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Newcastle United v Wolverhampton Wanderers — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 15 January 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425

Premier League xG Prediction generated

Newcastle United
3–0
2.13 – 1.47 xG
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Shots
17 – 13
On target
5 – 7
Shots in box
11 – 8
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.31 – 0.32
Goals − xG
+0.87 – -1.47

AI prediction

dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Newcastle United win
70.4%
Draw
17.1%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win
12.5%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Newcastle United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LLLWDWLDWD last 10 scored 15 from 14.3 xG conceded 14 from 19.1 xG

Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWDLLLDLDD last 10 scored 9 from 12.7 xG conceded 17 from 19.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTSOutcome
dc-xg-oos 2.41–0.91 2-0 10% 65% 55% Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.61.21.82.40'15'30'45'60'75'90'Alexander Isak 33' — goalAlexander Isak 56' — goalAnthony Gordon 73' — goal
Newcastle United 2.13 xGWolverhampton Wanderers 1.47 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Jacob Murphy 5' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Gonçalo Guedes 12' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Lewis Hall 22' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Jacob Murphy 23' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Anthony Gordon 24' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Anthony Gordon 28' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Alexander Isak 30' — Shot On Post (0.11 xG, Open Play)Alexander Isak 33' — Goal (0.08 xG, Open Play)Jørgen Strand Larsen 42' — Shot On Post (0.08 xG, Open Play)Joelinton 43' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Gonçalo Guedes 46' — Saved Shot (0.30 xG, Set Piece)Matheus Cunha 47' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Sandro Tonali 48' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Set Piece)Anthony Gordon 50' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Alexander Isak 56' — Goal (0.38 xG, Open Play)Matheus Cunha 61' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Bruno Guimarães 63' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Matheus Cunha 64' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Joelinton 66' — Blocked Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Dan Burn 67' — Missed Shot (0.24 xG, From Corner)Nélson Semedo 70' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Matheus Cunha 72' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Anthony Gordon 73' — Goal (0.53 xG, Open Play)Jean-Ricner Bellegarde 78' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Jørgen Strand Larsen 82' — Saved Shot (0.30 xG, Open Play)Lewis Hall 88' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Tommy Doyle 91' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Pablo Sarabia 94' — Saved Shot (0.31 xG, Open Play)Bruno Guimarães 96' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Pablo Sarabia 97' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)
Newcastle United attacking right Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
5' Newcastle United Jacob Murphy 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot —
12' Wolverhampton Wanderers Gonçalo Guedes 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
22' Newcastle United Lewis Hall 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot —
23' Newcastle United Jacob Murphy 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Anthony Gordon
24' Newcastle United Anthony Gordon 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Joelinton
28' Newcastle United Anthony Gordon 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Bruno Guimarães
30' Newcastle United Alexander Isak 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Shot On Post Bruno Guimarães
33' Newcastle United Alexander Isak 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Goal —
42' Wolverhampton Wanderers Jørgen Strand Larsen 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Shot On Post Rodrigo Gomes
43' Newcastle United Joelinton 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Sandro Tonali
46' Wolverhampton Wanderers Gonçalo Guedes 0.30 Set Piece Right Foot Saved Shot André
47' Wolverhampton Wanderers Matheus Cunha 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Jørgen Strand Larsen
48' Newcastle United Sandro Tonali 0.08 Set Piece Left Foot Blocked Shot —
50' Newcastle United Anthony Gordon 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Bruno Guimarães
56' Newcastle United Alexander Isak 0.38 Open Play Right Foot Goal Bruno Guimarães
61' Wolverhampton Wanderers Matheus Cunha 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot André
63' Newcastle United Bruno Guimarães 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Sandro Tonali
64' Wolverhampton Wanderers Matheus Cunha 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Jørgen Strand Larsen
66' Newcastle United Joelinton 0.13 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Jacob Murphy
67' Newcastle United Dan Burn 0.24 From Corner — Missed Shot Lewis Hall
70' Wolverhampton Wanderers Nélson Semedo 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Jean-Ricner Bellegarde
72' Wolverhampton Wanderers Matheus Cunha 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Nélson Semedo
73' Newcastle United Anthony Gordon 0.53 Open Play Right Foot Goal Alexander Isak
78' Wolverhampton Wanderers Jean-Ricner Bellegarde 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot João Gomes
82' Wolverhampton Wanderers Jørgen Strand Larsen 0.30 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Rayan Ait Nouri
88' Newcastle United Lewis Hall 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Miguel Almirón
91' Wolverhampton Wanderers Tommy Doyle 0.02 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot Matheus Cunha
94' Wolverhampton Wanderers Pablo Sarabia 0.31 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Nélson Semedo
96' Newcastle United Bruno Guimarães 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Sandro Tonali
97' Wolverhampton Wanderers Pablo Sarabia 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Matheus Cunha

Players

Newcastle United

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Dan Burn DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.24 0.00 0.16
Bruno Guimarães MC 90 0 1 2 4 0.12 0.62 0.87
Sandro Tonali MC 90 0 0 1 3 0.08 0.19 0.32
Lewis Hall DL 90 0 0 2 1 0.07 0.24 0.17
Martin Dubravka GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Sven Botman DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Valentino Livramento DR 88 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.57
Joelinton MC 86 0 0 2 1 0.21 0.12 0.44
Anthony Gordon FWL 81 1 0 4 1 0.77 0.06 0.98
Alexander Isak FW 81 2 1 3 1 0.56 0.53 1.40
Jacob Murphy FWR 81 0 0 2 1 0.08 0.13 0.73
William Osula Sub 9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Miguel Almirón Sub 9 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.02
Joe Willock Sub 9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lewis Miley Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Kieran Trippier Sub 2 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02

Wolverhampton Wanderers

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Jørgen Strand Larsen FW 90 0 0 2 2 0.38 0.14 0.53
Matt Doherty DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.17
Rayan Ait Nouri DML 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.30 0.61
Emmanuel Agbadou DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.66
Santiago Bueno DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
José Sá GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
João Gomes MC 89 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.04
André MC 89 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.31 0.04
Gonçalo Guedes AMC 72 0 0 2 0 0.36 0.00 0.24
Rodrigo Gomes DMR 72 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.08 0.08
Hee-Chan Hwang AMC 49 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Matheus Cunha Sub 41 0 0 4 2 0.28 0.08 0.64
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde Sub 18 0 0 1 1 0.04 0.02 0.38
Nélson Semedo Sub 18 0 0 1 2 0.02 0.42 0.45
Pablo Sarabia Sub 1 0 0 2 0 0.37 0.00 0.37
Tommy Doyle Sub 1 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.31
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On this page

Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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