Newcastle United v Leicester City — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 14 December 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
27 – 4
On target
11 – 1
Shots in box
20 – 2
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
1.06 – 0.04
Goals − xG
+0.03 – -0.19
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Newcastle United win
76.0%
Draw
13.5%
Leicester City win
10.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Newcastle United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLWDWLDWD last 10
scored 15
from 14.3 xG
conceded 14
from 19.1 xG
Leicester City are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLDLLWDWL last 10
scored 8
from 8.8 xG
conceded 18
from 23.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 3.03–1.10 | 3-1 8% | 78% | 63% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Newcastle United 3.97 xGLeicester City 0.19 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Newcastle United attacking right
Leicester City attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Newcastle United |
Anthony Gordon | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Joelinton |
| 7' |
Newcastle United |
Dan Burn | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Anthony Gordon |
| 12' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Lewis Hall |
| 17' |
Newcastle United |
Joelinton | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Anthony Gordon |
| 19' |
 Leicester City |
Bilal El Khannouss | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hamza Choudhury |
| 21' |
Newcastle United |
Dan Burn | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Jacob Murphy |
| 21' |
Newcastle United |
Sandro Tonali | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 24' |
Newcastle United |
Joelinton | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lewis Hall |
| 26' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 26' |
Newcastle United |
Joelinton | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alexander Isak |
| 28' |
Newcastle United |
Valentino Livramento | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sandro Tonali |
| 29' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Anthony Gordon |
| 32' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Bruno Guimarães |
| 33' |
Newcastle United |
Anthony Gordon | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lewis Hall |
| 36' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Joelinton |
| 46' |
Leicester City |
Jamie Vardy | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | James Justin |
| 46' |
Leicester City |
Oliver Skipp | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.76 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Lewis Hall |
| 49' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.90 | Open Play | — | Goal | — |
| 51' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alexander Isak |
| 54' |
Leicester City |
Kasey McAteer | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 56' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jacob Murphy |
| 59' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.25 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Alexander Isak |
| 61' |
Newcastle United |
Sandro Tonali | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 69' |
Newcastle United |
Anthony Gordon | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sean Longstaff |
| 72' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alexander Isak |
| 72' |
Newcastle United |
Sandro Tonali | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 77' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Anthony Gordon |
| 79' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | William Osula |
| 84' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lewis Hall |
| 86' |
Newcastle United |
Lewis Hall | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Harvey Barnes |
Players
Newcastle United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandro Tonali MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.02 | 1.13 |
| Joelinton MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.45 | 1.16 |
| Lewis Hall DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0.13 | 0.91 | 2.37 |
| Dan Burn DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Martin Dubravka GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Fabian Schär DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Anthony Gordon FWL | 83 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.19 | 0.17 | 0.67 |
| Alexander Isak FW | 76 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 1.52 | 0.71 | 2.33 |
| Bruno Guimarães MC | 67 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.81 | 0.12 | 0.43 |
| Jacob Murphy FWR | 67 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.71 | 0.16 | 0.90 |
| Valentino Livramento DR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Harvey Barnes Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.13 | 0.31 |
| Kieran Trippier Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Sean Longstaff Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.00 |
| William Osula Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Joe Willock Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Leicester City
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kasey McAteer AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Oliver Skipp DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Conor Coady DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| James Justin DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| Victor Kristiansen DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jannik Vestergaard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Bilal El Khannouss AMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| Jamie Vardy FW | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Hamza Choudhury DMC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| Stephy Mavididi AML | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Mads Hermansen GK | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Danny Ward Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Patson Daka Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Facundo Buonanotte Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Caleb Okoli Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bobby Reid Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |