Newcastle United v Manchester United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 13 April 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 9
On target
6 – 5
Shots in box
10 – 5
xG per shot
0.22 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.12 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+1.36 – +0.21
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Newcastle United win
46.8%
Draw
25.6%
Manchester United win
27.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Newcastle United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLWDWLDWD last 10
scored 15
from 14.3 xG
conceded 14
from 19.1 xG
Manchester United have scored 20 from 20.9 expected and conceded 13 from 14.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWWWDWWLWD last 10
scored 20
from 20.9 xG
conceded 13
from 14.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.57–1.14 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.16–1.28 | 2-1 10% | 67% | 64% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Newcastle United 2.64 xGManchester United 0.79 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Newcastle United attacking right
Manchester United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Manchester United |
Manuel Ugarte | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 3' |
 Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kieran Trippier |
| 11' |
Manchester United |
Joshua Zirkzee | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 22' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Bruno Guimarães |
| 23' |
Newcastle United |
Sandro Tonali | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Alexander Isak |
| 27' |
Newcastle United |
Sandro Tonali | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Valentino Livramento |
| 33' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.52 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 36' |
Manchester United |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Diogo Dalot |
| 38' |
Newcastle United |
Joelinton | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 42' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Kieran Trippier |
| 44' |
Manchester United |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 47' |
Manchester United |
Harry Amass | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.81 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jacob Murphy |
| 60' |
Newcastle United |
Dan Burn | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jacob Murphy |
| 63' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 70' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Dan Burn |
| 74' |
Manchester United |
Manuel Ugarte | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 76' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Joelinton |
| 82' |
Manchester United |
Mason Mount | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Patrick Dorgu |
| 89' |
Manchester United |
Rasmus Højlund | 0.14 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Luke Shaw |
| 93' |
Manchester United |
Rasmus Højlund | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Luke Shaw |
Players
Newcastle United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harvey Barnes FWL | 90 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.18 | 0.00 | 1.18 |
| Sandro Tonali MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Dan Burn DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| Valentino Livramento DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.86 |
| Nick Pope GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fabian Schär DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bruno Guimarães MC | 87 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.09 | 1.30 |
| Joelinton MC | 87 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| Alexander Isak FW | 80 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.61 | 0.30 | 0.97 |
| Jacob Murphy FWR | 80 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.86 | 1.28 |
| Kieran Trippier DR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.38 |
| Emil Krafth Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Callum Wilson Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anthony Gordon Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lewis Miley Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sean Longstaff Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Manchester United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manuel Ugarte MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Victor Lindelöf DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leny Yoro DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Altay Bayindir GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Diogo Dalot DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.27 |
| Christian Eriksen MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Bruno Fernandes AMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| Noussair Mazraoui DC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joshua Zirkzee FW | 57 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Alejandro Garnacho AMC | 57 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Harry Amass DML | 57 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Rasmus Højlund Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Mason Mount Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Patrick Dorgu Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Luke Shaw Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Kobbie Mainoo Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |