Newcastle United v West Ham United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 17 May 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 15
On target
7 – 8
Shots in box
9 – 10
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.04 – 0.05
Goals − xG
+0.87 – +0.04
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Newcastle United win
45.9%
Draw
26.5%
West Ham United win
27.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Newcastle United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLWDWLDWD last 10
scored 15
from 14.3 xG
conceded 14
from 19.1 xG
West Ham United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLWDWLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 13.5 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.75–1.33 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.07–1.22 | 2-1 10% | 64% | 62% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Newcastle United 2.13 xGWest Ham United 0.96 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Newcastle United attacking right
West Ham United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10' |
 Newcastle United |
William Osula | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sandro Tonali |
| 11' |
Newcastle United |
Sven Botman | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Kieran Trippier |
| 14' |
Newcastle United |
Nick Woltemade | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Harvey Barnes |
| 18' |
Newcastle United |
William Osula | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jacob Ramsey |
| 22' |
 West Ham United |
Mateus Fernandes | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 28' |
West Ham United |
El Hadji Malick Diouf | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 28' |
West Ham United |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Crysencio Summerville |
| 33' |
West Ham United |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mateus Fernandes |
| 44' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nick Woltemade |
| 56' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Harvey Barnes |
| 56' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joe Willock |
| 56' |
Newcastle United |
Lewis Hall | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nick Woltemade |
| 56' |
West Ham United |
Mateus Fernandes | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Tomas Soucek |
| 61' |
West Ham United |
Crysencio Summerville | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | El Hadji Malick Diouf |
| 64' |
Newcastle United |
William Osula | 0.52 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Joe Willock |
| 68' |
West Ham United |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mads Hermansen |
| 71' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nick Woltemade |
| 72' |
West Ham United |
Konstantinos Mavropanos | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 73' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 75' |
West Ham United |
Callum Wilson | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | El Hadji Malick Diouf |
| 77' |
West Ham United |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 78' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jacob Ramsey |
| 78' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 81' |
West Ham United |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | El Hadji Malick Diouf |
| 83' |
West Ham United |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Pablo |
| 83' |
West Ham United |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 87' |
Newcastle United |
Lewis Hall | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Joe Willock |
| 89' |
Newcastle United |
Joe Willock | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dan Burn |
| 94' |
West Ham United |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 95' |
Newcastle United |
Anthony Elanga | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jacob Murphy |
Players
West Ham United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateus Fernandes MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.74 |
| Crysencio Summerville AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.32 | 0.63 |
| Callum Wilson FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Jarrod Bowen AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| El Hadji Malick Diouf DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.21 | 0.72 |
| Konstantinos Mavropanos DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Mads Hermansen GK | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.39 |
| Axel Disasi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Tomas Soucek MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.24 |
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka DMR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Valentín Castellanos Sub | 65 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Jean-Clair Todibo DC | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mohamadou Kanté Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Pablo Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
Newcastle United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lewis Hall DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Bruno Guimarães DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Sven Botman DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Jacob Ramsey AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0.63 |
| Nick Pope GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Malick Thiaw DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| William Osula FW | 88 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.98 | 0.00 | 1.03 |
| Kieran Trippier DR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.51 |
| Nick Woltemade AMC | 78 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.47 | 0.18 | 0.65 |
| Harvey Barnes AMR | 78 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.49 | 0.99 |
| Sandro Tonali DMC | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| Joe Willock Sub | 34 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.77 | 0.96 |
| Jacob Murphy Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.26 |
| Dan Burn Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Anthony Elanga Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Yoane Wissa Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |