Nice v Lille — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 29 October 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 21
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
4 – 9
xG per shot
0.22 – 0.03
Set-piece xG
1.10 – 0.13
Goals − xG
+0.26 – -0.66
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Nice win
36.8%
Draw
20.8%
Lille win
42.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Nice are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDDDLDDLD last 10
scored 6
from 11.6 xG
conceded 12
from 17.5 xG
Lille are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWDWLWDW last 10
scored 15
from 15.0 xG
conceded 5
from 11.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.56–1.70 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.71–1.61 | 1-1 10% | 64% | 65% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Nice 1.74 xGLille 0.66 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Nice attacking right
Lille attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Lille |
Thomas Meunier | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Hákon Haraldsson |
| 7' |
 Nice |
Tiago Gouveia | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 9' |
Lille |
Hamza Igamane | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ayyoub Bouaddi |
| 10' |
Lille |
Felix Correia | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Matias Fernandez-Pardo |
| 11' |
Lille |
Benjamin André | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Romain Perraud |
| 21' |
Nice |
Sofiane Diop | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jeremie Boga |
| 24' |
Lille |
Hamza Igamane | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
Lille |
Hamza Igamane | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Romain Perraud |
| 25' |
Lille |
Hákon Haraldsson | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matias Fernandez-Pardo |
| 25' |
Lille |
Nathan Ngoy | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Hákon Haraldsson |
| 28' |
Nice |
Sofiane Diop | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 34' |
Lille |
Thomas Meunier | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 39' |
Lille |
Romain Perraud | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Aissa Mandi |
| 41' |
Lille |
Aissa Mandi | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Matias Fernandez-Pardo |
| 43' |
Lille |
Hamza Igamane | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ayyoub Bouaddi |
| 45' |
Lille |
Matias Fernandez-Pardo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Aissa Mandi |
| 46' |
Nice |
Sofiane Diop | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Melvin Bard |
| 52' |
Lille |
Hamza Igamane | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Romain Perraud |
| 56' |
Lille |
Thomas Meunier | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 65' |
Lille |
Benjamin André | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Felix Correia |
| 72' |
Lille |
Hákon Haraldsson | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Matias Fernandez-Pardo |
| 76' |
Lille |
Hákon Haraldsson | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Benjamin André |
| 77' |
Nice |
Isak Jansson | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Hichem Boudaoui |
| 82' |
Nice |
Kojo Peprah Oppong | 0.34 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Tom Louchet |
| 86' |
Lille |
Olivier Giroud | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Romain Perraud |
| 86' |
Nice |
Isak Jansson | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Morgan Sanson |
| 91' |
Nice |
Isak Jansson | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Sanson |
| 92' |
Lille |
Romain Perraud | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Osame Sahraoui |
| 95' |
Lille |
Nabil Bentaleb | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Lille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Meunier DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Romain Perraud DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.28 |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.02 | 0.14 | 0.32 |
| Aissa Mandi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.21 |
| Nathan Ngoy DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Arnaud Bodart GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Hákon Haraldsson AMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 0.29 |
| Benjamin André DMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.27 |
| Hamza Igamane FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Felix Correia AMR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.19 |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi DMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.23 |
| Nabil Bentaleb Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Marius Broholm Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Osame Sahraoui Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.14 |
| Olivier Giroud Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ngal'ayel Mukau Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
Nice
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kojo Peprah Oppong DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tiago Gouveia MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Melvin Bard ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Kevin Omoruyi FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Juma Bah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antoine Mendy DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Yehvann Diouf GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Charles Vanhoutte MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Salis Abdul Samed MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Sofiane Diop AMC | 70 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.82 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jeremie Boga FW | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Hichem Boudaoui Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| Tom Louchet Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.00 |
| Isak Jansson Sub | 19 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Morgan Sanson Sub | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 0.48 |