Newcastle United v Liverpool — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 25 August 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 5
On target
3 – 4
Shots in box
8 – 3
xG per shot
0.20 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.50 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+0.04 – +2.35
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Newcastle United win
42.4%
Draw
22.5%
Liverpool win
35.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Newcastle United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLWDWLDWD last 10
scored 15
from 14.3 xG
conceded 14
from 19.1 xG
Liverpool are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLDLDDDW last 10
scored 19
from 16.2 xG
conceded 15
from 17.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.80–1.63 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.69–1.94 | 1-1 9% | 70% | 70% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Newcastle United 1.96 xGLiverpool 0.65 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Newcastle United attacking right
Liverpool attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12' |
 Liverpool |
Florian Wirtz | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Hugo Ekitike |
| 16' |
 Newcastle United |
Sandro Tonali | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 27' |
Newcastle United |
Anthony Gordon | 0.43 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Harvey Barnes |
| 28' |
Newcastle United |
Anthony Gordon | 0.62 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 28' |
Newcastle United |
Anthony Gordon | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Anthony Elanga |
| 34' |
Liverpool |
Ryan Gravenberch | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Cody Gakpo |
| 38' |
Newcastle United |
Sandro Tonali | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Anthony Gordon |
| 39' |
Newcastle United |
Dan Burn | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Kieran Trippier |
| 45' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hugo Ekitike |
| 45' |
Liverpool |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Cody Gakpo |
| 56' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.33 | Open Play | — | Goal | Valentino Livramento |
| 63' |
Newcastle United |
Joelinton | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Dan Burn |
| 87' |
Newcastle United |
William Osula | 0.40 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 92' |
Newcastle United |
Lewis Miley | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jacob Ramsey |
| 99' |
Liverpool |
Rio Ngumoha | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mohamed Salah |
Players
Newcastle United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Guimarães MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
| Dan Burn DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Anthony Elanga FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Valentino Livramento DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.76 |
| Nick Pope GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fabian Schär DC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joelinton MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Harvey Barnes FWL | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| Kieran Trippier DR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Sandro Tonali MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Anthony Gordon FW | 47 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.10 | 0.03 | 1.13 |
| Lewis Miley Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| William Osula Sub | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jacob Ramsey Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Lewis Hall Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Malick Thiaw Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Liverpool
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Gakpo AML | 90 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| Ryan Gravenberch DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Milos Kerkez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Virgil van Dijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Curtis Jones DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Dominik Szoboszlai DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Alisson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Mohamed Salah AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 0.46 |
| Ibrahima Konaté DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Hugo Ekitike FW | 85 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.10 | 0.24 |
| Florian Wirtz AMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Federico Chiesa Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Conor Bradley Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Rio Ngumoha Sub | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Harvey Elliott Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Wataru Endo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |