Newcastle United v Chelsea — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 11 May 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 10
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
14 – 6
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.33 – 0.07
Goals − xG
+0.33 – -0.65
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Newcastle United win
44.4%
Draw
24.0%
Chelsea win
31.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Newcastle United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLWDWLDWD last 10
scored 15
from 14.3 xG
conceded 14
from 19.1 xG
Chelsea are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLDWLWWL last 10
scored 13
from 14.4 xG
conceded 21
from 18.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.69–1.40 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.00–1.62 | 2-1 9% | 70% | 69% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Newcastle United 1.67 xGChelsea 0.65 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Newcastle United attacking right
Chelsea attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Newcastle United |
Sandro Tonali | 0.62 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jacob Murphy |
| 9' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Valentino Livramento |
| 12' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 14' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Harvey Barnes |
| 18' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sven Botman |
| 19' |
 Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 19' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 23' |
Chelsea |
Moisés Caicedo | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 25' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 36' |
Newcastle United |
Dan Burn | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Sandro Tonali |
| 39' |
Chelsea |
Pedro Neto | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Noni Madueke |
| 42' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bruno Guimarães |
| 43' |
Newcastle United |
Dan Burn | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 45' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 47' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jacob Murphy |
| 48' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Moisés Caicedo |
| 48' |
Chelsea |
Pedro Neto | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 48' |
Chelsea |
Trevoh Chalobah | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 50' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.14 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Valentino Livramento |
| 57' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sandro Tonali |
| 61' |
Chelsea |
Marc Cucurella | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Cole Palmer |
| 69' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jacob Murphy |
| 81' |
Chelsea |
Enzo Fernández | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jadon Sancho |
| 87' |
Chelsea |
Reece James | 0.20 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Malo Gusto |
| 89' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | Dan Burn |
Players
Newcastle United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandro Tonali MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.62 | 0.07 | 0.84 |
| Harvey Barnes AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.04 | 0.41 |
| Alexander Isak FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Bruno Guimarães MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.09 | 1.01 |
| Dan Burn DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Jacob Murphy DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.78 | 0.97 |
| Nick Pope GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fabian Schär DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Valentino Livramento DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| Anthony Gordon AMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sven Botman DC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.19 |
| Lewis Miley Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Emil Krafth Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Sean Longstaff Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Callum Wilson Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Chelsea
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Neto AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Cole Palmer AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.45 |
| Enzo Fernández DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.18 | 0.37 |
| Marc Cucurella DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Moisés Caicedo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Robert Sánchez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Levi Colwill DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Trevoh Chalobah DC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Romeo Lavia DMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Noni Madueke AML | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Reece James Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Nicolas Jackson FW | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Malo Gusto Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| Jadon Sancho Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |