Newcastle United v Wolverhampton Wanderers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 13 September 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 8
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
7 – 7
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.19 – 0.10
Goals − xG
-0.19 – -0.38
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Newcastle United win
58.4%
Draw
21.5%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win
20.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Newcastle United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLWDWLDWD last 10
scored 15
from 14.3 xG
conceded 14
from 19.1 xG
Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDLLLDLDD last 10
scored 9
from 12.7 xG
conceded 17
from 19.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.99–1.08 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.30–0.90 | 2-0 11% | 62% | 54% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Newcastle United 1.19 xGWolverhampton Wanderers 0.38 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Newcastle United attacking right
Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Hee-Chan Hwang | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 0' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Rodrigo Gomes | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 4' |
 Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nick Woltemade |
| 10' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Rodrigo Gomes | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ladislav Krejcí |
| 12' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 12' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.61 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Joelinton |
| 15' |
Newcastle United |
Nick Woltemade | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Kieran Trippier |
| 18' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Toti | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Hugo Bueno |
| 24' |
Newcastle United |
Nick Woltemade | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bruno Guimarães |
| 27' |
Newcastle United |
Dan Burn | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Kieran Trippier |
| 29' |
Newcastle United |
Nick Woltemade | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Goal | Jacob Murphy |
| 36' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kieran Trippier |
| 38' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Hee-Chan Hwang | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | João Gomes |
| 40' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Rodrigo Gomes | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Hugo Bueno |
| 42' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kieran Trippier |
| 48' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 49' |
Newcastle United |
Sandro Tonali | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 49' |
Newcastle United |
Sandro Tonali | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 50' |
Newcastle United |
Sandro Tonali | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kieran Trippier |
| 73' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bruno Guimarães |
| 84' |
Newcastle United |
Joe Willock | 0.06 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Fabian Schär |
| 88' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 90' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Jhon Arias | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Fernando López |
| 96' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | William Osula |
Players
Newcastle United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Murphy FWR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0.70 | 0.09 | 0.81 |
| Sandro Tonali MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Bruno Guimarães MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| Dan Burn DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Kieran Trippier DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| Valentino Livramento DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| Fabian Schär DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| Nick Pope GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Harvey Barnes FWL | 85 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Nick Woltemade FW | 70 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| Joelinton MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| Joe Willock Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| William Osula Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Anthony Elanga Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Sven Botman Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Ladislav Krejcí MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| Sam Johnstone GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hugo Bueno DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| Emmanuel Agbadou DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| João Gomes MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| Rodrigo Gomes DML | 82 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Hee-Chan Hwang FW | 82 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Tolu Arokodare FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| André MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yerson Mosquera DC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jhon Arias Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jean-Ricner Bellegarde Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Marshall Munetsi Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jackson Tchatchoua Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fernando López Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |