Newcastle United v Crystal Palace — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 4 January 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 11
On target
7 – 1
Shots in box
11 – 9
xG per shot
0.24 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
1.68 – 0.13
Goals − xG
-0.89 – -1.28
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Newcastle United win
47.2%
Draw
25.3%
Crystal Palace win
27.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Newcastle United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLWDWLDWD last 10
scored 15
from 14.3 xG
conceded 14
from 19.1 xG
Crystal Palace are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLDLLLW last 10
scored 10
from 15.7 xG
conceded 23
from 20.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.57–1.14 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.98–1.21 | 1-1 10% | 62% | 60% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Newcastle United 2.89 xGCrystal Palace 1.28 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Newcastle United attacking right
Crystal Palace attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Newcastle United |
Yoane Wissa | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Anthony Gordon |
| 5' |
 Crystal Palace |
Will Hughes | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Brennan Johnson |
| 6' |
Crystal Palace |
Will Hughes | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 16' |
Newcastle United |
Fabian Schär | 0.31 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Lewis Hall |
| 21' |
Crystal Palace |
Maxence Lacroix | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Adam Wharton |
| 41' |
Newcastle United |
Lewis Hall | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 43' |
Crystal Palace |
Will Hughes | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 44' |
Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Brennan Johnson |
| 45' |
Crystal Palace |
Marc Guehi | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Yeremi Pino |
| 48' |
Crystal Palace |
Will Hughes | 0.49 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Yeremi Pino |
| 59' |
Crystal Palace |
Brennan Johnson | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yeremi Pino |
| 61' |
Newcastle United |
Joelinton | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Lewis Hall |
| 61' |
Newcastle United |
Sandro Tonali | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 64' |
Crystal Palace |
Brennan Johnson | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Adam Wharton |
| 68' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Valentino Livramento |
| 70' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.56 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Lewis Miley |
| 76' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Fabian Schär |
| 77' |
Newcastle United |
Malick Thiaw | 0.74 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 79' |
Crystal Palace |
Christantus Uche | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 79' |
Crystal Palace |
Marc Guehi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 85' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Harvey Barnes |
| 91' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bruno Guimarães |
| 91' |
Newcastle United |
Joe Willock | 0.57 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Newcastle United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malick Thiaw DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Bruno Guimarães MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.56 | 0.29 | 0.49 |
| Fabian Schär DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.06 | 0.21 |
| Joelinton MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Jacob Murphy FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Nick Pope GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Lewis Miley DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.56 | 0.46 |
| Yoane Wissa FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Sandro Tonali MC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Lewis Hall DL | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.36 | 0.16 |
| Anthony Gordon FWL | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| Harvey Barnes Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.04 | 0.37 |
| Valentino Livramento Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.37 |
| Jacob Ramsey Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Nick Woltemade Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joe Willock Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
Crystal Palace
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hughes MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.56 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Marc Guehi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Maxence Lacroix DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Yeremi Pino AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.65 | 0.63 |
| Dean Henderson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Wharton MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.77 |
| Tyrick Mitchell DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Brennan Johnson AMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.17 | 0.31 |
| Nathaniel Clyne DMR | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jaydee Canvot Sub | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jefferson Lerma DC | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Justin Devenny Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christantus Uche Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Romain Esse Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kaden Rodney Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joél Drakes-Thomas Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |