Nice v Auxerre — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 23 August 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 13
On target
6 – 8
Shots in box
9 – 8
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.35 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+0.34 – -1.29
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nice win
63.5%
Draw
20.4%
Auxerre win
16.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nice are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDDDLDDLD last 10
scored 6
from 11.6 xG
conceded 12
from 17.5 xG
Auxerre are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDDLWWWLLL last 10
scored 16
from 13.3 xG
conceded 19
from 21.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.25–1.06 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.20–0.95 | 2-0 10% | 61% | 54% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nice 2.66 xGAuxerre 2.29 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nice attacking right
Auxerre attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Nice |
Jeremie Boga | 0.45 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Tom Louchet |
| 3' |
 Auxerre |
Elisha Owusu | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 12' |
Auxerre |
Josué Casimir | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kévin Danois |
| 12' |
Auxerre |
Kévin Danois | 0.33 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 16' |
Nice |
Kevin Omoruyi | 0.29 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jeremie Boga |
| 17' |
Nice |
Isak Jansson | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Tom Louchet |
| 18' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 20' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ibrahim Osman |
| 23' |
Auxerre |
Clément Akpa | 0.00 | Open Play | Left Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 30' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kévin Danois |
| 35' |
Auxerre |
Ibrahim Osman | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kévin Danois |
| 35' |
Auxerre |
Josué Casimir | 0.22 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 45' |
Nice |
Tom Louchet | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Jeremie Boga |
| 50' |
Auxerre |
Ibrahim Osman | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kévin Danois |
| 50' |
Nice |
Melvin Bard | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jeremie Boga |
| 53' |
Nice |
Kevin Omoruyi | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tom Louchet |
| 55' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kévin Danois |
| 57' |
Nice |
Isak Jansson | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 58' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ibrahim Osman |
| 67' |
Nice |
Kevin Omoruyi | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Hichem Boudaoui |
| 71' |
Nice |
Pablo Rosario | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tom Louchet |
| 75' |
Nice |
Pablo Rosario | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Badredine Bouanani |
| 75' |
Nice |
Terem Igobor Moffi | 0.77 | Open Play | — | Goal | Tom Louchet |
| 83' |
Nice |
Sofiane Diop | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Hichem Boudaoui |
| 87' |
Nice |
Hichem Boudaoui | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kojo Peprah Oppong |
| 88' |
Nice |
Hichem Boudaoui | 0.56 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sofiane Diop |
| 89' |
Nice |
Tom Louchet | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 93' |
Auxerre |
Kévin Danois | 0.55 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lamine Sy |
| 93' |
Nice |
Terem Igobor Moffi | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Pablo Rosario |
Players
Auxerre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kévin Danois MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0.88 | 0.30 | 1.60 |
| Josué Casimir MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Elisha Owusu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 1.19 |
| Clément Akpa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Francisco Sierralta DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Lassine Sinayoko FW | 81 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.96 | 0.00 | 1.08 |
| Gideon Mensah DL | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Marvin Senaya DR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Ibrahim Osman ML | 70 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.50 | 0.63 |
| Gabriel Osho DC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Donovan Léon GK | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Théo De Percin Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Danny Namaso Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Fredrik Oppegård Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Lasso Coulibaly Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lamine Sy Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.55 | 0.55 |
Nice
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hichem Boudaoui MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.58 | 0.09 | 0.72 |
| Melvin Bard DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Tom Louchet DMR | 90 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0.02 | 1.43 | 2.04 |
| Kojo Peprah Oppong DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Juma Bah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Yehvann Diouf GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Antoine Mendy DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| Jeremie Boga AMC | 81 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.45 | 0.33 | 0.54 |
| Kevin Omoruyi FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Isak Jansson AMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Salis Abdul Samed MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pablo Rosario Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.23 |
| Sofiane Diop Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.56 | 0.61 |
| Terem Igobor Moffi Sub | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.88 | 0.00 | 0.92 |
| Badredine Bouanani Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.65 |
| Hamza Koutoune Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |