Newcastle United v Brentford — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 2 April 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
21 – 12
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
15 – 10
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.06 – 0.83
Goals − xG
-0.27 – -0.54
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Newcastle United win
48.3%
Draw
24.3%
Brentford win
27.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Newcastle United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLWDWLDWD last 10
scored 15
from 14.3 xG
conceded 14
from 19.1 xG
Brentford are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLWLDDWDD last 10
scored 14
from 19.1 xG
conceded 12
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.86–1.37 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.10–1.41 | 2-1 9% | 68% | 66% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Newcastle United 2.27 xGBrentford 1.54 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Newcastle United attacking right
Brentford attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.51 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Valentino Livramento |
| 10' |
Newcastle United |
Joelinton | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Valentino Livramento |
| 21' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jacob Murphy |
| 23' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sandro Tonali |
| 27' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 28' |
 Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yoane Wissa |
| 28' |
Newcastle United |
Sandro Tonali | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 30' |
Newcastle United |
Joelinton | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Harvey Barnes |
| 31' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bruno Guimarães |
| 33' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 35' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 35' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kevin Schade |
| 42' |
Newcastle United |
Fabian Schär | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bruno Guimarães |
| 46' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.59 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jacob Murphy |
| 46' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 54' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alexander Isak |
| 57' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kieran Trippier |
| 61' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jacob Murphy |
| 61' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 62' |
Brentford |
Christian Nørgaard | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 62' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kevin Schade |
| 62' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 65' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 67' |
Brentford |
Ethan Pinnock | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Kevin Schade |
| 73' |
Newcastle United |
Sandro Tonali | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Harvey Barnes |
| 85' |
Newcastle United |
Callum Wilson | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joelinton |
| 86' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kieran Trippier |
| 88' |
Newcastle United |
Callum Wilson | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Harvey Barnes |
| 90' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 92' |
Brentford |
Mikkel Damsgaard | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 92' |
Newcastle United |
Joe Willock | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Callum Wilson |
| 94' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 95' |
Brentford |
Christian Nørgaard | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
Players
Newcastle United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harvey Barnes FWL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 0.38 | 0.19 | 1.05 |
| Joelinton MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.13 | 1.48 |
| Sandro Tonali MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.19 |
| Fabian Schär DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Bruno Guimarães MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.77 |
| Dan Burn DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.10 |
| Valentino Livramento DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 1.20 |
| Kieran Trippier DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.62 |
| Nick Pope GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| Alexander Isak FW | 69 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.17 | 0.05 | 1.24 |
| Jacob Murphy FWR | 69 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.18 | 0.75 | 0.97 |
| Callum Wilson Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.11 | 0.35 |
| Joe Willock Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Emil Krafth Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Lewis Miley Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Brentford
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Mbeumo AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.84 | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| Yoane Wissa FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.10 | 0.34 |
| Kevin Schade AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.31 | 0.51 |
| Christian Nørgaard DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Keane Lewis-Potter DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mark Flekken GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Nathan Collins DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Sepp van den Berg DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Ethan Pinnock DC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Yehor Yarmolyuk AMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Vitaly Janelt DMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.07 | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| Kristoffer Ajer Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Paris Maghoma Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |