Newcastle United v Everton — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 2 November 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627

Premier League xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:09 UTC

Newcastle United

20:00 UTC

Everton

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 9 Sep, 11:32 · 1,304h before kick-off

Newcastle United win

49.7%

model 47.9%

Draw

22.5%

model 23.7%

Everton win

27.9%

model 28.4%

502228

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (483 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.0%
2-1 9.4%
1-0 8.7%
2-0 7.4%
1-2 7.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	57.4%	Under 2.5	42.6%
BTTS yes	59.0%	BTTS no	41.0%
Newcastle United 1+	82.1%	Newcastle United 2+	51.2%
Everton 1+	71.9%	Everton 2+	36.3%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.27. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

94/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Newcastle United or draw (1X)

Double chance · usually 68%

72.4% fair odds 1.38

moderate signal · 1782 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Not both to score by HT

GG/NG half time · usually 80%

83.2% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1245 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Newcastle United carry the stronger rating, 1642 Elo against 1583.
Newcastle United have created 1.43 xG a match over their last five while Everton have allowed 1.82.
At home Newcastle United average 1.85 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Newcastle United have an estimated 49.7% win probability, against 27.9% for Everton and 22.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.72 for Newcastle United and 1.27 for Everton.

Why Newcastle United

Newcastle United carry the stronger rating, 1642 Elo against 1583. Newcastle United have created 1.43 xG a match over their last five while Everton have allowed 1.82. At home Newcastle United average 1.85 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.5%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Everton can win

Everton have created 1.37 xG a match over their last five while Newcastle United have allowed 1.91. Away from home Everton average 1.34 xG a match.

Key players

Newcastle United's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Bruno Guimarães (0.32), Nick Woltemade (0.30), Harvey Barnes (0.23). Everton's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Thierno Barry (0.32), Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (0.32), Iliman Ndiaye (0.29).

Availability

2 of Newcastle United's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Newcastle United's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Everton's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Newcastle United: 50% possession, 11.0 shots a match, 19.4 faced, 0.20 xG a match from set pieces. Everton: 45% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 13.8 faced, 0.25 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Newcastle United are the model's most likely outcome at 49.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.0%. Confidence 94/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Newcastle United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LLLWDWLDWD last 10 scored 15 from 14.3 xG conceded 14 from 19.1 xG

Everton have scored 15 from 13.7 expected and conceded 18 from 18.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

DLLDDLLWDD last 10 scored 15 from 13.7 xG conceded 18 from 18.2 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	482428	1.72–1.27	0%	0%	0%
dc-goals	462827	1.54–1.13	1-1 13%	50%	54%
dc-xg	472429	1.65–1.26	1-1 11%	56%	58%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United to win	47.9%	49.2%	43.1%	1.14×	2.03
Everton to win	28.4%	27.6%	32.3%	0.85×	3.63
Draw	23.7%	22.2%	24.7%	0.90×	4.50

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United & both teams score	24.9%	22.7%	22.9%	0.99×	4.40
Newcastle United & not both score	23.0%	22.7%	20.3%	1.12×	4.41
Draw & both teams score	18.7%	17.8%	20.0%	0.89×	5.61
Everton & both teams score	15.5%	17.8%	15.5%	1.15×	5.62
Everton & not both score	12.9%	12.1%	16.8%	0.72×	8.25
Draw & not both score	5.0%	7.3%	4.9%	1.50×	13.75

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United & over 1.5	39.3%	37.7%	36.7%	1.03×	2.65
Newcastle United & over 2.5	31.8%	33.1%	30.2%	1.09×	3.03
Newcastle United & under 3.5	29.8%	25.6%	26.8%	0.95×	3.91
Everton & over 1.5	22.0%	21.5%	25.4%	0.84×	4.66
Everton & under 3.5	19.2%	17.6%	21.7%	0.81×	5.68
Draw & over 1.5	18.7%	17.6%	20.0%	0.88×	5.68
Newcastle United & over 3.5	18.1%	17.6%	16.4%	1.08×	5.68
Everton & over 2.5	17.9%	17.6%	20.0%	0.88×	5.68
Newcastle United & under 2.5	16.1%	17.6%	13.0%	1.36×	5.68
Draw & under 2.5	16.0%	17.6%	16.3%	1.08×	5.68
Draw & under 3.5	16.0%	17.6%	16.3%	1.08×	5.68
Everton & under 2.5	10.5%	12.7%	12.4%	1.03×	7.88
Everton & over 3.5	9.2%	7.5%	10.7%	0.70×	13.33
Newcastle United & under 1.5	8.7%	7.5%	6.5%	1.16×	13.33
Draw & over 2.5	7.7%	7.5%	8.5%	0.88×	13.34
Draw & over 3.5	7.7%	7.5%	8.5%	0.88×	13.34
Everton & under 1.5	6.4%	7.5%	6.9%	1.08×	13.35
Draw & under 1.5	5.0%	7.5%	4.9%	1.54×	13.35

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United (1UP)	64.1%	64.1%	62.1%	1.03×	1.56
Everton (1UP)	47.4%	44.5%	51.4%	0.87×	2.25

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United (2UP)	47.9%	49.5%	44.9%	1.10×	2.02
Everton (2UP)	28.4%	31.0%	34.5%	0.90×	3.22

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United to win 2nd half	34.3%	33.8%	36.3%	0.93×	2.96
2nd half drawn	32.9%	33.8%	30.9%	1.09×	2.96
Everton to win 2nd half	32.8%	33.8%	32.9%	1.03×	2.96

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton under 1.5 in 2nd half	77.8%	78.0%	79.8%	0.98×	1.28
Everton over 0.5 in 2nd half	58.7%	56.4%	57.5%	0.98×	1.77
Everton under 0.5 in 2nd half	41.3%	43.6%	42.5%	1.03×	2.29
Everton over 1.5 in 2nd half	22.2%	22.0%	20.2%	1.09×	4.54

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United under 1.5 in 2nd half	76.8%	77.3%	75.3%	1.03×	1.29
Newcastle United over 0.5 in 2nd half	59.8%	58.9%	58.4%	1.01×	1.70
Newcastle United under 0.5 in 2nd half	40.2%	41.1%	41.6%	0.99×	2.43
Newcastle United over 1.5 in 2nd half	23.2%	22.7%	24.7%	0.92×	4.40

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton (+2.5)	88.9%	89.1%	89.2%	1.00×	1.12
Everton (+1.5)	74.3%	73.2%	76.0%	0.96×	1.37
Newcastle United (+0.5)	71.6%	73.1%	67.7%	1.08×	1.37
Everton (+0.5)	52.1%	51.8%	56.9%	0.91×	1.93
Newcastle United (-0.5)	47.9%	48.2%	43.1%	1.12×	2.08
Everton (-0.5)	28.4%	26.9%	32.3%	0.83×	3.72
Newcastle United (-1.5)	25.7%	26.8%	24.0%	1.12×	3.73
Newcastle United (-2.5)	11.1%	10.9%	10.8%	1.02×	9.15

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton to concede	82.1%	84.7%	78.4%	1.08×	1.18
Everton clean sheet	17.9%	15.3%	21.6%	0.71×	6.53

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton to concede in 1st half	55.4%	60.2%	51.4%	1.17×	1.66
Everton clean sheet in 1st half	44.6%	39.8%	48.6%	0.82×	2.51

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton to concede in 2nd half	59.8%	59.3%	58.4%	1.02×	1.69
Everton clean sheet in 2nd half	40.2%	40.7%	41.6%	0.98×	2.46

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton under 6.5 corners	82.4%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Everton over 2.5 corners	74.1%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Everton under 5.5 corners	72.2%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Everton under 4.5 corners	58.7%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Everton over 3.5 corners	57.4%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Everton under 3.5 corners	42.6%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Everton over 4.5 corners	41.3%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Everton over 5.5 corners	27.8%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Everton under 2.5 corners	25.9%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Everton over 6.5 corners	17.6%	18.6%	—	—	5.37

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton under 3.5 goals	96.0%	97.2%	94.5%	1.03×	1.03
Everton under 2.5 goals	86.4%	89.1%	85.0%	1.05×	1.12
Everton over 0.5 goals	71.9%	72.0%	74.9%	0.96×	1.39
Everton under 1.5 goals	63.8%	63.9%	60.6%	1.06×	1.57
Everton over 1.5 goals	36.2%	36.1%	39.4%	0.92×	2.77
Everton under 0.5 goals	28.1%	28.0%	25.1%	1.12×	3.57
Everton over 2.5 goals	13.6%	10.9%	15.0%	0.73×	9.16
Everton over 3.5 goals	4.0%	2.8%	5.5%	0.51×	36.21

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton under 1.5 in 1st half	94.2%	93.4%	89.2%	1.05×	1.07
Everton under 0.5 in 1st half	68.0%	67.2%	59.4%	1.13×	1.49
Everton over 0.5 in 1st half	32.0%	32.8%	40.6%	0.81×	3.05
Everton over 1.5 in 1st half	5.8%	6.6%	10.8%	0.61×	15.09

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton scores more in 2nd half	46.1%	46.7%	40.5%	1.15×	2.14
Everton scores equally in both	38.5%	38.9%	37.6%	1.03×	2.57
Everton scores more in 1st half	15.4%	18.1%	21.9%	0.83×	5.52

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United (away no bet)	66.9%	72.1%	63.5%	1.13×	1.39
Draw (away no bet)	33.1%	27.9%	36.5%	0.77×	3.58

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton even goals	53.9%	52.2%	53.7%	0.97×	1.91
Everton odd goals	46.1%	47.8%	46.3%	1.03×	2.09

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	82.1%	81.7%	80.1%	1.02×	1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals	17.9%	18.3%	19.9%	0.92×	5.46

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	69.1%	65.4%	70.2%	0.93×	1.53
Both halves under 1.5 goals	30.9%	34.6%	29.8%	1.16×	2.89

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	60.7%	61.0%	61.4%	0.99×	1.64
Newcastle United to score 2+ in a row	42.0%	45.0%	39.1%	1.15×	2.22
Everton to score 2+ in a row	26.5%	25.2%	29.9%	0.84×	3.97
Either team to score 3+ in a row	23.1%	21.8%	26.2%	0.83×	4.59
Newcastle United to score 3+ in a row	16.2%	17.8%	16.5%	1.08×	5.62
Everton to score 3+ in a row	7.3%	7.3%	10.2%	0.72×	13.64

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United corners (+3.5)	92.4%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Newcastle United corners (+2.5)	88.1%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Newcastle United corners (+1.5)	82.2%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Everton corners (+3.5)	63.8%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Newcastle United corners (-1.5)	55.8%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Everton corners (+2.5)	54.2%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Newcastle United corners (-2.5)	45.8%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Everton corners (+1.5)	44.2%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Newcastle United corners (-3.5)	36.2%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Everton corners (-1.5)	17.8%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Everton corners (-2.5)	11.9%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Everton corners (-3.5)	7.6%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	39.6%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
0-8 corners	31.6%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	28.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	77.4%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 8.5 corners	68.4%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 12.5 corners	68.8%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 11.5 corners	60.4%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Over 9.5 corners	58.7%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 10.5 corners	51.1%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 10.5 corners	48.9%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 9.5 corners	41.3%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 11.5 corners	39.6%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Under 8.5 corners	31.6%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 12.5 corners	31.2%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Under 7.5 corners	22.6%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.0%	11.6%	11.5%	1.01×	8.62
2-1	9.4%	7.3%	9.0%	0.81×	13.76
1-0	8.7%	7.3%	6.5%	1.12×	13.76
2-0	7.4%	7.3%	6.6%	1.11×	13.76
1-2	7.0%	7.3%	6.9%	1.05×	13.77
0-1	6.4%	7.3%	6.9%	1.05×	13.77
2-2	6.0%	7.3%	7.6%	0.96×	13.77
3-1	5.4%	7.3%	5.5%	1.33×	13.77
0-0	5.0%	7.3%	4.9%	1.49×	13.77
0-2	4.1%	1.8%	5.5%	0.33×	55.41
3-0	4.3%	1.8%	5.0%	0.36×	55.40
Any other score	4.0%	1.8%	4.2%	0.43×	55.41
1-3	3.0%	1.8%	3.2%	0.56×	55.44
2-3	2.5%	1.8%	2.4%	0.75×	55.45
3-2	3.4%	1.8%	3.1%	0.59×	55.42
0-3	1.7%	1.8%	2.6%	0.70×	55.47
3-3	1.5%	1.8%	0.8%	2.35×	55.47
4-0	1.8%	1.8%	1.4%	1.32×	55.46
4-1	2.3%	1.8%	2.2%	0.81×	55.45
4-2	1.5%	1.8%	1.4%	1.32×	55.47
0-4	0.5%	1.8%	1.1%	1.62×	55.49
1-4	0.9%	1.8%	1.5%	1.24×	55.49
2-4	0.8%	1.8%	0.7%	2.64×	55.49
3-4	0.5%	1.8%	0.5%	3.52×	55.50
4-3	0.6%	1.8%	0.9%	1.92×	55.49
4-4	0.2%	1.8%	0.3%	5.28×	55.50

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United (2nd half DNB)	51.1%	51.5%	52.5%	0.98×	1.94
Everton (2nd half DNB)	48.9%	48.5%	47.5%	1.02×	2.06

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United leading at HT (DNB)	72.3%	73.5%	59.6%	1.23×	1.36
Everton leading at HT (DNB)	27.7%	26.5%	40.4%	0.66×	3.78

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United or Everton (12)	76.3%	77.8%	75.3%	1.03×	1.29
Newcastle United or draw (1X)	71.6%	72.4%	67.7%	1.07×	1.38
Everton or draw (X2)	52.1%	50.8%	56.9%	0.89×	1.97

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United or draw at HT	83.5%	81.8%	75.5%	1.08×	1.22
Newcastle United or Everton at HT	59.4%	58.2%	60.6%	0.96×	1.72
Everton or draw at HT	57.0%	58.1%	63.8%	0.91×	1.72

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United or draw (1UP)	71.6%	77.2%	74.4%	1.04×	1.30
Everton or draw (1UP)	52.1%	58.8%	65.2%	0.90×	1.70

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United or draw in 2nd half	67.2%	66.2%	67.2%	0.99×	1.51
Newcastle United or Everton in 2nd half	67.1%	66.2%	69.1%	0.96×	1.51
Everton or draw in 2nd half	65.7%	66.2%	63.7%	1.04×	1.51

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	60.1%	59.3%	56.7%	1.05×	1.69
Neither half drawn	39.9%	40.7%	43.3%	0.94×	2.46

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United (DNB)	62.8%	61.9%	57.2%	1.08×	1.62
Everton (DNB)	37.2%	38.1%	42.8%	0.89×	2.63

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United to score first	54.6%	53.6%	52.0%	1.03×	1.86
Everton to score first	40.4%	41.3%	43.3%	0.95×	2.42
No goal scored	5.0%	6.2%	4.9%	1.27×	16.14

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	59.0%	56.6%	58.2%	0.97×	1.77
Not both teams to score	41.0%	43.4%	41.8%	1.04×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	48.0%	45.6%	46.8%	0.98×	2.19
Not both score & under 2.5	31.6%	34.2%	30.0%	1.14×	2.92
Both score & under 2.5	11.0%	11.7%	11.5%	1.02×	8.55
Not both score & over 2.5	9.4%	8.7%	11.9%	0.73×	11.52

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	81.4%	80.9%	82.2%	0.98×	1.24
Both teams to score 2+	18.6%	19.1%	17.8%	1.07×	5.24

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	64.9%	65.2%	68.9%	0.95×	1.54
Both teams to score in 2nd half	35.1%	34.8%	31.1%	1.12×	2.87

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	53.4%	54.8%	55.9%	0.98×	1.82
Both score 2nd half only	28.9%	24.8%	24.6%	1.01×	4.03
Both score 1st half only	11.5%	11.6%	13.1%	0.88×	8.66
Both score in both halves	6.2%	6.4%	6.7%	0.96×	15.66

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	82.3%	83.2%	80.4%	1.04×	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	17.7%	16.8%	19.6%	0.86×	5.95

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	58.1%	55.7%	61.9%	0.90×	1.79
A half without a goal	41.9%	44.3%	38.1%	1.16×	2.26

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.9%	43.3%	46.6%	0.93×	2.31
4-6 goals	31.7%	31.8%	32.7%	0.97×	3.14
0-1 goals	20.1%	22.7%	18.1%	1.25×	4.42
7+ goals	3.3%	1.9%	2.8%	0.69×	51.46

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton to score exactly 1	35.7%	34.6%	35.6%	0.97×	2.89
Everton to score exactly 0	28.1%	27.1%	25.1%	1.08×	3.69
Everton to score exactly 2	22.6%	24.1%	24.5%	0.98×	4.15
Everton to score 3+	13.6%	13.4%	15.0%	0.89×	7.46

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United to score exactly 1	30.8%	30.4%	29.6%	1.03×	3.29
Newcastle United to score exactly 2	26.5%	27.0%	26.1%	1.04×	3.70
Newcastle United to score 3+	24.7%	23.0%	22.9%	1.01×	4.35
Newcastle United to score exactly 0	17.9%	18.5%	21.6%	0.86×	5.40

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United leading at HT	43.0%	41.9%	36.2%	1.16×	2.39
Draw at HT	40.6%	41.8%	39.4%	1.06×	2.39
Everton leading at HT	16.5%	18.2%	24.5%	0.74×	5.48

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United -1: 2	52.1%	51.4%	—	—	1.94
Newcastle United -1: 1	25.7%	27.0%	—	—	3.70
Newcastle United -1: X	22.2%	24.0%	—	—	4.17

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton (0:1)	52.1%	53.4%	56.9%	0.94×	1.87
Newcastle United (0:1)	25.7%	26.3%	24.0%	1.10×	3.80
Draw (0:1)	22.2%	24.5%	19.2%	1.28×	4.08

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton (0:2)	74.3%	73.6%	76.0%	0.97×	1.36
Draw (0:2)	14.6%	11.7%	13.3%	0.88×	8.58
Newcastle United (0:2)	11.1%	11.6%	10.8%	1.07×	8.66

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton (0:3)	88.9%	88.6%	89.2%	0.99×	1.13
Draw (0:3)	7.2%	6.8%	7.5%	0.91×	14.68
Newcastle United (0:3)	4.0%	2.3%	3.3%	0.70×	42.96

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton (0:4)	96.0%	98.1%	96.7%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.8%	1.2%	2.0%	0.61×	80.69
Newcastle United (0:4)	1.2%	1.2%	1.4%	0.90×	81.51

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United (1:0)	71.6%	73.5%	67.7%	1.08×	1.36
Draw (1:0)	16.4%	16.4%	16.6%	0.99×	6.10
Everton (1:0)	11.9%	11.6%	15.8%	0.74×	8.59

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United (2:0)	88.1%	89.3%	84.2%	1.06×	1.12
Draw (2:0)	8.0%	6.5%	9.3%	0.70×	15.31
Everton (2:0)	4.0%	2.7%	6.6%	0.42×	36.66

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	51.5%	50.6%	49.7%	1.02×	1.98
1st half highest scoring	25.3%	26.1%	25.8%	1.01×	3.83
Halves equal	23.2%	23.2%	24.7%	0.94×	4.32

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United to concede	71.9%	71.4%	74.9%	0.95×	1.40
Newcastle United clean sheet	28.1%	28.6%	25.1%	1.14×	3.49

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United clean sheet in 1st half	68.0%	67.3%	59.4%	1.13×	1.49
Newcastle United to concede in 1st half	32.0%	32.7%	40.6%	0.80×	3.06

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United to concede in 2nd half	58.7%	56.1%	57.5%	0.98×	1.78
Newcastle United clean sheet in 2nd half	41.3%	43.9%	42.5%	1.03×	2.28

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United over 2.5 corners	90.5%	89.3%	—	—	1.12
Newcastle United over 3.5 corners	81.4%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Newcastle United over 4.5 corners	69.9%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Newcastle United over 5.5 corners	57.3%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Newcastle United under 6.5 corners	54.9%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Newcastle United over 6.5 corners	45.1%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Newcastle United under 5.5 corners	42.7%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Newcastle United under 4.5 corners	30.1%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Newcastle United under 3.5 corners	18.6%	19.0%	—	—	5.26
Newcastle United under 2.5 corners	9.5%	10.7%	—	—	9.31

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United under 3.5 goals	90.4%	92.1%	91.6%	1.01×	1.09
Newcastle United over 0.5 goals	82.1%	82.5%	78.4%	1.05×	1.21
Newcastle United under 2.5 goals	75.3%	76.8%	77.1%	1.00×	1.30
Newcastle United over 1.5 goals	51.2%	52.9%	48.9%	1.08×	1.89
Newcastle United under 1.5 goals	48.8%	47.1%	51.1%	0.92×	2.12
Newcastle United over 2.5 goals	24.7%	23.2%	22.9%	1.01×	4.32
Newcastle United under 0.5 goals	17.9%	17.5%	21.6%	0.81×	5.72
Newcastle United over 3.5 goals	9.6%	7.9%	8.4%	0.94×	12.73

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United under 1.5 in 1st half	80.6%	80.3%	84.5%	0.95×	1.25
Newcastle United over 0.5 in 1st half	55.4%	60.0%	51.4%	1.17×	1.67
Newcastle United under 0.5 in 1st half	44.6%	40.0%	48.6%	0.82×	2.50
Newcastle United over 1.5 in 1st half	19.4%	19.7%	15.5%	1.27×	5.07

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United scores more in 2nd half	36.0%	38.7%	36.3%	1.07×	2.59
Newcastle United scores equally in both	33.8%	31.6%	37.5%	0.84×	3.16
Newcastle United scores more in 1st half	30.2%	31.5%	26.4%	1.19×	3.18

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	45.5%	50.6%	43.4%	1.17×	1.98
Everton (home no bet)	54.5%	49.4%	56.6%	0.87×	2.03

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United even goals	51.6%	50.2%	53.8%	0.93×	1.99
Newcastle United odd goals	48.4%	49.8%	46.2%	1.08×	2.01

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	30.4%	30.4%	27.6%	1.10×	3.29
HT 1-0	24.5%	22.7%	21.8%	1.04×	4.40
HT 0-1	11.7%	11.2%	14.8%	0.75×	8.95
HT 2-0	9.9%	7.7%	8.1%	0.95×	12.96
HT 1-1	9.4%	7.7%	10.9%	0.71×	12.97
Any other HT score	5.5%	7.7%	5.3%	1.45×	13.02
HT 2-1	3.8%	2.5%	3.8%	0.67×	39.78
HT 0-2	2.3%	2.5%	4.5%	0.55×	39.87
HT 1-2	1.8%	2.5%	2.8%	0.89×	39.90
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.5%	1.0%	2.44×	39.96

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United at HT / Newcastle United at FT	32.3%	34.2%	26.3%	1.30×	2.92
Draw at HT / Newcastle United at FT	13.9%	12.0%	14.0%	0.85×	8.37
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.4%	11.9%	13.6%	0.88×	8.37
Draw at HT / Everton at FT	13.3%	11.9%	12.0%	0.99×	8.37
Everton at HT / Everton at FT	11.5%	11.9%	16.9%	0.71×	8.39
Newcastle United at HT / Draw at FT	7.1%	6.6%	6.6%	1.00×	15.22
Newcastle United at HT / Everton at FT	3.6%	3.4%	3.5%	0.97×	29.35
Everton at HT / Draw at FT	3.2%	3.4%	4.8%	0.71×	29.37
Everton at HT / Newcastle United at FT	1.7%	3.4%	3.0%	1.14×	29.43

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United to score last	54.6%	53.6%	50.3%	1.06×	1.87
Everton to score last	40.4%	40.2%	44.9%	0.90×	2.49
No goal scored	5.0%	6.2%	4.9%	1.27×	16.14

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.0%	93.8%	95.1%	0.99×	1.07
Newcastle United to lead by 1 at any time	64.1%	64.5%	62.1%	1.04×	1.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	50.7%	50.9%	50.8%	1.00×	1.96
Everton to lead by 1 at any time	47.4%	46.1%	51.4%	0.90×	2.17
Newcastle United to lead by 2 at any time	33.0%	31.9%	29.9%	1.07×	3.14
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	19.4%	17.7%	21.2%	0.83×	5.67
Everton to lead by 2 at any time	18.0%	17.6%	21.2%	0.83×	5.67
Newcastle United to lead by 3 at any time	13.8%	11.4%	13.1%	0.87×	8.79
Everton to lead by 3 at any time	5.6%	7.0%	8.1%	0.86×	14.27

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United most corners	65.7%	64.6%	—	—	1.55
Everton most corners	25.4%	31.0%	—	—	3.22
Corners level	9.0%	8.4%	—	—	11.90

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.7%	87.9%	88.5%	0.99×	1.14
1-4 goals	76.7%	78.9%	78.2%	1.01×	1.27
2-6 goals	76.6%	78.9%	79.2%	1.00×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.6%	73.6%	75.3%	0.98×	1.36
2-4 goals	61.6%	62.2%	64.9%	0.96×	1.61
1-3 goals	60.0%	58.9%	59.8%	0.99×	1.70
3-6 goals	54.1%	52.4%	55.8%	0.94×	1.91
3-5 goals	49.1%	48.0%	51.9%	0.93×	2.08
2-3 goals	44.9%	43.7%	46.6%	0.94×	2.29
3-4 goals	39.1%	38.9%	41.6%	0.94×	2.57
1-2 goals	37.6%	38.9%	36.7%	1.06×	2.57
4-6 goals	31.7%	34.0%	32.7%	1.04×	2.94
4-5 goals	26.7%	30.6%	28.8%	1.06×	3.27
5-6 goals	15.0%	13.6%	14.3%	0.95×	7.37
7+ goals	3.3%	2.0%	2.8%	0.72×	49.49

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United never behind	47.6%	53.7%	48.6%	1.10×	1.86
Everton never behind	30.9%	36.2%	37.9%	0.95×	2.77

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.2%	49.0%	1.03×	1.99
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.8%	51.0%	0.98×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.6%	52.0%	53.4%	0.97×	1.92
Odd goals in 1st half	45.4%	48.0%	46.6%	1.03×	2.08

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.4%	51.7%	51.8%	1.00×	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.6%	48.3%	48.2%	1.00×	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.0%	93.0%	95.1%	0.98×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	91.7%	93.0%	93.3%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	81.7%	81.0%	82.9%	0.98×	1.24
Over 1.5 goals	79.9%	78.2%	81.9%	0.95×	1.28
Under 3.5 goals	65.0%	65.2%	64.6%	1.01×	1.53
Over 2.5 goals	57.4%	57.5%	58.5%	0.98×	1.74
Under 2.5 goals	42.6%	42.5%	41.5%	1.02×	2.36
Over 3.5 goals	35.0%	34.8%	35.4%	0.98×	2.87
Under 1.5 goals	20.1%	21.8%	18.1%	1.21×	4.58
Over 4.5 goals	18.3%	19.0%	17.1%	1.11×	5.26
Over 5.5 goals	8.3%	7.0%	6.7%	1.04×	14.23
Under 0.5 goals	5.0%	7.0%	4.9%	1.44×	14.31

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.5%	97.2%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	90.8%	92.8%	92.5%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	78.1%	76.5%	79.1%	0.97×	1.31
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	74.1%	72.3%	76.4%	0.95×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	54.9%	53.0%	53.9%	0.98×	1.89
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	45.1%	47.0%	46.1%	1.02×	2.13
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	25.9%	27.7%	23.6%	1.18×	3.60
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	21.9%	23.5%	20.9%	1.12×	4.26
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	9.2%	7.2%	7.5%	0.96×	13.86
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.5%	2.8%	2.9%	0.94×	36.23

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	88.1%	88.1%	87.4%	1.01×	1.14
Over 0.5 in 1st half	69.6%	68.6%	72.4%	0.95×	1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half	66.6%	68.5%	64.1%	1.07×	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	33.4%	31.5%	35.9%	0.88×	3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half	30.4%	31.4%	27.6%	1.14×	3.19
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.9%	11.9%	12.6%	0.94×	8.41

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	83.4%	82.0%	84.7%	0.97×	1.22
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	73.2%	76.2%	75.9%	1.00×	1.31
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	46.4%	51.7%	45.8%	1.13×	1.93
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	53.6%	48.3%	54.2%	0.89×	2.07
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	26.8%	23.8%	24.1%	0.99×	4.20
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	16.6%	18.0%	15.3%	1.18×	5.57

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton not to score in both halves	81.2%	81.6%	76.8%	1.06×	1.23
Newcastle United not to score in both halves	66.9%	66.9%	68.7%	0.97×	1.49
Newcastle United to score in both halves	33.1%	33.1%	31.3%	1.06×	3.02
Everton to score in both halves	18.8%	18.4%	23.2%	0.79×	5.43

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	59.0%	57.9%	58.2%	0.99×	1.73
Only Newcastle United scores	23.0%	22.8%	20.3%	1.12×	4.38
Only Everton scores	12.9%	10.9%	16.8%	0.65×	9.20
Neither team scores	5.0%	6.6%	4.9%	1.35×	15.19

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	22.5%	21.6%	23.5%	0.92×	4.63
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	21.6%	23.2%	0.93×	4.63
Exactly 4 goals	16.7%	18.6%	18.4%	1.01×	5.39
Exactly 1 goals	15.1%	18.5%	13.3%	1.39×	5.40
Exactly 5 goals	10.0%	12.3%	10.4%	1.18×	8.12
6 or more goals	8.3%	7.6%	6.7%	1.13×	13.12
Exactly 0 goals	5.0%	7.6%	4.9%	1.56×	13.16

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.2%	37.3%	36.5%	1.02×	2.68
No goals in 1st half	30.4%	32.5%	27.6%	1.18×	3.08
2 goals in 1st half	21.6%	21.6%	23.4%	0.92×	4.63
3+ goals in 1st half	11.9%	11.9%	12.6%	0.94×	8.42

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	53.6%	47.6%	54.2%	0.88×	2.10
1 goal in 2nd half	29.8%	28.5%	30.6%	0.93×	3.50
No goals in 2nd half	16.6%	18.3%	15.3%	1.20×	5.46

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton not to win both halves	94.6%	93.5%	91.2%	1.03×	1.07
Newcastle United not to win both halves	85.3%	87.5%	86.5%	1.01×	1.14
Newcastle United to win both halves	14.7%	12.5%	13.5%	0.93×	7.98
Everton to win both halves	5.4%	6.5%	8.8%	0.74×	15.36

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United to win either half	62.5%	63.7%	59.0%	1.08×	1.57
Everton to win neither half	56.1%	59.4%	51.5%	1.16×	1.68
Everton to win either half	43.9%	40.6%	48.5%	0.84×	2.47
Newcastle United to win neither half	37.5%	36.3%	41.0%	0.89×	2.76

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Everton not to win to nil	87.1%	88.2%	83.2%	1.06×	1.13
Newcastle United not to win to nil	77.0%	77.2%	79.7%	0.97×	1.30
Newcastle United to win to nil	23.0%	22.8%	20.3%	1.12×	4.38
Everton to win to nil	12.9%	11.8%	16.8%	0.70×	8.46

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	23.7%	23.9%	24.7%	0.97×	4.19
Newcastle United by 1	22.2%	23.9%	19.2%	1.24×	4.19
Everton by 1	16.4%	17.0%	16.6%	1.03×	5.87
Newcastle United by 2	14.6%	11.7%	13.3%	0.88×	8.52
Newcastle United by 3+	11.1%	11.7%	10.8%	1.09×	8.55
Everton by 2	8.0%	7.0%	9.3%	0.76×	14.21
Everton by 3+	4.0%	2.8%	6.6%	0.43×	35.15