Newcastle United v Nottingham Forest — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 5 October 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 5
On target
9 – 4
Shots in box
13 – 4
xG per shot
0.22 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
2.01 – 0.08
Goals − xG
-1.92 – -0.34
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Newcastle United win
49.5%
Draw
26.9%
Nottingham Forest win
23.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Newcastle United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLWDWLDWD last 10
scored 15
from 14.3 xG
conceded 14
from 19.1 xG
Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDLDLDD last 10
scored 19
from 15.9 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.53–0.98 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.12–1.24 | 2-1 10% | 65% | 63% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Newcastle United 3.92 xGNottingham Forest 0.34 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Newcastle United attacking right
Nottingham Forest attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10' |
 Newcastle United |
Joelinton | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kieran Trippier |
| 14' |
Newcastle United |
Joelinton | 0.43 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Sven Botman |
| 16' |
Newcastle United |
Joelinton | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 19' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 43' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Anthony Elanga |
| 44' |
Newcastle United |
Joelinton | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nick Woltemade |
| 44' |
Newcastle United |
Sandro Tonali | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bruno Guimarães |
| 48' |
Newcastle United |
Anthony Gordon | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Anthony Elanga |
| 51' |
Newcastle United |
Nick Woltemade | 0.58 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 55' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Dan Ndoye |
| 57' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Dan Burn |
| 61' | Nottingham Forest | Ryan Yates | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Dan Ndoye |
| 72' |
Newcastle United |
Sandro Tonali | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kieran Trippier |
| 73' |
Newcastle United |
Malick Thiaw | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Sandro Tonali |
| 73' |
Newcastle United |
Nick Woltemade | 0.63 | From Corner | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Malick Thiaw |
| 73' |
Newcastle United |
Sven Botman | 0.13 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Joelinton |
| 77' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sandro Tonali |
| 77' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Neco Williams |
| 78' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dilane Bakwa |
| 79' |
Newcastle United |
Malick Thiaw | 0.44 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jacob Murphy |
| 80' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jacob Murphy |
| 83' |
Newcastle United |
Nick Woltemade | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 96' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kieran Trippier |
Players
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Gibbs-White FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Neco Williams DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| Matz Sels GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nikola Milenkovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolò Savona DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jair DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Elliot Anderson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Morato DC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dan Ndoye FWL | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Ryan Yates MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Chris Wood FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Igor Jesus Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Omari Hutchinson Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dilane Bakwa Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
Newcastle United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Woltemade FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.97 | 0.08 | 0.73 |
| Joelinton MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.63 | 0.13 | 0.75 |
| Malick Thiaw DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.47 | 0.63 | 0.58 |
| Sven Botman DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.43 | 0.12 |
| Bruno Guimarães MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.32 |
| Sandro Tonali MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.14 | 0.58 |
| Dan Burn DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| Kieran Trippier DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 1.12 |
| Nick Pope GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anthony Gordon FWL | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Anthony Elanga FWR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| Harvey Barnes Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Jacob Murphy Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.79 | 1.01 |
| Lewis Miley Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| William Osula Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |