Newcastle United v Hull — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 19 September 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 11.3%
- 1-0 10.6%
- 2-1 9.7%
- 2-0 9.2%
- 0-1 6.5%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 52.7% | Under 2.5 | 47.3% |
| BTTS yes | 53.7% | BTTS no | 46.3% |
| Newcastle United 1+ | 82.2% | Newcastle United 2+ | 51.4% |
| Hull 1+ | 65.4% | Hull 2+ | 28.7% |
Expected goals 1.73 – 1.06. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Newcastle United carry the stronger rating, 1624 Elo against 1548.
- Newcastle United have created 1.43 xG a match over their last five while Hull have allowed 1.48.
- At home Newcastle United average 1.85 xG a match.
Risk factors
- Hull have only 2 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Newcastle United have an estimated 52.9% win probability, against 23.8% for the draw and 23.3% for Hull. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.73 for Newcastle United and 1.06 for Hull.
Why Newcastle United
Newcastle United carry the stronger rating, 1624 Elo against 1548. Newcastle United have created 1.43 xG a match over their last five while Hull have allowed 1.48. At home Newcastle United average 1.85 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 23.8%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why Hull can win
Hull have created 0.98 xG a match over their last five while Newcastle United have allowed 1.91. Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five. Away from home Hull average 0.46 xG a match. They have had 21 days' rest to Newcastle United's 14. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Newcastle United were missing 0.72 expected goal involvements a match against 0.17.
Key players
Newcastle United's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Bruno Guimarães (0.32), Nick Woltemade (0.30), Harvey Barnes (0.23). Hull's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Oliver McBurnie (0.37), Regan Slater (0.20), Mohamed Belloumi (0.18).
Availability
2 of Newcastle United's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Newcastle United's last eleven are new to the club this window.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Newcastle United: 50% possession, 11.0 shots a match, 19.4 faced, 0.20 xG a match from set pieces. Hull: 30% possession, 7.0 shots a match, 16.0 faced, 0.98 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Newcastle United are the model's most likely outcome at 52.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.3%. Confidence 80/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Newcastle United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.73–1.06 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-goals | 0.85–1.18 | 1-1 14% | 33% | 41% | |
| dc-xg | 1.69–1.05 | 1-1 11% | 52% | 53% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.