Nice v Angers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 7 December 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 8
On target
3 – 4
Shots in box
9 – 5
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
0.53 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-1.38 – -0.37
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nice win
56.2%
Draw
22.9%
Angers win
21.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nice are finishing below their chances — 3.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDLDLWWLW last 10
scored 9
from 12.2 xG
conceded 12
from 15.8 xG
Angers are finishing below their chances — 3.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDDLWLDWLL last 10
scored 12
from 15.4 xG
conceded 20
from 21.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.61–0.86 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.30–0.92 | 2-0 11% | 62% | 54% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nice 1.38 xGAngers 1.37 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nice attacking right
Angers attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Nice |
Sofiane Diop | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tom Louchet |
| 14' |
Nice |
Mohamed Ali-Cho | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Charles Vanhoutte |
| 14' |
Nice |
Sofiane Diop | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 28' |
 Angers |
Amine Sbaï | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sidiki Chérif |
| 32' |
Angers |
Yassin Belkhdim | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Carlens Arcus |
| 38' |
Nice |
Juma Bah | 0.42 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jonathan Clauss |
| 40' |
Nice |
Antoine Mendy | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 42' |
Angers |
Yassin Belkhdim | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 43' |
Nice |
Sofiane Diop | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ali Abdi |
| 44' |
Angers |
Louis Mouton | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yassin Belkhdim |
| 46' |
Nice |
Mohamed Ali-Cho | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Sofiane Diop |
| 54' |
Angers |
Jacques Ekomie | 0.19 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Amine Sbaï |
| 55' |
Angers |
Jacques Ekomie | 0.17 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 55' |
Angers |
Yassin Belkhdim | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Haris Belkebla |
| 56' |
Nice |
Bernard Nguene | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jonathan Clauss |
| 60' |
Nice |
Morgan Sanson | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ali Abdi |
| 72' |
Angers |
Prosper Peter | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Louis Mouton |
| 72' |
Nice |
Hichem Boudaoui | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Isak Jansson |
| 77' |
Nice |
Isak Jansson | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tanguy NDombele Alvaro |
| 79' |
Nice |
Tanguy NDombele Alvaro | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Isak Jansson |
| 80' |
Nice |
Bernard Nguene | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Isak Jansson |
| 89' |
Nice |
Melvin Bard | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Angers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacques Ekomie DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Ousmane Camara DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Haris Belkebla DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.66 |
| Himad Abdelli DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Kouakou Herve Koffi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Jordan Lefort DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Yassin Belkhdim AMR | 85 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.03 | 0.94 |
| Louis Mouton AMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.68 |
| Amine Sbaï AML | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.19 | 0.67 |
| Sidiki Chérif FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| Carlens Arcus DR | 67 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 1.02 |
| Lilian Raolisoa Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Prosper Peter Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Djibirin Harouna Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pierrick Capelle Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jim Allevinah Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Nice
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Mendy DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Melvin Bard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jonathan Clauss DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 0.10 |
| Charles Vanhoutte MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.16 |
| Yehvann Diouf GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Ali Abdi DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| Mohamed Ali-Cho FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Sofiane Diop FW | 65 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.05 | 0.21 |
| Morgan Sanson MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Tom Louchet MC | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Juma Bah DC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bernard Nguene Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Isak Jansson Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.31 | 0.13 | 0.44 |
| Hichem Boudaoui Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Tanguy NDombele Alvaro Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| Kevin Omoruyi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |