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Newcastle United v Southampton — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 17 August 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425

Premier League xG

1–0
0.43 – 1.95 xG
Shots
3 – 19
On target
1 – 3
Shots in box
3 – 12
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 0.24
Goals − xG
+0.57 – -2.15
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.61.21.82.40'15'30'45'60'75'90'Joelinton 44' — goal
Newcastle United 0.43 xGSouthampton 2.15 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

William Smallbone 9' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Set Piece)William Smallbone 13' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Adam Armstrong 21' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Fabian Schär 23' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Set Piece)Ben Brereton Díaz 40' — Missed Shot (0.40 xG, Open Play)Joelinton 44' — Goal (0.36 xG, Open Play)Joelinton 48' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Adam Armstrong 49' — Blocked Shot (0.47 xG, Open Play)Ben Brereton Díaz 49' — Blocked Shot (0.41 xG, Open Play)Adam Armstrong 50' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Adam Armstrong 61' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)William Smallbone 61' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Flynn Downes 62' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Joe Ayodele-Aribo 62' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Kyle Walker-Peters 68' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Adam Armstrong 77' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Kyle Walker-Peters 77' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Samuel Amo-Ameyaw 85' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Carlos Alcaraz 86' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Cameron Archer 89' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Set Piece)William Smallbone 92' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Direct Freekick)Cameron Archer 96' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)
Newcastle United attacking right Southampton attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
9' Southampton William Smallbone 0.12 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot Joe Ayodele-Aribo
13' Southampton William Smallbone 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Jack Stephens
21' Southampton Adam Armstrong 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Taylor Harwood-Bellis
23' Newcastle United Fabian Schär 0.04 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot Anthony Gordon
40' Southampton Ben Brereton Díaz 0.40 Open Play Missed Shot Yukinari Sugawara
44' Newcastle United Joelinton 0.36 Open Play Left Foot Goal Alexander Isak
48' Newcastle United Joelinton 0.04 From Corner Blocked Shot Lewis Hall
49' Southampton Adam Armstrong 0.47 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Joe Ayodele-Aribo
49' Southampton Ben Brereton Díaz 0.41 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
50' Southampton Adam Armstrong 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Ben Brereton Díaz
61' Southampton Adam Armstrong 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
61' Southampton William Smallbone 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
62' Southampton Flynn Downes 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Adam Armstrong
62' Southampton Joe Ayodele-Aribo 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Flynn Downes
68' Southampton Kyle Walker-Peters 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Flynn Downes
77' Southampton Adam Armstrong 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Flynn Downes
77' Southampton Kyle Walker-Peters 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Jan Bednarek
85' Southampton Samuel Amo-Ameyaw 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Tyler Dibling
86' Southampton Carlos Alcaraz 0.04 Open Play Saved Shot Samuel Amo-Ameyaw
89' Southampton Cameron Archer 0.05 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot Carlos Alcaraz
92' Southampton William Smallbone 0.05 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot
96' Southampton Cameron Archer 0.08 Open Play Saved Shot Samuel Edozie

Players

Newcastle United

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Joelinton MC 90 1 0 2 0 0.40 0.00 0.36
Alexander Isak FW 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.36 0.36
Valentino Livramento DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Bruno Guimarães MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Dan Burn DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sean Longstaff MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nick Pope GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lewis Hall DL 74 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.00
Anthony Gordon FWL 74 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.00
Emil Krafth Sub 61 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jacob Murphy FWR 29 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fabian Schär DC 27 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.00
Lloyd Kelly Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Harvey Barnes Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Southampton

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Adam Armstrong FW 90 0 0 5 1 0.70 0.07 0.77
William Smallbone MC 90 0 0 4 0 0.26 0.00 1.21
Flynn Downes MC 90 0 0 1 3 0.07 0.13 1.26
Taylor Harwood-Bellis DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.61
Jack Stephens DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.14
Alex McCarthy GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.47
Kyle Walker-Peters DML 85 0 0 2 0 0.07 0.00 0.55
Jan Bednarek DC 85 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.95
Ben Brereton Díaz FW 75 0 0 2 1 0.81 0.08 0.93
Joe Ayodele-Aribo MC 74 0 0 1 2 0.04 0.59 0.93
Yukinari Sugawara DMR 50 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.40 0.40
Samuel Edozie Sub 40 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.08 0.60
Tyler Dibling Sub 16 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.12
Cameron Archer Sub 15 0 0 2 0 0.13 0.00 0.08
Carlos Alcaraz Sub 5 0 0 1 1 0.04 0.05 0.07
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw Sub 5 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.04 0.07
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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