Newcastle United v Hull — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 September 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627

Premier League xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Newcastle United

2–1

1.38 – 1.16 xG

Hull

Shots

12 – 21

On target

5 – 4

Shots in box

9 – 12

xG per shot

0.11 – 0.06

Set-piece xG

0.84 – 0.08

Goals − xG

+0.62 – -0.16

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 19 Sep, 11:09 · 3h before kick-off

Newcastle United win

45.6%

Draw

26.3%

Hull win

28.0%

462628

Raw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.5%
1-0 11.6%
2-1 9.0%
0-1 8.6%
2-0 8.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	46.1%	Under 2.5	53.9%
BTTS yes	50.3%	BTTS no	49.7%
Newcastle United 1+	76.4%	Newcastle United 2+	42.4%
Hull 1+	65.8%	Hull 2+	29.1%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.07. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

86/100

Data quality

80/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

★ Most likely to land

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

Newcastle United carry the stronger rating, 1623 Elo against 1553.
Newcastle United have created 1.38 xG a match over their last five while Hull have allowed 1.45.
At home Newcastle United average 1.85 xG a match.

Risk factors

Hull have only 4 matches on record.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Newcastle United have an estimated 45.6% win probability, against 28.0% for Hull and 26.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.45 for Newcastle United and 1.07 for Hull.

Why Newcastle United

Newcastle United carry the stronger rating, 1623 Elo against 1553. Newcastle United have created 1.38 xG a match over their last five while Hull have allowed 1.45. At home Newcastle United average 1.85 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.3%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Hull can win

Hull have created 1.14 xG a match over their last five while Newcastle United have allowed 1.82. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. Away from home Hull average 1.13 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Newcastle United were missing 0.83 expected goal involvements a match against 0.15.

Key players

Newcastle United's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Bruno Guimarães (0.31), Nick Woltemade (0.30), Yoane Wissa (0.24). Hull's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Oliver McBurnie (0.43), Regan Slater (0.20), Mohamed Belloumi (0.18).

Availability

2 of Newcastle United's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Newcastle United's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Newcastle United: 49% possession, 9.6 shots a match, 19.4 faced, 0.25 xG a match from set pieces. Hull: 30% possession, 9.5 shots a match, 14.2 faced, 0.57 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-19 13:53 · team_stats 2026-09-19 06:04 · availability 2026-09-19 15:09 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Newcastle United are the model's most likely outcome at 45.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.5%. Confidence 86/100, data quality 80/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Newcastle United have scored 14 from 12.7 expected and conceded 18 from 17.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

DWLDWDLWLL last 10 scored 14 from 12.7 xG conceded 18 from 17.2 xG

Hull are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWDDLDL last 7 scored 8 from 7.4 xG conceded 7 from 12.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	462628	1.45–1.07	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
dc-goals	253342	0.85–1.18	1-1 14%	33%	41%	Away ✗
dc-xg	502525	1.63–1.08	1-1 12%	51%	53%	Home ✓
dc-xg-oos	502526	1.61–1.09	1-1 12%	51%	53%	Home ✓
deep	502526	1.61–1.09	1-1 12%	51%	53%	Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United to win	49.6%	47.2%	42.8%	1.10×	2.12
Hull to win	25.6%	27.9%	32.4%	0.86×	3.59
Draw	24.8%	24.5%	24.9%	0.98×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United & not both score	27.1%	25.1%	20.1%	1.25×	3.98
Newcastle United & both teams score	22.6%	21.8%	22.8%	0.96×	4.58
Draw & both teams score	18.1%	18.0%	20.0%	0.90×	5.57
Hull & not both score	13.2%	13.3%	16.9%	0.79×	7.52
Hull & both teams score	12.4%	13.3%	15.6%	0.85×	7.53
Draw & not both score	6.7%	8.3%	5.0%	1.67×	12.00

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United & over 1.5	38.8%	34.8%	36.5%	0.96×	2.87
Newcastle United & under 3.5	33.8%	30.8%	26.6%	1.16×	3.25
Newcastle United & over 2.5	30.0%	30.8%	30.0%	1.02×	3.25
Newcastle United & under 2.5	19.6%	18.0%	12.9%	1.40×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	18.5%	18.0%	16.3%	1.10×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	18.5%	18.0%	16.3%	1.10×	5.56
Hull & under 3.5	19.1%	18.0%	21.7%	0.83×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	18.1%	18.0%	20.0%	0.90×	5.56
Hull & over 1.5	18.3%	18.0%	25.6%	0.70×	5.56
Newcastle United & over 3.5	15.8%	18.0%	16.3%	1.10×	5.56
Hull & over 2.5	14.3%	12.9%	20.1%	0.64×	7.77
Newcastle United & under 1.5	10.9%	12.9%	6.4%	2.00×	7.77
Hull & under 2.5	11.3%	12.9%	12.4%	1.03×	7.77
Hull & under 1.5	7.3%	7.9%	6.9%	1.14×	12.62
Draw & under 1.5	6.7%	7.9%	5.0%	1.59×	12.62
Draw & over 2.5	6.3%	7.9%	8.6%	0.92×	12.62
Draw & over 3.5	6.3%	7.9%	8.6%	0.92×	12.62
Hull & over 3.5	6.5%	7.9%	10.7%	0.74×	12.62

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United (1UP)	64.1%	63.2%	61.9%	1.02×	1.58
Hull (1UP)	43.1%	39.0%	51.5%	0.76×	2.57

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United (2UP)	49.6%	49.6%	44.6%	1.11×	2.02
Hull (2UP)	25.6%	24.9%	34.6%	0.72×	4.02

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United to win 2nd half	39.7%	36.5%	36.1%	1.01×	2.74
2nd half drawn	35.3%	36.3%	31.1%	1.17×	2.75
Hull to win 2nd half	25.0%	23.3%	32.8%	0.71×	4.30

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hull under 1.5 in 2nd half	86.0%	87.0%	79.8%	1.09×	1.15
Hull under 0.5 in 2nd half	51.9%	53.2%	42.4%	1.26×	1.88
Hull over 0.5 in 2nd half	48.1%	46.8%	57.6%	0.81×	2.14
Hull over 1.5 in 2nd half	14.0%	13.0%	20.2%	0.64×	7.68

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United under 1.5 in 2nd half	76.8%	76.2%	75.5%	1.01×	1.31
Newcastle United over 0.5 in 2nd half	59.8%	58.4%	58.3%	1.00×	1.71
Newcastle United under 0.5 in 2nd half	40.2%	41.6%	41.7%	1.00×	2.40
Newcastle United over 1.5 in 2nd half	23.2%	23.8%	24.5%	0.97×	4.20

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hull (+2.5)	89.1%	88.5%	89.3%	0.99×	1.13
Newcastle United (+0.5)	74.4%	73.7%	67.6%	1.09×	1.36
Hull (+1.5)	73.9%	73.7%	76.1%	0.97×	1.36
Hull (+0.5)	50.4%	52.5%	57.2%	0.92×	1.91
Newcastle United (-0.5)	49.6%	47.5%	42.8%	1.11×	2.10
Newcastle United (-1.5)	26.1%	26.3%	23.9%	1.10×	3.80
Hull (-0.5)	25.6%	26.3%	32.4%	0.81×	3.80
Newcastle United (-2.5)	10.9%	11.5%	10.7%	1.07×	8.70

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hull to concede	80.1%	81.4%	78.2%	1.04×	1.23
Hull clean sheet	19.9%	18.6%	21.8%	0.85×	5.37

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hull to concede in 1st half	50.4%	50.2%	51.3%	0.98×	1.99
Hull clean sheet in 1st half	49.6%	49.8%	48.7%	1.02×	2.01

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hull to concede in 2nd half	59.8%	58.0%	58.3%	1.00×	1.72
Hull clean sheet in 2nd half	40.2%	42.0%	41.7%	1.01×	2.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hull under 3.5 goals	97.5%	97.5%	94.5%	1.03×	1.03
Hull under 2.5 goals	90.3%	92.3%	84.9%	1.09×	1.08
Hull under 1.5 goals	70.4%	71.8%	60.4%	1.19×	1.39
Hull over 0.5 goals	66.2%	67.9%	75.0%	0.91×	1.47
Hull under 0.5 goals	33.8%	32.1%	25.0%	1.28×	3.12
Hull over 1.5 goals	29.6%	28.2%	39.6%	0.71×	3.55
Hull over 2.5 goals	9.7%	7.7%	15.1%	0.51×	12.97
Hull over 3.5 goals	2.5%	2.5%	5.5%	0.46×	39.89

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hull under 1.5 in 1st half	93.0%	94.1%	89.1%	1.06×	1.06
Hull under 0.5 in 1st half	65.0%	67.9%	59.3%	1.15×	1.47
Hull over 0.5 in 1st half	35.0%	32.1%	40.7%	0.79×	3.12
Hull over 1.5 in 1st half	7.0%	5.9%	10.9%	0.54×	17.01

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hull scores equally in both	44.0%	44.2%	37.6%	1.17×	2.26
Hull scores more in 2nd half	35.4%	36.4%	40.5%	0.90×	2.75
Hull scores more in 1st half	20.6%	22.2%	21.9%	1.01×	4.51

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United (away no bet)	66.7%	66.4%	63.3%	1.05×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	33.3%	33.6%	36.8%	0.91×	2.98

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hull even goals	55.7%	56.9%	53.7%	1.06×	1.76
Hull odd goals	44.3%	43.1%	46.3%	0.93×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	85.5%	87.7%	80.0%	1.10×	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	14.5%	12.3%	20.0%	0.62×	8.10

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	63.2%	58.1%	70.2%	0.83×	1.72
Both halves under 1.5 goals	36.8%	41.9%	29.8%	1.41×	2.38

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	55.7%	55.1%	61.4%	0.90×	1.82
Newcastle United to score 2+ in a row	40.0%	38.0%	38.9%	0.98×	2.63
Hull to score 2+ in a row	21.5%	19.6%	29.9%	0.65×	5.11
Either team to score 3+ in a row	20.1%	19.5%	26.1%	0.75×	5.12
Newcastle United to score 3+ in a row	15.1%	16.3%	16.4%	0.99×	6.13
Hull to score 3+ in a row	5.3%	5.6%	10.2%	0.56×	17.74

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.8%	11.5%	11.4%	1.00×	8.73
1-0	10.9%	11.5%	6.4%	1.78×	8.73
2-0	8.8%	7.4%	6.5%	1.14×	13.50
2-1	9.5%	7.4%	8.9%	0.83×	13.50
0-0	6.7%	7.4%	5.0%	1.48×	13.50
0-1	7.3%	7.4%	6.9%	1.07×	13.50
1-2	6.4%	7.4%	6.9%	1.07×	13.50
2-2	5.2%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.50
3-1	5.1%	7.4%	5.4%	1.37×	13.50
3-0	4.7%	1.7%	5.0%	0.34×	58.33
0-2	4.0%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.33
0-3	1.4%	1.7%	2.5%	0.68×	58.35
0-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.1%	1.56×	58.35
1-3	2.3%	1.7%	3.2%	0.53×	58.34
1-4	0.6%	1.7%	1.4%	1.19×	58.35
2-3	1.9%	1.7%	2.5%	0.70×	58.34
2-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.7%	2.53×	58.35
3-2	2.8%	1.7%	3.0%	0.56×	58.34
3-3	1.0%	1.7%	0.8%	2.25×	58.35
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.5%	3.37×	58.35
4-0	1.9%	1.7%	1.4%	1.27×	58.34
4-1	2.1%	1.7%	2.3%	0.75×	58.34
4-2	1.1%	1.7%	1.4%	1.27×	58.35
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.9%	1.84×	58.35
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.07×	58.35
Any other score	2.9%	1.7%	4.2%	0.41×	58.34

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United (2nd half DNB)	61.4%	61.7%	52.4%	1.18×	1.62
Hull (2nd half DNB)	38.6%	38.3%	47.6%	0.80×	2.61

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United leading at HT (DNB)	65.3%	73.7%	59.4%	1.24×	1.36
Hull leading at HT (DNB)	34.7%	26.3%	40.6%	0.65×	3.80

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United or Hull (12)	75.2%	75.5%	75.1%	1.01×	1.32
Newcastle United or draw (1X)	74.4%	72.1%	67.6%	1.07×	1.39
Hull or draw (X2)	50.4%	52.8%	57.2%	0.92×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United or draw at HT	80.1%	84.2%	75.4%	1.12×	1.19
Hull or draw at HT	62.6%	62.1%	64.0%	0.97×	1.61
Newcastle United or Hull at HT	57.3%	56.8%	60.5%	0.94×	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United or draw (1UP)	74.4%	80.1%	74.3%	1.08×	1.25
Hull or draw (1UP)	50.4%	59.4%	65.4%	0.91×	1.68

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United or draw in 2nd half	75.0%	76.7%	67.2%	1.14×	1.30
Newcastle United or Hull in 2nd half	64.7%	63.7%	68.9%	0.92×	1.57
Hull or draw in 2nd half	60.3%	63.5%	63.9%	0.99×	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	63.0%	61.7%	56.9%	1.08×	1.62
Neither half drawn	37.0%	38.3%	43.1%	0.89×	2.61

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United (DNB)	66.0%	67.2%	56.9%	1.18×	1.49
Hull (DNB)	34.0%	32.8%	43.1%	0.76×	3.05

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United to score first	55.8%	61.9%	51.8%	1.20×	1.62
Hull to score first	37.5%	32.7%	43.3%	0.75×	3.06
No goal scored	6.7%	7.5%	5.0%	1.51×	13.26

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	53.0%	51.3%	58.1%	0.88×	1.95
Not both teams to score	47.0%	48.7%	41.9%	1.16×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	41.2%	41.6%	46.8%	0.89×	2.41
Not both score & under 2.5	37.6%	38.4%	30.1%	1.27×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	11.8%	12.4%	11.4%	1.08×	8.10
Not both score & over 2.5	9.4%	8.3%	11.8%	0.70×	12.03

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	85.8%	85.6%	82.1%	1.04×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	14.2%	14.4%	17.9%	0.80×	6.95

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	71.2%	74.0%	68.8%	1.08×	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	28.8%	26.0%	31.2%	0.83×	3.85

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	58.7%	59.7%	55.8%	1.07×	1.68
Both score 2nd half only	23.7%	20.8%	24.5%	0.85×	4.81
Both score 1st half only	12.6%	10.6%	13.0%	0.81×	9.42
Both score in both halves	5.1%	6.9%	6.8%	1.02×	14.52

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	82.4%	82.6%	80.3%	1.03×	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	17.6%	17.4%	19.7%	0.88×	5.76

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	53.6%	53.3%	61.9%	0.86×	1.88
A half without a goal	46.4%	46.7%	38.1%	1.23×	2.14

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.6%	47.2%	46.4%	1.02×	2.12
4-6 goals	26.5%	26.6%	32.8%	0.81×	3.76
0-1 goals	24.9%	22.9%	18.2%	1.26×	4.37
7+ goals	2.0%	1.8%	2.8%	0.65×	54.98

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hull to score exactly 1	36.7%	35.9%	35.4%	1.01×	2.79
Hull to score exactly 0	33.8%	33.8%	25.0%	1.35×	2.96
Hull to score exactly 2	19.9%	19.6%	24.6%	0.80×	5.11
Hull to score 3+	9.7%	8.6%	15.1%	0.57×	11.65

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United to score exactly 1	32.1%	32.6%	29.4%	1.11×	3.07
Newcastle United to score exactly 2	25.9%	26.5%	26.1%	1.01×	3.77
Newcastle United to score 3+	22.0%	23.3%	22.8%	1.02×	4.29
Newcastle United to score exactly 0	19.9%	18.8%	21.8%	0.86×	5.31

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	42.7%	43.2%	39.5%	1.09×	2.32
Newcastle United leading at HT	37.4%	37.9%	36.0%	1.05×	2.64
Hull leading at HT	19.9%	15.8%	24.6%	0.64×	6.35

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United -1: 2	50.4%	52.2%	—	—	1.92
Newcastle United -1: 1	26.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Newcastle United -1: X	23.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hull (0:1)	50.4%	51.4%	57.2%	0.90×	1.95
Newcastle United (0:1)	26.1%	27.0%	23.9%	1.13×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	23.6%	24.2%	19.0%	1.27×	4.14

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hull (0:2)	73.9%	75.8%	76.1%	0.99×	1.32
Draw (0:2)	15.1%	15.2%	13.2%	1.15×	6.58
Newcastle United (0:2)	10.9%	11.0%	10.7%	1.02×	9.12

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hull (0:3)	89.1%	90.7%	89.3%	1.02×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	7.2%	5.8%	7.5%	0.77×	17.29
Newcastle United (0:3)	3.8%	2.4%	3.3%	0.72×	42.19

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hull (0:4)	96.2%	98.1%	96.7%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.7%	1.2%	2.0%	0.60×	82.61
Newcastle United (0:4)	1.1%	1.2%	1.4%	0.89×	82.80

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United (1:0)	74.4%	72.4%	67.6%	1.07×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	15.9%	17.1%	16.7%	1.02×	5.87
Hull (1:0)	9.7%	6.9%	15.8%	0.44×	14.42

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United (2:0)	90.3%	93.9%	84.2%	1.12×	1.07
Draw (2:0)	6.8%	6.4%	9.3%	0.69×	15.62
Hull (2:0)	2.9%	2.3%	6.6%	0.35×	43.46

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.4%	48.2%	49.6%	0.97×	2.07
1st half highest scoring	27.5%	26.4%	25.8%	1.02×	3.79
Halves equal	25.1%	26.3%	24.7%	1.07×	3.80

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United to concede	66.2%	66.6%	75.0%	0.89×	1.50
Newcastle United clean sheet	33.8%	33.4%	25.0%	1.34×	2.99

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United clean sheet in 1st half	65.0%	68.1%	59.3%	1.15×	1.47
Newcastle United to concede in 1st half	35.0%	31.9%	40.7%	0.78×	3.13

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United clean sheet in 2nd half	51.9%	53.2%	42.4%	1.25×	1.88
Newcastle United to concede in 2nd half	48.1%	46.8%	57.6%	0.81×	2.14

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United under 3.5 goals	91.9%	92.2%	91.6%	1.01×	1.08
Newcastle United over 0.5 goals	80.1%	82.2%	78.2%	1.05×	1.22
Newcastle United under 2.5 goals	78.0%	77.7%	77.2%	1.01×	1.29
Newcastle United under 1.5 goals	52.1%	53.2%	51.2%	1.04×	1.88
Newcastle United over 1.5 goals	47.9%	46.8%	48.8%	0.96×	2.14
Newcastle United over 2.5 goals	22.0%	22.3%	22.8%	0.98×	4.49
Newcastle United under 0.5 goals	19.9%	17.8%	21.8%	0.82×	5.61
Newcastle United over 3.5 goals	8.1%	7.8%	8.4%	0.93×	12.86

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United under 1.5 in 1st half	84.4%	84.5%	84.5%	1.00×	1.18
Newcastle United over 0.5 in 1st half	50.4%	50.1%	51.3%	0.98×	2.00
Newcastle United under 0.5 in 1st half	49.6%	49.9%	48.7%	1.02×	2.00
Newcastle United over 1.5 in 1st half	15.6%	15.5%	15.5%	1.00×	6.44

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United scores more in 2nd half	38.6%	37.6%	36.0%	1.04×	2.66
Newcastle United scores equally in both	34.9%	33.1%	37.8%	0.88×	3.02
Newcastle United scores more in 1st half	26.6%	27.8%	26.2%	1.06×	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hull (home no bet)	50.8%	51.4%	56.6%	0.91×	1.95
Draw (home no bet)	49.2%	48.6%	43.4%	1.12×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United even goals	52.0%	50.7%	54.1%	0.94×	1.97
Newcastle United odd goals	48.0%	49.3%	45.9%	1.07×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	32.3%	32.8%	27.8%	1.18×	3.05
HT 1-0	22.6%	24.0%	21.6%	1.11×	4.16
HT 0-1	13.9%	10.8%	14.9%	0.73×	9.26
HT 1-1	9.7%	7.1%	10.9%	0.65×	14.05
HT 2-0	7.9%	7.1%	8.0%	0.88×	14.07
Any other HT score	4.4%	2.3%	5.3%	0.44×	42.61
HT 2-1	3.4%	2.3%	3.7%	0.63×	42.68
HT 0-2	3.0%	2.3%	4.5%	0.52×	42.71
HT 1-2	2.1%	2.3%	3.0%	0.79×	42.77
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.3%	1.0%	2.30×	42.87

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United at HT / Newcastle United at FT	30.2%	32.7%	26.1%	1.25×	3.06
Draw at HT / Newcastle United at FT	17.0%	16.7%	13.9%	1.21×	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.1%	16.7%	13.7%	1.22×	5.98
Hull at HT / Hull at FT	13.0%	12.7%	17.0%	0.74×	7.90
Draw at HT / Hull at FT	10.7%	12.6%	12.1%	1.05×	7.91
Newcastle United at HT / Draw at FT	5.3%	6.1%	6.5%	0.93×	16.44
Hull at HT / Draw at FT	4.4%	3.4%	4.8%	0.71×	29.03
Hull at HT / Newcastle United at FT	2.4%	3.4%	3.0%	1.16×	29.11
Newcastle United at HT / Hull at FT	1.9%	3.4%	3.5%	0.99×	29.13

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United to score last	55.8%	56.4%	50.0%	1.13×	1.77
Hull to score last	37.5%	38.5%	45.1%	0.85×	2.60
No goal scored	6.7%	7.5%	5.0%	1.51×	13.26

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.3%	92.6%	95.0%	0.97×	1.08
Newcastle United to lead by 1 at any time	64.1%	61.3%	61.9%	0.99×	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	46.8%	44.1%	50.6%	0.87×	2.27
Hull to lead by 1 at any time	43.1%	39.1%	51.5%	0.76×	2.56
Newcastle United to lead by 2 at any time	32.4%	29.6%	29.7%	1.00×	3.38
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	17.2%	15.1%	21.2%	0.71×	6.64
Hull to lead by 2 at any time	14.7%	10.5%	21.2%	0.50×	9.50
Newcastle United to lead by 3 at any time	13.2%	10.5%	13.1%	0.80×	9.53
Hull to lead by 3 at any time	4.0%	1.6%	8.1%	0.20×	61.31

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.6%	87.4%	88.4%	0.99×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.6%	78.7%	77.9%	1.01×	1.27
2-6 goals	73.1%	72.4%	79.1%	0.92×	1.38
2-5 goals	69.5%	68.8%	75.2%	0.92×	1.45
1-3 goals	64.7%	63.4%	59.6%	1.06×	1.58
2-4 goals	61.4%	63.4%	64.7%	0.98×	1.58
3-6 goals	48.6%	48.6%	55.8%	0.87×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.6%	48.5%	46.4%	1.05×	2.06
3-5 goals	44.9%	43.5%	51.9%	0.84×	2.30
1-2 goals	42.7%	43.5%	36.5%	1.19×	2.30
3-4 goals	36.9%	39.2%	41.5%	0.95×	2.55
4-6 goals	26.5%	30.3%	32.8%	0.92×	3.30
4-5 goals	22.9%	24.5%	28.9%	0.85×	4.08
5-6 goals	11.6%	14.8%	14.5%	1.02×	6.75
7+ goals	2.0%	2.5%	2.8%	0.91×	39.27

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United never behind	50.2%	62.0%	48.5%	1.28×	1.61
Hull never behind	29.2%	30.2%	38.1%	0.79×	3.31

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.8%	50.9%	49.0%	1.04×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.1%	51.0%	0.96×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.2%	57.1%	53.4%	1.07×	1.75
Odd goals in 1st half	44.8%	42.9%	46.6%	0.92×	2.33

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.2%	52.0%	52.0%	1.00×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.8%	48.0%	48.0%	1.00×	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.3%	92.2%	93.3%	0.99×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	93.3%	92.2%	95.0%	0.97×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	86.3%	87.6%	82.8%	1.06×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	75.1%	77.3%	81.8%	0.95×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	71.4%	72.4%	64.5%	1.12×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	50.6%	52.5%	58.5%	0.90×	1.91
Under 2.5 goals	49.4%	47.5%	41.5%	1.15×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	28.6%	27.6%	35.5%	0.78×	3.62
Under 1.5 goals	24.9%	22.7%	18.2%	1.25×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	13.7%	12.4%	17.2%	0.72×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	6.7%	7.8%	5.0%	1.55×	12.89
Over 5.5 goals	5.7%	7.8%	6.7%	1.16×	12.90

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.9%	97.2%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.9%	92.4%	92.5%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	83.9%	81.1%	79.0%	1.03×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	67.0%	67.5%	76.3%	0.88×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	63.4%	61.9%	53.8%	1.15×	1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	36.6%	38.1%	46.2%	0.83×	2.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	33.0%	32.6%	23.7%	1.37×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	16.1%	18.9%	21.0%	0.90×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.2%	7.6%	7.5%	1.02×	13.15
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.1%	2.8%	2.9%	0.96×	35.81

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.4%	89.0%	87.2%	1.02×	1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half	68.8%	68.7%	64.0%	1.07×	1.46
Over 0.5 in 1st half	67.7%	68.7%	72.3%	0.95×	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	32.3%	31.3%	27.8%	1.13×	3.19
Over 1.5 in 1st half	31.2%	31.3%	36.0%	0.87×	3.20
Over 2.5 in 1st half	10.6%	11.0%	12.8%	0.86×	9.06

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	79.2%	79.8%	76.0%	1.05×	1.25
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	79.1%	79.8%	84.7%	0.94×	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	53.6%	53.1%	45.8%	1.16×	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	46.4%	46.9%	54.2%	0.86×	2.13
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	20.9%	20.2%	15.3%	1.32×	4.95
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	20.8%	20.2%	24.0%	0.84×	4.95

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hull not to score in both halves	83.2%	84.2%	76.7%	1.10×	1.19
Newcastle United not to score in both halves	69.8%	70.0%	68.6%	1.02×	1.43
Newcastle United to score in both halves	30.2%	30.0%	31.4%	0.96×	3.33
Hull to score in both halves	16.8%	15.8%	23.4%	0.68×	6.33

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	53.0%	53.8%	58.1%	0.93×	1.86
Only Newcastle United scores	27.1%	26.0%	20.1%	1.29×	3.84
Only Hull scores	13.2%	11.0%	16.9%	0.65×	9.07
Neither team scores	6.7%	7.1%	5.0%	1.43×	14.03

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.5%	22.6%	23.4%	0.97×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.0%	22.6%	23.1%	0.98×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	18.2%	17.5%	13.3%	1.31×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	14.9%	12.1%	18.4%	0.66×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	8.0%	7.6%	10.6%	0.72×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	6.7%	7.6%	5.0%	1.53×	13.13
6 or more goals	5.7%	7.6%	6.7%	1.14×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.5%	36.9%	36.4%	1.01×	2.71
No goals in 1st half	32.3%	36.1%	27.8%	1.30×	2.77
2 goals in 1st half	20.6%	21.6%	23.3%	0.93×	4.63
3+ goals in 1st half	10.6%	10.9%	12.8%	0.86×	9.14

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	46.4%	45.3%	54.2%	0.84×	2.21
1 goal in 2nd half	32.7%	33.3%	30.5%	1.09×	3.00
No goals in 2nd half	20.9%	22.4%	15.3%	1.47×	4.46

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hull not to win both halves	95.0%	97.2%	91.2%	1.07×	1.03
Newcastle United not to win both halves	85.2%	87.9%	86.6%	1.02×	1.14
Newcastle United to win both halves	14.8%	12.1%	13.4%	0.90×	8.29
Hull to win both halves	5.0%	2.8%	8.8%	0.32×	35.72

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United to win either half	62.2%	64.8%	58.7%	1.10×	1.54
Hull to win neither half	60.1%	64.7%	51.4%	1.26×	1.55
Hull to win either half	39.9%	35.3%	48.6%	0.73×	2.84
Newcastle United to win neither half	37.8%	35.2%	41.3%	0.85×	2.84

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hull not to win to nil	86.8%	88.1%	83.1%	1.06×	1.14
Newcastle United not to win to nil	72.9%	75.4%	79.9%	0.94×	1.33
Newcastle United to win to nil	27.1%	24.7%	20.1%	1.22×	4.06
Hull to win to nil	13.2%	11.9%	16.9%	0.70×	8.42

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	24.8%	24.1%	24.9%	0.97×	4.15
Newcastle United by 1	23.6%	24.1%	19.0%	1.27×	4.15
Hull by 1	15.9%	17.0%	16.7%	1.02×	5.89
Newcastle United by 2	15.1%	17.0%	13.2%	1.29×	5.89
Newcastle United by 3+	10.9%	11.8%	10.7%	1.10×	8.49
Hull by 2	6.8%	7.2%	9.3%	0.77×	13.88
Hull by 3+	2.9%	2.7%	6.6%	0.41×	36.71

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Newcastle United 1.38 xGHull 1.16 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Newcastle United attacking right Hull attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
2'	Newcastle United	Joe Willock	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Lewis Hall
2'	Newcastle United	Joe Willock	0.11	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Harvey Barnes
5'	Newcastle United	Jacob Murphy	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Lewis Miley
6'	Newcastle United	Lewis Hall	0.10	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Harvey Barnes
15'	Hull	Mohamed Belloumi	0.28	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	—
22'	Hull	Sorba Thomas	0.09	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Matt Crooks
29'	Newcastle United	Jacob Murphy	0.01	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
32'	Newcastle United	Lewis Hall	0.12	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Jacob Murphy
45'	Hull	John Egan	0.01	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	—
46'	Newcastle United	Yoane Wissa	0.76		Right Foot	Saved Shot	—
47'	Hull	Sorba Thomas	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	—
51'	Newcastle United	Sven Botman	0.03	Set Piece	—	Saved Shot	Lewis Hall
52'	Hull	Mohamed Belloumi	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Regan Slater
54'	Newcastle United	Matias Fernandez-Pardo	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Sean Steur
58'	Hull	Mohamed Belloumi	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Oliver McBurnie
62'	Hull	Oliver McBurnie	0.06	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Sorba Thomas
63'	Newcastle United	Harvey Barnes	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Sean Steur
66'	Hull	Mohamed Ali-Cho	0.09	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Mohamed Belloumi
71'	Hull	Regan Slater	0.08	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Mohamed Belloumi
72'	Hull	Mohamed Belloumi	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Tim Iroegbunam
78'	Hull	Lucas Herrington	0.01	Set Piece	—	Blocked Shot	Ryan John Giles
79'	Hull	Mohamed Belloumi	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Lucas Gourna Douath
80'	Hull	Oliver McBurnie	0.12	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Lucas Herrington
80'	Hull	Semi Ajayi	0.01	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Ryan John Giles
81'	Hull	Tim Iroegbunam	0.08	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
83'	Hull	Joe Gelhardt	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Robinio Vaz
83'	Newcastle United	Harvey Barnes	0.04	Set Piece	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Fabian Schär
84'	Hull	Oliver McBurnie	0.05	Open Play	—	Blocked Shot	Mohamed Ali-Cho
89'	Hull	Lucas Gourna Douath	0.01	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
89'	Newcastle United	Yoane Wissa	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Harvey Barnes
90'	Hull	Joe Gelhardt	0.02	From Corner	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Lucas Herrington
90'	Hull	Joe Gelhardt	0.03	From Corner	Left Foot	Missed Shot	—
94'	Hull	Tim Iroegbunam	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Mohamed Ali-Cho

Players