Newcastle United v Ipswich — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 26 April 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
25 – 4
On target
4 – 0
Shots in box
13 – 2
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.03
Set-piece xG
1.77 – 0.07
Goals − xG
-1.19 – -0.13
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Newcastle United win
64.3%
Draw
19.6%
Ipswich win
16.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Newcastle United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLWDWLDWD last 10
scored 15
from 14.3 xG
conceded 14
from 19.1 xG
Ipswich are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLLLWLL last 10
scored 9
from 10.0 xG
conceded 25
from 20.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.23–1.03 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.82–0.99 | 2-0 9% | 73% | 59% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Newcastle United 4.19 xGIpswich 0.13 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Newcastle United attacking right
Ipswich attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 12' |
Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 23' |
 Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bruno Guimarães |
| 31' |
Ipswich |
Julio Enciso | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sam Morsy |
| 34' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.37 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Harvey Barnes |
| 34' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jacob Murphy |
| 35' |
Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jack Clarke |
| 37' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sandro Tonali |
| 42' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.55 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joe Willock |
| 42' |
Newcastle United |
Joe Willock | 0.14 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Sandro Tonali |
| 44' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dan Burn |
| 44' |
Newcastle United |
Sandro Tonali | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Jacob Murphy |
| 45' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joe Willock |
| 47' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sandro Tonali |
| 47' |
Newcastle United |
Sandro Tonali | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 50' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joe Willock |
| 53' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 54' |
Newcastle United |
Joe Willock | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sandro Tonali |
| 55' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Harvey Barnes |
| 55' |
Newcastle United |
Dan Burn | 0.88 | From Corner | — | Goal | Kieran Trippier |
| 61' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sandro Tonali |
| 70' |
Newcastle United |
Fabian Schär | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sandro Tonali |
| 79' |
Newcastle United |
William Osula | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Goal | Kieran Trippier |
| 86' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Anthony Gordon |
| 86' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kieran Trippier |
| 90' |
Newcastle United |
Anthony Gordon | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nick Pope |
| 91' |
Newcastle United |
William Osula | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bruno Guimarães |
| 93' |
Newcastle United |
Anthony Gordon | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sandro Tonali |
Players
Newcastle United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Burn DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.88 | 0.08 | 0.30 |
| Bruno Guimarães MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.70 | 0.09 | 1.59 |
| Sandro Tonali MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0.13 | 0.40 | 1.16 |
| Kieran Trippier DR | 90 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 1.07 | 0.80 |
| Valentino Livramento DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Nick Pope GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Fabian Schär DC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Alexander Isak FW | 82 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1.73 | 0.00 | 1.09 |
| Harvey Barnes FWL | 82 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.43 | 0.59 |
| Joe Willock MC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.23 | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| Jacob Murphy FWR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.45 | 0.66 |
| Anthony Gordon Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.22 |
| Lewis Miley Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| William Osula Sub | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Callum Wilson Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sven Botman Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
Ipswich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Morsy MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Cameron Burgess DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dara O'Shea DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alex Palmer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jack Taylor MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jacob Greaves DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luke Woolfenden DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Liam Delap FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Julio Enciso AMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ben Godfrey Sub | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jack Clarke ML | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Ben Johnson MR | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| George Hirst Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Conor Chaplin Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Massimo Luongo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |