Nice v Brest — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 1 February 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 12
On target
7 – 2
Shots in box
10 – 6
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.19 – 0.93
Goals − xG
+0.78 – +0.17
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nice win
50.2%
Draw
21.8%
Brest win
27.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nice are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDDDLDDLD last 10
scored 6
from 11.6 xG
conceded 12
from 17.5 xG
Brest are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.1 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDDLLLDDDW last 10
scored 15
from 18.0 xG
conceded 21
from 17.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.60–1.11 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.14–1.32 | 2-1 9% | 67% | 65% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nice 1.22 xGBrest 1.83 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nice attacking right
Brest attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Nice |
Mohamed Ali-Cho | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ali Abdi |
| 14' |
 Brest |
Romain Del Castillo | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 22' |
Brest |
Kamory Doumbia | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ludovic Ajorque |
| 25' |
Nice |
Sofiane Diop | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ali Abdi |
| 26' |
Nice |
Dante | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jonathan Clauss |
| 29' |
Nice |
Sofiane Diop | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ali Abdi |
| 37' |
Nice |
Kojo Peprah Oppong | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Sofiane Diop |
| 39' |
Nice |
Charles Vanhoutte | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 39' |
Nice |
Morgan Sanson | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 47' |
Brest |
Remy Labeau Lascary | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kenny Lala |
| 48' |
Brest |
Daouda Guindo | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Hugo Magnetti |
| 53' |
Brest |
Soumaila Coulibaly | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Romain Del Castillo |
| 54' |
Nice |
Kail Boudache | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 59' |
Nice |
Ali Abdi | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 62' |
Nice |
Ali Abdi | 0.08 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Jonathan Clauss |
| 63' |
Brest |
Joris Chotard | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ludovic Ajorque |
| 68' |
Brest |
Remy Labeau Lascary | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Romain Del Castillo |
| 69' |
Brest |
Soumaila Coulibaly | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Romain Del Castillo |
| 70' |
Nice |
Sepe Elye Wahi | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 74' |
Brest |
Joris Chotard | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pathé Mboup |
| 76' |
Brest |
Joris Chotard | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ludovic Ajorque |
| 77' |
Nice |
Kail Boudache | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Hichem Boudaoui |
| 78' |
Brest |
Joris Chotard | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ludovic Ajorque |
| 79' |
Brest |
Kamory Doumbia | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Romain Del Castillo |
| 86' |
Nice |
Ali Abdi | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 86' |
Nice |
Tom Louchet | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 88' |
Nice |
Kevin Omoruyi | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Brest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamory Doumbia AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.86 |
| Joris Chotard DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Daouda Guindo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Ludovic Ajorque FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 0.87 |
| Kenny Lala DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| Brendan Chardonnet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hugo Magnetti DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Grégoire Coudert GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Romain Del Castillo AMR | 88 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.76 | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| Soumaila Coulibaly DC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Remy Labeau Lascary AML | 74 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Pathé Mboup Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Michel Diaz Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Nice
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ali Abdi DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.49 | 0.06 | 0.49 |
| Kojo Peprah Oppong DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Morgan Sanson AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Dante DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jonathan Clauss DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.03 |
| Maxime Dupé GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Sepe Elye Wahi FW | 86 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Sofiane Diop AML | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| Charles Vanhoutte DMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Mohamed Ali-Cho AMR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Salis Abdul Samed DMC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Kail Boudache Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Kevin Omoruyi Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Hichem Boudaoui Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Tom Louchet Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Isak Jansson Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |