Newell's Old Boys v Vélez Sarsfield — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 11 September 2026 · ARG-Liga Profesional · 2627

ARG-Liga Profesional results-only Prediction generated 9 Sep 2026, 09:54 UTC

Newell's Old Boys

20:00 UTC

Vélez Sarsfield

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 10 Sep, 11:32 · 32h before kick-off

Newell's Old Boys win

30.8%

model 32.2%

Draw

29.4%

model 29.5%

Vélez Sarsfield win

39.8%

model 38.2%

312940

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (574 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 13.8%
0-1 12.0%
0-0 10.9%
1-0 10.7%
1-2 7.9%

Goals

Over 2.5	39.3%	Under 2.5	60.7%
BTTS yes	46.1%	BTTS no	53.9%
Newell's Old Boys 1+	65.6%	Newell's Old Boys 2+	28.9%
Vélez Sarsfield 1+	69.5%	Vélez Sarsfield 2+	33.3%

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.19. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

23/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Vélez Sarsfield (+0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 58%

69.2% fair odds 1.45

moderate signal · 1062 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Newell's Old Boys not to win to nil

Win to nil · usually 72%

83.4% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1055 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Vélez Sarsfield carry the stronger rating, 1578 Elo against 1478.

Risk factors

The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0032 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Vélez Sarsfield have an estimated 39.8% win probability, against 30.8% for Newell's Old Boys and 29.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.07 for Newell's Old Boys and 1.19 for Vélez Sarsfield.

Why Newell's Old Boys

Nothing in the data singles out Newell's Old Boys.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 29.4%. A combined 2.26 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.07 to 1.19. Draws run at 31% in this competition.

Why Vélez Sarsfield can win

Vélez Sarsfield carry the stronger rating, 1578 Elo against 1478.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Newell's Old Boys, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Vélez Sarsfield, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Newell's Old Boys: 47% possession, 10.2 shots a match, 16.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Vélez Sarsfield: 54% possession, 10.8 shots a match, 16.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-10 15:23 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-10 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·

Vélez Sarsfield are the model's most likely outcome at 39.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.8%. Confidence 23/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	323038	1.07–1.19	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	293041	0.95–1.20	1-1 14%	36%	43%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield to win	41.1%	43.0%	27.7%	1.55×	2.33
Draw	30.2%	30.4%	30.7%	0.99×	3.29
Newell's Old Boys to win	28.7%	27.9%	41.8%	0.67×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield & not both score	26.5%	25.1%	17.2%	1.46×	3.98
Newell's Old Boys & not both score	18.1%	17.9%	27.7%	0.65×	5.58
Draw & both teams score	18.0%	17.9%	15.9%	1.13×	5.58
Vélez Sarsfield & both teams score	14.6%	13.3%	10.6%	1.25×	7.54
Draw & not both score	12.1%	13.3%	14.9%	0.89×	7.54
Newell's Old Boys & both teams score	10.6%	13.3%	14.2%	0.93×	7.54

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield & under 3.5	33.1%	30.8%	23.6%	1.31×	3.24
Vélez Sarsfield & over 1.5	27.6%	26.0%	17.5%	1.49×	3.84
Draw & under 2.5	25.9%	26.0%	28.1%	0.93×	3.84
Draw & under 3.5	25.9%	26.0%	28.1%	0.93×	3.84
Newell's Old Boys & under 3.5	24.0%	21.6%	34.8%	0.62×	4.63
Vélez Sarsfield & under 2.5	21.8%	21.6%	14.6%	1.47×	4.63
Vélez Sarsfield & over 2.5	19.2%	18.0%	13.2%	1.37×	5.56
Newell's Old Boys & over 1.5	18.1%	18.0%	27.7%	0.65×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	18.0%	18.0%	15.9%	1.13×	5.56
Newell's Old Boys & under 2.5	16.0%	18.0%	23.6%	0.76×	5.56
Vélez Sarsfield & under 1.5	13.5%	12.9%	10.3%	1.25×	7.76
Newell's Old Boys & over 2.5	12.8%	12.9%	18.3%	0.70×	7.76
Draw & under 1.5	12.1%	12.9%	14.9%	0.87×	7.76
Newell's Old Boys & under 1.5	10.7%	12.9%	14.2%	0.91×	7.76
Vélez Sarsfield & over 3.5	8.0%	7.9%	4.2%	1.87×	12.65
Newell's Old Boys & over 3.5	4.8%	4.8%	7.1%	0.68×	20.85
Draw & over 2.5	4.3%	4.8%	2.6%	1.82×	20.85
Draw & over 3.5	4.3%	4.8%	2.6%	1.82×	20.85

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield (1UP)	54.4%	52.9%	—	—	1.89
Newell's Old Boys (1UP)	43.3%	39.4%	—	—	2.54

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield (2UP)	41.1%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Newell's Old Boys (2UP)	28.7%	24.9%	—	—	4.01

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	40.9%	41.0%	—	—	2.44
Vélez Sarsfield to win 2nd half	35.0%	35.9%	—	—	2.79
Newell's Old Boys to win 2nd half	24.1%	23.2%	—	—	4.32

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield under 1.5 in 2nd half	83.8%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Vélez Sarsfield over 0.5 in 2nd half	51.2%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
Vélez Sarsfield under 0.5 in 2nd half	48.8%	46.6%	—	—	2.14
Vélez Sarsfield over 1.5 in 2nd half	16.2%	15.7%	—	—	6.38

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newell's Old Boys under 1.5 in 2nd half	89.7%	88.2%	—	—	1.13
Newell's Old Boys under 0.5 in 2nd half	58.1%	59.0%	—	—	1.70
Newell's Old Boys over 0.5 in 2nd half	41.9%	41.0%	—	—	2.44
Newell's Old Boys over 1.5 in 2nd half	10.3%	11.8%	—	—	8.45

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield (+2.5)	97.2%	96.3%	95.0%	1.01×	1.04
Vélez Sarsfield (+1.5)	89.6%	88.6%	82.5%	1.07×	1.13
Vélez Sarsfield (+0.5)	71.3%	73.7%	58.2%	1.27×	1.36
Newell's Old Boys (+0.5)	58.9%	57.0%	72.3%	0.79×	1.75
Vélez Sarsfield (-0.5)	41.1%	43.0%	27.7%	1.55×	2.33
Newell's Old Boys (-0.5)	28.7%	26.3%	41.8%	0.63×	3.81
Newell's Old Boys (-1.5)	10.4%	11.4%	17.5%	0.65×	8.74
Newell's Old Boys (-2.5)	2.8%	3.7%	5.0%	0.74×	26.88

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield to concede	61.4%	67.4%	68.1%	0.99×	1.48
Vélez Sarsfield clean sheet	38.6%	32.6%	31.9%	1.02×	3.07

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield clean sheet in 1st half	66.4%	69.2%	—	—	1.45
Vélez Sarsfield to concede in 1st half	33.6%	30.8%	—	—	3.25

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield clean sheet in 2nd half	58.1%	58.6%	—	—	1.71
Vélez Sarsfield to concede in 2nd half	41.9%	41.4%	—	—	2.42

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield over 2.5 corners	79.9%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Vélez Sarsfield under 6.5 corners	77.3%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Vélez Sarsfield under 5.5 corners	65.8%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Vélez Sarsfield over 3.5 corners	64.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Vélez Sarsfield under 4.5 corners	51.3%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Vélez Sarsfield over 4.5 corners	48.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Vélez Sarsfield under 3.5 corners	35.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Vélez Sarsfield over 5.5 corners	34.3%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Vélez Sarsfield over 6.5 corners	22.7%	24.0%	—	—	4.16
Vélez Sarsfield under 2.5 corners	20.1%	24.0%	—	—	4.16

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield under 3.5 goals	96.7%	97.5%	98.9%	0.99×	1.03
Vélez Sarsfield under 2.5 goals	88.1%	87.9%	93.4%	0.94×	1.14
Vélez Sarsfield over 0.5 goals	69.7%	68.0%	57.6%	1.18×	1.47
Vélez Sarsfield under 1.5 goals	66.4%	68.0%	78.1%	0.87×	1.47
Vélez Sarsfield over 1.5 goals	33.6%	32.0%	21.9%	1.46×	3.12
Vélez Sarsfield under 0.5 goals	30.3%	32.0%	42.4%	0.75×	3.13
Vélez Sarsfield over 2.5 goals	11.9%	12.1%	6.6%	1.83×	8.24
Vélez Sarsfield over 3.5 goals	3.3%	2.5%	1.1%	2.18×	40.00

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield under 1.5 in 1st half	91.6%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Vélez Sarsfield under 0.5 in 1st half	62.0%	64.1%	—	—	1.56
Vélez Sarsfield over 0.5 in 1st half	38.0%	35.9%	—	—	2.78
Vélez Sarsfield over 1.5 in 1st half	8.4%	5.9%	—	—	17.08

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield scores equally in both	41.6%	43.8%	—	—	2.28
Vélez Sarsfield scores more in 2nd half	36.8%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Vélez Sarsfield scores more in 1st half	21.6%	22.4%	—	—	4.47

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (away no bet)	51.2%	51.5%	42.3%	1.22×	1.94
Newell's Old Boys (away no bet)	48.8%	48.5%	57.7%	0.84×	2.06

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield even goals	54.6%	52.8%	58.5%	0.90×	1.89
Vélez Sarsfield odd goals	45.4%	47.2%	41.5%	1.14×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	92.0%	92.5%	—	—	1.08
Both halves over 1.5 goals	8.0%	7.5%	—	—	13.41

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals	49.6%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Not both halves under 1.5	50.4%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	43.6%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Vélez Sarsfield to score 2+ in a row	27.8%	25.1%	—	—	3.99
Newell's Old Boys to score 2+ in a row	19.1%	16.3%	—	—	6.12
Either team to score 3+ in a row	12.7%	12.2%	—	—	8.23
Vélez Sarsfield to score 3+ in a row	8.3%	5.7%	—	—	17.66
Newell's Old Boys to score 3+ in a row	4.5%	2.6%	—	—	37.90

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield corners (+3.5)	84.1%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Newell's Old Boys corners (+3.5)	83.5%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Vélez Sarsfield corners (+2.5)	76.5%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Newell's Old Boys corners (+2.5)	75.8%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Vélez Sarsfield corners (+1.5)	67.0%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Newell's Old Boys corners (+1.5)	66.2%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Vélez Sarsfield corners (-1.5)	33.8%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Newell's Old Boys corners (-1.5)	33.0%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Vélez Sarsfield corners (-2.5)	24.2%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Newell's Old Boys corners (-2.5)	23.5%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Vélez Sarsfield corners (-3.5)	16.5%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Newell's Old Boys corners (-3.5)	15.9%	20.2%	—	—	4.95

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	43.3%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
9-11 corners	30.2%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
12+ corners	26.5%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	80.8%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	73.5%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	67.8%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	64.5%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	56.7%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	54.3%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	45.7%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	43.3%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 10.5 corners	35.5%	36.7%	—	—	2.73
Under 7.5 corners	32.2%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	26.5%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Over 12.5 corners	19.2%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	13.8%	11.4%	13.4%	0.85×	8.74
0-1	13.5%	11.4%	10.3%	1.11×	8.74
0-0	12.1%	11.4%	14.9%	0.77×	8.74
1-0	10.7%	11.4%	14.2%	0.81×	8.74
0-2	8.3%	7.4%	4.5%	1.66×	13.50
1-2	7.9%	7.4%	7.1%	1.04×	13.50
2-0	5.3%	7.4%	9.5%	0.78×	13.50
2-1	6.3%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.50
0-3	3.3%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.30
0-4	1.0%	1.7%	0.6%	3.00×	58.31
1-3	3.2%	1.7%	1.9%	0.88×	58.30
1-4	0.9%	1.7%	0.3%	5.00×	58.31
2-2	3.8%	1.7%	2.3%	0.75×	58.30
2-3	1.5%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.31
2-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.1%	14.99×	58.32
3-0	1.7%	1.7%	2.7%	0.62×	58.31
3-1	2.0%	1.7%	3.0%	0.58×	58.31
3-2	1.2%	1.7%	1.6%	1.07×	58.31
3-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.3%	5.00×	58.32
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	14.99×	58.32
4-0	0.4%	1.7%	1.1%	1.50×	58.32
4-1	0.5%	1.7%	0.8%	2.14×	58.32
4-2	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	5.00×	58.32
4-3	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	7.49×	58.32
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	7.49×	58.32
Any other score	1.1%	1.7%	0.9%	1.87×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield (2nd half DNB)	59.2%	60.8%	—	—	1.65
Newell's Old Boys (2nd half DNB)	40.8%	39.2%	—	—	2.55

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield leading at HT (DNB)	54.8%	56.3%	—	—	1.78
Newell's Old Boys leading at HT (DNB)	45.2%	43.7%	—	—	2.29

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield or draw (X2)	71.3%	72.1%	58.2%	1.24×	1.39
Newell's Old Boys or Vélez Sarsfield (12)	69.8%	69.6%	69.3%	1.00×	1.44
Newell's Old Boys or draw (1X)	58.9%	57.0%	72.3%	0.79×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield or draw at HT	77.3%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Newell's Old Boys or draw at HT	72.5%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Newell's Old Boys or Vélez Sarsfield at HT	50.2%	47.5%	—	—	2.11

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield or draw (1UP)	71.3%	80.1%	—	—	1.25
Newell's Old Boys or draw (1UP)	58.9%	62.8%	—	—	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield or draw in 2nd half	75.9%	76.8%	—	—	1.30
Newell's Old Boys or draw in 2nd half	65.0%	64.1%	—	—	1.56
Newell's Old Boys or Vélez Sarsfield in 2nd half	59.1%	59.0%	—	—	1.70

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	69.8%	69.7%	—	—	1.44
Neither half drawn	30.2%	30.3%	—	—	3.30

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield (DNB)	58.8%	58.2%	39.9%	1.46×	1.72
Newell's Old Boys (DNB)	41.2%	41.8%	60.1%	0.70×	2.39

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield to score first	48.9%	45.6%	—	—	2.19
Newell's Old Boys to score first	39.0%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
No goal scored	12.1%	10.0%	—	—	10.03

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	56.7%	54.9%	59.5%	0.92×	1.82
Both teams to score	43.3%	45.1%	40.5%	1.11×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	49.9%	44.3%	52.9%	0.84×	2.26
Both score & over 2.5	29.5%	33.6%	27.2%	1.23×	2.98
Both score & under 2.5	13.8%	12.3%	13.4%	0.92×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	6.8%	8.3%	6.8%	1.23×	12.00

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	91.7%	89.1%	94.1%	0.95×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	8.3%	10.9%	6.0%	1.84×	9.15

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	78.4%	75.4%	—	—	1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half	21.6%	24.6%	—	—	4.06

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	68.3%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Both score 2nd half only	18.9%	15.7%	—	—	6.36
Both score 1st half only	10.1%	10.7%	—	—	9.36
Both score in both halves	2.7%	5.0%	—	—	20.19

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	87.2%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Both teams to score by HT	12.8%	13.8%	—	—	7.27

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	57.6%	57.3%	—	—	1.75
A goal in each half	42.4%	42.7%	—	—	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.7%	47.3%	47.3%	1.00×	2.12
0-1 goals	36.3%	35.1%	39.1%	0.90×	2.85
4-6 goals	16.4%	20.3%	13.4%	1.51×	4.93
7+ goals	0.7%	1.8%	0.5%	3.99×	54.83

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield to score exactly 1	36.2%	36.0%	35.8%	1.00×	2.78
Vélez Sarsfield to score exactly 0	30.3%	33.7%	42.4%	0.79×	2.96
Vélez Sarsfield to score exactly 2	21.6%	22.4%	15.3%	1.46×	4.47
Vélez Sarsfield to score 3+	11.9%	12.8%	6.6%	1.93×	7.79

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newell's Old Boys to score exactly 0	38.6%	35.6%	31.9%	1.12×	2.81
Newell's Old Boys to score exactly 1	36.7%	35.6%	36.5%	0.98×	2.81
Newell's Old Boys to score exactly 2	17.5%	18.9%	21.7%	0.87×	5.29
Newell's Old Boys to score 3+	7.2%	10.3%	10.1%	1.03×	9.68

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	49.8%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Vélez Sarsfield leading at HT	27.5%	25.7%	—	—	3.89
Newell's Old Boys leading at HT	22.7%	20.0%	—	—	4.99

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield -1: 1	58.9%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Vélez Sarsfield -1: X	23.1%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Vélez Sarsfield -1: 2	18.0%	17.4%	—	—	5.74

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield (0:1)	71.3%	71.1%	58.2%	1.22×	1.41
Draw (0:1)	18.3%	17.8%	24.4%	0.73×	5.62
Newell's Old Boys (0:1)	10.4%	13.8%	17.5%	0.79×	7.25

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield (0:2)	89.6%	87.0%	82.5%	1.05×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	7.6%	7.7%	12.6%	0.61×	12.97
Newell's Old Boys (0:2)	2.8%	3.8%	5.0%	0.75×	26.44

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield (0:3)	97.2%	96.6%	95.0%	1.02×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	2.2%	2.4%	3.4%	0.69×	42.13
Newell's Old Boys (0:3)	0.6%	2.4%	1.7%	1.38×	42.20

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield (0:4)	99.4%	98.1%	98.3%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.5%	1.2%	1.3%	0.95×	83.70
Newell's Old Boys (0:4)	0.1%	1.2%	0.6%	2.09×	83.74

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newell's Old Boys (1:0)	58.9%	58.3%	72.3%	0.81×	1.72
Draw (1:0)	23.1%	21.9%	18.7%	1.17×	4.58
Vélez Sarsfield (1:0)	18.0%	17.0%	9.2%	1.86×	5.88

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newell's Old Boys (2:0)	82.0%	84.5%	90.8%	0.93×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	12.0%	10.4%	6.3%	1.65×	9.62
Vélez Sarsfield (2:0)	6.0%	6.4%	3.0%	2.17×	15.51

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	44.6%	48.9%	—	—	2.05
Halves equal	29.6%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
1st half highest scoring	25.9%	26.5%	—	—	3.78

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newell's Old Boys to concede	69.7%	66.6%	57.6%	1.16×	1.50
Newell's Old Boys clean sheet	30.3%	33.4%	42.4%	0.79×	2.99

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newell's Old Boys clean sheet in 1st half	62.0%	64.1%	—	—	1.56
Newell's Old Boys to concede in 1st half	38.0%	35.9%	—	—	2.79

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newell's Old Boys to concede in 2nd half	51.2%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Newell's Old Boys clean sheet in 2nd half	48.8%	46.7%	—	—	2.14

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newell's Old Boys over 2.5 corners	79.5%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Newell's Old Boys under 6.5 corners	77.9%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Newell's Old Boys under 5.5 corners	66.4%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Newell's Old Boys over 3.5 corners	64.1%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Newell's Old Boys under 4.5 corners	52.0%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Newell's Old Boys over 4.5 corners	48.0%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Newell's Old Boys under 3.5 corners	35.9%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Newell's Old Boys over 5.5 corners	33.6%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Newell's Old Boys over 6.5 corners	22.1%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Newell's Old Boys under 2.5 corners	20.5%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newell's Old Boys under 3.5 goals	98.4%	96.3%	97.1%	0.99×	1.04
Newell's Old Boys under 2.5 goals	92.8%	92.2%	89.9%	1.03×	1.08
Newell's Old Boys under 1.5 goals	75.3%	77.7%	68.3%	1.14×	1.29
Newell's Old Boys over 0.5 goals	61.4%	63.5%	68.1%	0.93×	1.57
Newell's Old Boys under 0.5 goals	38.6%	36.5%	31.9%	1.14×	2.74
Newell's Old Boys over 1.5 goals	24.7%	22.3%	31.7%	0.70×	4.49
Newell's Old Boys over 2.5 goals	7.2%	7.8%	10.1%	0.77×	12.88
Newell's Old Boys over 3.5 goals	1.6%	3.7%	2.9%	1.28×	27.38

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newell's Old Boys under 1.5 in 1st half	93.6%	95.5%	—	—	1.05
Newell's Old Boys under 0.5 in 1st half	66.4%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Newell's Old Boys over 0.5 in 1st half	33.6%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Newell's Old Boys over 1.5 in 1st half	6.4%	4.5%	—	—	22.21

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newell's Old Boys scores equally in both	47.7%	47.1%	—	—	2.13
Newell's Old Boys scores more in 2nd half	30.7%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
Newell's Old Boys scores more in 1st half	21.6%	21.5%	—	—	4.65

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield (home no bet)	57.6%	56.6%	47.5%	1.19×	1.77
Draw (home no bet)	42.4%	43.4%	52.5%	0.83×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newell's Old Boys even goals	57.4%	55.3%	55.7%	0.99×	1.81
Newell's Old Boys odd goals	42.6%	44.7%	44.3%	1.01×	2.24

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	41.3%	40.8%	—	—	2.45
HT 0-1	19.6%	18.7%	—	—	5.35
HT 1-0	16.8%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
HT 1-1	8.1%	7.1%	—	—	14.01
HT 0-2	4.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.36
HT 2-0	3.5%	2.3%	—	—	43.45
HT 1-2	1.9%	2.3%	—	—	43.56
Any other HT score	2.1%	2.3%	—	—	43.55
HT 2-1	1.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.58
HT 2-2	0.4%	2.3%	—	—	43.68

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield at HT / Vélez Sarsfield at FT	21.8%	21.7%	—	—	4.60
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	20.8%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
Draw at HT / Vélez Sarsfield at FT	17.2%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Newell's Old Boys at HT / Newell's Old Boys at FT	15.7%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Draw at HT / Newell's Old Boys at FT	11.8%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Newell's Old Boys at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.73
Vélez Sarsfield at HT / Draw at FT	4.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.75
Newell's Old Boys at HT / Vélez Sarsfield at FT	2.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.84
Vélez Sarsfield at HT / Newell's Old Boys at FT	1.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.87

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield to score last	48.9%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Newell's Old Boys to score last	38.9%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
No goal scored	12.1%	9.4%	—	—	10.68

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	87.9%	90.7%	—	—	1.10
Vélez Sarsfield to lead by 1 at any time	54.4%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Newell's Old Boys to lead by 1 at any time	43.3%	39.3%	—	—	2.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	36.6%	34.8%	—	—	2.87
Vélez Sarsfield to lead by 2 at any time	22.4%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Newell's Old Boys to lead by 2 at any time	14.2%	10.5%	—	—	9.52
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	10.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Vélez Sarsfield to lead by 3 at any time	7.2%	6.6%	—	—	15.11
Newell's Old Boys to lead by 3 at any time	3.6%	1.6%	—	—	60.80

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield most corners	44.8%	43.6%	—	—	2.29
Newell's Old Boys most corners	43.8%	43.6%	—	—	2.29
Corners level	11.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.6%	87.4%	84.2%	1.04×	1.15
1-4 goals	81.2%	83.4%	79.9%	1.04×	1.20
1-3 goals	70.8%	72.4%	71.5%	1.01×	1.38
2-6 goals	63.0%	63.4%	60.5%	1.05×	1.58
2-5 goals	61.4%	63.4%	60.0%	1.06×	1.58
2-4 goals	57.0%	59.1%	55.6%	1.06×	1.69
1-2 goals	51.6%	53.1%	51.4%	1.03×	1.88
2-3 goals	46.7%	48.6%	47.3%	1.03×	2.06
3-6 goals	35.6%	39.2%	33.5%	1.17×	2.55
3-5 goals	34.1%	35.3%	33.0%	1.07×	2.83
3-4 goals	29.6%	30.3%	28.6%	1.06×	3.30
4-6 goals	16.4%	18.7%	13.4%	1.40×	5.34
4-5 goals	14.8%	14.9%	12.8%	1.16×	6.73
5-6 goals	6.0%	8.8%	5.0%	1.75×	11.33
7+ goals	0.7%	2.6%	0.5%	5.57×	39.21

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield never behind	44.6%	48.4%	—	—	2.07
Newell's Old Boys never behind	33.5%	35.7%	—	—	2.81

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.4%	50.8%	49.1%	1.04×	1.97
Even number of goals	51.6%	49.2%	50.9%	0.97×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	58.6%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	41.4%	42.5%	—	—	2.36

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	54.3%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	45.7%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	97.8%	95.4%	99.0%	0.96×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	93.3%	92.2%	94.6%	0.97×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	87.9%	87.6%	85.1%	1.03×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	83.0%	82.3%	86.3%	0.95×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	63.7%	61.7%	60.9%	1.01×	1.62
Under 2.5 goals	63.7%	61.7%	66.1%	0.93×	1.62
Under 1.5 goals	36.3%	38.3%	39.1%	0.98×	2.61
Over 2.5 goals	36.3%	38.3%	33.9%	1.13×	2.61
Over 3.5 goals	17.0%	17.7%	13.7%	1.29×	5.65
Under 0.5 goals	12.1%	12.4%	14.9%	0.83×	8.08
Over 4.5 goals	6.7%	7.8%	5.4%	1.44×	12.88
Over 5.5 goals	2.2%	4.6%	1.0%	4.43×	21.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.3%	97.2%	99.5%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	97.7%	97.2%	98.9%	0.98×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	92.5%	92.4%	94.1%	0.98×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	78.9%	75.9%	82.8%	0.92×	1.32
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	50.0%	51.9%	53.6%	0.97×	1.93
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	50.0%	48.1%	46.4%	1.04×	2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	21.1%	24.1%	17.2%	1.40×	4.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	7.5%	7.6%	5.9%	1.30×	13.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	2.4%	2.8%	1.1%	2.59×	35.86
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.7%	2.8%	0.5%	6.05×	35.91

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	93.9%	92.8%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	77.6%	78.8%	—	—	1.27
Over 0.5 in 1st half	58.7%	62.8%	—	—	1.59
Under 0.5 in 1st half	41.3%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
Over 1.5 in 1st half	22.4%	21.2%	—	—	4.73
Over 2.5 in 1st half	6.1%	7.2%	—	—	13.92

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	86.6%	85.3%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	71.5%	77.6%	—	—	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	64.0%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	36.0%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	28.5%	22.4%	—	—	4.47
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	13.4%	14.7%	—	—	6.83

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newell's Old Boys not to score in both halves	85.9%	85.7%	—	—	1.17
Vélez Sarsfield not to score in both halves	80.6%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Vélez Sarsfield to score in both halves	19.4%	15.7%	—	—	6.36
Newell's Old Boys to score in both halves	14.1%	14.3%	—	—	7.00

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	43.3%	46.6%	40.5%	1.15×	2.15
Only Vélez Sarsfield scores	26.5%	26.0%	17.2%	1.52×	3.84
Only Newell's Old Boys scores	18.1%	16.0%	27.7%	0.58×	6.24
Neither team scores	12.1%	11.0%	14.9%	0.74×	9.10

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	27.4%	24.9%	27.1%	0.92×	4.01
Exactly 1 goals	24.2%	22.6%	24.4%	0.93×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	19.3%	17.4%	20.3%	0.86×	5.73
Exactly 0 goals	12.1%	12.1%	14.9%	0.81×	8.28
Exactly 4 goals	10.3%	12.1%	8.5%	1.43×	8.28
Exactly 5 goals	4.4%	4.5%	4.5%	1.00×	22.41
6 or more goals	2.2%	4.5%	1.0%	4.33×	22.44

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	41.3%	41.5%	—	—	2.41
1 goal in 1st half	36.4%	37.1%	—	—	2.70
2 goals in 1st half	16.3%	15.2%	—	—	6.57
3+ goals in 1st half	6.1%	7.2%	—	—	13.92

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	36.0%	39.9%	—	—	2.51
1 goal in 2nd half	35.4%	39.8%	—	—	2.51
No goals in 2nd half	28.5%	29.8%	—	—	3.35

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newell's Old Boys not to win both halves	94.5%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Vélez Sarsfield not to win both halves	90.3%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
Vélez Sarsfield to win both halves	9.7%	6.1%	—	—	16.43
Newell's Old Boys to win both halves	5.5%	6.0%	—	—	16.73

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newell's Old Boys to win neither half	58.7%	59.5%	—	—	1.68
Vélez Sarsfield to win either half	52.8%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Vélez Sarsfield to win neither half	47.2%	45.0%	—	—	2.22
Newell's Old Boys to win either half	41.3%	40.5%	—	—	2.47

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newell's Old Boys not to win to nil	81.9%	83.1%	72.3%	1.15×	1.20
Vélez Sarsfield not to win to nil	73.6%	75.4%	82.8%	0.91×	1.33
Vélez Sarsfield to win to nil	26.5%	24.6%	17.2%	1.43×	4.06
Newell's Old Boys to win to nil	18.1%	16.9%	27.7%	0.61×	5.91

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	30.2%	27.6%	30.7%	0.90×	3.63
Vélez Sarsfield by 1	23.1%	24.2%	18.7%	1.30×	4.14
Newell's Old Boys by 1	18.3%	16.9%	24.4%	0.69×	5.91
Vélez Sarsfield by 2	12.0%	11.8%	6.3%	1.87×	8.49
Newell's Old Boys by 2	7.6%	7.2%	12.6%	0.58×	13.81
Vélez Sarsfield by 3+	6.0%	7.2%	3.0%	2.43×	13.81
Newell's Old Boys by 3+	2.8%	2.7%	5.0%	0.54×	36.67