Nice v Le Havre — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 12 April 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 11
On target
5 – 5
Shots in box
11 – 9
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.23
Set-piece xG
1.55 – 0.09
Goals − xG
-1.59 – -1.55
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nice win
48.0%
Draw
24.7%
Le Havre win
27.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nice are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDDDLDDLD last 10
scored 6
from 11.6 xG
conceded 12
from 17.5 xG
Le Havre are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDDDDLWLDL last 10
scored 12
from 13.3 xG
conceded 13
from 18.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.54–1.09 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.95–1.14 | 1-1 10% | 60% | 58% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nice 2.59 xGLe Havre 2.55 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nice attacking right
Le Havre attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10' |
 Le Havre |
Simon Ebonog | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Issa Soumaré |
| 12' |
 Nice |
Charles Vanhoutte | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jonathan Clauss |
| 13' |
Le Havre |
Fodé Doucouré | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Yanis Zouaoui |
| 13' |
Le Havre |
Fodé Doucouré | 0.55 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 13' |
Le Havre |
Mbwana Samatta | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Fodé Doucouré |
| 15' |
Nice |
Jonathan Clauss | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mohamed Ali-Cho |
| 15' |
Nice |
Mohamed Ali-Cho | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Hichem Boudaoui |
| 18' |
Le Havre |
Mbwana Samatta | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Issa Soumaré |
| 19' |
Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.62 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yanis Zouaoui |
| 36' |
Nice |
Ali Abdi | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jonathan Clauss |
| 40' |
Le Havre |
Mbwana Samatta | 0.44 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Rassoul Ndiaye |
| 47' |
Nice |
Ali Abdi | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jonathan Clauss |
| 51' |
Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Simon Ebonog |
| 58' |
Nice |
Ali Abdi | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Morgan Sanson |
| 58' |
Nice |
Ali Abdi | 0.84 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 58' |
Nice |
Antoine Mendy | 0.53 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ali Abdi |
| 58' |
Nice |
Morgan Sanson | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 62' |
Le Havre |
Gautier Lloris | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Arouna Sangante |
| 63' |
Nice |
Sepe Elye Wahi | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Charles Vanhoutte |
| 64' |
Le Havre |
Lucas Gourna Douath | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yanis Zouaoui |
| 77' |
Nice |
Sofiane Diop | 0.23 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 80' |
Nice |
Jonathan Clauss | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kevin Omoruyi |
| 81' |
Nice |
Antoine Mendy | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Tom Louchet |
| 83' |
Le Havre |
Mbwana Samatta | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Sofiane Boufal |
| 92' |
Nice |
Kevin Omoruyi | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Isak Jansson |
| 93' |
Nice |
Isak Jansson | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Le Havre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mbwana Samatta FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.86 | 0.00 | 0.99 |
| Issa Soumaré FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.66 | 0.11 | 0.79 |
| Gautier Lloris DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Lucas Gourna Douath MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Arouna Sangante DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1.04 |
| Mory Diaw GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Rassoul Ndiaye AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 0.61 |
| Ayumu Seko DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| Yanis Zouaoui ML | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.94 | 0.96 |
| Simon Ebonog MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 0.88 |
| Fodé Doucouré MR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.85 | 0.38 | 1.29 |
| Sofiane Boufal Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| Timothee Pembele Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Loïc Négo Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stephan Zagadou Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Nice
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Mendy DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Jonathan Clauss DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.09 | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| Sepe Elye Wahi FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Morgan Sanson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.27 |
| Melvin Bard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Kojo Peprah Oppong DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Hichem Boudaoui MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.60 |
| Yehvann Diouf GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Ali Abdi DML | 84 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1.07 | 0.53 | 0.45 |
| Mohamed Ali-Cho FW | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.06 | 0.80 |
| Charles Vanhoutte MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.66 |
| Sofiane Diop Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Kevin Omoruyi Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Tom Louchet Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.00 |
| Isak Jansson Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.11 |