Newcastle United v West Ham United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 25 November 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 15
On target
2 – 6
Shots in box
14 – 7
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.15 – 0.12
Goals − xG
-1.53 – +1.06
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Newcastle United win
65.6%
Draw
16.7%
West Ham United win
17.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Newcastle United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLWDWLDWD last 10
scored 15
from 14.3 xG
conceded 14
from 19.1 xG
West Ham United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLWDWLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 13.5 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 2.77–1.43 | 2-1 8% | 79% | 71% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Newcastle United 1.53 xGWest Ham United 0.94 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Newcastle United attacking right
West Ham United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Valentino Livramento |
| 7' |
Newcastle United |
Anthony Gordon | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lewis Hall |
| 9' |
 West Ham United |
Tomas Soucek | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Goal | Emerson |
| 10' |
West Ham United |
Lucas Paquetá | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 14' |
Newcastle United |
Joe Willock | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 17' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bruno Guimarães |
| 17' |
Newcastle United |
Lloyd Kelly | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lewis Hall |
| 22' |
West Ham United |
Carlos Soler | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jarrod Bowen |
| 26' |
West Ham United |
Carlos Soler | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 28' |
Newcastle United |
Sean Longstaff | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Anthony Gordon |
| 33' |
Newcastle United |
Lewis Hall | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lloyd Kelly |
| 35' |
Newcastle United |
Anthony Gordon | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 35' |
Newcastle United |
Joe Willock | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 38' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lucas Paquetá |
| 39' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Bruno Guimarães |
| 47' |
Newcastle United |
Fabian Schär | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 48' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joelinton |
| 48' |
Newcastle United |
Lewis Hall | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bruno Guimarães |
| 51' |
Newcastle United |
Anthony Gordon | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
West Ham United |
Aaron Wan-Bissaka | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jarrod Bowen |
| 54' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 58' |
West Ham United |
Tomas Soucek | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 58' |
West Ham United |
Tomas Soucek | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lucas Paquetá |
| 59' |
Newcastle United |
Fabian Schär | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bruno Guimarães |
| 62' |
West Ham United |
Carlos Soler | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 64' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Valentino Livramento |
| 75' |
West Ham United |
Carlos Soler | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 76' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Danny Ings |
| 77' |
Newcastle United |
Lewis Hall | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alexander Isak |
| 78' |
West Ham United |
Danny Ings | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jarrod Bowen |
| 79' |
West Ham United |
Danny Ings | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Vladimir Coufal |
| 91' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
West Ham United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrod Bowen AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0.20 | 0.24 | 0.64 |
| Tomas Soucek DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Lucas Paquetá DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.48 |
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Lukasz Fabianski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Max Kilman DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Carlos Soler AMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Crysencio Summerville AML | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Michail Antonio FW | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Emerson DL | 78 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.00 |
| Jean-Clair Todibo DC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Konstantinos Mavropanos Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Danny Ings Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.11 | 0.31 |
| Vladimir Coufal Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.20 |
| Andy Irving Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Guido Rodríguez Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Newcastle United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Isak FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0.57 | 0.04 | 0.67 |
| Lewis Hall DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 0.21 |
| Lloyd Kelly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.21 |
| Fabian Schär DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Valentino Livramento DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.29 |
| Nick Pope GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Bruno Guimarães MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.48 |
| Joelinton FWR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.33 |
| Anthony Gordon FWL | 71 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.57 | 0.04 | 0.62 |
| Sean Longstaff MC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Joe Willock MC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Harvey Barnes Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Sandro Tonali Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Callum Wilson Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jacob Murphy Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kieran Trippier Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |