Nice v Le Mans — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 5 September 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 8
On target
2 – 3
Shots in box
5 – 2
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.56 – 0.04
Goals − xG
-0.25 – -0.18
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyNice win
32.0%
model 46.4%
Draw
30.1%
model 22.4%
Le Mans win
37.9%
model 31.2%
Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (777 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 9.7%
- 2-1 9.0%
- 1-2 7.3%
- 2-2 6.8%
- 1-0 6.5%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 65.2% | Under 2.5 | 34.8% |
| BTTS yes | 65.5% | BTTS no | 34.5% |
| Nice 1+ | 84.4% | Nice 2+ | 55.5% |
| Le Mans 1+ | 77.6% | Le Mans 2+ | 44.1% |
Expected goals 1.86 – 1.50. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
AI confidence
83/100
Data quality
100/100
Model agreement
83%
★ Best pick
3-6 goals
Multi goal · usually 51%
59.0% fair odds 1.70
moderate signal · 1564 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Under 2.5 in 1st half
Over/Under 1HT · usually 88%
83.3% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 384 settled matches behind the band
Positive factors
- Le Mans carry the stronger rating, 1603 Elo against 1454.
- Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Nice were missing 0.90 expected goal involvements a match against 0.20.
Risk factors
- The component models disagree more than usual (agreement 0.83).
Why the model thinks this
The price
Le Mans have an estimated 37.9% win probability, against 32.0% for Nice and 30.1% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.86 for Nice and 1.50 for Le Mans.
Why Nice
At home Nice average 1.20 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 30.1%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.
Why Le Mans can win
Le Mans carry the stronger rating, 1603 Elo against 1454. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Nice were missing 0.90 expected goal involvements a match against 0.20.
Key players
Nice's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Sepe Elye Wahi (0.31), Jonathan Clauss (0.30), Mohamed Ali-Cho (0.29). Le Mans's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Louis Mafouta (0.65), Dame Gueye (0.36), Lucas Buades (0.21).
Availability
2 of Nice's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Nice's last eleven are new to the club this window.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Nice: 48% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 16.2 faced, 0.33 xG a match from set pieces. Le Mans: 47% possession, 10.4 shots a match, 14.0 faced, 0.25 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 21:18 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Le Mans are the model's most likely outcome at 37.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 9.7%. Confidence 83/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nice are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDDDLDDLD last 10
scored 6
from 11.6 xG
conceded 12
from 17.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.86–1.50 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| ai-blend-oos | 1.40–1.57 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg | 2.67–1.43 | 2-1 8% | 78% | 71% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.37–0.94 | 2-0 10% | 64% | 55% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice to win | 46.4% | 48.9% | 46.0% | 1.06× | 2.05 |
| Le Mans to win | 31.2% | 28.4% | 31.3% | 0.91× | 3.52 |
| Draw | 22.4% | 21.5% | 22.8% | 0.94× | 4.65 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice & both teams score | 27.5% | 26.5% | 22.2% | 1.19× | 3.78 |
| Le Mans & both teams score | 19.1% | 18.1% | 15.4% | 1.17× | 5.52 |
| Nice & not both score | 18.9% | 18.1% | 23.9% | 0.76× | 5.52 |
| Draw & both teams score | 18.9% | 18.1% | 16.4% | 1.11× | 5.52 |
| Le Mans & not both score | 12.1% | 11.7% | 16.1% | 0.73× | 8.56 |
| Draw & not both score | 3.5% | 3.5% | 6.6% | 0.52× | 28.95 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice & over 1.5 | 39.9% | 37.4% | 36.1% | 1.04× | 2.67 |
| Nice & over 2.5 | 33.9% | 33.8% | 28.5% | 1.19× | 2.96 |
| Le Mans & over 1.5 | 26.0% | 25.3% | 25.2% | 1.00× | 3.95 |
| Nice & under 3.5 | 25.3% | 25.3% | 29.1% | 0.87× | 3.96 |
| Le Mans & over 2.5 | 22.1% | 21.7% | 19.5% | 1.11× | 4.60 |
| Nice & over 3.5 | 21.1% | 21.7% | 17.0% | 1.28× | 4.60 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 18.9% | 17.6% | 16.4% | 1.07× | 5.68 |
| Le Mans & under 3.5 | 18.3% | 17.6% | 20.5% | 0.86× | 5.68 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 13.2% | 12.6% | 16.5% | 0.77× | 7.91 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 13.2% | 12.6% | 16.5% | 0.77× | 7.91 |
| Le Mans & over 3.5 | 12.9% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 1.15× | 7.91 |
| Nice & under 2.5 | 12.5% | 12.6% | 17.6% | 0.72× | 7.91 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 9.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 1.13× | 13.70 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 9.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 1.13× | 13.70 |
| Le Mans & under 2.5 | 9.1% | 7.3% | 12.0% | 0.61× | 13.70 |
| Nice & under 1.5 | 6.5% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 0.72× | 13.72 |
| Le Mans & under 1.5 | 5.2% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 1.16× | 13.72 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 3.5% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 0.69× | 21.87 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice (1UP) | 64.4% | 63.7% | 58.4% | 1.09× | 1.57 |
| Le Mans (1UP) | 51.7% | 52.1% | 49.1% | 1.06× | 1.92 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice (2UP) | 46.4% | 49.8% | 47.6% | 1.05× | 2.01 |
| Le Mans (2UP) | 31.2% | 30.4% | 33.7% | 0.90× | 3.29 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice to win 2nd half | 35.2% | 37.1% | 42.5% | 0.87× | 2.69 |
| 2nd half drawn | 32.6% | 33.9% | 30.9% | 1.10× | 2.95 |
| Le Mans to win 2nd half | 32.2% | 33.9% | 26.8% | 1.27× | 2.95 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans (+2.5) | 88.4% | 89.2% | 89.9% | 0.99× | 1.12 |
| Le Mans (+1.5) | 74.4% | 73.0% | 74.8% | 0.98× | 1.37 |
| Nice (+0.5) | 68.8% | 69.2% | 68.7% | 1.01× | 1.45 |
| Le Mans (+0.5) | 53.6% | 51.9% | 54.0% | 0.96× | 1.93 |
| Nice (-0.5) | 46.4% | 48.1% | 46.0% | 1.05× | 2.08 |
| Le Mans (-0.5) | 31.2% | 30.8% | 31.3% | 0.98× | 3.24 |
| Nice (-1.5) | 25.6% | 27.0% | 25.2% | 1.07× | 3.70 |
| Nice (-2.5) | 11.6% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 1.07× | 9.28 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans to concede | 84.4% | 85.4% | 77.5% | 1.10× | 1.17 |
| Le Mans clean sheet | 15.6% | 14.6% | 22.5% | 0.65× | 6.86 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans to concede in 1st half | 60.1% | 59.2% | 47.6% | 1.25× | 1.69 |
| Le Mans clean sheet in 1st half | 39.9% | 40.8% | 52.4% | 0.78× | 2.45 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans over 2.5 corners | 79.0% | 75.8% | — | — | 1.32 |
| Le Mans under 6.5 corners | 72.0% | 72.3% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Le Mans over 3.5 corners | 65.3% | 68.2% | — | — | 1.47 |
| Le Mans under 5.5 corners | 61.3% | 61.4% | — | — | 1.63 |
| Le Mans over 4.5 corners | 51.4% | 52.4% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Le Mans under 4.5 corners | 48.6% | 47.6% | — | — | 2.10 |
| Le Mans over 5.5 corners | 38.7% | 38.6% | — | — | 2.59 |
| Le Mans under 3.5 corners | 34.7% | 31.8% | — | — | 3.15 |
| Le Mans over 6.5 corners | 28.0% | 27.7% | — | — | 3.61 |
| Le Mans under 2.5 corners | 21.1% | 24.2% | — | — | 4.14 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans under 3.5 goals | 93.5% | 93.1% | 93.5% | 0.99× | 1.08 |
| Le Mans under 2.5 goals | 81.0% | 82.5% | 84.7% | 0.97× | 1.21 |
| Le Mans over 0.5 goals | 77.6% | 75.2% | 69.6% | 1.08× | 1.33 |
| Le Mans under 1.5 goals | 55.9% | 57.4% | 63.5% | 0.90× | 1.74 |
| Le Mans over 1.5 goals | 44.1% | 42.6% | 36.5% | 1.17× | 2.35 |
| Le Mans under 0.5 goals | 22.4% | 24.8% | 30.4% | 0.82× | 4.03 |
| Le Mans over 2.5 goals | 19.0% | 17.5% | 15.3% | 1.15× | 5.71 |
| Le Mans over 3.5 goals | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 1.08× | 14.40 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans under 1.5 in 1st half | 87.5% | 87.6% | 87.6% | 1.00× | 1.14 |
| Le Mans under 0.5 in 1st half | 54.4% | 50.5% | 57.6% | 0.88× | 1.98 |
| Le Mans over 0.5 in 1st half | 45.6% | 49.5% | 42.4% | 1.17× | 2.02 |
| Le Mans over 1.5 in 1st half | 12.5% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 1.00× | 8.07 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice (away no bet) | 67.4% | 71.3% | 66.8% | 1.07× | 1.40 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 32.6% | 28.7% | 33.2% | 0.87× | 3.48 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans even goals | 52.5% | 52.1% | 56.4% | 0.92× | 1.92 |
| Le Mans odd goals | 47.5% | 47.9% | 43.6% | 1.10× | 2.09 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 75.4% | 79.5% | 83.2% | 0.96× | 1.26 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 24.6% | 20.5% | 16.9% | 1.22× | 4.88 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 75.1% | 72.9% | 65.4% | 1.12× | 1.37 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 24.9% | 27.1% | 34.6% | 0.78× | 3.69 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 66.4% | 64.7% | 60.3% | 1.07× | 1.55 |
| Nice to score 2+ in a row | 44.6% | 44.9% | 38.4% | 1.17× | 2.23 |
| Le Mans to score 2+ in a row | 32.4% | 33.7% | 27.9% | 1.21× | 2.97 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 27.1% | 25.0% | 22.7% | 1.10× | 4.00 |
| Nice to score 3+ in a row | 17.7% | 17.9% | 14.2% | 1.26× | 5.60 |
| Le Mans to score 3+ in a row | 10.1% | 12.2% | 9.1% | 1.34× | 8.18 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice corners (+3.5) | 83.6% | 80.0% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Nice corners (+2.5) | 77.4% | 75.5% | — | — | 1.33 |
| Le Mans corners (+3.5) | 73.6% | 69.9% | — | — | 1.43 |
| Nice corners (+1.5) | 69.9% | 66.8% | — | — | 1.50 |
| Le Mans corners (+2.5) | 65.9% | 66.8% | — | — | 1.50 |
| Le Mans corners (+1.5) | 57.1% | 56.8% | — | — | 1.76 |
| Nice corners (-1.5) | 42.9% | 43.2% | — | — | 2.31 |
| Nice corners (-2.5) | 34.1% | 33.2% | — | — | 3.01 |
| Le Mans corners (-1.5) | 30.1% | 33.2% | — | — | 3.01 |
| Nice corners (-3.5) | 26.4% | 30.1% | — | — | 3.32 |
| Le Mans corners (-2.5) | 22.6% | 24.5% | — | — | 4.08 |
| Le Mans corners (-3.5) | 16.4% | 20.0% | — | — | 5.00 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12+ corners | 41.1% | 37.0% | — | — | 2.70 |
| 0-8 corners | 32.6% | 32.0% | — | — | 3.13 |
| 9-11 corners | 26.3% | 31.8% | — | — | 3.15 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 7.5 corners | 75.8% | 76.6% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 67.4% | 67.9% | — | — | 1.47 |
| Under 12.5 corners | 66.7% | 67.9% | — | — | 1.47 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 58.9% | 57.8% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 58.5% | 57.8% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 50.4% | 52.2% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 49.6% | 47.8% | — | — | 2.09 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 41.5% | 42.2% | — | — | 2.37 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 41.1% | 42.2% | — | — | 2.37 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 33.3% | 32.1% | — | — | 3.12 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 32.6% | 32.1% | — | — | 3.12 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 24.2% | 23.4% | — | — | 4.27 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 50.4% | — | — | 1.98 |
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 49.6% | — | — | 2.02 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 9.7% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 0.73× | 13.53 |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 0.92× | 13.53 |
| 1-2 | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 1.17× | 13.54 |
| 1-0 | 6.5% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 0.73× | 13.54 |
| 2-2 | 6.8% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 1.51× | 13.54 |
| 2-0 | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 0.96× | 13.54 |
| Any other score | 5.8% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 1.47× | 13.55 |
| 3-1 | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 1.17× | 13.55 |
| 0-1 | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 1.17× | 13.55 |
| 0-0 | 3.5% | 1.8% | 6.6% | 0.27× | 56.83 |
| 0-2 | 3.9% | 1.8% | 5.8% | 0.30× | 56.82 |
| 1-3 | 3.6% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 0.51× | 56.83 |
| 3-0 | 3.7% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 0.47× | 56.82 |
| 3-2 | 4.2% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 0.62× | 56.81 |
| 2-3 | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.02× | 56.84 |
| 4-1 | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 0.86× | 56.86 |
| 0-3 | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 0.70× | 56.88 |
| 1-4 | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.12× | 56.90 |
| 2-4 | 1.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 2.23× | 56.90 |
| 3-3 | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.12× | 56.87 |
| 4-0 | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.01× | 56.88 |
| 4-2 | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.12× | 56.88 |
| 0-4 | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.12× | 56.91 |
| 3-4 | 0.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 2.23× | 56.91 |
| 4-3 | 1.0% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 5.58× | 56.91 |
| 4-4 | 0.4% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 5.58× | 56.92 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice leading at HT (DNB) | 63.9% | 64.2% | 53.7% | 1.20× | 1.56 |
| Le Mans leading at HT (DNB) | 36.1% | 35.8% | 46.3% | 0.77× | 2.80 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice or Le Mans (12) | 77.6% | 78.5% | 77.2% | 1.02× | 1.27 |
| Nice or draw (1X) | 68.8% | 71.6% | 68.7% | 1.04× | 1.40 |
| Le Mans or draw (X2) | 53.6% | 51.1% | 54.0% | 0.95× | 1.96 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice or draw at HT | 76.8% | 78.3% | 71.5% | 1.09× | 1.28 |
| Nice or Le Mans at HT | 64.3% | 63.3% | 61.4% | 1.03× | 1.58 |
| Le Mans or draw at HT | 58.9% | 58.4% | 66.9% | 0.87× | 1.71 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice or draw (1UP) | 68.8% | 75.0% | 72.9% | 1.03× | 1.33 |
| Le Mans or draw (1UP) | 53.6% | 58.6% | 61.9% | 0.95× | 1.71 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice or draw in 2nd half | 67.8% | 66.1% | 73.2% | 0.90× | 1.51 |
| Nice or Le Mans in 2nd half | 67.4% | 66.1% | 69.1% | 0.96× | 1.51 |
| Le Mans or draw in 2nd half | 64.8% | 62.9% | 57.5% | 1.09× | 1.59 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 56.6% | 57.5% | 56.5% | 1.02× | 1.74 |
| Neither half drawn | 43.4% | 42.5% | 43.5% | 0.98× | 2.35 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice (DNB) | 59.8% | 63.6% | 59.5% | 1.07× | 1.57 |
| Le Mans (DNB) | 40.2% | 36.4% | 40.5% | 0.90× | 2.75 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice to score first | 53.5% | 53.6% | 49.6% | 1.08× | 1.87 |
| Le Mans to score first | 43.0% | 41.4% | 43.9% | 0.94× | 2.42 |
| No goal scored | 3.5% | 3.8% | 6.6% | 0.58× | 25.99 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 65.5% | 58.2% | 53.7% | 1.08× | 1.72 |
| Not both teams to score | 34.5% | 41.8% | 46.3% | 0.90× | 2.39 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both score & over 2.5 | 55.8% | 51.2% | 43.8% | 1.17× | 1.95 |
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 25.1% | 31.2% | 35.9% | 0.87× | 3.20 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 9.7% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 0.85× | 11.71 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 9.4% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 0.81× | 11.72 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 75.5% | 82.0% | 84.9% | 0.97× | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 24.5% | 18.0% | 15.1% | 1.19× | 5.55 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 64.1% | 65.3% | 70.1% | 0.93× | 1.53 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 35.9% | 34.7% | 29.9% | 1.16× | 2.88 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 46.5% | 53.7% | 57.8% | 0.93× | 1.86 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 26.0% | 24.9% | 23.8% | 1.05× | 4.02 |
| Both score 1st half only | 17.6% | 18.0% | 12.4% | 1.44× | 5.57 |
| Both score in both halves | 9.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 1.05× | 15.13 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 72.6% | 74.4% | 81.4% | 0.91× | 1.34 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 27.4% | 25.6% | 18.6% | 1.38× | 3.91 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A goal in each half | 65.7% | 66.5% | 59.5% | 1.12× | 1.51 |
| A half without a goal | 34.3% | 33.5% | 40.5% | 0.83× | 2.98 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 41.6% | 43.4% | 43.3% | 1.00× | 2.30 |
| 4-6 goals | 37.7% | 35.5% | 30.9% | 1.15× | 2.82 |
| 0-1 goals | 15.2% | 20.8% | 22.7% | 0.92× | 4.80 |
| 7+ goals | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.52× | 18.96 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans to score exactly 1 | 33.5% | 33.5% | 33.2% | 1.01× | 2.99 |
| Le Mans to score exactly 2 | 25.1% | 26.6% | 21.4% | 1.24× | 3.76 |
| Le Mans to score exactly 0 | 22.4% | 24.1% | 30.4% | 0.79× | 4.14 |
| Le Mans to score 3+ | 19.0% | 18.1% | 15.3% | 1.19× | 5.52 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice to score exactly 1 | 28.9% | 27.5% | 31.7% | 0.87× | 3.63 |
| Nice to score 3+ | 28.6% | 27.5% | 23.2% | 1.19× | 3.63 |
| Nice to score exactly 2 | 26.9% | 27.5% | 23.0% | 1.20× | 3.64 |
| Nice to score exactly 0 | 15.6% | 18.1% | 22.5% | 0.80× | 5.53 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice leading at HT | 41.1% | 41.6% | 33.1% | 1.26× | 2.41 |
| Draw at HT | 35.7% | 36.7% | 38.6% | 0.95× | 2.72 |
| Le Mans leading at HT | 23.2% | 21.7% | 28.5% | 0.76× | 4.60 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice -1: 2 | 53.6% | 51.8% | — | — | 1.93 |
| Nice -1: 1 | 25.6% | 26.9% | — | — | 3.71 |
| Nice -1: X | 20.8% | 23.7% | — | — | 4.22 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans (0:1) | 53.6% | 54.0% | 54.0% | 1.00× | 1.85 |
| Nice (0:1) | 25.6% | 25.7% | 25.2% | 1.02× | 3.89 |
| Draw (0:1) | 20.8% | 24.0% | 20.9% | 1.15× | 4.16 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans (0:2) | 74.4% | 73.5% | 74.8% | 0.98× | 1.36 |
| Draw (0:2) | 14.0% | 11.7% | 15.3% | 0.77× | 8.52 |
| Nice (0:2) | 11.6% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 1.16× | 8.58 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans (0:3) | 88.4% | 88.6% | 89.9% | 0.99× | 1.13 |
| Draw (0:3) | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 1.11× | 14.63 |
| Nice (0:3) | 4.4% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 0.51× | 48.20 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans (0:4) | 95.6% | 98.4% | 95.9% | 1.03× | 1.02 |
| Draw (0:4) | 3.0% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 0.40× | 92.59 |
| Nice (0:4) | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 0.68× | 93.81 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice (1:0) | 68.8% | 70.7% | 68.7% | 1.03× | 1.42 |
| Draw (1:0) | 16.7% | 17.0% | 14.6% | 1.16× | 5.90 |
| Le Mans (1:0) | 14.5% | 11.4% | 16.9% | 0.68× | 8.75 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice (2:0) | 85.5% | 90.2% | 83.2% | 1.08× | 1.11 |
| Draw (2:0) | 9.0% | 6.5% | 9.9% | 0.66× | 15.35 |
| Le Mans (2:0) | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 0.91× | 15.58 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 45.0% | 48.7% | 47.2% | 1.03× | 2.05 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 32.4% | 25.4% | 26.6% | 0.96× | 3.93 |
| Halves equal | 22.6% | 23.4% | 26.3% | 0.89× | 4.28 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice to concede | 77.6% | 76.7% | 69.6% | 1.10× | 1.30 |
| Nice clean sheet | 22.4% | 23.3% | 30.4% | 0.77× | 4.29 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice clean sheet in 1st half | 54.4% | 50.5% | 57.6% | 0.88× | 1.98 |
| Nice to concede in 1st half | 45.6% | 49.5% | 42.4% | 1.17× | 2.02 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice over 2.5 corners | 84.5% | 81.4% | — | — | 1.23 |
| Nice over 3.5 corners | 73.2% | 71.5% | — | — | 1.40 |
| Nice under 6.5 corners | 62.8% | 62.0% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Nice over 4.5 corners | 60.7% | 62.0% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Nice under 5.5 corners | 51.6% | 53.0% | — | — | 1.89 |
| Nice over 5.5 corners | 48.4% | 47.0% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Nice under 4.5 corners | 39.3% | 38.0% | — | — | 2.63 |
| Nice over 6.5 corners | 37.2% | 38.0% | — | — | 2.63 |
| Nice under 3.5 corners | 26.8% | 28.5% | — | — | 3.51 |
| Nice under 2.5 corners | 15.5% | 18.6% | — | — | 5.36 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice under 3.5 goals | 88.1% | 88.3% | 91.7% | 0.96× | 1.13 |
| Nice over 0.5 goals | 84.4% | 82.9% | 77.5% | 1.07× | 1.21 |
| Nice under 2.5 goals | 71.4% | 72.0% | 76.9% | 0.94× | 1.39 |
| Nice over 1.5 goals | 55.5% | 56.1% | 46.0% | 1.22× | 1.78 |
| Nice under 1.5 goals | 44.5% | 43.9% | 54.0% | 0.81× | 2.28 |
| Nice over 2.5 goals | 28.6% | 28.0% | 23.2% | 1.21× | 3.57 |
| Nice under 0.5 goals | 15.6% | 17.2% | 22.5% | 0.76× | 5.83 |
| Nice over 3.5 goals | 11.9% | 11.7% | 8.3% | 1.40× | 8.55 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice under 1.5 in 1st half | 76.6% | 77.7% | 87.2% | 0.89× | 1.29 |
| Nice over 0.5 in 1st half | 60.1% | 59.0% | 47.6% | 1.24× | 1.70 |
| Nice under 0.5 in 1st half | 39.9% | 41.0% | 52.4% | 0.78× | 2.44 |
| Nice over 1.5 in 1st half | 23.4% | 22.3% | 12.8% | 1.75× | 4.49 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans (home no bet) | 58.2% | 55.5% | 57.8% | 0.96× | 1.80 |
| Draw (home no bet) | 41.8% | 44.5% | 42.2% | 1.06× | 2.25 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice even goals | 51.2% | 50.1% | 51.3% | 0.98× | 2.00 |
| Nice odd goals | 48.8% | 49.9% | 48.7% | 1.02× | 2.01 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 21.7% | 22.6% | 28.7% | 0.79× | 4.42 |
| HT 1-0 | 19.9% | 19.2% | 21.3% | 0.90× | 5.22 |
| HT 0-1 | 13.2% | 11.2% | 16.9% | 0.67× | 8.91 |
| HT 1-1 | 12.1% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 1.19× | 8.93 |
| HT 2-0 | 9.2% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 1.16× | 13.01 |
| Any other HT score | 8.8% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 1.63× | 13.01 |
| HT 2-1 | 5.6% | 7.7% | 3.3% | 2.32× | 13.06 |
| HT 0-2 | 4.0% | 2.5% | 5.5% | 0.45× | 40.15 |
| HT 1-2 | 3.7% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 0.61× | 40.17 |
| HT 2-2 | 1.7% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 3.15× | 40.29 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice at HT / Nice at FT | 31.4% | 33.8% | 27.7% | 1.22× | 2.96 |
| Le Mans at HT / Le Mans at FT | 16.5% | 16.7% | 18.9% | 0.88× | 6.00 |
| Draw at HT / Nice at FT | 12.6% | 12.0% | 15.0% | 0.80× | 8.33 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 11.6% | 12.0% | 12.9% | 0.93× | 8.33 |
| Draw at HT / Le Mans at FT | 11.5% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 1.09× | 8.34 |
| Nice at HT / Draw at FT | 6.5% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 1.66× | 15.33 |
| Le Mans at HT / Draw at FT | 4.3% | 3.4% | 6.3% | 0.54× | 29.14 |
| Nice at HT / Le Mans at FT | 3.2% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.98× | 29.19 |
| Le Mans at HT / Nice at FT | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 0.94× | 29.22 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice to score last | 53.5% | 53.7% | 53.1% | 1.01× | 1.86 |
| Le Mans to score last | 43.0% | 40.4% | 40.5% | 1.00× | 2.47 |
| No goal scored | 3.5% | 3.8% | 6.6% | 0.58× | 25.99 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 96.5% | 96.2% | 93.4% | 1.03× | 1.04 |
| Nice to lead by 1 at any time | 64.4% | 64.2% | 58.4% | 1.10× | 1.56 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 55.4% | 59.8% | 51.3% | 1.16× | 1.67 |
| Le Mans to lead by 1 at any time | 51.7% | 50.7% | 49.1% | 1.03× | 1.97 |
| Nice to lead by 2 at any time | 33.9% | 32.1% | 29.8% | 1.08× | 3.12 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 22.5% | 19.7% | 20.2% | 0.98× | 5.08 |
| Le Mans to lead by 2 at any time | 21.9% | 19.7% | 21.7% | 0.91× | 5.08 |
| Nice to lead by 3 at any time | 14.8% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 0.94× | 8.87 |
| Le Mans to lead by 3 at any time | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 0.84× | 14.20 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice most corners | 52.1% | 52.9% | — | — | 1.89 |
| Le Mans most corners | 38.7% | 38.6% | — | — | 2.59 |
| Corners level | 9.2% | 8.4% | — | — | 11.89 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 84.1% | 82.5% | 85.0% | 0.97× | 1.21 |
| 2-6 goals | 79.3% | 78.9% | 74.0% | 1.07× | 1.27 |
| 2-5 goals | 72.4% | 73.5% | 69.0% | 1.07× | 1.36 |
| 1-4 goals | 71.7% | 73.5% | 76.5% | 0.96× | 1.36 |
| 2-4 goals | 60.0% | 62.7% | 60.5% | 1.04× | 1.60 |
| 3-6 goals | 59.7% | 59.0% | 50.9% | 1.16× | 1.70 |
| 1-3 goals | 53.3% | 52.0% | 59.4% | 0.88× | 1.92 |
| 3-5 goals | 52.8% | 52.0% | 45.8% | 1.13× | 1.92 |
| 2-3 goals | 41.6% | 43.5% | 43.3% | 1.00× | 2.30 |
| 3-4 goals | 40.4% | 43.5% | 37.3% | 1.17× | 2.30 |
| 4-6 goals | 37.7% | 39.2% | 30.9% | 1.27× | 2.55 |
| 1-2 goals | 31.3% | 33.9% | 39.4% | 0.86× | 2.95 |
| 4-5 goals | 30.8% | 33.9% | 25.8% | 1.31× | 2.95 |
| 5-6 goals | 19.3% | 17.6% | 13.7% | 1.28× | 5.68 |
| 7+ goals | 5.5% | 8.0% | 3.5% | 2.32× | 12.44 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice never behind | 44.8% | 50.6% | 50.9% | 1.00× | 1.98 |
| Le Mans never behind | 32.2% | 36.4% | 41.6% | 0.88× | 2.74 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 49.9% | 50.4% | 47.1% | 1.07× | 1.99 |
| Even number of goals | 50.1% | 49.6% | 52.9% | 0.94× | 2.01 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 52.4% | 51.2% | 51.8% | 0.99× | 1.95 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 47.6% | 48.8% | 48.2% | 1.01× | 2.05 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 51.3% | 51.7% | 49.3% | 1.05× | 1.93 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 48.7% | 48.3% | 50.7% | 0.95× | 2.07 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 96.5% | 96.3% | 93.4% | 1.03× | 1.04 |
| Under 5.5 goals | 87.6% | 89.3% | 91.5% | 0.98× | 1.12 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.8% | 81.1% | 77.3% | 1.05× | 1.23 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 75.2% | 78.3% | 83.0% | 0.94× | 1.28 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.2% | 65.6% | 54.2% | 1.21× | 1.53 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 56.8% | 57.3% | 65.8% | 0.87× | 1.74 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.2% | 42.7% | 34.2% | 1.25× | 2.34 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.8% | 34.4% | 45.8% | 0.75× | 2.90 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 24.8% | 21.7% | 17.0% | 1.28× | 4.61 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15.2% | 18.9% | 22.7% | 0.83× | 5.28 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 12.4% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 1.26× | 9.34 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 3.5% | 3.7% | 6.6% | 0.56× | 26.96 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 94.1% | 93.1% | 96.4% | 0.97× | 1.07 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 85.9% | 88.6% | 90.7% | 0.98× | 1.13 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 81.1% | 81.2% | 70.5% | 1.15× | 1.23 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 69.6% | 68.4% | 79.5% | 0.86× | 1.46 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 55.4% | 55.6% | 42.7% | 1.30× | 1.80 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 44.6% | 44.4% | 57.3% | 0.78× | 2.25 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 30.4% | 31.6% | 20.5% | 1.54× | 3.16 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 18.9% | 18.8% | 29.5% | 0.64× | 5.31 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 14.1% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 1.22× | 8.81 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 5.9% | 6.9% | 3.6% | 1.88× | 14.56 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 80.2% | 83.3% | 87.6% | 0.95× | 1.20 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 78.3% | 78.0% | 71.3% | 1.09× | 1.28 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 54.9% | 58.0% | 66.5% | 0.87× | 1.72 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 45.1% | 42.0% | 33.5% | 1.25× | 2.38 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 21.7% | 22.0% | 28.7% | 0.77× | 4.56 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 19.8% | 16.7% | 12.4% | 1.34× | 5.98 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 83.9% | 82.2% | 81.6% | 1.01× | 1.22 |
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 72.3% | 76.3% | 75.3% | 1.01× | 1.31 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 45.4% | 51.8% | 51.3% | 1.01× | 1.93 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 54.6% | 48.2% | 48.7% | 0.99× | 2.07 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 27.7% | 23.7% | 24.7% | 0.96× | 4.22 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 16.1% | 17.8% | 18.4% | 0.97× | 5.61 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans not to score in both halves | 73.2% | 70.5% | 77.6% | 0.91× | 1.42 |
| Nice not to score in both halves | 63.3% | 62.7% | 68.0% | 0.92× | 1.60 |
| Nice to score in both halves | 36.7% | 37.3% | 32.0% | 1.17× | 2.68 |
| Le Mans to score in both halves | 26.8% | 29.5% | 22.4% | 1.32× | 3.39 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 65.5% | 60.2% | 53.7% | 1.12× | 1.66 |
| Only Nice scores | 18.9% | 17.3% | 23.9% | 0.72× | 5.80 |
| Only Le Mans scores | 12.1% | 10.2% | 16.1% | 0.64× | 9.77 |
| Neither team scores | 3.5% | 3.6% | 6.6% | 0.55× | 27.63 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 3 goals | 22.0% | 21.6% | 20.2% | 1.07× | 4.63 |
| Exactly 2 goals | 19.6% | 18.7% | 23.3% | 0.80× | 5.36 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 18.4% | 18.6% | 17.3% | 1.08× | 5.37 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 12.4% | 12.5% | 8.7% | 1.45× | 7.99 |
| 6 or more goals | 12.4% | 12.5% | 8.5% | 1.47× | 7.99 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 11.7% | 12.5% | 16.2% | 0.77× | 7.99 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 3.5% | 3.8% | 6.6% | 0.57× | 26.44 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 54.6% | 47.8% | 48.7% | 0.98× | 2.09 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 29.4% | 28.6% | 33.1% | 0.87× | 3.49 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 16.1% | 18.2% | 18.4% | 0.99× | 5.48 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans not to win both halves | 92.5% | 93.4% | 90.7% | 1.03× | 1.07 |
| Nice not to win both halves | 85.5% | 87.3% | 83.2% | 1.05× | 1.15 |
| Nice to win both halves | 14.5% | 12.7% | 16.9% | 0.75× | 7.89 |
| Le Mans to win both halves | 7.5% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 0.71× | 15.17 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice to win either half | 61.9% | 63.7% | 58.7% | 1.08× | 1.57 |
| Le Mans to win neither half | 52.1% | 54.0% | 54.0% | 1.00× | 1.85 |
| Le Mans to win either half | 47.9% | 46.0% | 46.0% | 1.00× | 2.17 |
| Nice to win neither half | 38.1% | 36.3% | 41.3% | 0.88× | 2.76 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans not to win to nil | 87.9% | 88.9% | 83.9% | 1.06× | 1.13 |
| Nice not to win to nil | 81.1% | 82.4% | 76.1% | 1.08× | 1.21 |
| Nice to win to nil | 18.9% | 17.6% | 23.9% | 0.73× | 5.69 |
| Le Mans to win to nil | 12.1% | 11.1% | 16.1% | 0.69× | 9.02 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 22.4% | 23.9% | 22.8% | 1.05× | 4.19 |
| Nice by 1 | 20.8% | 23.9% | 20.9% | 1.14× | 4.19 |
| Le Mans by 1 | 16.7% | 17.3% | 14.6% | 1.18× | 5.78 |
| Nice by 2 | 14.0% | 12.0% | 15.3% | 0.79× | 8.34 |
| Nice by 3+ | 11.6% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 1.19× | 8.36 |
| Le Mans by 2 | 9.0% | 6.9% | 9.9% | 0.70× | 14.47 |
| Le Mans by 3+ | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 0.97× | 14.57 |
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nice 1.25 xGLe Mans 1.18 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nice attacking right
Le Mans attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Le Mans |
Jean Vercruysse | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alexandre Lauray |
| 11' |
Le Mans |
Alexandre Lauray | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lucas Calodat |
| 12' |
Le Mans |
Adil Bourabaa | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jean Vercruysse |
| 28' |
 Nice |
Axel Witsel | 0.44 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jonathan Clauss |
| 43' |
Nice |
Axel Witsel | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sofiane Diop |
| 43' |
Nice |
Sepe Elye Wahi | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Sofiane Diop |
| 46' |
Nice |
Sepe Elye Wahi | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 52' |
Le Mans |
Dame Gueye | 0.36 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Lucas Calodat |
| 56' |
Le Mans |
Alexandre Lauray | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 66' |
Nice |
Mohamed Abdelmonem | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Gauthier Hein |
| 72' |
Nice |
Mohammed Amoura | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gauthier Hein |
| 77' |
Nice |
Djibril Coulibaly | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Xavier Mandza |
| 78' |
Nice |
Jonathan Clauss | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 86' |
Le Mans |
Louis Mafouta | 0.66 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Antoine Rabillard |
| 92' |
Le Mans |
Habib Diallo | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Billal Brahimi |
| 93' |
Le Mans |
Harold Voyer | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Yasser Larouci |
Players
Nice
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sepe Elye Wahi FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Mohamed Abdelmonem DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Djibril Coulibaly MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Youssouf Ndayishimiye DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Xavier Mandza DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Yehvann Diouf GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jonathan Clauss DMR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.44 | 0.02 |
| Axel Witsel MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Niels Nkounkou DML | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sofiane Diop AMC | 66 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Nathan N'Goumou Minpol AMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Mohammed Amoura Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Gauthier Hein Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0.12 |
| Antoine Mendy Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ali Abdi Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aboulaye Camara Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Le Mans
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Mafouta FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.66 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Alexandre Lauray DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.44 |
| Harold Voyer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Ewan Hatfout GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rayan Bamba MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Noa Boissé DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Lucas Calodat ML | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| Adil Bourabaa MC | 71 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Dame Gueye FW | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Jean Vercruysse MC | 62 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| Raúl Torrente DC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Habib Diallo Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Antoine Rabillard Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.66 | 0.66 |
| Samuel Yohou Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Billal Brahimi Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Yasser Larouci Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |