Newcastle United v Bournemouth — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 18 April 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 12
On target
2 – 3
Shots in box
11 – 7
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.29
Set-piece xG
0.84 – 0.12
Goals − xG
-0.63 – -1.51
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Newcastle United win
39.3%
Draw
27.6%
Bournemouth win
33.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Newcastle United have scored 14 from 12.7 expected and conceded 18 from 17.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLDWDLWLL last 10
scored 14
from 12.7 xG
conceded 18
from 17.2 xG
Bournemouth are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WDDLDDDLLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.2 xG
conceded 15
from 13.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.56–1.42 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.86–1.62 | 1-1 9% | 67% | 68% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Newcastle United 1.63 xGBournemouth 3.51 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Newcastle United attacking right
Bournemouth attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Bournemouth |
James Hill | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Alejandro Jiménez |
| 4' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcos Senesi |
| 4' |
 Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | William Osula |
| 7' |
Newcastle United |
Sandro Tonali | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 9' |
Bournemouth |
Ryan Christie | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 10' |
Bournemouth |
Eli Junior Kroupi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 14' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jacob Ramsey |
| 18' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.53 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 26' |
Bournemouth |
Rayan | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Evanilson |
| 31' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.95 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Rayan |
| 39' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.66 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alex Scott |
| 41' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Ramsey | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 42' |
Newcastle United |
Malick Thiaw | 0.10 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Bournemouth |
Eli Junior Kroupi | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 60' |
Newcastle United |
Sandro Tonali | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jacob Ramsey |
| 67' |
Newcastle United |
William Osula | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 74' |
Bournemouth |
James Hill | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 77' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.07 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 77' |
Newcastle United |
Malick Thiaw | 0.07 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sven Botman |
| 77' |
Newcastle United |
William Osula | 0.12 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 84' |
Bournemouth |
Adrien Truffert | 0.95 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 84' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.15 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 92' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 93' |
Newcastle United |
Dan Burn | 0.49 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Bruno Guimarães |
Players
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Tavernier AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1.54 | 0.28 | 1.73 |
| Adrien Truffert DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.95 | 0.00 | 2.15 |
| Evanilson FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.81 | 0.03 | 0.87 |
| James Hill DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 1.21 |
| Alex Scott DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.66 | 1.85 |
| Alejandro Jiménez DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1.20 |
| Djordje Petrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Marcos Senesi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1.20 |
| Rayan AMR | 80 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.95 | 1.04 |
| Eli Junior Kroupi AMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 1.73 |
| Ryan Christie DMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.53 | 1.58 |
| Tyler Adams Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| David Brooks Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Ben Doak Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alex Tóth Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Enes Ünal Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Newcastle United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Osula FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.55 | 0.12 | 0.57 |
| Harvey Barnes FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Malick Thiaw DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Aaron Ramsdale GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Sven Botman DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.60 |
| Lewis Miley MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Sandro Tonali MC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Valentino Livramento DR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Jacob Ramsey MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| Anthony Elanga FWR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Lewis Hall DL | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kieran Trippier Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Bruno Guimarães Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.49 | 0.50 |
| Jacob Murphy Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dan Burn Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nick Woltemade Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |