Newcastle United v Brighton and Hove Albion — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 2 May 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 13
On target
6 – 4
Shots in box
12 – 10
xG per shot
0.24 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.81 – 0.36
Goals − xG
-0.13 – -0.88
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Newcastle United win
34.3%
Draw
28.5%
Brighton and Hove Albion win
37.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Newcastle United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLWDWLDWD last 10
scored 15
from 14.3 xG
conceded 14
from 19.1 xG
Brighton and Hove Albion have scored 19 from 19.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDWLWLLWLD last 10
scored 19
from 19.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.39–1.45 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.62–1.41 | 1-1 11% | 58% | 61% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Newcastle United 3.13 xGBrighton and Hove Albion 1.88 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Newcastle United attacking right
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jack Hinshelwood | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kaoru Mitoma |
| 8' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Carlos Baleba | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Ferdi Kadioglu |
| 9' |
 Newcastle United |
William Osula | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jacob Murphy |
| 11' |
Newcastle United |
William Osula | 0.41 | Open Play | — | Goal | Jacob Murphy |
| 23' |
Newcastle United |
Dan Burn | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Goal | Bruno Guimarães |
| 28' |
Newcastle United |
Joe Willock | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | William Osula |
| 30' |
Newcastle United |
Malick Thiaw | 0.69 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sven Botman |
| 30' |
Newcastle United |
Sven Botman | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 36' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.08 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Olivier Boscagli |
| 37' |
Newcastle United |
William Osula | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sandro Tonali |
| 42' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 45' |
Newcastle United |
William Osula | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jacob Murphy |
| 47' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 49' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Carlos Baleba | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 53' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 54' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jack Hinshelwood | 0.24 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Yankuba Minteh |
| 55' |
Newcastle United |
Joe Willock | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 57' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yankuba Minteh | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Carlos Baleba |
| 60' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jack Hinshelwood | 0.31 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Danny Welbeck |
| 85' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Charalampos Kostoulas | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 85' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Pascal Groß | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ferdi Kadioglu |
| 86' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jack Hinshelwood | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Maxim De Cuyper |
| 88' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yankuba Minteh | 0.51 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Georginio Rutter |
| 89' |
Newcastle United |
Yoane Wissa | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lewis Hall |
| 93' |
Newcastle United |
Joelinton | 0.21 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sandro Tonali |
| 94' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.59 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Brighton and Hove Albion
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hinshelwood AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.87 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Yankuba Minteh AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.55 | 0.24 | 0.63 |
| Kaoru Mitoma AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| Pascal Groß DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.77 |
| Bart Verbruggen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Olivier Boscagli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.38 |
| Jan Paul van Hecke DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ferdi Kadioglu DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.38 |
| Danny Welbeck FW | 84 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| Carlos Baleba DMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.66 |
| Joël Veltman Sub | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mats Wieffer DR | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Charalampos Kostoulas Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Georginio Rutter Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.51 | 0.59 |
| Maxim De Cuyper Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Lewis Dunk Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Newcastle United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malick Thiaw DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joelinton AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 1.36 |
| Dan Burn DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.96 |
| Sven Botman DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.69 | 0.80 |
| Bruno Guimarães DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.43 |
| Sandro Tonali DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 1.01 |
| Nick Pope GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Lewis Miley DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| William Osula FW | 72 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.92 | 0.15 | 1.06 |
| Joe Willock AMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Jacob Murphy AMR | 72 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 0.67 |
| Harvey Barnes Sub | 18 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.59 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Yoane Wissa Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Lewis Hall Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| Jacob Ramsey Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |