Newcastle United v Tottenham Hotspur — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 13 April 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 11
On target
5 – 2
Shots in box
16 – 6
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.69 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+0.85 – -0.74
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Newcastle United win
57.7%
Draw
18.5%
Tottenham Hotspur win
23.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Newcastle United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLWDWLDWD last 10
scored 15
from 14.3 xG
conceded 14
from 19.1 xG
Tottenham Hotspur are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDWWDLWLLD last 10
scored 8
from 13.2 xG
conceded 12
from 13.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 2.55–1.63 | 2-1 8% | 79% | 74% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Newcastle United 3.15 xGTottenham Hotspur 0.74 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Newcastle United attacking right
Tottenham Hotspur attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Tottenham Hotspur |
Rodrigo Bentancur | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 2' |
 Newcastle United |
Elliot Anderson | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Jacob Murphy |
| 6' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Timo Werner | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Brennan Johnson |
| 9' |
Newcastle United |
Elliot Anderson | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Anthony Gordon |
| 9' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Anthony Gordon |
| 15' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Timo Werner | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Son Heung-Min |
| 16' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alexander Isak |
| 16' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Timo Werner | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | James Maddison |
| 29' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Anthony Gordon |
| 31' |
Newcastle United |
Anthony Gordon | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 35' |
Newcastle United |
Dan Burn | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Anthony Gordon |
| 36' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Harvey Barnes |
| 40' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Anthony Gordon |
| 41' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
James Maddison | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Son Heung-Min |
| 43' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Anthony Gordon |
| 47' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.08 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Fabian Schär |
| 49' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Timo Werner | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | James Maddison |
| 50' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.54 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Bruno Guimarães |
| 60' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Brennan Johnson | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg |
| 62' |
Newcastle United |
Elliot Anderson | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Harvey Barnes |
| 62' |
Newcastle United |
Elliot Anderson | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Anthony Gordon |
| 64' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Dejan Kulusevski | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | James Maddison |
| 69' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Dejan Kulusevski | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | James Maddison |
| 69' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
James Maddison | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Iyenoma Destiny Udogie |
| 72' |
Newcastle United |
Elliot Anderson | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 75' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Timo Werner |
| 80' |
Newcastle United |
Emil Krafth | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 85' |
Newcastle United |
Anthony Gordon | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Harvey Barnes |
| 86' |
Newcastle United |
Fabian Schär | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Goal | Anthony Gordon |
Players
Newcastle United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Isak FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1.61 | 0.07 | 1.48 |
| Anthony Gordon FWR | 90 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0.88 | 1.03 | 1.35 |
| Elliot Anderson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Fabian Schär DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.52 |
| Dan Burn DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Emil Krafth DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Bruno Guimarães MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 1.02 |
| Sean Longstaff MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Martin Dubravka GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Harvey Barnes FWL | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.19 | 0.91 | 0.98 |
| Jacob Murphy DR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Valentino Livramento Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lewis Hall Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joe White Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matt Ritchie Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Paul Dummett Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Tottenham Hotspur
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timo Werner AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.51 | 0.01 | 0.57 |
| Brennan Johnson AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.32 | 0.52 |
| Cristian Romero DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Micky van de Ven DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Iyenoma Destiny Udogie DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.12 |
| Guglielmo Vicario GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| James Maddison AMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.04 | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| Son Heung-Min FW | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| Rodrigo Bentancur DMC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Yves Bissouma DMC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Pedro Porro DR | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Emerson Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| Pape Sarr Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Dejan Kulusevski Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Giovani Lo Celso Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |