 9.5 corners	57.7%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 10.5 corners	52.1%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 10.5 corners	47.9%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 9.5 corners	42.3%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 11.5 corners	38.5%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Under 8.5 corners	32.4%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 12.5 corners	30.1%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Under 7.5 corners	23.2%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.7%	11.6%	11.5%	1.00×	8.64
2-1	9.3%	7.3%	9.0%	0.81×	13.74
1-0	8.0%	7.3%	6.5%	1.12×	13.74
1-2	7.2%	7.3%	6.9%	1.05×	13.75
2-0	7.0%	7.3%	6.6%	1.11×	13.75
2-2	6.3%	7.3%	7.6%	0.96×	13.75
0-1	6.1%	7.3%	6.9%	1.05×	13.75
3-1	5.4%	7.3%	5.5%	1.33×	13.75
0-0	4.6%	1.8%	4.9%	0.37×	55.39
0-2	4.1%	1.8%	5.5%	0.33×	55.41
3-0	4.1%	1.8%	5.0%	0.36×	55.41
Any other score	4.4%	1.8%	4.2%	0.43×	55.40
1-3	3.2%	1.8%	3.2%	0.56×	55.43
2-3	2.8%	1.8%	2.4%	0.76×	55.44
3-2	3.6%	1.8%	3.1%	0.59×	55.42
0-3	1.8%	1.8%	2.6%	0.70×	55.46
3-3	1.6%	1.8%	0.8%	2.35×	55.47
4-0	1.8%	1.8%	1.4%	1.32×	55.46
4-1	2.4%	1.8%	2.2%	0.81×	55.45
4-2	1.6%	1.8%	1.4%	1.32×	55.47
0-4	0.6%	1.8%	1.1%	1.62×	55.49
1-4	1.1%	1.8%	1.5%	1.24×	55.48
2-4	0.9%	1.8%	0.7%	2.64×	55.49
3-4	0.5%	1.8%	0.5%	3.52×	55.50
4-3	0.7%	1.8%	0.9%	1.92×	55.49
4-4	0.2%	1.8%	0.3%	5.28×	55.50

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United leading at HT (DNB)	75.4%	79.3%	59.6%	1.33×	1.26
Aston Villa leading at HT (DNB)	24.6%	20.7%	40.4%	0.51×	4.84

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United or Aston Villa (12)	76.6%	77.8%	75.3%	1.03×	1.29
Newcastle United or draw (1X)	70.5%	72.4%	67.7%	1.07×	1.38
Aston Villa or draw (X2)	52.9%	50.8%	56.9%	0.89×	1.97

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United or draw at HT	84.7%	81.8%	75.5%	1.08×	1.22
Newcastle United or Aston Villa at HT	62.2%	63.2%	60.6%	1.04×	1.58
Aston Villa or draw at HT	53.1%	52.1%	63.8%	0.82×	1.92

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United or draw (1UP)	70.5%	77.3%	74.4%	1.04×	1.29
Aston Villa or draw (1UP)	52.9%	58.8%	65.2%	0.90×	1.70

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa or draw in 2nd half	69.5%	66.3%	63.7%	1.04×	1.51
Newcastle United or Aston Villa in 2nd half	67.0%	66.3%	69.1%	0.96×	1.51
Newcastle United or draw in 2nd half	63.5%	62.5%	67.2%	0.93×	1.60

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	58.3%	58.0%	56.7%	1.02×	1.72
Neither half drawn	41.7%	42.0%	43.3%	0.97×	2.38

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United (DNB)	61.5%	62.2%	57.2%	1.09×	1.61
Aston Villa (DNB)	38.5%	37.8%	42.8%	0.88×	2.65

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United to score first	54.1%	53.8%	52.0%	1.03×	1.86
Aston Villa to score first	41.4%	41.3%	43.3%	0.96×	2.42
No goal scored	4.6%	4.1%	4.9%	0.84×	24.56

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	60.9%	57.3%	58.2%	0.98×	1.75
Not both teams to score	39.1%	42.7%	41.8%	1.02×	2.34

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	50.3%	46.8%	46.8%	1.00×	2.14
Not both score & under 2.5	29.7%	31.6%	30.0%	1.05×	3.16
Both score & under 2.5	10.7%	11.7%	11.5%	1.02×	8.54
Not both score & over 2.5	9.3%	8.7%	11.9%	0.74×	11.44

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	79.8%	83.9%	82.2%	1.02×	1.19
Both teams to score 2+	20.2%	16.1%	17.8%	0.90×	6.23

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	65.2%	69.3%	68.9%	1.01×	1.44
Both teams to score in 2nd half	34.8%	30.7%	31.1%	0.99×	3.26

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	52.6%	54.9%	55.9%	0.98×	1.82
Both score 2nd half only	28.1%	24.8%	24.6%	1.01×	4.04
Both score 1st half only	12.6%	11.6%	13.1%	0.89×	8.65
Both score in both halves	6.7%	6.5%	6.7%	0.97×	15.45

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	80.7%	83.1%	80.4%	1.03×	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	19.3%	16.9%	19.6%	0.86×	5.93

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	60.6%	62.9%	61.9%	1.02×	1.59
A half without a goal	39.4%	37.1%	38.1%	0.98×	2.69

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.1%	43.2%	46.6%	0.93×	2.31
4-6 goals	33.4%	31.6%	32.7%	0.97×	3.16
0-1 goals	18.6%	20.8%	18.1%	1.15×	4.82
7+ goals	3.8%	2.0%	2.8%	0.70×	50.77

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa to score exactly 1	35.1%	34.5%	35.6%	0.97×	2.90
Aston Villa to score exactly 0	26.2%	27.1%	25.1%	1.08×	3.70
Aston Villa to score exactly 2	23.5%	24.0%	24.5%	0.98×	4.17
Aston Villa to score 3+	15.2%	18.3%	15.0%	1.22×	5.47

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United to score exactly 1	30.4%	30.5%	29.6%	1.03×	3.28
Newcastle United to score exactly 2	26.6%	27.1%	26.1%	1.04×	3.70
Newcastle United to score 3+	25.6%	27.0%	22.9%	1.18×	3.70
Newcastle United to score exactly 0	17.4%	18.5%	21.6%	0.86×	5.41

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United leading at HT	46.9%	47.9%	36.2%	1.33×	2.09
Draw at HT	37.8%	36.8%	39.4%	0.93×	2.72
Aston Villa leading at HT	15.3%	18.2%	24.5%	0.74×	5.50

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United -1: 2	52.9%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Newcastle United -1: 1	25.4%	27.0%	—	—	3.71
Newcastle United -1: X	21.8%	23.9%	—	—	4.18

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa (0:1)	52.9%	53.4%	56.9%	0.94×	1.87
Newcastle United (0:1)	25.4%	26.2%	24.0%	1.09×	3.82
Draw (0:1)	21.8%	24.4%	19.2%	1.27×	4.10

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa (0:2)	74.6%	73.4%	76.0%	0.97×	1.36
Draw (0:2)	14.3%	11.8%	13.3%	0.89×	8.49
Newcastle United (0:2)	11.1%	11.7%	10.8%	1.09×	8.55

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa (0:3)	88.9%	88.4%	89.2%	0.99×	1.13
Draw (0:3)	7.1%	6.9%	7.5%	0.92×	14.47
Newcastle United (0:3)	4.0%	2.3%	3.3%	0.70×	42.72

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa (0:4)	96.0%	98.0%	96.7%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.8%	1.3%	2.0%	0.61×	79.92
Newcastle United (0:4)	1.2%	1.2%	1.4%	0.91×	80.72

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United (1:0)	70.5%	73.6%	67.7%	1.09×	1.36
Draw (1:0)	16.7%	16.3%	16.6%	0.99×	6.12
Aston Villa (1:0)	12.8%	11.8%	15.8%	0.75×	8.49

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United (2:0)	87.2%	89.3%	84.2%	1.06×	1.12
Draw (2:0)	8.4%	6.6%	9.3%	0.71×	15.09
Aston Villa (2:0)	4.4%	2.7%	6.6%	0.41×	36.73

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.9%	48.7%	49.7%	0.98×	2.05
1st half highest scoring	27.9%	26.1%	25.8%	1.01×	3.83
Halves equal	23.2%	23.2%	24.7%	0.94×	4.32

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United to concede	73.8%	71.3%	74.9%	0.95×	1.40
Newcastle United clean sheet	26.2%	28.7%	25.1%	1.14×	3.48

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United clean sheet in 1st half	67.7%	67.4%	59.4%	1.13×	1.48
Newcastle United to concede in 1st half	32.3%	32.6%	40.6%	0.80×	3.07

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United over 2.5 corners	87.2%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Newcastle United over 3.5 corners	76.0%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Newcastle United under 6.5 corners	63.1%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Newcastle United over 4.5 corners	62.8%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Newcastle United under 5.5 corners	50.7%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Newcastle United over 5.5 corners	49.3%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Newcastle United under 4.5 corners	37.2%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Newcastle United over 6.5 corners	36.9%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Newcastle United under 3.5 corners	24.0%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Newcastle United under 2.5 corners	12.8%	13.7%	—	—	7.30

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United under 3.5 goals	89.9%	87.9%	91.6%	0.96×	1.14
Newcastle United over 0.5 goals	82.6%	82.4%	78.4%	1.05×	1.21
Newcastle United under 2.5 goals	74.4%	72.8%	77.1%	0.94×	1.37
Newcastle United over 1.5 goals	52.2%	52.7%	48.9%	1.08×	1.90
Newcastle United under 1.5 goals	47.8%	47.3%	51.1%	0.92×	2.12
Newcastle United over 2.5 goals	25.6%	27.2%	22.9%	1.19×	3.68
Newcastle United under 0.5 goals	17.4%	17.6%	21.6%	0.81×	5.69
Newcastle United over 3.5 goals	10.1%	12.1%	8.4%	1.45×	8.25

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United under 1.5 in 1st half	76.9%	79.1%	84.5%	0.94×	1.27
Newcastle United over 0.5 in 1st half	59.8%	60.2%	51.4%	1.17×	1.66
Newcastle United under 0.5 in 1st half	40.2%	39.8%	48.6%	0.82×	2.51
Newcastle United over 1.5 in 1st half	23.1%	20.9%	15.5%	1.35×	4.78

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa (home no bet)	55.8%	54.2%	56.6%	0.96×	1.85
Draw (home no bet)	44.2%	45.8%	43.4%	1.05×	2.18

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United even goals	51.5%	50.2%	53.8%	0.93×	1.99
Newcastle United odd goals	48.5%	49.8%	46.2%	1.08×	2.01

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	27.2%	28.1%	27.6%	1.02×	3.56
HT 1-0	24.8%	22.7%	21.8%	1.04×	4.41
HT 2-0	11.3%	11.2%	8.1%	1.38×	8.95
HT 0-1	10.6%	11.2%	14.8%	0.75×	8.95
HT 1-1	9.7%	7.7%	10.9%	0.71×	12.97
Any other HT score	7.1%	7.7%	5.3%	1.45×	13.01
HT 2-1	4.4%	2.5%	3.8%	0.67×	39.75
HT 0-2	2.1%	2.5%	4.5%	0.55×	39.88
HT 1-2	1.9%	2.5%	2.8%	0.89×	39.89
HT 2-2	0.9%	2.5%	1.0%	2.44×	39.95

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United at HT / Newcastle United at FT	34.3%	34.4%	26.3%	1.31×	2.91
Draw at HT / Aston Villa at FT	13.8%	12.0%	12.0%	1.00×	8.34
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.5%	12.0%	13.6%	0.88×	8.36
Draw at HT / Newcastle United at FT	11.5%	12.0%	14.0%	0.85×	8.36
Aston Villa at HT / Aston Villa at FT	11.2%	12.0%	16.9%	0.71×	8.37
Newcastle United at HT / Draw at FT	8.2%	6.6%	6.6%	1.00×	15.20
Newcastle United at HT / Aston Villa at FT	4.5%	3.4%	3.5%	0.97×	29.32
Aston Villa at HT / Draw at FT	2.8%	3.4%	4.8%	0.71×	29.40
Aston Villa at HT / Newcastle United at FT	1.3%	3.4%	3.0%	1.14×	29.46

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United to score last	54.1%	53.7%	50.3%	1.07×	1.86
Aston Villa to score last	41.4%	40.3%	44.9%	0.90×	2.48
No goal scored	4.6%	4.1%	4.9%	0.84×	24.56

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.4%	95.9%	95.1%	1.01×	1.04
Newcastle United to lead by 1 at any time	63.9%	64.5%	62.1%	1.04×	1.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	51.9%	50.9%	50.8%	1.00×	1.96
Aston Villa to lead by 1 at any time	48.9%	46.2%	51.4%	0.90×	2.17
Newcastle United to lead by 2 at any time	33.0%	32.1%	29.9%	1.07×	3.12
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	20.1%	19.7%	21.2%	0.93×	5.07
Aston Villa to lead by 2 at any time	19.3%	17.7%	21.2%	0.83×	5.65
Newcastle United to lead by 3 at any time	13.9%	11.4%	13.1%	0.86×	8.81
Aston Villa to lead by 3 at any time	6.2%	7.0%	8.1%	0.87×	14.24

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United most corners	54.6%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Aston Villa most corners	35.4%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Corners level	10.0%	8.4%	—	—	11.89

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.2%	87.9%	88.5%	0.99×	1.14
2-6 goals	77.6%	78.9%	79.2%	1.00×	1.27
1-4 goals	75.5%	78.8%	78.2%	1.01×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.1%	73.6%	75.3%	0.98×	1.36
2-4 goals	61.4%	62.3%	64.9%	0.96×	1.61
1-3 goals	58.2%	58.8%	59.8%	0.98×	1.70
3-6 goals	55.8%	58.7%	55.8%	1.05×	1.70
3-5 goals	50.3%	52.3%	51.9%	1.01×	1.91
2-3 goals	44.1%	43.6%	46.6%	0.94×	2.29
3-4 goals	39.7%	38.9%	41.6%	0.94×	2.57
1-2 goals	35.8%	38.8%	36.7%	1.06×	2.58
4-6 goals	33.4%	34.1%	32.7%	1.04×	2.93
4-5 goals	27.9%	30.5%	28.8%	1.06×	3.28
5-6 goals	16.2%	18.1%	14.3%	1.26×	5.54
7+ goals	3.8%	2.0%	2.8%	0.73×	48.83

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United never behind	46.5%	53.6%	48.6%	1.10×	1.87
Aston Villa never behind	31.6%	36.1%	37.9%	0.95×	2.77

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.1%	49.0%	1.02×	1.99
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.9%	51.0%	0.98×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.7%	51.9%	53.4%	0.97×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	46.3%	48.1%	46.6%	1.03×	2.08

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.4%	51.7%	51.8%	1.00×	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.6%	48.3%	48.2%	1.00×	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.4%	95.6%	95.1%	1.01×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	90.7%	92.9%	93.3%	1.00×	1.08
Over 1.5 goals	81.4%	80.9%	81.9%	0.99×	1.24
Under 4.5 goals	80.0%	80.9%	82.9%	0.98×	1.24
Under 3.5 goals	62.8%	61.5%	64.6%	0.95×	1.63
Over 2.5 goals	59.6%	57.8%	58.5%	0.99×	1.73
Under 2.5 goals	40.4%	42.2%	41.5%	1.02×	2.37
Over 3.5 goals	37.2%	38.5%	35.4%	1.09×	2.60
Over 4.5 goals	20.0%	19.1%	17.1%	1.12×	5.24
Under 1.5 goals	18.6%	19.1%	18.1%	1.05×	5.25
Over 5.5 goals	9.3%	7.1%	6.7%	1.05×	14.14
Under 0.5 goals	4.6%	4.4%	4.9%	0.90×	22.78

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.0%	97.2%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	89.6%	88.2%	92.5%	0.95×	1.13
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	76.2%	76.5%	76.4%	1.00×	1.31
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	75.9%	76.4%	79.1%	0.97×	1.31
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	52.0%	53.1%	53.9%	0.98×	1.89
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	48.0%	46.9%	46.1%	1.02×	2.13
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	24.1%	23.6%	20.9%	1.13×	4.24
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	23.8%	23.5%	23.6%	1.00×	4.25
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	10.4%	11.8%	7.5%	1.57×	8.45
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	4.0%	2.8%	2.9%	0.95×	35.83

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	85.7%	88.0%	87.4%	1.01×	1.14
Over 0.5 in 1st half	72.8%	72.4%	72.4%	1.00×	1.38
Under 1.5 in 1st half	62.7%	63.0%	64.1%	0.98×	1.59
Over 1.5 in 1st half	37.3%	37.0%	35.9%	1.03×	2.71
Under 0.5 in 1st half	27.2%	27.6%	27.6%	1.00×	3.63
Over 2.5 in 1st half	14.3%	12.0%	12.6%	0.95×	8.34

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	83.3%	82.1%	84.7%	0.97×	1.22
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	73.4%	76.3%	75.9%	1.01×	1.31
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	46.7%	51.8%	45.8%	1.13×	1.93
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	53.3%	48.2%	54.2%	0.89×	2.08
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	26.6%	23.7%	24.1%	0.98×	4.23
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	16.7%	17.9%	15.3%	1.17×	5.58

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa not to score in both halves	80.2%	81.4%	76.8%	1.06×	1.23
Newcastle United not to score in both halves	66.1%	66.9%	68.7%	0.97×	1.50
Newcastle United to score in both halves	33.9%	33.1%	31.3%	1.06×	3.02
Aston Villa to score in both halves	19.8%	18.6%	23.2%	0.80×	5.38

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	60.9%	57.9%	58.2%	1.00×	1.73
Only Newcastle United scores	21.7%	22.8%	20.3%	1.12×	4.39
Only Aston Villa scores	12.8%	10.8%	16.8%	0.64×	9.25
Neither team scores	4.6%	3.9%	4.9%	0.81×	25.43

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	21.5%	23.2%	0.93×	4.64
Exactly 2 goals	21.7%	21.5%	23.5%	0.92×	4.64
Exactly 4 goals	17.3%	18.6%	18.4%	1.01×	5.39
Exactly 1 goals	14.1%	12.4%	13.3%	0.93×	8.08
Exactly 5 goals	10.7%	12.3%	10.4%	1.19×	8.10
6 or more goals	9.3%	7.6%	6.7%	1.13×	13.11
Exactly 0 goals	4.6%	4.4%	4.9%	0.90×	22.83

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	53.3%	47.5%	54.2%	0.88×	2.11
1 goal in 2nd half	29.9%	28.5%	30.6%	0.93×	3.51
No goals in 2nd half	16.7%	18.3%	15.3%	1.20×	5.46

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa not to win both halves	94.4%	93.4%	91.2%	1.02×	1.07
Newcastle United not to win both halves	85.7%	87.5%	86.5%	1.01×	1.14
Newcastle United to win both halves	14.3%	12.5%	13.5%	0.93×	7.99
Aston Villa to win both halves	5.6%	6.6%	8.8%	0.75×	15.20

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United to win either half	63.1%	63.7%	59.0%	1.08×	1.57
Aston Villa to win neither half	53.8%	54.0%	51.5%	1.05×	1.85
Aston Villa to win either half	46.2%	46.0%	48.5%	0.95×	2.17
Newcastle United to win neither half	36.9%	36.3%	41.0%	0.89×	2.75

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa not to win to nil	87.2%	88.3%	83.2%	1.06×	1.13
Newcastle United not to win to nil	78.3%	77.2%	79.7%	0.97×	1.30
Newcastle United to win to nil	21.7%	22.8%	20.3%	1.12×	4.39
Aston Villa to win to nil	12.8%	11.7%	16.8%	0.70×	8.52

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	23.4%	23.8%	24.7%	0.96×	4.21
Newcastle United by 1	21.8%	23.7%	19.2%	1.24×	4.21
Aston Villa by 1	16.7%	17.0%	16.6%	1.03×	5.89
Newcastle United by 2	14.3%	11.9%	13.3%	0.89×	8.42
Newcastle United by 3+	11.1%	11.8%	10.8%	1.10×	8.45
Aston Villa by 2	8.4%	7.1%	9.3%	0.76×	14.08
Aston Villa by 3+	4.4%	2.8%	6.6%	0.43×	35.14